Pregame.com (Cheat Sheet pick) = UNDER 189.5 - Total of the Day
Magic: Orlando has already had to deal with several players missing time due to injuries, sickness, or suspension. Of their 12 games this season, the Magic have used 8 different starting lineups. Despite this, the Magic are still 9-3 SU, including a current 3 game winning streak. Orlando has 7 players averaging double digits in PTS. C Dwight Howard leads the way, with over 18 PPG and 10 RPG. Orlando has F Rashard Lewis back in the lineup after serving his suspension, and he nearly had a triple double in his 2nd game back. Orlando is counting on PG Jason Williams to play well as he fills in for Jameer Nelson over the next month.
PROJECTED SCORE: 88
Orlando is 5-14 ATS last 19 meetings in Boston.
Under is 6-1 last 7 road games.
G Jameer Nelson (knee) is out.
Celtics (-7, O/U 189.5): This is a big revenge game for Boston, as the last time these two faced off on in Boston the Magic eliminated the Celtics from the playoffs. The Celtics started off the year 6-0 SU, but have gone 3-3 since that start. Boston has already lost 2 games at home SU, and are only 3-4 ATS at home. The Celtics are playing good defense, as they are one of only 3 teams allowing fewer than 90 PPG. Boston has all 5 starters averaging double digits in PTS, with F Paul Pierce leading the way. Tonight's game against the Magic represents the smallest spread the Celtics have faced at home this season.
PROJECTED SCORE: 91 Celtics are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 6-0 last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.
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Dunkel Pick: Under 190 for Orlando/Celtics game
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Just checked the Greek sports book and the line is now 192 for the total
so there may be good value in picking the under now for these teams since
these other cappers have it under 189.5/under 190
8)
Randall the Handle
Florida +2.34 over DETROIT
After going into Buffalo and slamming the Sabres and Ryan Miller, one has to trust that the Panthers are feeling pretty good. This team is not intimidated by anyone or any place and they work their butts off every shift of every game. The Sabres may have taken them a lightly and they paid the price. What I do know is that Florida has won six of its last nine. They’re healthier than they’ve been all year and they’re scoring goals. In fact, the Panthers have scored 14 times over its last three games including six in Buffalo. The Red Wings had won three in a row before a 3-1 loss to at home to the Stars. They very seldom see Florida and that can only work in our favor, as the Panthers will be a lot more jacked up playing at the Joe than the Red Wings will be playing Florida at home. Furthermore, Detroit will play in Montreal tomorrow on Hockey Night in Canada and there’s a great possibility that game is more on their minds than this one. Anyway, the tag here on the Panthers is way too high and has to be considered one of the biggest overlays of the season thus far. Play: Florida +2.32 (Risking 2 units).
NY Islanders +1.20 over MINNESOTA
The Wild are a frustrated hockey team that is pressing way too much and that’s beginning to carry the burden of losing on its back. This is a team that struggles miserably to score goals and therefore they’re not a trustworthy favorite. Meanwhile, the Islanders just keep rolling. They have just two regulation losses over its last 13 games. Those two losses were in Buffalo and New Jersey, the latter by a score of 2-1. The Islanders are playing great hockey, they’re loose and they’re having fun. This is a young team on a roll and they can’t wait to get back on the ice. Play: NY Islanders +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
John Ryan
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +5.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Memphis as they take on Philadelphia set to start at 7:05 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Memphis will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 74-38 ATS for 66% winners since 2004. Play on road teams that are struggling teams getting outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game facing an opponent after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games. AiS shows a 90% probability that Memphis will shoot between 48 and 51% from the field. Note that they are a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they make 48% to 51% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Over the past 2 seasons, Philly has not done well in taking care of teams that should defeat on a consistent basis. Note that Philly is just 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing against a bad team posting a win percentage of 25% to 40% over the last 2 seasons. 76ers HC Jordan is just 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in home games after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1996. Take Memphis.
Akron vs. Bowling Green
Play: Akron +10.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Akron as they take on Bowling Green set to start at 5:30 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Akron will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-20 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on dogs after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game and returning 8+ offensive starters + QB facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. This is a game for a possible upset and is supported by the following MONEY LINE system that has gone 34-43 for 44% winners, but has made a whopping 49 units in profits since 2004. The average play has been a +271 dog. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game and after a loss by 28 or more points. This system is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and being paid $270 for every winning $1.00 hand played. That will never happen in any casino ever, but this system has produced very real profits for more than 5 seasons. AiS also projects a 90% probability that Akron will win the turnover stat. Note that Bowling Green is just 4-15 against the money line (-21.0 Units) when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992. Take Akron.
Matt Fargo
Syracuse at North Carolina
Prediction: Syracuse
Why is the 25th ranked team favored over the 4th ranked team on a neutral floor? That is probably a question a lot of people are asking and because of that, the public is loading up on North Carolina. The Tar Heels won it all last season, but of the seven players who logged more than four minutes in the championship game, only Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard remain, and five freshmen have been added. The Tar Heels have won their first four games but they have been sloppy in doing so. Offensively and defensively, North Carolina has been solid, outshooting opponents by 17.7 percent but it is averaging 19.5 turnovers and that is a telltale sign of a team still young and still learning. Last night was the first game away from Chapel Hill for the Tar Heels and they gave it up 19 times. I expect a lot of those mistakes to continue not only tonight but through most of the early part of the season until some chemistry is found. Since losing its exhibition game to LeMoyne College (my alma mater thank you), Syracuse has looked like a much better team and that horrible effort against the Division II Dolphins woke this team up. Taking out Robert Morris and Albany were no big deal but the Orange manhandled California last night and the Golden Bears are a very solid team. Syracuse shot 57.1 percent from the floor while holding California to 40 percent. The zone defense that Syracuse utilizes is tough to prepare for and the Golden Bears had no answers and I don?t think North Carolina is going to have any answers either, especially preparing in less than a day. Head coach Roy Williams can get ready there is no doubt about that but getting his young players to put it on the court is a different story. Syracuse falls into a great situation for this game as well. Play on favorites that outscored opponents by eight or more ppg last season, after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games this season. This situation is 57-22 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. The Orange are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 November games and again, this has a lot to do with its zone defense as these non-conference teams simply cannot get in enough preparation time. Also, they are 14-5 ATS in all road games following a win by 20 or more points. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 17-38 ATS in its last 55 games allowing between 75 and 80 points. 3* Syracuse Orange
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -6.5
Bottom Line: Losing Jameer Nelson really hurts the Magic, especially since they don't have Rafer Alston to step in anymore. Jason Williams isn't the same caliber of player at this stage in his career, especially on the defensive end. Boston will be out for revenge after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Magic last season and it will have Kevin Garnett in the lineup this time around. The Magic are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 meetings at Boston. Look for the Celtics to send a message with a big win and cover tonight.
Karl Garrett
Akron at BOWLING GREEN -10'
G-Man going to the MAC tonight for a play on the Falcons of Bowling Green.
BG is in contention for a bowl bid if they can take care of business tonight, and against a Zips team that has failed 3 of their last 4, and 7 of their last 9 overall as the road dog, chances look strong for that happening.
Bowling Green has the deadly combo of Tyler Sheehan at QB, and Freddie Barnes at WR. Sheehan is 4th in the nation in total offense, and his partner is the # 1 wide receiver in receptions this season!
Akron will be starting a true freshman at quarterback in Nicely, and I highly doubt things will end "nicely" for him this evening.
Bowling Green has won the last pair in this rivalry, and they have covered the last 3 overall against Akron.
The Falcons close the sale in convincing fashion tonight against the outmanned Zips.
5♦ BOWLING GREEN
Sports Gambling Hotline
Eastern Michigan at TOLEDO -19'
5-2 the last 7 days with our free plays.
Tonight in the MAC, we will ride the Rockets of Toledo to snap their 3-game straight up, and against the spread losing streak as they paste the Eagles of Eastern Michigan.
Eastern Michigan is winless this season, and they have been blown-out by 21-points or more in 5 of their last 6 losses!
Home finale for the Rockets who have played their last pair away from home, and will close with a road game at Bowling Green.
Look for Toledo to be up for the senior night occasion, as they have covered the last pair, and 6 of the last 7 in this series.
The misery continues for the Eagles tonight, as the Rockets roll to a blow-out win and cover.
Play Toledo.
2♦ TOLEDO
Stephen Nover
Boise State at UTAH STATE -23'
Boise State has too much balance, both offensively and defensively for Utah State.
I could see this game getting out of hand early as Kellen Moore bolsters his Heisman Trophy credentials by putting up huge numbers against the Aggies' 107th-ranked defense.
Utah State held San Jose State, the worst team in the WAC, to nine points last week. The Aggies still are giving up 30.7 points per game. And that's playing against offenses that are nowhere near Boise State's class.
Moore operates the nation's top scoring offense. Boise State is averaging 43.6 points per game and 444.3 yards per contest. Moore has a 19-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games.
The Broncos are nearly as tough on defense ranking 12th in the country in total defense and 15th in scoring defense allowing 16.9 points per game.
Utah State has lost 15 straight non-Saturday games. The Aggies also have lost eight straight times to Boise State. There figures to be as many Broncos fans in the stands as there are Utah State faithful.
The Broncos have one of the best spread marks in the country at 7-3 despite big lines like this. They are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games, including 8-3 against the number during their past 11 road games.
3♦ BOISE STATE BRONCOS
Drew Gordon
Seton Hall at CORNELL -3'
7-2 L9 Free Plays, incl. the Hornets outright over the Suns 110-103 Thursday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Seton Hall/Cornell match up.
After starting the season with road wins at Alabama (outright) and at UMASS, the time has come to jump aboard this Big Red squad. Make no mistake, this team is the real deal, returning all 5 starters, three of which were all-Ivy League selections, plus the reigning rookie and defensive players of the year in the conference. Underestimate this Cornell squad at your own loss, as the gym will be rocking in Ithaca tonight.
Seton Hall on the other hand, struggled in their season opener, barely getting past St. Peter's at home. Then, rebounded against cupcake Monmouth-NJ... And this is the team you think is going to beat Cornell on the road? From a match up standpoint, the Big Red has the backcourt (Dale & Wrolewski) to counter most backcourts they'll see this season. Dale was Ivy League player of the Year in 2007-08, and Wroblewski is the rookie of the year in confernece, and a 3-point sharpshooter (44% last season from long range). They also have the Defensive Player of the Year in Jeff Foote, a 7-footer who loves to block shots, and is adept around the basket on the offensive end.
Finally, consider the line. When do you see an Ivy League team favored versus a Big East school? Seems tempting right? Not to this 'capper! Cornell can and will protect their home court, while Seton Hall remains one big question mark after piss-poor performances in their first 2 games. In the end, I'm buying what the Big Red is selling, at least until the public catches on.
Take Cornell over Seton Hall in this college hoops match up.
4♦ CORNELL
Chris Jordan
Seton Hall at CORNELL -3
Gave you Big Red the other night as a 100♦ winner, and tonight I am back on them against Seton Hall.
This is no fluke team guys, Cornell is for real.
It's already beaten Alabama and Massachusetts. And both wins, for the record, came on the road.
Remember the Ivy League powers of Princeton and Pennsylvania? That is Cornell this season - it is favored to win the Ivy League.
As I said the other night, Cornell is looking to dominate and get to the Big Dance. You've seen the first two opponents; now there is Seton Hall and on deck is Syracuse.
You really think Big Red has no problem challenging powerhouse Big East foes after knocking off an SEC team and an Atlantic 10 foe?
I'm playing Cornell again, as it rolls to an easy win and cover.
3♦ CORNELL
Wunderdog
Charlotte at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -3
The Milwaukee Bucks suffered the loss of Michael Redd once again, but this time they have an answer in rookie Brandon Jennings. Jennings has been quite the surprise as he has already dropped 55 points and is averaging 24.8 per game. The Bobcats made an upgrade to a struggling offense by acquiring Stepon Jackson, but this team although highly competitive at home, is 0-6 on the road and overall, has now dropped six straight as well. The Bobcats play solid defense, but the offense is a disaster as they average just 83.4 points per game. Put that offense on the road and they are scoring under 80, which may be the lowest of any NBA team ever in the shot-clock era. The Bucks are delivering after a 10-point win at 6-0 ATS and the Cats have dropped four of the last five in this series. Milwaukee gets the call here.
EZWINNERS
Boise State Broncos @ Utah State Aggies
Play: Boise State Broncos -23.5
Boise State must continue to try to win with style points to make their way up the BCS standings and the Broncos should be able to do so on the road against the Aggies in this game. The Broncos are on a 8-1 against the spread run in this series and Boise State has won the last six meetings by an average of 34 points per game. This years Utah State team is ranked 106th in the nation in total defense, so the Broncos should find the end zone early and often. Lay the points.
Mr. Vegas Wins
Akron at Bowling Green
Akron has had QB troubles all season, but freshman QB Patrick Nicely is now running the offense. Nicely went wild with 377 yards (30-of-59) in a 28-20 win over Kent State. Akron’s biggest weakness is run defense, but they face a Bowling Green offense that can’t run the football. Both teams have excellent passing games so look for the Zips to hang within this number. Play Akron!
Yankee Capper
Cleveland Cavaliers -4
Washington Wizards +3.5
NCAAF
Toledo -16.5
NCAAB
Michigan State -30
Penn State -6
NHL
Boston/Buffalo Under 5.5