LT Profits
SIU-Edwardsville vs UC Davis
Pick: UC Davis -6.5
The UC Davis Aggies improved nicely going from 5-26 two years ago to 14-17 including 9-9 in Big West play last year, and although they are 1-2 so far, they lost two tough true road games at Utah and Portland. They still have four players averaging double-digits, including highly regarded freshman recruit Brynton Lemar, who may already be the team’s go-to guy as he has been used on over 28 percent of the team’s possessions. He joins the club’s top two scorers from last year including stat-filler Corey Hawkins, who averaged 20.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.5 steals. Meanwhile the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars are predicted to finish dead last in the weak Ohio Valley Conference and it is easy to see why as they are ranked 319th in offensive efficiency and 316th in defensive efficiency after three games. UC Davis is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a straight up loss by more than 20 points.
Navy vs San Jose State
Pick: Navy +2.5
Sometimes in football, the way teams match up is more important than pure talent, and such is the case when the Navy Midshipmen visit the San Jose Spartans. San Jose State may have better recruits, but Navy is fifth in the nation in rushing at an impressive 311.0 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry, and it is facing a 102nd ranked San Jose rushing defense allowing a disturbing 201.6 rushing yards per game! On the opposite side, the Spartans are most certainly a passing team with David Fales under center as the team is ranked 11th in the country in passing offense at 325.4 aerial yards per game, but defending the pass is the strength of the Navy defense as the Middies are a nice 27th vs. the pass compared to 92nd vs. the run. Navy is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games vs. the Mountain West Conference.
Wunderdog
South Dakota at Wyoming
Pick: Wyoming -14
The Wyoming Cowboys have a unique home court advantage as they play at a high altitude. Over the years they certainly have taken advantage of that, especially against a team that is not used to playing here. That is especially true against a team they are better and deeper than. South Dakota has just two players that average over 7.5 points per game, and they are certainly fitting the profile of a team that Wyoming takes out at home. The Cowboys are 3-0 here already to start the season, and opened the out-of-conference schedule here 9-0 last season. That means they are 12-0 out of conference to start the season since last year, covering all but one of them. Lay the points and back the home team.
Larry Ness
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
The Spurs are 10-1, tied with the Pacers for the NBA’s best record and San Antonio’s eight-game winning streak matches that of the Blazers, for the longest active run. The Spurs have won their last eight games, by a margin of 12.6 PPG. This visit to Memphis is San Antonio's first game here since completing a four-game sweep of the Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals. Including that series and a 101-94 win in this season's opener in San Antonio, the Spurs have taken 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Grizzlies, while limiting Memphis to 40.5 percent from the floor.
That leaves Memphis with a rather daunting challenge but after a slow start, Memphis has found its groove, winning all four games of a just-completed four-game West Coast swing. The Grizzlies bested the Lakers and Clippers at Staples Center, the Kings in Sacramento and the Warriors in Oakland, while holding those teams to an average of 88.8 PPG (includes holding Golden St to just 81 points in an OT game!). "New coach, new offense ... we just have to get used to it," point guard Mike Conley said after Wednesday's 88-81 overtime win over the Warriors. "Now we've been able to figure it out."
Conley’s been outstanding (18.8-5.5 APG) plus Memphis still owns arguably the NBA’s best one-two “inside punch” of Gasol (17.2-7.5) and Randolph (16.5-9.4). I don’t usually like to buck the Spurs but Memphis is LONG overdue for a win against San Antonio and this seems like the perfect spot!
Rickie Robbins
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Golden State Warriors -5
The Golden State Warriors hope to have Stephen Curry back in the lineup tonight when they take on the Los Angeles Lakers. The Warriors were looking for their fifth straight victory on Wednesday but they had to play without Stephen Curry who sat out with a mild concussion and just couldn't get over the line against the Grizzlies. Klay Thompson led the team with 21 points, while David Lee added 18 points and eight rebounds, but the Warriors weren't quite the same with Andre Iguodala filling in at point guard who finished with 14 assists but shot just three of 14 from the field for seven points. On the defensive end, they will be happy that they held the Grizzlies to 38.6 percent shooting for the game, but they fell short in key moments of the game thanks to a couple of key clutch shots from Teyshaun Prince and Mike Conley who delivered in overtime. With the loss, the Warriors fall to 8-4 on the season and 5-1 at home.
Meanwhile, the Lakers have been tampering with their starting lineups all season and while they still haven't settled on one yet, they can be sure that Jordan Hill will be a lock, especially after his career night of 24 points and 17 rebounds against the Pistons on Sunday. Jodie Meeks and Nick Young added 19 points apiece and Steve Blake had nine points and 16 assists as the Lakers cruised to a 114-99 win at home to improve to 5-7 overall and 4-3 at home. In injury news, Kobe Bryant returned to practice this week for LA so his return is surely just around the corner now.
In ATS trends, the Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall, while the Lakers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
Head to head, the Warriors are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall and the over is 4-0 in the last four.
Dave Price
Boston Celtics +8
Indiana is being overvalued due to its hot start. You want to back home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games when they're matched up against a team that has covered the number in 6 or 7 of its last 8 games. That's because doing so has produced a 66-35 ATS mark since 1996. Teams fitting these parameters have lost on average, but only by 2.6 points. This system tightens up to an eye-popping 24-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Boston is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. It has also won 9 of the last 10 at home in the series. Take the points as Boston keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.
Jack Jones
Bulls/Blazers Under 190½
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight between the Portland Trail Blazers and Chicago Bulls. The books have simply set the bar too high tonight, and we'll take advantage by backing the UNDER 190.5 points here.
Both teams play at below-average paces. Chicago ranks 17th in the league in pace at 96.6 possessions per game, while Portland ranks 20th at 96.1 possessions per contest. The Blazers have yet to face a team that plays defense like Chicago.
The Bulls rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency at 92.8 points per 100 possessions allowed. On the season, they are giving up just 89.8 points per game on 40.4% shooting. Unfortunately, Chicago's struggles have come on the other end.
The Bulls are scoring just 93.3 points per game on 42.7% shooting. They rank a woeful 28th in the league in offensive efficiency with 92.8 points per 100 possessions. Portland is 16th in the league in offensive efficiency at 101.6 points per 100 possessions.
Even though the Bulls held the Nuggets to 97 points last night on the road, it wasn't good enough for defensive-minded head coach Tom Thibodeau. "Our turnovers hurt us," Thibodeau said. "The big thing is we gave them easy scoring opportunities. We should have been able to count on our defense. Ninety-seven points, 46 percent (shooting for Denver), it's too much."
The UNDER is 10-4 in Bulls last 14 games playing on 0 days rest. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven games overall. Thibodeau is 49-25 to the UNDER in the first half of the season as the coach of Chicago. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
Greg Shaker
Pennsylvania / Iowa Over 157
Large number and going up for now but good enough to play here. I have 161.7..The Pace is going to be Frantic, we do have two teams that get to the Free Throw Line a lot, Iowa 31.4% of the time per possession, and Penn 30.4% of the time per possession, and we also have two teams that make their Free Shots at a good rate, especially the Hawkeyes. This is not likely going to be a close affair and the 2nd Half could be Wild and Crazy because of this. Triple or Near Triple Digits in the 2nd would not surprise me.
Harry Bondi
Navy / San Jose State Under 60
We cashed another winning ticket with our ugly NFL dogs theory that has made us a fortune this season and will go against the public again tonight and play under the total in the Navy at San Jose State game. Both of these teams can score points but going inside the numbers we find that the oddsmakers overreact when the Midshipman play on artificial turf and after they score 40 or more points in a game. The prevailing thought is that Navy's triple option offense will score even more on the faster surface of artificial turf but they tend to jack the total up too high and Navy has played under the posted total in 14 of their last 17 on the fake stuff. Also, Navy has failed to go over the total in the game following the Middies scoring 40 or more points in a game seven straight times! Let's hope the trend database pays off tonight go under the total Navy at San Jose State.
Joe Gavazzi
Navy +2.5
It’s the Navy run game led by QB Reynolds against the San Jose passing attack of QB Fales. Advantage. Navy against the San Jose St. team who lost 38-16 at Nevada last week when they allowed the Wolfpack to dominate them overland 311-58. It was a magical season for San Jose last year. They went 11-2 SU ATS. This year, however, following a pair of defeats, the Spartans have dropped to 5-5 SU and still must face Navy this week and undefeated Fresno next week. That’s a lot of pressure for this team. In that magical season of last, San Jose authored one of the most shocking performances of the 2012 season. The Spartans traveled 3000 miles east to Annapolis, where they shut out the Middies 12-0 allowing Navy a total of 144 yards. It was the Mids worst offensive showing in over a decade. At 6-4 SU, with post season plans secured, Navy will be playing with far less pressure than their host. And we are always looking at the Middies in this role, where they are a long-term 22-8 ATS as road dog.
Dr Bob
Navy (+2) 32 SAN JOSE STATE 29
It’s tough for teams that are right in the middle of their conference season to prepare for Navy’s option offense, which is something that they normally don’t see. Non-conference games in the middle of the conference season can be hard to get up for and anything less than full focus during the week trying to learn how to defend the option can hurt you on Saturday. Navy is 64-44-1 ATS since 1996 when facing a team coming off a conference game, including 38-16-1 ATS as when not favored by 2 points or more (Navy is not as good as a favorite). The Midshipmen are 32-9 ATS in road games in that situation since 1991, including 17-2 ATS more recently and they’re 31-7 ATS as a road underdog against a team coming off a loss in their last game. Navy also applies to a 108-42-4 ATS statistical match up indicator that plays on good running teams as underdogs against teams that don’t defend the run well (that makes sense).
San Jose State did an incredible job defending the Navy option in a 12-0 win over the Middies last season but the coaching staff that led last year’s Spartans has moved on. San Jose State’s current defensive coordinator spent the last 6 years as a linebackers’ coach at Cal and the Bears never faced the option while he was there. Those military men surely haven’t forgotten how they were embarrassed by a very good San Jose State defense last season and Navy is 58% ATS the last 33 years when facing a team that beat them in their previous meeting (97-67-3 ATS), including 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 such games as an underdog (14-0 ATS if the opponent is coming off a loss. Navy shouldn’t have any problem running the ball this year against a Spartans’ defense that is 0.6 yards per rushing play worse than average defensively and my math model picks this game even, so there is a bit of line value in favor of the Midshipmen, who tend to play their best on the road (60-24 ATS as a road dog). I like Navy here and I’d consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.
Dr. Bob
TORONTO (-4½) over Washington
Washington is coming off consecutive upset wins but the Wizards apply to a negative 17-67-1 ATS situation that is based on those two victories. My ratings only favor Toronto by 3½ points but I still like the Raptors here because the situation is so good. I’ll lean with Toronto based on the situation.
Golden State (-6) over L.A. LAKERS
This opinion is contingent on Stephen Curry returning to the lineup for the Warriors after sitting out Wednesday’s loss with a mild concussion. That loss sets up Golden State in a 156-73-4 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation and the Warriors are 23-4 ATS under coach Mark Jackson on the road after a loss when visiting a team coming off a win. It would appear that Curry will play based on the line moving from -5 to -6 points. However, I only favor Golden State by 4½ points with Curry playing so the line is a bit high. I’d take Golden State as a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 or less if Stephen Curry is upgraded to probable.
OC Dooley
Connecticut -2
This is the championship game of the 2K Sports Classic being played inside New York’s famed Madison Square Garden. One year ago in the championship game of this preseason tournament Alabama won by a massive TWENTY-TWO point margin which was just one day removed from a “squeaker” in the semifinal round. Connecticut is in a similar situation as tonight they are favored in the championship tilt one day removed for a very close semifinal game where they survived by just a TWO point margin. As predicted yesterday heavily favored Connecticut was put to a severe test by former rival Boston College who was facing them for the first time since the 2005 campaign. The oddsmakers have made a loud statement in tonight’s championship tilt casting Connecticut as a full two-point favorite even though they are facing an Indiana contingent with an identical “5-0” record. The reason why Indiana is an underdog has to do with a poor schedule as the Hoosiers have already faced four teams (Chicago State, Long Island, Samford, Stony Brook) who are not exactly major tests. Many reading this analysis may remember that Connecticut a year ago was barred from participating in the postseason, but that is not the case this time around. Connecticut has an outstanding backcourt led by SENIOR point guard Shabazz Napier (14 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists per game) who coupled with Ryan Boatwright have already combined on 13 different DEFENSIVE steals.