Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 25

NCAAB

Elon at North Carolina State
The Phoenix look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog of 13 points or greater. Elon is the pick (+14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolfpack favored by only 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Elon (+14 1/2)

Game 541-542: Miami (FL) at Mississippi (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 64.159; Mississippi 64.022
Dunkel Line: Even; 137
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+2); Over

Game 543-544: Valparaiso at Ohio State (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 61.419; Ohio State 86.384
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 25; 138
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 22 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-22 1/2); Under

Game 545-546: Marshall at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 60.396; Cincinnati 69.799
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-8)

Game 547-548: Ohio at Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 56.465; Louisville 70.654
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 14
Vegas Line: Louisville by 16
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+16)

Game 549-550: WI-Green Bay at Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 54.967; Virginia 64.197
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 9; 119
Vegas Line: Virginia by 12; 114 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (+12); Over

Game 551-552: Georgia at Xavier (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 60.177; Xavier 72.334
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 12
Vegas Line: Xavier by 10
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-10)

Game 553-554: UAB at Wichita State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 58.824; Wichita State 68.289
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 11
Dunkel Pick: UAB (+11)

Game 555-556: Pacific at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 44.946; Hawaii 58.657
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 10
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-10)

Game 557-558: James Madison vs. Rider (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 54.988; Rider 54.589
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: James Madison by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+2 1/2)

Game 559-560: Robert Morris vs. LaSalle (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 56.472; LaSalle 59.042
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (-1 1/2)

Game 561-562: Pittsburgh at Pennsylvania (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 65.321; Pennsylvania 58.238
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+8)

Game 571-572: Florida A&M vs. Southern (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida A&M 38.565; Southern 33.095
Dunkel Line: Florida A&M by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida A&M by 2
Dunkel Pick: Florida A&M (-2)

Game 573-574: Northern Colorado vs. Western Carolina (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 53.620; Western Carolina 48.095
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-1 1/2)

Game 575-576: Rice at Northern Iowa (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 59.727; Northern Iowa 62.436
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 4
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+4)

Game 577-578: Providence vs. Iowa State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 55.224; Iowa State 60.454
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 5
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-2 1/2)

Game 595-596: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 66.789; Oklahoma State 62.767
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 4
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-2 1/2)

Game 597-598: Stanford vs. Syracuse (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 64.925; Syracuse 76.198
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 11 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 9; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-9); Under

Game 599-600: Mississippi Valley State vs. Tennessee State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi Valley State 44.030; Tennessee State 47.284
Dunkel Line: Tennessee State by 3
Vegas Line: Tennessee State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi Valley State (+5)

Game 601-602: Morgan State vs. Cal Poly (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 50.671; Cal Poly 51.183
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 1
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (+2 1/2)

Game 603-604: USC vs. UNLV (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 55.540; UNLV 70.781
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 15
Vegas Line: UNLV by 13
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-13)

Game 605-606: South Carolina at North Carolina (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 53.346; North Carolina 77.275
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 24
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-20 1/2)

Game 609-610: Princeton vs. Bucknell (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 50.372; Bucknell 59.000
Dunkel Line: Bucknell by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Bucknell by 6
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (-6)

Game 619-620: Boston U vs. Cleveland State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 50.724; Cleveland State 58.656
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Boston U (+11)

Game 621-622: Hofstra at Rhode Island (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 54.985; Rhode Island 58.241
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+5 1/2)

Game 625-626: Alcorn State vs. Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alcorn State 33.934; Tulane 56.760
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 23
Vegas Line: Tulane by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-20 1/2)

Game 627-628: Nevada vs. BYU (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 59.971; BYU 64.197
Dunkel Line: BYU by 4
Vegas Line: BYU by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+5 1/2)

Game 629-630: Wisconsin vs. Bradley (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 73.838; Bradley 56.193
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 19
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+19)

Game 631-632: MD-Eastern Shore vs. Louisiana Tech (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Eastern Shore 36.231; Louisiana Tech 48.273
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 12
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 10
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-10)

Game 633-634: Portland State at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 47.652; Wyoming 52.449
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 5
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+7 1/2)

Game 635-636: Furman at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 48.872; Clemson 69.714
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 21
Vegas Line: Clemson by 17
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-17)

Game 637-638: Elon at North Carolina State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 51.651; North Carolina State 63.380
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+14 1/2)

Game 639-640: Tennessee-Martin at Mississippi State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 43.540; Mississippi State 67.544
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 24
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 21
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-21)

Marc Lawrence

Iowa at Nebraska
Prediction: Iowa

This season finale in Lincoln for both squads should go a long way towards determining bowl position as both sit at 4-3 in Big Ten play. The Huskers own the better overall record (8-3 to 7-4) but they have been ‘leaking oil’ of late (0-3 ‘ITS’ last three) and are just 3-8 in Last Home Games. We think you’ll agree it’s hard to lay this many points in this spot, especially when you consider that Captain Kirk’s defensive-minded Hawkeyes have dropped only two of their last 15 decisions by more than 7 points and are 8-1 ATS as dogs of more than 8 points. Recent play on the field also has us eyeing Iowa as the Hawkeyes held a potent Michigan attack to 16 points earlier this month while Denard Robinson shoe-laced the Huskers’ stop-unit for 45 points. Nebraska’s 2-5 ATS mark at home off back-to-back roadies also doesn’t lend support into laying nearly double-digits into a team that plays almost week in and week out to the level of its competition. Iowa’s 3-1 ATS log in LRG’s seals the deal as they may very well get the bigger payday during this bowl season. We won’t call for the outright win but it would come as no surprise. Either way, a must take. We recommend a 1-unit play on Iowa.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +6½ over WEST VIRGINIA

7:00 PM EST. We almost always prefer backing coaches who emphasize game preparation over recruiting during open dates, and this year's Backyard Brawl provides a perfect example of that contrast. Pittsburgh has a handful of coaches who have been on the other side of this rivalry, including head man Todd Graham. The Panthers understand this game a little better than rookie coach Dana Holgorsen, and Graham is now 8-3 with extra prep time, while Holgorsen laid a serious egg against Syracuse in his first time in that spot. West Virginia's offensive line has struggled all year and this week faces the best front four it has seen since LSU. Pitt is minus Ray Graham, but Zach Brown has filled in ably and Mike Shanahan is exactly the kind of receiving threat that the Mountaineers have not been able to solve this year. West Virginia is the more talented team, but Pitt is harder-working, better-prepared, has better overall chemistry and defensive leadership. Plus, the Panthers match up pretty well. Play: #127 Pittsburgh +6½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Scott Rickenbach

Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois
PICK: Over 64

The Huskies quick approach on offense (often going with their “no huddle” offense) has led to Northern Illinois going 7-1 to the OVER this season in games played on turf. Of course they are home on Friday morning and that means another battle on turf and it appears the weather conditions will be ideal for a high-scoring affair. Note that Northern Illinois has averaged 63 points per game in their last three match-ups with the Eagles. As for Eastern Michigan, though they have struggled to score against the Huskies in recent match-ups, there should not be a repeat of that this season. The Eagles come into this match-up having averaged 28 points per game in their last three games. Eastern Michigan should enjoy plenty of success against a Huskies defense that has allowed an average of 32 points per game in their last 7 games.

The Eagles are looking to become bowl eligible for the first time in 16 years and that insures a focused effort here. To get the job done in terms of what would be a massive upset, Eastern Michigan knows they will have to match Northern Illinois point for point. That means the Eagles will be throwing the ball more than usual this week and an aggressive passing attack almost always helps an over. Couple that with the fact that the Eastern Michigan defense won’t be able to stop dual threat QB Chandler Harnish and you have the makings of a very high-scoring affair here. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Northern Illinois in EARLY Friday college football action.

Sam Martin

Boston College at Miami FL
Prediction: Miami FL

This is more of a play "against" Boston College than it is "on" Miami Fl, as the Golden Eagles are in a horrible matchup here and we don't think their anemic offense can keep them within two touchdowns of the Hurricanes. BC has scored 14 points or less in four of their last five games, and the lone exception in that streak was when they put up 374 rushing yards against Maryland. That won't happen here against a stout Miami defense, and the Canes are more than capable of putting up points on this defense that doesn't defend the pass or rush particularly well. 5* Play on Miami FL.

Stephen Nover

Arkansas @ LSU
PICK: Arkansas

We know LSU is good. But Arkansas is a much better team that what it was two months ago.

The Razorbacks have beaten the Tigers in three of the last four meetings.
They will be a tough out again for LSU because they have the passing game and team speed to stretch the field.

The Razorbacks have scored at least 30 points in their three meetings
against LSU under Bobby Petrino.

Arkansas is in good form, too, scoring 44, 49 and 44 points during the past three weeks. The Razorbacks did this against worthy defensive foes, too, having faced Mississippi State, Tennessee and South Carolina.

The Razorbacks have scored at least 26 points in 18 of their last 19 games.

Jim Feist

California vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona State -5½

It's tough to trust Cal (6-5) on the road, especially with erratic junior QB Zach Maynard (16 TDs, 11 INTs) and this defense has been a problem all season. They are inconsistent and sloppy. They come off a good effort, a 31-28 loss at rival Stanford with Maynard having a strong game: 20 of 29 for 279 yards, 2 TDs and no picks. He has been turnover prone at times, however. Cal had a 23.3 point swing between home and road games last fall and that trend is continuing, blowing out Fresno (36-21), then struggling at Colorado and a 43-15 loss at Oregon. UCLA blasted California 31-14 as the Bruins had 294 yards rushing and Cal turned it over 5 times (4 picks by Maynard). The defense is allowing 27 ppg. Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast and Tedford are re-evaluating the defensive personnel. The Golden Bears are 4-7 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games. Arizona State (6-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) has a lot of talent on a strong offense that averages 33 points and 318 yards passing, led by 6-8 junior QB Brock Osweiler (21 TDs, 10 INTs). The Sun Devils are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games and will do well against this Cal defense. Play Arizona State!

Patrick Webb

Houston vs. Tulsa
Play: Over 76

The Over is the play for Houston at Tulsa. Tempo, momentum, and offensive production will lead to a lot of points for each team. Houston has scored 49+ in 7 of the last 8 games, scoring only 37 last week versus SMU in a 37-7 win. Tulsa has scored 37+ in 6 of their last 7 games including back to back scores of 50+ points in the last two games. Both of these teams feature high tempo offenses- creating extra possessions for two offenses that score at prolific rates.

Tulsa is allowing teams to pass for 267.2 yards per game at home this season. Houston averages 463.2 yards per game passing on the road this season and Case Keenum has a 38/3 TD to INT ratio. Tulsa's defense surrenders yards in exchange for a shot at turnovers. This doesn't bode well for the Tulsa defense that has boasts a solid 16/16 TD/INT ratio defensively. Houston's rushing offense has accounted for a very solid 5.5 yards per rush and scored 30 additional TDs. Houston has three solid options at tailback who all have at least 7 rushing TDs entering this game. Tulsa has been solid versus the rush but are vulnerable to big plays versus this offense and will gamble in this game to try to steal possessions.

Tulsa's offense has been very solid nearly all season and boasts much more balance than Houston's. Tulsa has averaged 41.6 ppg so far this season at home and over 500 yards of offense per home game. Tulsa's Achilles heel this season offensively this season has been turnovers- they have thrown 15 INTS and lost 13 fumbles so far this season. Houston's defense has allowed 25.8 ppg on the road this season and nearly 400 yards per game. This is one of the better offenses they have faced this season and they have allowed 30+ points per game in 4 of the 11 games this season. Houston is another defense that thrives on turnovers generating 22 turnovers so far this season.

These two teams have combined for over 76 in two of the last three meetings with the exception being a 28-25 Tulsa victory versus Houston last season without Keenum. Both of these teams have at least 5 receivers with plays of 50+ yards. As long as this game is competitive early I look for this number to be surpassed in the third quarter. Both teams have the ability to score defensively and via special teams plays, along with big plays on offense. Both of these defenses are vulnerable to big plays and the offenses have a clear advantage versus each defense.

The Over is 8-1 in Houston's last 9 games versus a team with a winning home record and 20-5-1 in Houston's last 26 games of allowing 20 points or less in the previous game. The Over is 4-1 in Tulsa's last 5 games as a home underdog.

Vegas Experts

California at Arizona State

Three straight losses and triple revenge have us looking towards the desert this evening as ASU hosts Cal in a critical Pac 12 matchup. The Sun Devils must win here and have both Utah and USC (both double digit favorites) win their games in order to qualify for the inaugural Pac 12 Title Game next Friday. ASU had won all four of its home games prior to last week's shocking outright defeat to rival Arizona. They are 8-1 ATS their last nine in Tempe when off back to back conference tilts and are 11-6 ATS L17 overall here.

Play on: Arizona State

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes +9.5

Iowa has proven throughout the Kirk Ferentz era that it can slow down option attacks by playing disciplined assignment football. The most recent example of this came on Nov. 11 when the Hawkeyes held a Michigan team that currently ranks 12th in the nation with 231.9 rushing yards per game to 127 rushing yards in a 24-16 victory. The Hawks decided they were going to make Denard Robinson beat them through the air, and ended up forcing him into a pair of costly turnovers. Expect Iowa to take a similar approach today against Taylor Martinez, who is among the worst passing quarterbacks in college football. Iowa has had a ton of success against good running teams. In fact, it is 24-6 ATS versus teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game under coach Ferentz. It has won these contests by an average score of 29.5 to 23.9. In addition, The Hawkeyes are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Cornhuskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. We'll take the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Princeton vs. Bucknell
Play: Princeton +6

Princeton should improve as we like to play on dogs that have shot progressively worst the past 3 games vs an opponent that has shot progressively better the last three. The Tigers are a dog here but have won all 5 meetings vs Bucknell and have covered 21 of the last 29 on the road. They apparently love Friday as they have covered 13 of the last 14. Bucknell has failed ats in 5 of the last 7 ats on Friday and has never has much success when playing the Princeton style of play. Look for Princeton to get the cover.

David Malinsky

UTEP @ Central Florida
PICK: Over 53

Totals tickets do not come much more easily than the * Over we got from U.T.E.P. against Tulsa last week, a game that finished more than four full TD’s above the projections. Except for perhaps this one, which has a chance to be just as loose and free flowing.

The Miners enter the game a win away from being bowl eligible, and while that might seem to be a cause for snicker, there are plenty of openings. Army and Navy did not qualify for their spots, Southern Cal is still under sanction, and Miami F. has chosen to stay out of the post-season. So the Miners will go out and play with energy and abandon, because that is their only way to win – a feeble defense does not allow it to happen any other way. And that defense only gets worse this week without SS Travaun Nixon, who was lost to a knee injury vs. Tulsa last week and is not likely to return for a bowl game, should they pull the upset here. But QB Nick Lamaison is healthy again, and he combines with Brandon Meger for a solid one-two punch at the position.

It has been a season of disappointments for Central Florida, but we believe we can use that to our advantage here. The defense was far below past standards, allowing 30.7 pgg and 420 ypg in three November outings, and if not for a shutout vs. hapless Memphis, and a game played in near-monsoon conditions vs. Marshall that is of no statistical meaning, their full-season numbers would look much worse. That unit is not going to play a shutdown game here, and because his team does not have much to shoot for, let’s project that George O’Leary will have them playing loosely and aggressively on offense, emptying out the back pages of the playbook, as they go out and have a little fun.

Jack Jones

Arizona State -5.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils must win Friday to stay alive for a chance to play in the Pac-12 championship game. Because they have lost three straight coming in, the Sun Devils are showing excellent value against Cal Friday as the betting public is staying away from them.

ASU has been a much better team at home this season than they have been on the road. The Sun Devils are 5-1 at home, outscoring their opponents 39.7 to 21.8 on average, and outgaining them 473-408. On Senior Night, this team will come to play.

The Cal Bears are coming off a heartbreaking 31-28 loss at Stanford last weekend. They aren't alive in the Pac-12 title race, and they have little to play for since the Bears are already bowl eligible. Cal has been atrocious on the road this season, going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS away from home. They are getting outscored 23.2 to 33.8, and outgained 397-469 on the road.

Arizona State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Sun Devils are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. Cal is 8-21 ATS in their last 29 road games, including 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Bet Arizona State Friday.

Black Widow

1* on Eastern Michigan/Northern Illinois OVER 64.5

Northern Illinois has been playing in a ton of shootouts of late, and I fully expect another high-scoring output between the Huskies and the Eastern Michigan Eagles Friday. NIU is scoring 41.5 points/game and giving up 33.8 points/game this season, or an average of a combined 75.3 points/game. As you can see, this total set is well below their season average. They are doing whatever they want offensively, averaging 506 total yards/game. They haven't been able to stop a lick defensively, yielding 435 yards/game. Eastern Michigan is giving up 35.0 points/game and 445 total yards/game on the road this year. I look for Northern Illinois to go off for 40-plus, while EMU scores enough to get this one OVER the number. NIU has scored 71 and 50 points in their last two meetings with Eastern Michigan, respectively, and both games went OVER the total. Eastern Michigan is 7-0 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 7-1 in Eagles last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The OVER is 8-1 in Huskies last 9 November games. Take the OVER 64.5 points here.