Matt Rivers
Your comp play winner for Friday will be to back the Cardinals of Ball State as the home underdog versus the Toledo Rockets in a Mid-American Conference contest.
Ball State is closing the season with a flurry; the Cardinals have won 3 of their last 5 games straight up, but better still is their 5-0 against the spread mark in those 5 outings.
The Cards are also on a 5-1 spread run in this series, and have been able to cover 4 of the last 5 meetings in Muncie.
Toledo arrives with wins in 6 of its last 7, and the Rockets can still make the MAC title game with a win today, and a little help from Eastern Michigan, but Toledo's pass defense has been quite suspect this season, and thusly the Rockets have failed to cover in 3 of their last 5 games - all in the favored role.
Highly doubtful Northern Illinois, an 18 1/2-point home chalk and one of the hottest teams in the conference, will lose to Eastern Michigan. And with that game kicking off 3 hours earlier, Toledo's chances of sneaking into the MAC title game might be dashed before taking the field at Ball State. A bowl game bid for a second straight year would still be in the cards, but it might be an obvious letdown situation.
The Rockets also have to worry about the health of quarterback Austin Dantin, who did not play against Central Michigan last Friday and is still suffering the effects of a concussion suffered November 8. Sophomore Terrance Owens made his first start of the season instead and might have to go again today
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In the end, too many question marks for my liking in laying double-digits on the conference road. Take the Cardinals in this one plus the points as they keep their bowl hopes alive.
4♦ BALL STATE
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ Ole Miss Under 133: Being mostly an Under player the Canes play the kind of ball that I like, slow andd boring. The Canes are not a pshing team as they average just 53.8 shots per game, which is 223rd in the nation. Miami does average 69 ppg, but they only shoot 40.9% from the field. This is a team that relies on the 3pt shot (34.4%), but Ole Miss defends the arc well, allowing just 30.7% from there. Ole Miss overall has allowed just 60.2 ppg on 38.8% shooting. The Canes defense has been really good this year as they have allowed just 56.8 ppg on just 39.4% shooting. They should have another good outing today vs a Rebel team that may put up 67.6 ppg, but that shoots just 39.7% from the field and 17.5% from beyond the Arc. This game should be a defensive struggle with not more than 120 points being scored.
1 UNIT PLAY
Syracuse -8.5 over Stanford: After blowing through their early schedule the Orange got into a dog fight with Va Tech. They are better than that and will show the Nation just how good they are vs a good Stanford squad.
OC Dooley
Pittsburgh +6.5
This game has a direct connection to last night’s ESPN college football broadcast where two long rivals (Texas A+M, Texas) played a thriller that was decided by just a TWO point margin. Due to radical conference realignment which has been one of the bigger stories on the collegiate gridiron, last night marked the final time that the Aggies and Longhorns would face each other in an annual clash that was 117 years old. Courtesy of realignment (for cash purposes) many long standing rivalries are coming to an end including the Panthers/Mountaineers who tonight just may be putting the finishing touches on an annual rivalry that is 103 years old. West Virginia is attempting to make an early exit from the Big East even though the conference is attempting to hold them for the 2012 campaign in what is turning into a legal battle. If tonight is indeed the final “backyard brawl” one would expect at the very least to have a CLOSE game, especially since both sides are neck-and-neck in the Big East standings. Pittsburgh ’s head coach is Todd Graham while West Virginia is also being run by a first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. I mentioned those coaches because back in 2009 when Holgorsen was an offensive coordinator with Houston his team defeated Graham’s Tulsa contingent by a “one point” final margin. Following the game Holgorsen actually accused Graham of CHEATING (players faking injury) so it goes without saying that we have a head coaching rivalry of sorts tonight as well. As for Pittsburgh as a team they are in double-revenge going 0-2 SU/ATS the past two years in the “backyard brawl”. The good news is that Pittsburgh has COVERED SEVEN IN A ROW against solid offensive opponents who average at least 5.9 yards per play. West Virginia has actually ALTERNATED “spread” wins-and-losses in 5 consecutive outings and that pattern indicates they are in for an ATS setback tonight versus a motivated opponent
NHL Predictions
Phoenix Coyotes +101
The Canucks enter tonight’s game 11-9-1 on the season and 6-6 on the road. The Coyotes are 11-6-3 and 5-3-2 at home. The Coyotes returned from a 5 game road trip with a win on Wednesday at home against the Ducks 4-2. Phoenix fared well on their road trip going 3-2 with wins over Buffalo, Toronto and San Jose. Their two losses came against Philadelphia and Washington and they lost by just 1 goal in both games. Vancouver has gone 5-2 over their last 7 games (5-4 over their last 9), but a few of those wins came against teams that are struggling. With Luongo out with an injury we will see Cory Schneider who is 4-4 with a 2.24 GAA and .920 SV%. For Phoenix we will see mike Smith who has been great this season going 10-3-3 with a 2.15 GAA and .935 SV%. These two teams split their meetings last season. Note that the Canucks are 1-4 in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record, and just 4-9 in their last 13 games following a win. The Coyotes are 5-1 in their last 6 vs Western Conference opponents and 6-2 in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. This one comes down to who has been playing better hockey and I give that to the Coyotes. That and the home ice advantage makes the Coyotes a solid play today getting pretty much even money.