Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 18

NCAAB

St. Bonaventure at Cleveland State
The Bonnies look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 1 to 6 1/2 points. St. Bonaventure is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Vikings favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+6)

Game 741-742: Ball State at Indiana State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 53.768; Indiana State 60.097
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-5 1/2)

Game 743-744: Delaware at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 52.780; Villanova 63.709
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 11
Vegas Line: Villanova by 16
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+16)

Game 745-746: UC-Riverside at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 49.725; Youngstown State 51.385
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (+4 1/2)

Game 747-748: Arkansas-Little Rock at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Little Rock 50.417; Eastern Michigan 55.201
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 5
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-1 1/2)

Game 749-750: St. Bonaventure at Cleveland State (7:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 59.992; Cleveland State 62.359
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 6
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+6)

Game 751-752: Miami (OH) at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 52.904; Xavier 71.925
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 19
Vegas Line: Xavier by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-15 1/2)

Game 753-754: Houston at Arkansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 55.539; Arkansas 68.579
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 13; 143
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 10; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-10); Under

Game 755-756: New Mexico at Arizona State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 63.440; Arizona State 61.761
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+5)

Game 757-758: Stanford at UC-Davis (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 64.241; UC-Davis 51.625
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-10 1/2)

Game 759-760: Norfolk State vs. Drexel (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 42.543; Drexel 56.145
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 15
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+15)

Game 761-762: Drake vs. Mississippi (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 54.759; Mississippi 63.785
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 9
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-6 1/2)

Game 763-764: TCU vs. Virginia (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 55.717; Virginia 61.783
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 6
Vegas Line: Virginia by 8
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+8)

Game 765-766: Winthrop at Marquette (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 49.695; Marquette 66.520
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 17
Vegas Line: Marquette by 18
Dunkel Pick: Winthrop (+18)

Game 767-768: Purdue vs. Temple (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 67.946; Temple 64.622
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 769-770: Western Michigan vs. Iona (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 53.994; Iona 61.976
Dunkel Line: Iona by 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 771-772: Maryland vs. Colorado (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 62.405; Colorado 63.332
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 773-774: Wichita State vs. Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 71.489; Alabama 69.324
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 775-776: Western Kentucky vs. LSU (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 49.732; LSU 53.279
Dunkel Line: LSU by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 777-778: Northwestern vs. Tulsa (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.799; Tulsa 61.999
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 779-780: Seton Hall vs. St. Joseph's (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 63.536; St. Joseph's 59.565
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 4
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 781-782: VCU vs. Georgia Tech (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 59.179; Georgia Tech 59.942
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 783-784: Texas A&M at St. John's (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 67.119; St. John's 64.146
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 785-786: Mississippi State vs. Arizona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 61.904; Arizona 67.981
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 787-788: Lehigh vs. William & Mary (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 50.372; William & Mary 50.164
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Lehigh by 2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+2)

Game 789-790: Eastern Kentucky at Liberty (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 47.110; Liberty 50.097
Dunkel Line: Liberty by 3
Vegas Line: Liberty by 5
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+5)

Game 791-792: CS-Fullerton at Nicholls State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 56.414; Nicholls State 43.889
Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Fullerton (-8 1/2)

Game 793-794: Houston Baptist at UL-Lafayette (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston Baptist 37.941; UL-Lafayette 54.133
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 16
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 18
Dunkel Pick: Houston Baptist (+18)

Game 795-796: Akron at Valparaiso (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 61.741; Valparaiso 57.608
Dunkel Line: Akron by 4
Vegas Line: Akron by 1
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-1)

Game 797-798: Davidson at Duke (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 58.256; Duke 73.304
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15; 153
Vegas Line: Duke by 18 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+18 1/2); Over

Lenny Del Genio

Toledo at Central Michigan
Play: Over

We'll continue to go Over in these MAC games. Toledo has scored 60 or more points each of their last two games while at the same time allowing their opponents' to score 63 or more. No reason to think that this game won't be high scoring as Central Michigan has gone 8-2 Over this season and the last two meetings with the Rockets have both seen a minimum of 73 pts scored. A Toledo offense averaging 41.2 PPG this season should feast on a CMU defense allowing 32.4 PPG.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

Good value here on the road team, who enters off a tough 6-0 loss to Florida Tuesday night. It was the Stars' third straight loss, but tonight they'll be visiting a Colorado team that has lost six of its last seven and eight of its last ten. These teams met two weeks ago and the lamps pretty much stayed lit throughout in what was a 7-6 Dallas win. Note that Colorado was a road favorite in that loss and the Avs are 4-20 revenging a loss as a road favorite. Dallas is 12-3 off a home shutout loss.

Play on: Dallas

Tradeline Sports

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones
Play: Oklahoma State Cowboys -26.5

Friday Night Lights from the Big 12 kicks at 8:00 pm et from Ames when Iowa State hosts Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is 21-5-1 ATS as road favorites and 29-10 ATS as double-digit chalk. The Boyz are also a stellar 48-18-2 ATS as a chalk overall and the favorite in this series is 6-0 ATS the last six meetings.

How long can Oklahoma State lead the nation in takeaways? And how long can they carry their current ATS run - if in fact they don't turn over their opponent? While embarrassing the Red Raiders last Saturday the defense forced three Tech TO's.

Questions surround the Cowboys in this road game. Will they look past the Cyclones on the road Friday night ahead of a critical showdown with Oklahoma that looms in its season finale two weeks from Saturday? Oklahoma State is a near lock to play for its first national championship with two victories to close out the season and it all begins with ISU in this Friday night fight. This is an experienced and well coached team and by all indications the players appear to be well aware of the dangers of taking a well-rested Iowa State team lightly. If the Cowboys can avoid the upset Friday, they'll have two weeks to gear up for their battle with No. 5 Oklahoma in the Bedlam game Dec. 3.

Laying nearly four touchdowns to a well rested Iowa State team is as shaded as the oddsmakers dare go. Especially since the last two defensive efforts by ISU are tainted, and are not nearly as good as the surface peripherals suggest. Holding an undermanned Kansas team to just 10 points and a Texas Tech squad that was suffering from a Sooner hangover won't impress us. And the Cowboys have been nearly perfect in this situation under Gundy, too. They are 10-0 against the spread as road chalk; 8-0 in a road game when the oddsmakers set the total equal to or greater than 63 points; and 7-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70.

The Cyclones have been extremely suspect against good passing teams and their 600 plus rushing yards the last two games come against two of the worst defenses in Div 1 football.

Consider the fact that teams (OSU) are an 84% proposition when they are coming off three consecutive games where they gained 475 yards or more with an experienced quarterback (returning starter), this when the oddsmakers open the pointspread between 21.5 and 31 points on the road chalk. The trend is 37-7 over the last 20 college campaigns and a perfect 6-0 this season.

Thanks to the big missteps by Stanford and Boise State last week, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are suddenly in the driver’s seat for a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. Simply put, if they win out they are in. Expect this team to be mega focused.

Ben Burns

Sabres @ Hurricanes
PICK: Over 5.5

On Wednesday, Carolina lost 4-0 at Montreal. I successfully played against the Hurricanes in that one, while also succesfully playing on the "under" in the same game. At the time, I noted that the 'Canes had been on an extended stretch of "overs" but that I expected it to come to an end against the "stingy" Canadiens, who hadn't been allowing many goals of late. I won't be surprised if we see a higher-scoring affair this evening though.

The Canes, who have still seen the "over" go a profitable 7-1-1 their last nine overall, will now be taking on a Buffalo team which has given up 13 goals its last three games and which has seen the "over" go 4-0-1 its last five.

Note that this season's earlier meeting between these teams produced seven combined goals, 76 shots.

With the "over" at 4-0 the last four times that the Canes scored one goal or less in their previous game, this one could turn into another "shootout." Consider the Over.

Rob Vinciletti

Davidson vs. Duke
Play: Duke -18

Now that the Distraction of Coach K big record setting win is behind them Duke should settle in with a big win and cover here. The Blue Devils have won 28 straight while covering 23 times at home when the total is 145 to 150, including 8 straight the past 3 years. They also seem to Like Friday as they have covered 9 of the last 12. Tonight they oppose a Davidson squad that will play just well enough to not get completely run out of Cameron Indoor. Davidson is an anemic 8-20 ats on the road when the total is 140 to 150 and has failed to ver 18 of the last 25 on the road. This is not the same team from a few years ago when they had S. Curry. Things get back to normal here. Look for Duke to coast in this one.

Jim Feist

Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
Play: Over 67

Oklahoma State (10-0 SU/9-1 ATS) has another powerhouse, no-huddle offense attack behind senior QB 28-year-old Brandon Weeden (31 TDs, 9 INTs) and star junior WR Justin Blackmon. They average 51.7 points, 382 yds passing per game, 172 yards rushing. After beating Texas Tech 66-6 on Saturday, No. 2 Oklahoma State is likely two more victories away from playing for the national title. Weeden completed 31 of 37 passes, threw touchdown passes of 2, 27, 28, 48 and 66 yards as the offense had 637 yards and allowed 270. Oklahoma State remained unbeaten and ended Missouri's 10-game home winning streak with a 45-24 victory with 533 yards and had a 59-24 win over Baylor. Baylor had 622 yards and kept the ball for almost 39 minutes, which means Ok-State had 603 yards and 59 points in only 21 minutes! Oklahoma State is on a 14-9 run over the total. Iowa State has a good offense but the defense can't keep pace with powerful offensive teams, so look for a shootout. Play Oklahoma State/Iowa State Over the total.

JR O'Donnell

Iowa St. +27

JR O going UGLY & NASTY tonight as We will stand in front of the Cowboys @ 8 PM EST tonight as the Oklahoma St Cowboys visit the Iowa St Cyclones. #'s punch in @ OK State is 10-0, ranked in the top 5 and with a win will be 11-0 for the first time in their schools history. They are #2 in scoring (51.7 ppg), #2 in passing (394 yds/g), #45 in rushing (171/g) and #62 in points allowed. Some think that this could be a possible trap game for the Cowboys, as they face their rival Oklahoma in two weeks, and with a win tonight and a victory over OU, they could be headed for the national championship game. Their only shortcoming is that their pass defense is ranked 87th, and their rush defense 86th. Thy are led by "28" year old QB Brandon Weeden who is completing 73% of his passes for 3635 yards and 31 TD.

Iowa State on the other hand is 5-4, #86th in scoring, #77th in passing, #37th in rushing, and 81st in points allowed. The good news is they have had a bye week to get healthy and extra preparation for OSU. They have won back to back games, and need a win to become bowl eligible. This line opened up at 25 and has been bet up to "27" by the public. Cowboys achilles heel is that they rank 98th in the country in total defense, allowing 442 yards per game. Cyclones are 56th in the nation in total offense, and how about these trends. ISU is 17-8 ATS in their last "25", and 5-2 ATS in their last "7" as a home dog of 10.5 or more. "27" points is a lot to cover when you are really thinking about the Sooners.

BANG THE BOOK

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+27, 67)

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are just two games away from the BCS National Championship Game. If they can beat the NCAA football odds in this one against the Iowa State Cyclones on Friday night, they’ll be just one step away from the biggest game in school history.

The Pokes really have to be careful of complacency in this game. They are probably going to have their sights set on Bedlam in two weeks against the Oklahoma Sooners, and if they forget about the current task, they could find themselves in trouble even though they are clearly the better team. Remember, this is the same Iowa State team that went into Lubbock and smashed the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who beat the Sooners the week before. There really isn’t any stopping this offense for the most part. Averaging 565.3 yards per game is third in the nation, and the end result has been 51.7 points per game, second in the land. RB Joseph Randle has 993 rushing yards and 23 total touchdowns on the year, simply stunning numbers for just 10 games. WR Justin Blackmon needs seven receptions to reach the 100 barrier this year, and he has 1,142 yards and 14 TDs. But of course, there is QB Brandon Weeden, the Heisman Trophy candidate. He has 3,635 passing yards and a whopping 73.1 completion percentage, and he has 31 touchdown passes already on the year.

Iowa State has a 5-4 record this year, and that leaves it just one game from bowl eligibility with three to play. Easy, right? Well, maybe not so much… This is the final home game of the season, and the last two games are at the Oklahoma Sooners and Kansas State Wildcats. Needless to say, it’s an uphill battle from here for the Cyclones, though they have won back to back games to get back above the .500 mark. The defense has been challenged all year by the brutal Big XII, and this is no exception. Five teams have already scored at least 33 against ISU, and would surprise us if that number didn’t stretch to eight by the end of the year. The ‘D’ has allowed 29.8 points and 420.0 yards per game thus far. Offensively, the team’s leading touchdown producer, James White has seven scores, less than a third of Randle has accounted for. In fact, the entire offense for Iowa State the whole year has a grand total of 27 touchdowns, four fewer than Weeden has thrown.

Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: There is just a little too much respect right now for the Cowboys. Asking a team to give up 27 points at the beginning of the game is just so much on the road in a conference game. Play on the Cyclones and don’t be surprised if this game ends up being a heck of a lot closer than this spread suggests.

PICK: Iowa State +27

James Patrick Sports

Blackhawks vs. Flames

After limping into the past postseason, the defending Stanley Cup Champions were on the verge of that dreaded first-round sweep at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks. But after being left for dead, down (3-0), the Blackhawks fought all the way back to force a Game 7 before falling in sudden-death overtime in heartbreaking fashion. The Boys from the Windy City just got a bit of payback in their latest outing as they laid out the Canucks in Vancouver (5-1). With the Home team (6-0) in the last (6) meetings of this series and the Blackhawks just (1-4) in their last (5) Friday games, Big Game James Patrick takes to the NHL ice for Friday's complimentary selection, take Calgary Flames.

Jack Jones

Toledo/Central Michigan OVER 74.5

I am siding with the OVER Friday in the Toledo at Central Michigan game. Toledo has been playing in all high-scoring games of late, and I don't believe this total is big enough for them tonight.

The Rockets are scoring 41.8 points and averaging 490.9 yards/game this season, while giving up 32.6 points and 407.2 yards/game. Central Michigan is putting up 31.2 points and 424 yards/game at home this year, and allowing 31.2 points and 419 yards/game on their home turf.

In their last three games, Toledo has combined with their opponents to score 129, 123, and 77 points, respectively. Considering Central Michigan has a solid offense and a terrible defense, I see no reason to believe they won't combine to score 75-plus in this one.

These teams combined to score 73 points last season in a 42-31 Toledo victory. They combined to score 84 points in their last meeting at Central Michigan in '09, with the Chippewas coming out victorious 56-28.

The OVER is 20-7 in Rockets last 27 games as a favorite. The OVER is 8-1 in Chippewas last 9 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

DAVID BANKS

Oklahoma State / Iowa State Over

Weekday college football action closes out on Friday night in Ames, IA where the Iowa State Cyclones (5-4, 4-5 ATS) will try to pull a major upset against the 2nd ranked and heavily favored Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-0, 8-2 ATS); kick-off from Jack Trice Stadium is scheduled to go live on ESPN & ESPN3.com at 8:00 ET.

With 14 starters back from last year’s 11-2 SU & 9-3-1 ATS team, the folks in Stillwater knew a successful campaign was in line heading into the Cowboys 2011 season. After beating their first four opponents - which included an outright win at Kyle Field versus Texas A&M – by an average of 19.3 PPG (3-1 ATS), the Cowpokes let it be known that they were the team to beat in the Big 12. With the Sooners shockingly falling at home as near 30-point favorites to Texas Tech, the Cowboys remain the only undefeated team in the conference as well as one of only two in the entire country (LSU). Head Coach Mike Gundy’s kids have simply torn apart the opposition posting 50 or more points six times en route to cashing their investing backers’ tickets in eight of their overall SU wins. OKST has won and covered each of its five games played away from Boone Pickens Stadium by an average of 24 PPG.

The first year of Head Coach Paul Rhodes stay in Ames saw the Cyclones go 7-6 SU and win the Insight Bowl against Minnesota back in 2009. ISU failed to qualify for bowl eligibility a year ago (5-7), but with 12 starters back at crucial positions for 2011, the ‘Clones had eyes on lacing up their bowling shoes once again. Unfortunately, the injury bug and instability at the QB and RB positions has hampered this team throughout its current campaign. However, a chance at the second season is still within reach with three games remaining on the regular season docket. It will be a steep uphill climb to register at least one more win though being forced to go up against the likes of powerhouses Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State. ISU sports 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS records as a host beating Northern Iowa, Iowa and Kansas while falling to Texas and Texas A&M.

These teams last met back in the ’09 season in Ames where the Cowboys scored the 34-8 road win and cover as 7.5-point favorites to take their second straight from the Cyclones. This will only be the fourth gridiron clash between these programs in the last six years. Oklahoma State checks in a perfect 10-0 ATS the L/10 times it was installed a road chalk, but Iowa State counters with a 5-2 ATS tally the L/7 times it went off the board a home pup of 10.5-points or more. The favorite has covered each of these teams L/6 meetings, but the home based squad has conquered the closing pointspread four of the L/5 times.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Toledo/Central Michigan Under 75

The last thing the books want is to take another beating when a MAC game flies easily over the total. Toledo has played to the over in 3 straight, and it has combined with its opponents to score 123 and 129 points in its last 2 games. The public has seen those two games on national TV, and it is all over the over tonight because of it. The books don't make money by setting bad lines, and I believe they have set a number high enough for Toledo and CMU to fall short of it. The Toledo offense likely won't be quite the same well-oiled machine on the road. The Rockets haven't played away from home in over a month and have averaged just 29 points in road games this season. Central Michigan likely can't wait for this nightmare of a season to be over. It is senior night, however, and I expect the Chippewas to put forth a good effort. The numbers are in our favor as well, considering plays under on any team (CMU in this case) in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 28-34 ppg, provided it is seven or more games into the season and the play on team allowed 37 points or more last game, are 41-17 the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% win rate. It also can't be overlooked that the under is 8-1 in the Rockets' last 9 games as a road favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 10.5 points or more. Bet the Under.

John Ryan

Winthrop vs. Marquette
Play: Marquette -18

5* graded play on Marquette as they take on Winthrop in the First Round of the Paradise Jam being held in St. Thomas, VI and set to to tip at 8:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Marquette will win this game by 18 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 25-5 for 83% winners since 1997. This system has produced a 15-3 ATS over the past five seasons. Play on neutral court teams that are poor pressure defensive teams from last season forcing <=14 turnovers per game and a team from a major division 1-A conference facing a team from a weak division 1-A conference. Of the 30 plays made based on the criteria of this system 15 of them or 52% covered the spread by seven or more points. The sim shows high probabilities that Marquette will hit between 47 and 53% from the field and will attempt between 25 and 29 free throws in this game. In past games where Marquette achieved this level of performance they are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons; 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Marquette.