SPORTS WAGERS
Wichita St +121 over Alabama
The first thing to note here is that the game will be played in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The second thing to note is that the Crimson Tide come in with a 3-0 record and ranked #16 in the nation. So, why the small number for a known and ranked school over a Mid Major? Well, the Tide are not close to being the 16th ranked team in Division 1. Their three wins this year have come against North Florida, Oakland and Maryland. In their first two wins, there was no line on the game because the competition is that brutal. Despite that, the Crimson Tide still had some trouble scoring. They do have a solid defense but the Shockers defense is solid too. There’s always a price to pay when you schedule games early in the year against dregs. It simply does not get one ready to play against much better competition. The Shockers return three starters from last year’s squad that won 29 games. They could certainly represent the MVC in the NCAA tournament with a good core of playmakers and rebounders. A small line on a ranked favorite should always raise red flags and this one is no different. Shockers outright. Play: Wichita State +121 (Risking 2 units).
Steve Janus
Central Michigan +15.5
It has been a disappointing season for Central Michigan, who are just 3-8 heading into their final game of the season. However, this team has continued to fight all season long, and I expect this team to put everything they have on the line in their home finale. This team could easily have a better record than they one they are working with. Three of their last four losses have been decided by 7 points or less, and all but two of their losses have been decided by less than the 15.5 point total set for tonight's game.
Toledo is a very good football team that puts up a lot of points on the offensive end, but they don't play very good defense. That defense is the main reason why I think the Chippewas will keep this game close.
Central Michigan averages 277.9 passing yards behind quarterback Ryan Radcliff, and he should have a field day throwing the ball against a Toledo defense that is giving up an average of 278.5 through the air.
Central Michigan is 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, while Toledo is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater. BET THE CHIPPEWAS +15.5!
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Akron -2 over Valparaiso: The Zips are a team that I am very high on this year. They have been to the MAC Title game 5 years in a row, plus they have won 23+ games 6 years in a row and now they bring back 5 of their top 8 players fram a team that played ND tough in the NCAA Tourney last year. This is a senior laden team that has started out the season in fine fashion by beating Mississippi State on their own floor by 10 points. Impressive. Valpo is off to a 2-1 start, but theyir wins have been vs Holy Cross (Ind) and Georgia Southern and those wins can't hold a candle to winning by 10 points at Mississippi State. Valpo is off a fine 23-12 year, but they did lose 3 of their top 4 scorers and they have no seniors on this team, so it will be tough for them in the early going, especially vs a much more veteran team like that of the Zips. Look for the experience of the Zips to pull away in the 2nd half.
4 UNIT PLAY
Ole Miss/ Drake Under 132: The Drake Bulldogs are not known as a good scoring team as they have finished 228th or worse in scoring each of the last 3 yaers, so for them to put up 83 and 74 points in their first two games is not normal. Well that may be the factb that they haven't faced a defense like the one the Rebels will throw at them. Ole Miss has allowed thier first 2 opponents to score just 38.5 ppg and hit just 28% of their shots from the field, plus they have outrebounded those two opponents by 14.5 rpg. Drake will have a hard time posting alot of points vs this bunch. Drake is 2-0 on the year, and they have allowed just 65 ppg and 38% shooting, but they still haven't been happy with their defense and will look to tighten the screws even more tonight. Despite being 2-0 themselves the rebel Offense is not in full swing as they have averaged just 64.5 ppg and have shot just 37% from the field, but more alarming is the fact that they have shot just 13.5% (7-52) from beyond the arc and they have hit just 58.5 % from the charity stripe. Both teams like to play a slower pace and with both defenses playing well I will look for this one to struggle to hit 120.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Davidson +17.5 over Duke: Im not sure if their could be a flatter spot than the Dukies have today as they are off a HUG#E emotional game vs the Spartans and now must take on a loaded Davidson squad. The Wildcats have been picked to win the Southern Conference and with good reason as they have returned 4 starters and 7 of their 8 top scorers, from last years team thet went 18-15. This team has a lot to prove avter a mediocre year last year and they have started out well winning their first games, including a 74-61 win over a Richmond squad that went to the Sweet 16 last year. Duke is 3-0 on the but they have not been overly impressvive in wins vs Belmont and Michigan State. Belmont is a good team, but I'm not sure they are 5 points better than Davidson,,as Duke was favored by 12.5 over Belmont, but 17.5 in this one. Duke will sort it all out come ACC play, but this is a flat spot for them and Davidson did lose by just 12 and 6 points the last 2 times these teams have faced each other, so they will not be intimidated. Duke by single digits here.
Marquette -18 over Winthrop: These early season tourneys are fun and are usually tuneups for teams to get ready for conference play, but for Marquette it seems to be a bit more. Since 2008, when Buzz Williams took over, the Golden Eagles have not won a championship of any kind. not NCAA, NIT, CBI or any of these preseason tornaments. Buzz is taking this tornament on the Islands very serious as this very deep and talented team look win that elusive championship under Buzz. Withrop had a mediocre year last year and their top scorer has graduated from that team. They have looked very bad in the early going, putting up just 53.5 ppg, whooting just 38 % from the field and a pathetic 61.1 % form the FT line. Marquette has dropped in 95 ppg so far and have hit 58% from the field, while allowing just 52.5 ppg and 35.5% shooting. Withrop is 0-4 in their last 4 games vs Top 25 opponents and they have been outscored by 32.8 ppg in those games. Winthrop just doesn't have enough offense or defense to hang with this higly motivated Golden Eagle squad. Marquette by 25+ here.
Mississippi State +5.5 over Arizona: Last night the Cats were in a dogfight for much of their game with St Johns, But the redmen's youth ended up being their downfall and the Cats escaped with a win. Mississppi state is not a youthful team and they won't fold in the end. Last night the Bulldogs buily a big lead vs Ranked Texas A&M and while the Aggies did claw their way back, it was the experience of the Bulldogs that kept the Aggies at bay enough to get a 9 point win. The Cats may be 4-0 on the year, but they have not looked impressive as their biggest win is by just 10 points and that's not vs competion like they will face today. The Bulldogs have the experience and talent to stay with Arizona in this one and I will call for the outright upset.
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas A&M -1 over St Johns: The Redmen played a really good game vs Arizona last night, but their youth really shone through down the stretch and they ended up losing by 9. St Johns did have an 8 point lead late, but those pesky youthful mistakes did them in. The Aggies had a rough one vs a fired up Bolldog squad yesterday, but this is still a legit top 25 team and they should bounce back today vs this young St John's team that is still learning to play together.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Western Kentucky/ LSU Under 135.5: WKU is a young team with 7 freshmen, but they do know how to play defense, allowing just 62 ppg and 43% shooting. LSU has struggled on defense, but the Hiltoppers have scored just 54 ppg and hit just 30.2% of their shots, so defense should be easy for the Tigers in this one. LSU has put up 80.3 ppg this year, but they are only shooting 41.9% from the floor. The Tigers do like the up and down game, but the 116 ppg that WKU games have averaged tells me they will find a way to slow it down.
UL Lafayette/ Houston Baptist Under 146.5: The Defenses are bad but these teams just don't have enough offense to capitalize. I expect around 135 in this one.