Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 19,2010

Tom Freese

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -6½

Oklahoma City is 7-4 straight up this year. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS when their opponent scored more than 100 points in their last game. The Thunder are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games overall and they are 1-4 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Celtics are 9-2 straight up this year. Boston is 10-4 ATS their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. Boston is 7-2 ATS at home vs. the Thunder.

Bryan Leonard

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -11

The Bobcats on the surface look to be improving winning 3 of their last 4 games. But those victories came against Toronto, Washington and Minnesota, three of the worst teams in the league. The only other win they own on the season was against another bottom feeder in the New Jersey Nets. This team has yet to win a game against a projected playoff caliber squad posting an 0-5 record with a 1-3-1 spread mark.

Miami had a full three days off before their last game and the extra practice did wonders as they pounded the Suns 123-96. Chris Bosh spoke about the valuable practice time after that victory. Because of that we expect the Heat to play much better than they have shown thus far. Miami is just 3-2 straight up on this six game homestand and tomorrow they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies. We expect the Heat to leave the friendly confines with a confidence building blowout victory.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -9

The Hornets are 8-1-1 ATS in all games this season, and a perfect 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Going back to last season, the Hornets are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Cleveland is still trying to figure things out without LeBron James, and it hasn't helped that point guard Mo Williams has been hampered by a groin injury. I'm going to ride the best covering team in the NBA on its home floor tonight. Lay the points.

Jim Feist

Knicks vs. Warriors
Play: Under 221

Golden State is still an uptempo team, just not as explosive as in recent years. As a result they are overvalued by oddsmakers on totals, on an 8-2 run under the total. With a total of 203 at Milwaukee, they lost 79-72! The Knicks come to town with an uptempo reputation, but are also overvalued, on a 5-3 run under the total. This is the Knicks third straight game on the road, and 3,000 miles from home, which can take a toll on offense. Play the Warriors/NY Knicks Under the total.

Marc Lawrence

Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Houston Rockets

The Rockets travel north of the border to meet the Raptors in Toronto Friday evening in a matchup of teams off opposite results. That occurred when Houston dropped a 17-point decision at Oklahoma City Wednesday evening while Toronto was busy upsetting the Sixers in Philadelphia the same evening. With the Raptors 2-9 ATS in this series when playing of a win, including 1-5 ATS on this floor, look for the Rockets to improve on it's 37-12-1 ATS mark on the road in games off a loss versus an opponent off a straight up underdog win here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston.

EZWINNERS

Boise State Broncos -30.5

The Broncos need to keep rolling and winning by large margins as they hope to impress the pollsters to help their ranking with the BCS computers. Boise State is a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their last four home games against the Fresno State Bulldogs and I see no reason why those streaks won't continue this year. This thirty point spread may seem high, but Boise has won those four meetings by an average of 34 points per game and this is the best Boise State team that they have ever had. Fresno State doesn't have Ryan Mathews to lean on this year and the Bulldogs are only 1-8 against the spread in their last nine Friday games. Lay the points.

James Patrick Sports

Knicks vs. Warriors

Amare Stoudemire (now reunited with old Suns coach Mike DAntoni) and Charlotte PG Raymond Felton nice consolation prizes in the Free Agency sweepstakes. With the dysfunctional pieces from the Isiah regime now discarded, and the addition of a potential dominator in Stoudemire, DAntonis system should at least get the Knicks within sight of .500 mark. New York lost to Golden State their last time out on the Madison Square Garden floor. Big Game James Patrick's Friday complimentary selection is New York Knicks.

Sac Lawson

Mid. Tenn -4 vs Campbell

Interesting line, no doubt about it. Both of these teams finished tied for first in their respective leagues last season. Obviously Campbell in the Atlantic Sun, and MTSU in the Sun Belt. And both of these teams have lost a similar number of key players from last year's team. Simply put, these two are eerily similar.... But at a different level.

This game is being played on a neutral court, obviously, but when it comes to playing away from their home gym Campbell's best win last season was against Lipscomb. We're talking about a backcourt heavy team, who depends on jumpers, and as we've seen time and time again... That's going to cause for huge discrepancies between home and road performances. We're talking about a team that lost their leading scorer, but returned a couple role playing guards. Aside from that, it's a bunch of fresh faces that will have to focus on fundamental defense to stay competitive early on, because they certainly don't have a go-to scorer.

On the other side.. MTSU really doesn't have much returning either. But what they do have is in the backcourt, similar to Campbell. So what's the difference?

This is going to sound a bit square, but stick with me. The difference is the recruiting, plain n simple. When you play in the Atlantic Sun, the recruits aren't as good (obviously). Now that doesn't mean the teams aren't as good, it just means it takes longer for newer players to create a good team. At MTSU, in a reloading season, they still have one hell of a JUCO recruiting class to lean on, and some seriously talented freshman as well. Simply put, MTSU doesn't necessarily need to gel in order to be decent, because they've got the talent and athleticism to put them in the top 150, regardless of their ability to work together.

Sounds basic, take the team with the better recruits, bigger name. But at the end of the day, that's what is going to be successful in this matchup. Campbell's returning players are backcourt guys used to distributing the rock, or spotting up for three. They simply don't have a guy that can create his own looks, and early in the season when team unity isn't at it's peak.. A small school like this simply has got to have that go-to guy to be successful. Campbell doesn't. Take MTSU for 1 unit.

Frank Jordan

Fresno State vs. Boise State
Play: Boise State -30

Boise State is number four team in the land with a 9-0 record as they host Fresno State on the Smurf Turf. Fresno State is 6-3 on the year and 4-2 in WAC play. On the road Fresno State has had some success winning three of their four games away from home. Fresno State is coming off a tough one point loss to Nevada who is ranked 21st in the nation. Look for Boise State to have their way with Fresno State.

Jorge Gonzalez

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -9½

The Los Angeles Lakers are back on the winning track coming off a 103-90 victory over the Detroit Pistons. The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a rare 113-111 win over the undermanned Los Angeles Clippers. The T-Wolves are 0-11 after winning a game in which they made fewer baskets than their opponents. Minnesota’s defense is almost non-existent giving up almost 110 points per game and will not be able to keep up with the 112 points that Kobe and Co. are putting up. The Lakers have beaten Minnesota in 12 straight meeting by an average of 12.5 points per game. The road team has covered the last four meetings. Take the traveling Lakers here in this spot.

SPORTS WAGERS

Memphis –2½ over WASHINGTON

John Wall is questionable for tonight’s game but Wall or no Wall this line is completely out of whack. We’ve been saying it since day one of the year – this Memphis team is flying completely under the radar and their 4-8 is frankly unrepresentative of their talent level or the way they’ve been playing. Check out the opponents the Grizzlies have lost to: the Hawks, Lakers, Warriors, Suns, Mavs, Celtics, Magic and Blazers. All those teams are considered playoff teams and while wins against those teams are a must to make the playoffs in the West they’ve helped create a sleeping giant; one that should have no problem against the dregs of the league. The Wizards are coming off a blowout loss to the Celtics that did nothing to help their point differential, one which ranks dead last in the East at -8.7, a frightening statistic that indicates blowout losses are going to be the norm this season. The Wizards allow opponents to shoot a staggering 49% from the field, good for 29th in the league, rank second to last in the East in defense, and are second in the Association in turnovers. The Wiz are one of the most untrustworthy teams in the NBA and when they face opponents with the advantage at every position save for point-guard we’re going to look seriously at fading them. Memphis is on a four game losing streak with a game against the Heat tomorrow, which they will most probably lose. The coaches and players know it’s imperative to get a win tonight to stop the bleeding which means maximum effort all around. Look for the Grizz to bury the Wizards in what shouldn’t be a close affair. Play: Memphis –2½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Los Angeles +1.09 over BUFFALO

The Sabres are playing a little bit better these days but they’ve caught some teams at the right time and took advantage. When they beat the Canucks earlier this week it was the Canucks fourth road game in a row after playing in three Canadian cities including Toronto and Montreal. Fact is, the Sabres have gone 11 consecutive games without winning in regulation time and what that means is they could just as easily be on a 11-game losing streak coming into this one. Now they’ll face the Kings, one the best teams in the business coming off consecutive losses in which they allowed 11 goals against. Look for the Kings to get back to basics and play the style that saw them win 12 of its first 15 games. Also note that this is the Kings first game of a four-game trip that will take them to Boston, Ottawa and Montreal after this one and team’s very often play its best game on the first game of a trip. Kings are too good to go into a sustained funk and they’re as live a pooch as any on the board today. Play: Los Angeles +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

DETROIT –1½ +1.38 over Minnesota

Rarely will you see us laying 1½-pucks in a hockey game because it’s a losing proposition and in fact, this is the first time this season we’re doing so. It’s warranted here because the Minnesota Wild are the biggest imposters in the NHL. Here’s a team that is 9-6-0-2 and they’re extremely fortunate to have two wins, let alone nine. The Wild have won two straight and five of its last seven and they were the second best team on the ice by a wide margin in every single game. In its last win over Anaheim they scored two absolute fluke goals to win it in OT, 2-1. In the Wild’s recent wins over San Jose, Tampa, Calgary and Columbus they were dominated in each game yet they came out smelling like roses. This intruder has had a genie following them around all season long and that’s very likely to end here. Jose Theodore gets the start against Jimmy Howard. The Red Wings are destroying everything in sight these days. They’re won four in a row and seven of eight. Over its last three games, the Red Wings have outscored the opposition 16-6. The Red Wings have 15 guys that can score while the Wild has one. Detroit has received goals from 16 players and has received eight two-goal games this season from seven players. This is a complete and utter mismatch and it’ll be revealed that way on the scoreboard. Play: Detroit -1½ +1.38 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Rangers +1.16 over COLORADO

The more one watches the Rangers, the more impressed you can’t help being. This team is determined and they’re playing with as much grit and heart as any team in the league. They’ve won three of its last four with only loss over that stretch coming against the Bruins in a game they were not outplayed in. Also note that the Blue Shirts have won six of eight games on the road and they’re as healthy now as they’ve been all year. The Av’s are another team that works hard and what they lack in talent they make up for in work ethic. However, this is a beatable team because of a defense that is extremely vulnerable to a strong forchecking team like the Rangers. The Avalanche needs tremendous goaltending to win games because they give up more quality scoring chances than just about any team in NHL. They can score goals but they’ve been living somewhat of a charmed life thus far. The Rangers have been focused all season long and there’s nothing to suggest that focus and hard work will be missing tonight. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.16 (Risking 2 units).

Dave Price

1 Unit on Houston Rockets -1.5

Toronto is a poor 10-24 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. If the Raptors are valued as a home dog of 3 points or less, they are an even worse 4-14 ATS the last 3 seasons. Off back-to-back losses, look for Houston to get back in the win column tonight. Lay the points.

Info Plays

3* on New Jersey Nets +3.5

Reasons the Nets cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites (SACRAMENTO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record. This is a 66-28 ATS System hitting 70.2% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 3-0 this season.

2.) The Kings are 0-6 in their last 6 games, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Sacramento is clearly in rebuilding mode again this season. The Nets are a very profitable 4-1 ATS on the road this year. Bet New Jersey on the road.

Jack Jones

Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing much better than their 4-9 record would indicate. Minnesota has won 3 of their last 5 games and are on a 5-1 ATS run over their last 6. Each of their last 3 losses have come by 6 points or less, all on the road against the Lakers, Hawks and Bobcats. The Timberwolves have played the Lakers tough here of late as well. Each of their last 3 losses to the Lakers have come by 9 points or less, including a 94-99 road loss at Los Angeles on November 9th.

The Timberwolves have two stars in Kevin Love and Michael Beasley. Love is second in the league with 9 double-doubles this season, and put up 23 points and 24 rebounds against the Lakers in their last meeting. Michael Beasley is on an absolute tear right now, hitting the game-winner against the Clippers in their last game. Beasley has averaged 32.6 PPG during their 3-2 run since November 10th, including an average of 9.4 PPG in the fourth quarter during that stretch. He is the first Minnesota player since Kevin Garnett to score at least 25 points in five straight games. The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. This will not be a blowout tonight. Bet Minnesota Friday.