Jack Jones
UCLA -5.5
The UCLA Bruins (9-2) have been the team that everyone thought they’d be this season in the second half of the year. They certainly struggled in the first half and that culminated in back-to-back home losses to Utah and Oregon. However, this has been a completely different team over their last five games where they have won all five. That has especially been the case in the last three as the defense has really stepped it up.
UCLA is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It started with a 17-7 home win over Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite. The defense limited a high-powered Wildcats offense to just 255 total yards. The Bruins really should have won by more as they outgained Arizona by 205 yards in the win.
The offense took charge against Washington in a 44-30 road win as a 30-point favorite. UCLA racked up 476 yards of offense while holding the Huskies to 366, outgaining them by 110 yards for the game. Last week, they beat USC 38-20 in a dominant effort. They limited the Trojans to just 276 total yards, outgaining them by 185 yards for the game.
While the Bruins have everything to play for knowing that they will be playing in the Pac-12 Championship if they win this game, the Stanford Cardinal (6-5) have nothing to play for but pride. They finally clinched bowl eligibility last week with a 38-17 win at California that was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. They only outgained the Bears by eight yards for the game, but they took advantage of five turnovers from Cal to run away with the win.
Stanford just doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bruins in this one, especially with the way that the Bruins have been dominating defensively of late. Stanford averages just 25.2 points and 381.9 yards per game against teams that give up 31.2 points and 438 yards per game. UCLA averages 35.0 points per game and 486.6 yards per game against teams that allow 26.5 points and 412 yards per game.
The Cardinal are just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season. They are scoring just 19.6 points per game and averaging 341 yards per game on the road. They have lost to Notre Dame (14-17), Arizona State (10-26) and Oregon (16-45) on the road this season as their offense has been held to 16 or fewer points in all three games. I look for their offense to be their demise in this contest once again.
Their offensive weaknesses are really magnified heading into this game because they are going to be without their best playmaker. Ty Montgomery, their leading receiver and return man, is expected to miss this game with a shoulder injury. He leads the team with 61 receptions for 604 yards and three touchdowns. No other receiver has more than 32 catches for them. Montgomery also averages 25.2 yards on kick returns and a whopping 18.4 yards on punt returns, including two touchdowns.
Stanford is 0-8 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last two seasons. UCLA is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 home games after two or more consecutive wins. The Bruins are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. The Cardinal are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Stanford is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.
Dave Price
Dallas Mavericks +4
Right away, you have to like the fact that November underdogs with a win percentage of 60-75% are 55-29 ATS the last five seasons. Furthermore, Dallas has been an exceptional investment on the road where it is on a 34-17 ATS run. It is on a 29-15 ATS run in road games versus winning teams and a 22-9 ATS run as a road dog. I'll take the points as Dallas takes Toronto right down to the wire.
Rob Vinciletti
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -2½
The Nuggets have revenge for a loss in Phoenix on Wednesday as these two play the 2nd of a home and home. Home teams with no rest like Denver that are off a road spread loss and scored 110 or more and allowed 100 or more have covered nearly 90% vs an opponent like Phoenix that won and covered as a home favorite of 5 or more and scored 120 or more points. Denver should win this game as a small favorite and the inning team in this series has covered 18 straight. Were doing Denver tonight.
Jim Feist
Timberwolves at Lakers
Pick: Under
Since giving up 140 at Dallas the Lakers are playing some defense allowing 101 and 99 the last two games (both under the total). In fact, they are on a 3-1 run under the total and the under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 home games. LA is 7-3 under against a team with a winning percentage below .400 and a banged up Minnesota team is in town struggling to score, 16th in the NBA in points scored. They just scored 86 points in a loss to Milwaukee at home. Ricky Rubio (ankle) and Mo Williams (illness) were sidelined again in a 103-86 home loss to Milwaukee. The injury-plagued Wolves are also without Kevin Martin (fractured right wrist) and former Laker Ronny Turiaf (sore hip). LA star Kobe Bryant finished with 22 points on 5-of-15 shooting the last game, dropping his field-goal percentage to 37.9%. Nick Young hasn't been able to find his touch either, totaling 25 points while missing 25 of 33 shots over his past three. The Lakers are shooting 38.7 percent from the field, including 16 of 71 (22.5 percent) from 3-point range, during their home losing streak. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles between these teams, too.
Will Rogers
Winnipeg vs. Boston
Pick: Boston
The Winnipeg Jets are coming into this contest in good spirits as they're looking to conclude this road trip with a third consecutive win. The Boston Bruins are in quite the opposite position, trying to avoid three home losses in a row before traveling to Anaheim Monday. The Bruins have dominated the Jets over recent seasons though, especially in Boston, and I think they'll prove to be too strong for the visitors.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Goaltending - The Bruins Vezina Trophy winner Tuuka Rask started the season slow but is 2-1-1 with a 1.51 GAA over his last five starts. He's had the better of Jets over his career, going 8-4-0 behind a 1.98 GAA. Those are numbers Ondrej Pavelcec can only dream of, as he's 0-6-1 with a 4.00 GAA over eight starts in Boston.
2. Bad Match - The trips to Boston have not been a pleasant experience for Jets over recent seasons. They've lost 12 straight meetings at TD Garden winning only four of the last 22.
3. X-Factor - Winnipeg's road record might look impressive until you take a closer look. They've mostly been beating up on weaker teams, in fact, they've lost all of their last four on the road against a team with a winning record.
DAVE COKIN
IPFW VS DARTMOUTH
PLAY: IPFW +2
I lost track a long time ago at the number of times I’ve read or heard pre-season reports on Dartmouth that always begin the same way. “This is the year the Big Green finally start to show some progress” is the general tone. Then the campaign gets rolling and Dartmouth does what they always do, which is lose way more often than they win.
Same old story heading into this year, with the typical dose of optimism. I guess I kind of get it, as big Gabe Maldunas is healthy again, and there’s a corps of returning starters that often does indicate good things might be about to happen. They’ve got some size and perhaps a little more depth than is usually the case for the Big Green. I’m not going to rule out Dartmouth being better this season. But they’ll have to prove it to me, and until that time, count me as a skeptical observer.
IPFW is off a terrific season, and while the Mastadons probably won’t get to 25 wins again, I think they’ll be just fine. In spite of losing some key contributors from that team as well as the head coach, there’s still ample talent and experience on hand. As for the new coach, Jon Coffman moved up from assistant to head man, so he knows all these players well and chances are he recruited several of them, or at least played a part in doing so. IPFW has been just fine out of the gate, winning three of its first four with only a respectable loss to Georgia Tech.
IPFW was one of the most accurate shooting teams in college basketball last season, and it appears as though they’ve barely skipped a beat as far as that aspect of their game is concerned. The Mastadons are not a big basketball team, but they’ve been good at playing to their strengths snd camouflaging their weaknesses.
Dartmouth does have the height to cause some problems here. The Big Green might have some success on the glass at both ends of the court and IPFW needs to make sure the home team doesn’t do much damage on second chance baskets. But Dartmouth doesn’t have the offense to exploit what could be a shaky IPFW defense, and the Big Green have lots of ball security issues in opening the season 0-2.
The fact the Big Green have only played the two games so far is not a positive. In terms of a potentially negative on the IPFW line, I’m a little concerned that they’re off a win this past Monday against their former coach, and the Mastadons also defeated this opponent with ease last season. But I definitely see the visitors as the better squad and I’ve basically never had a problem trying got beat Dartmouth. I’ll go that way again here, with a call on IPFW plus the small number to collect the cash.
SPORTS WAGERS
W. MICHIGAN -7 over Northern Illinois
A shot at the MAC championship game is on the line here and while the points may appear very tempting for this 6-1 (conference) NIU team, we’re suggesting its not. This game goes early at 11:00 AM EST and along with everything else, an “off” scheduled start time always favors the home team. Northern Illinois has won five in a row but we say big deal, as they have won by some slim margins over teams that Western Michigan has destroyed and we don’t like the Huskies chances of success of running the ball on the Broncos as easily as they have against other MAC clubs. Furthermore, NIU is traveling for the fourth time in five weeks and we can’t stress enough how difficult that is. The Huskies better overall record of 9-2 (WMU is 8-3) is nothing but the result of a weak schedule that includes a weak non-conference schedule in which the Huskies went 3-0 beforelosing to Arkansas, 52-14.
Second-year WMU boss P.J. Fleck is the youngest coach in the FBS (33 years old) and since he arrived in Kalamazoo, the Broncos have hauled in the MAC's best recruiting classes. Fleck and his staff have been unafraid to unleash their talented underclassmen and virtually all of the team's key skill players are freshmen and sophomores. The results have been excellent, as Western has revived an offense that managed just 17 points per game last year. The Broncos have played just two home games since October 4 and won them both by scores of 51-7 and 42-21 over Eastern Michigan and Ohio. Incidentally, NIU’s two wins over those two programs were 28-17 against E. Michigan and 27-24 over Ohio. The Broncos had non-conference games against Purdue and Virginia Tech and although they lost them both, they were both very good showings. The Broncos are a well-balanced outfit that move the chains via the pass or run. They are also very good defensively and while the Huskies defensive numbers are solid too, NIU struggles miserably on offense and that’s going to be the difference here. Watching the Huskies trying to play catch up will not be a pretty site for their backers.
Larry Ness
Middle Tennessee State vs Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Middle Tennessee St made the jump from the Sun Belt to C-USA look easy last year, going 24-9 (13-3). However, head coach Kermit Davis lost his top-four scorers from last year’s team, including the team's only three double digit scorers. Forwards Jones (14.2-8.5) and Hunter (13.2-4.8) plus guard Hammonds (12.3) are NOT back. EIGHT players are seeing 16-plus minutes per game but just TWO, the 6-7 Upshaw (11.3-7.3) and shooting guard Tarrance (10.5-3.5), are scoring in double digits. The Bearcats also know something about key losses and new players as the 2014-15 season gets underway, as well.
Mick Cronin had to replace Sean Kilpatrick, who left the program as its second all-time scorer, to only the Big O (now that’s saying something!). SEVEN new players are on the roaster and not a SINGLE double digit scorer is back from last year. However, Cincinnati has proven it can win at Fifth Third Arena, posting a 4-0 mark to open play, winning each contest by at least eight points. However, the Bearcats take their show on the road (or at least to a neutral court), as they travel to Niceville, Fl (hard to top that name) for a semifinal game with MTSU in the Emerald Coast Classic (unbeaten Creighton and 3-1 Ole Miss square off afterward in the second semifinal).
“It’s time for us to get out of here and play a few games on the road,” Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin said after his team’s 59-50 win over North Carolina Central on Tuesday. “The most important thing for us is that we have to pack our defense with us and we have to take care of the ball. Once you get out of your own gym, if you turn the ball over, you are going to lose.” Middle Tennessee also has won both of its on-campus Emerald Classic home games, beating Southern (66-48) and Northern Arizona (65-53) but prior to that lost 68-49 at home to Murray St in a game the Blue Raiders shot just 18.2% in, including a WOEFUL 1 of 22 on threes!
The Bearcats are led by 6-10 JC transfer Ellis (11.8-9.0) with sophomore guard Caupain (10.5-3.8-2.8) checking in as the only other double digit scorer. However, the Bearcats’ trademark defensive intensity has carried them thus far, as they’ve held THREE of their four opponents to 50 points or fewer, allowing just 49.2 PPG to rank 6th-best in the nation in that category. The Bearcats beat a MUCH better MTSU squad 69-48 last year in Cincinnati and it’s hard to dismiss the fact that Cincinnati is 18-2 in in-season tournaments/events during Cronin’s nine seasons. Lay the points.
Hollywood Sports
Western Kentucky at Marshall
Prediction: Marshall
Laying more than three touchdowns is always a dicey proposition but the Thundering Herd present a solid play this afternoon after they survived their "scare" game at UAB last week by winning by a 23-18 score to remain unbeaten after ten games. Because Marshall has generated at least 457 yards in each of their last five games, they are supported by a historical big favorite angle that has been 76% effective since 1992. Favorites laying 21.5-30 points who have gained at least 450 yards in five straight games have then covered the point spread in 28 of the last 35 situations where these conditions applied. Take Marshall minus the points.
Mike Rose
Virginia at Virginia Tech
Pick: Virginia
The Cavaliers beat the Miami Hurricanes at home last week to keep their potential bowl bid alive. They also pushed the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee two weeks prior to that. QB Greyson Lambert is just a sophomore, and he will improve in due time. He has just nine touchdown passes against 10 picks this year, but he is making some huge throws in big spots that you aren't seeing on the stat sheet. This is one of the many quarterbacks of the future in the ACC, and it would help out Virginia perhaps more than any other team in the conference, to get those extra bowl game practices. Virginia has been getting routinely whooped by the Hokies for a number of years, and this is the day when it all comes to a close. Back the Cavaliers in this battle for bowl eligibility.
LT Profits
Dallas vs Toronto
Pick: Dallas +3.5
The Toronto Raptors have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 13-2 but they could face a stiff challenge here from one of the best teams in the entire NBA in the Dallas Mavericks. This is a matchup of a Dallas team that leads the NBA in scoring with 109.2 points per game vs. a Toronto team that is seventh in points against at 96.5 per contest. However, the Raptors are only 18th in field goal percentage allowed, so Dallas should be able to run up some points because of the faster pace it plays at than the teams Toronto is used to facing in the East. Also, Dallas is not as bad defensively as the 99.8 points it is allowing, again because of its fast pace, so the Mavs should reasonably contain the Toronto offense. The Mavericks are 40-14 ATS in their last 54 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit -½ +144 over NEW JERSEY
Regulation only. Great spot for the Red Wings. For one, Detroit is beginning to impose its will with four wins in their last five games. Over that span they scored four or more goals in each win and have scored four or more in six of their past eight. That doesn’t figure to change anytime soon because the Red Wings are absolutely loaded offensively with one of the best groups of forwards in the entre league. Detroit is not only doing it offensively but its underrated defense continues to perform at a high level. In fact, Detroit is ranked 2nd in the NHL behind the Wild for the fewest shots on net allowed per game. When the Red Wings were dominating and winning Stanley Cups, they did so with a group of forwards that were not as talented as the group they employ now. Stephen Weiss back in the lineup gives the Red Wings more grit another scoring option, as if they needed it. Jimmy Howard is also playing at a high level again and that makes the Red Wings even more appealing.
The Devils return home from a difficult 4-game trip through the Canadian West Coast. Over their last five games, the Devils have scored two goals or less four times. After this game, the Devils have the Islanders and Penguins on deck, which are two of their biggest rivals. Not only are the Devils overmatched in every way here (offense, defense and goaltending), they are also in a very difficult scheduling spot.
N.Y. Islanders +100 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Under Barry Trotz’s new system, the Capitals are playing a much more disciplined style. The focus has shifted from offense to defense and we’re not convinced that it’s going to pay off anytime soon. The Caps have been held to two goals or fewer in five of their past six games. The only time they went over two goals during that span was against the Avalanche. They also have just two wins in their last six games, both by a goal over Colorado and Arizona with the latter occurring in OT. Ranking low with their strength of schedule ranking 26th in the league, the Capitals are three games under .500 at 9-12 and they are 2-6 against top-10 teams.
The Islanders recently played a home and home series against the Penguins and swept them, scoring nine goals in the process. They followed that up with two more wins over Philly and Washington while outshooting that pair 81-48. The Isles have now won five in a row and 10 of 11. Over that stretch they have two 1-0 victories, a 6-0 victory, a 5-2 victory and a 5-4 victory. In other words, the Islanders can win in a close, low scoring contest or they can bury their opponent by scoring four, five or six goals. This is a wickedly talented offense that doesn’t need John Tavaras and Kyle Okposo to carry them. The Islanders strength of schedule ranks 6th in the league, which is 20 spots tougher than the Capitals. Without having to lay anything with the Islanders against Washington, this is a bet we would make 100% of the time and make no exceptions here.
Winnipeg +148 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins are on a current run of two losses, three wins and two losses. One of those three wins occurred against the Blue Notes in a game the Bruins mustered a mere 17 shots on net while allowing 33. Another win came over Columbus in a game they trailed 2-0 going to the third. The other win came against Carolina (2-1) and again the Bruins were outshot, this time by a count of 34-25. In its last six defeats, Boston has been outscored 16-4 and they could easily be on a 7-game losing streak right now. We’ve been saying all year that the B’s are just not the same team as previous years and we’ll continue to fade them when they are overpriced like they are again today. It’s also worth noting that Boston embarks on a four-game, West Coast swing to Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Jose and Arizona after this one and that’s a trip that most East Coast teams forward to or at least like to prepare for.
When we can take back a price like this on a strong team from the West against an East opponent, we’ll bite almost every time. Winnipeg is 12-12 and according to Sagarin ratings, it has played the toughest schedule in the NHL. By contrast, Boston is an East team with a 13-10 record and has played the easiest (ranked 30th) schedule in the league. In terms of strength of schedule, this is first versus worst. The Jets have been outstanding on the road the entire year with eight of their 12 wins occurring away from the MTS Center. They could easily have at least two more road wins, if not more. Rarely do the Jets get outplayed or outshot. Winnipeg may not be in the elite group with teams like Chicago, Anaheim or St. Louis but they are definitely in the second tier of elite teams. Michael Hutchison gets the start in goal again and all he’s done is post a 4-1-1 record thus far with a save percentage of .947 and GAA of 1.50. This kid is no fluke either. He stands tall, he’s poised as hell, he has sick rebound control and could turn out to be the missing link that the Jets need to take that next step. In terms of value, this is the best on today’s board.
Bob Balfe
Arizona -2.5
Arizona State just does not have the bodies on defense to win here late in the year on the road. This Defense consist mostly of guys that never played at this level coming into this season with so many true starters and it has shown. This Arizona team has a scrappy defense and on offense I don’t think they have many problems scoring against the Sun Devil Defense here at home. Take Arizona.
Toronto Raptors -3.5
Toronto played Dallas really well the last few times they have played and are light years better this season. This bench might be the best in all of basketball and for sure is the best bench in the Eastern Conference. This Raptors team plays great at home while Dallas is just average away. Look for the Raptors to get a big home win. Take Toronto.
Anthony Michael
Missouri +3.5
There is a serious problem with this line since the wrong team is favored. I know Arkansas is coming off of consecutive shut out wins but now they travel away from home and have to take on a Missouri team that needs a win to get into the SEC Championship game. Arkansas has failed to cover their last 7 times as a road favorite in the conference when playing off of a double digit ATS win. Take the home dog Tigers here.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ Los Angeles
Pick: Minnesota +5.5
Minnesota has been forced to use its bench with some key injuries, and the players haven't been that bad. Second-year center Gorgui Dieng started his fourth straight game in place of the injured Nikola Pekovic, while former #1 pick Anthony Bennett and Shabazz Muhammad are playing key roles off the bench. Minnesota is off a bad game at home, but the Timberwolves are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games when following a double-digit loss at home. They face an awful Lakers team that has lost four in a row. Los Angeles is mired in the worst start in franchise history and fell to 1-7 at Staples Center with Wednesday's 99-93 loss to Memphis. The Lakers are shooting 38.7% from the field, including 16 of 71 (22.5%) from three-point range, during their home losing streak. The Lakers are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 home games and #30 in the NBA in points allowed. When these teams meet the road team is 13-5 ATS and the Timberwolves are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Minnesota.