Black Widow
1* on Golden State Warriors -3.5
Golden State is showing excellent value tonight as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the New York Knicks. The Warriors will be hungry to hit the floor tonight as they come into this game on 3 days' rest, while the Knicks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. New York won't be able to match the effort they get from this young Golden State team. The Warriors are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, winning by 7.8 points/game on average. New York is allowing a whopping 107.9 points/game on the road this year, once again not getting it done on the defensive end. Golden State is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Warriors are 26-7 ATS (+18.3 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings with New York. Take the Warriors and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Panthers -4.5
After a hard-fought overtime win over Illinois last night, Texas won't have enough left in the tank to conquer this experienced Pittsburgh team. Plus, Pittsburgh will be out for a little revenge. Last November, an experienced Texas team defeated Pittsburgh 78-62 in the championship game of the CBE classic. With four starters lost from that Texas squad, I expect the tides to turn tonight. Now Pittsburgh is the more experienced team with 4 starters back from a squad that went 25-9 a season ago. The Longhorns are just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall. They have also struggled against the Big East to the tune of 2-7 ATS in their last 9. It is also important to note that Texas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Lay the points with Pittsburgh tonight.
Hollywood Sports
Iowa at Xavier
PLAY: Xavier
Only Xavier and Michigan State have been in the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament over the last three seasons. Chris Mack has built an outstanding program at Xavier. While he lost Jordan Crawford from last season's club after he left early for the NBA, he still has many contributors back including three starters from last season's 26-9 team. The Musketeers (2-0) come off a underachieving performance where they let Indiana-Purdue University take them to overtime before they pulled away in overtime for a 76-66 win. They should overwhelm an Iowa team (1-1) that has already lost to South Dakota State by a 79-69 score. Fran McCaffery is in his first year in Iowa City after his successful stint at Siena. Here is what he said about the team he inherited: "Last year?s team wasn?t very experienced, nor were we very deep, and nor were we very big. That?s not really a great combination." Problem for McCaffery is that while his team has another year of experience, this unit is basically the same one he criticized that was just 10-22 last season. Xavier has covered their last ten encounters with teams from the Big Ten. They are good proposition here. Lay the points with Xavier.
Ross Benjamin
Houston @ Toronto
Play: Houston -1.5
The Rockets are a solid 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games as an away favorite of 7.0 or less when coming off of a SU loss. Contrarily the Raptors are a dismal 0-9 SU&ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog of 3.5 or less when coming off a SU win in which they scored 108 points or less.
Any non-conference away favorite that's coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus an opponent coming off of an away underdog SU win by 3 points or more while covering by 13.0 or less, and they are playing in Game 49 of the season or before is 7-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The favorite has won those 7 games by an average of 10.0 PPG. Play on the Houston Rockets as my free selection of the night.
Karl Garrett
Fresno State at BOISE STATE (-30')
Free play is to lay it all night long with the Boise State Broncos.
The numbers in this series all point towards a Broncos blowout, and I will not buck them! - no pun intended.
Boise State has won and covered the last 4 series meetings, and 8 of the last 9 overall. In fact, the average margin of victory in the last 4 series showdowns on the blue carpet have seen the host win by an average of 35 points per game!
It has been ugly that is for sure, and it will be again, as Kellen Moore looks to boost his Heisman credentials, and the Broncos look for another blowout win to try and impress the pollsters.
Boise State is a perfect 9-0 straight up, and they have covered the number in 7 of those 9 wins to date.
Lay it as the Broncos run over the Bulldogs once again.
2♦ BOISE STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Milwaukee (-3') at PHILADELPHIA
For today’s complimentary selection, I’ll take the Bucks minus the points at Philadelphia in NBA action.
I’m willing to give Milwaukee a mulligan for Tuesday’s 118-107 home loss to the Lakers. First, it was the Lakers (who, in case you didn’t know, are pretty damn good). Second, the Lakers were coming off their first two losses of the season, so you know L.A. was going to take that contest VERY seriously.
The Bucks had preceded the Lakers loss with three dominating victories over three pretty decent teams in the Knicks (107-80), Hawks (108-91 on the road) and Warriors (79-72). And when you break down Milwaukee’s schedule you’ll see that since a shocking 96-85 loss at Minnesota in the second game of the season, it has won five (Bobcats, Pacers, Knicks, Hawks, Warriors) and lost four (Blazers, Hornets, Lakers and Celtics in overtime). Translation: The Bucks are beating teams they’re supposed to beat and losing to superior competition (the last four teams to beat Milwaukee have a combined record of 35-10).
Well, the 76ers certainly don’t qualify as a team that’s superior to the Bucks. Philadelphia is 2-10 on the season and has dropped five games in a row. During the losing skid, the Sixers have been outscored by an average margin of 104-93, tallying just 86, 93, 93 and 90 points in the last four games. Compare those numbers to Milwaukee, which has scored at least 107 points in three of its last four contests and held all but two opponents – the Lakers and Celtics (in overtime) – to 96 points or less. In fact, take out the L.A. and Boston contests and Milwaukee is yielding just 87.7 ppg!
The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine Bucks-76ers clashes, and Milwaukee is on ATS runs of 40-19-3 overall, 42-19-2 against the Eastern Conference, 22-7-1 on the road, 16-4-2 against the Atlantic Division, 9-3-1 on Friday and 21-7 after a SU loss. On the other hand, Philadelphia is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four overall, 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 at home and 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 against the East.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Stephen Nover
Houston at TORONTO (+1')
The Raptors are hosting Houston, perhaps the most disappointing team in the NBA so far. The Rockets are 3-8, which is one fewer victory than the Timberwolves have.
Houston is off its worst loss of the season, a 116-99 road defeat against Oklahoma City. The Rockets rank 28th on defense and are plagued by key injuries. Center Yao Ming is out and so is point guard Aaron Brooks. They haven't been adequately replaced. Kyle Lowry and undrafted rookie Ishmael Smith are not NBA-starting caliber point guards.
Houston is 2-5 on the road. This marks the Rockets' third game in four days and fourth in six days.
Toronto should be refreshed and confident back from a four-game road trip where it went 2-2, including upsetting Orlando. The Raptors covered three of four during the trip.
The Raptors have owned the Rockets in Toronto winning the past three times with the average victory margin being by 16.3 points.
2♦ TORONTO
Derek Mancini
Houston (-1') at TORONTO
I'm not fooled by the Raptors win over the 76ers Wednesday. This is still the same inconsistent, soft, and offensively challenged Toronto team. It doesn't get any easier tonight, as the Rockets come to town off an ugly loss, and looking for the bounce back. Let's not forget, we're talking about a Raptors team that's 4-15 ATS in their L19 home games.
Concerned about the Rockets injuries? Don't be. The injuries were built into this line already, because if Yao and Brooks were playing, the Rockets would be favored by a lot more than we're seeing right now. Love how Luis Scola has picked up the slack, averaging almost 23 ppg and 10 boards/game. He will be the Raptors toughest match up because their soft euro center, Bargani, won't be a problem, and he won't have to guard Evans on the other end, saving energy. Battier, a premier on the ball defender, will take care of Weems, and I just don't see Bargnani having another 30 point night.
Rockets may be down, but don't count them out, because they're still a good team that happens to be dealing with injuries... What's Toronto's excuse? The Raptors are much healthier, but their record and stats are both worse than the Rockets. Look for Houston to bounce back big after a disappointing loss at the Thunder Wednesday. Lay it with the Rockets over the Raptors Friday.
2♦ HOUSTON
Michael Cannon
LA Lakers at MINNESOTA (+9')
Take the points with Minnesota tonight at home over the Lakers for your free Friday winner.
Kevin Love and Michael Beasley have been beasts for the Timberwolves so far this season and you can bet they’re going to be up for this visit from the defending champs.
Beasley is averaging 33 ppg in his last five while Love has turned into the second coming of Bill Russell with the way he’s been cleaning the boards.
Don’t think the presence of the Lakers is going to keep Love bottled up because he had 24 rebounds in the first meeting this year.
The Lakers know this is an easy win for them, so there’s no need to go all out. These are the types of games that are bad for their followers because they can win without expending maximum effort, which makes it tough for them to cover.
Take the points with Minnesota as they stay within the number at home.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell,
L.A. Lakers at MINNESOTA (+9')
For my comp selection, the Lakers are wrapping up a three-game road trip tonight in Minnesota and looking for their 13th straight win over the Timberwolves. Now I’m not saying that Minnesota is going to come out and upset the Lakers, but this is just way too many points to pass up with a T’Wolves team that is playing much better basketball.
Minnesota needs to contain Kobe Bryant who has scored 30 points or more in four straight road games. He had 33 in the Lakers’ 99-94 home win over Minnesota on Nov. 9, but the T’Wolves got the cover as 16 ½-point underdogs. In fact, the T’Wolves have cashed in three of the last four meetings overall.
Minnesota is the only team to hold the Lakers to less than 100 points in a game this season and they have the young legs to give Los Angeles some problems if they can get out and run some.
The T’Wolves are playing decent lately and getting great play from Kevin Love in the middle, who had 23 points and 24 rebounds against the Lakers back on Nov. 9, and Michael Beasley, who has averaged 32.6 points in their last five games.
Minnesota has won three of their last five games and they have been strong at the betting window, cashing in five of their last six. The only non-cover came on Wednesday when they beat the Clippers 113-111 but failed to cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Beasley had 33 points and seven boards while Love had 24 points and 14 rebounds.
The Lakers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against teams with losing records and 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with winning percentages below .400.
Los Angeles is thinking about getting home and will let the T’Wolves hang around in this one. Look for a close 6 or 7 point game when all is said and done. Grab the points and play Minnesota at home.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Joel Tyson
San Antonio at UTAH (-2')
San Antonio brings a 4-0 straight up mark, and a 3-0-1 road spread mark into Utah this evening, but my money will be on the Jazz to play the sweet music over the Spurs.
After losing 4 in a row both straight up and against the spread to the Spurs, Utah is on a 4 game series win and cover streak versus San Antonio, and the home team in the series has covered a whopping 20 of the last 27 meetings.
This one is close to a pick, and the Jazz are just so strong at home, so I say take Utah to hand San Antonio their first road loss of the season.
5♦ UTAH
Craig Davis
Chicago (+5) at DALLAS
Tonight I'm going for the jugular. I'm going 3-0 with three, 40-dime winners, one in college football, one in college hoops and one in the NBA. Three winners, one low price. Get on board now for a long term package and get all my selections for this weekend, including another 100-dime winner on Sunday and another 50-dime winner on Saturday.
Today's free play is on the Chicago Bulls over Dallas.
I don't care what history says... I don't care about the fact that Dallas has beaten Chicago 12 of the last 13 games (in Dallas)or the fact that Chicago is 1-3 on the road this year. I care about Dallas playing sloppy basketball in the second half vs. New Orleans, and I think that's going to carry over to tonight.
Dallas was averaging just 12 turnovers per game before Tuesday's loss to the Hornets when they had 8 turnovers in the third quarter alone. Jason Kidd has had a great career, but I'm starting to get the feeling this game has passed him by, and he's definitely not the same defensive PG he used to be.
Unless the Mavs run a zone defense to stop Derrick Rose, he's going to go for 30+ points and run circles around the Mavs by himself. And he has a great supporting cast around him, in case the Mavs do try to run some zone up front.
Joakim Noah is going to be tough to match up against and if Luol Deng is hitting from outside, it's going to draw some of the bigger Dallas defenders out there to guard him.
This game promises to be a fun game to watch and should come down to the wire, but I just think the Mavs are still getting too much respect from Vegas and are laying too many points here. I'll take the Bulls plus the number as my free play of the day.
2♦ CHICAGO
Scott Delaney
St. Bonaventure (+3) at CORNELL
I'm normally wary of Big Red inside Newman Arena, but I like my chances with the Atlantic 10 entry in this game, as the Bonnies boast NBA-prospect Andrew Nicholson, one of the best big men in the conference.
He comes in after popping a double-double for the Bonnies in a 77-64 win over Arkansas-Little Rock, netting 25 points and grabbing 11 rebounds.
He happens to be the school's all-time leader in field-goal percentage, evidenced by his efforst of 8-for-12 and 8-for-13 the his first two games this season.
I don't think Cornell can match this kid's intensity, and will struggle to slow him down.
Overall I like the make up of this team much better than I do Cornell's, even though Big Red has won 12 straight at home.
St. Bonnies is a nightmare matchup for Cornell, particularly in the paint. Take the road pup here.
1♦ ST. BONNIES
Chris Jordan
Missouri State at TULSA (+2)
I'm going to side with Tulsa tonight.
Tough turnaround for the Missouri State Bears, who will play their third game in four days, and now get an athletic Tulsa team that is much like the Tennessee team they just lost to.
Missouri State played, and beat, Arkansas State on Tuesday, lost a very hard-fought game to Tennessee on Wednesday and will now take on a Golden Hurricane team that has had a couple days to rest since blasting Oral Roberts, 83-68.
After pretty much dominating Arkansas State, all five Bears starters played at least 31 minutes against Tennessee.
I know Tulsa lost two key starters from last year, but it is still tabbed to finish in the top third of the Conference USA this season, thanks to a roster that has plenty of talent and role players that make up a solid team for this season.
The key to wearing down the already weary Bears tonight will be 6-foot-4 senior guard Justin Hurtt who can push the tempo for the Hurricane, whether he's handling the rock to create, or firing from beyond the arc, where he drained a team-high 78 threes.
Tulsa boasts a talented froncourt, so an inside-outside game to keep the Bears tiring in the first half, will certainly make things easier for this team down the stretch.
I'm playing the home underdog tonight.
4♦ TULSA
Stephen Nover
Kentucky at PORTLAND (+6)
Your free winner is on Portland plus the points against mighty Kentucky.
Kentucky isn't tall enough or experienced enough to dominate in this foreign setting, especially with the Wildcats' minds on the upcoming Maui Invitational.
The Wildcats open tournament play on Monday versus Oklahoma. Kentucky is very inexperienced and could have a hole in the middle after center Enes Kanter was declared ineligible by the NCAA for receiving improper benefits.
Sure Kentucky is Kentucky. They just reload. They are 12th-ranked. But Portland is a top-65 team coming off a 21-win season. Led by Jake Stohl, the Pilots are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation.
The Pilots are 28-for-55 (51 percent) shooting 3-pointers this season. They are 3-0 straight-up and against the spread. They've defeated Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 20, UC Davis by 15 and Florida Atlantic by 14.
Portland has had the advantage of playing three games. Kentucky has only played once.
1♦ PORTLAND
Jeff Benton
Friday’s freebie comes from the NBA, as we’ll lay the chalk with the Hornets against Cleveland.
The record shows that the Cavaliers went 3-0 SU and ATS in their last road trip. But it also shows that those three wins were by a total of 14 points against the following opponents: Philadelphia, Washington and New Jersey. Combined record of those three teams: 9-24. Throw in a 20-point loss in Toronto in their first game on the highway, and the Cavaliers’ four road opponents have a combined mark of 12-33.
That’s in pretty stark contrast to the Hornets’ 9-1 record, which includes six wins in six tries in the Big Easy. And even after coming up just short of cashing in Wednesday’s 99-97 win over Dallas as a 4½-point home favorite, New Orleans is an NBA-best 8-1-1 ATS.
In their six home wins, the Hornets have poured in 100 points per game (on 48.2 percent shooting) and allowed 91 ppg (on 45 percent shooting). That defensive number is very impressive, especially when you compare it to what Cleveland has done defensively in opponents’ gyms: Despite winning three of four road games, the Cavs are yielding 102.5 ppg on 47 percent shooting.
New Orleans, which is coming off a three-game stretch in which it faced the Blazers and a home-and-home series against the Mavericks, has played just one weak opponent all season, and that was the Clippers. Result of that one: Hornets 101, Clippers 82. Expect a similar score in this contest, particularly since the Cavaliers play tomorrow at San Antonio and thus will throw in the towel in the fourth quarter if they’re down big.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS