Jeff Benton
Your Black Friday freebie is Ball State to make it a black Friday indeed for Miami-Ohio.
Have to face facts, the Redhawks have NOTHING this season. Miami-O has now lost 16 in a row straight up, and the points have not been all that helpful as the Redhawks are just 1-5-2 with the spot their last 8 games this season, getting outscored by an average of 33 points over their last 3 losses. Chances the end the year with a victory are slim and none.
Ball State can name it today, and they will name it. The Cardinals have covered 7 of their last 10 in Muncie when dressed as the favorite, and today presents senior QB Keith Wenning a chance to pad his stats, which are pretty darn impressive to say the least - only the second quarterback to throw for over 7,000 yards in school history.
Cardinals have been off since losing at Northern Illinois on the 13th, today they take out their frustrations on the door mat of the MAC, Miami Ohio as they win this one 49-7 over the Redhawks.
5♦ BALL STATE
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Dallas Mavericks in their final meeting of the year.
The Mavericks are off to a better start this year than many people thought they'd be, but a closer look at their record and results you can see this is a Dallas team that clearly plays better in Big D.
Dallas has just two road wins in seven tries, and now they enter Atlanta knowing the Hawks have a little revenge on their minds. Dallas beat the Hawks on opening night, 118-109, in a game that was a lot closer than the final score indicated.
With a solid inside game, including Al Horford, the Hawks will attempt to slow the pace and work the ball inside. They saw the Houston Rockets do this with some success against the Mavs as Dwight Howard has dominated in two games against Dallas.
Samuel Dalembert wasn't able to stop Howard and he's not going to be able to stop Horford either. Atlanta needs a quality win like this on their resume to turn things around, and I think they'll get it by four or five points.
Take the Hawks as your free play of the day.
2♦ ATLANTA
Brad Wilton.
Black Friday is here, and my "gift" to you is Bowling Green as the small favorite in their MAC East showdown with Buffalo.
The winner faces Northern Illinois in the conference title game next Friday, and my money is on the more complete Falcons to dump the Bulls.
The Falcons defense comes in at #8 ranked, and they have allowed just 10 points to score against them in their last 3 games - all wins and covers!
Can't knock the season Jeff Quinn's team is having, but it should be noted the last time Buffalo was an underdog, they lost by 10 at Toledo after getting down 31-0 in that contest.
Bowling Green has won and covered the last pair in this series, and 3 of the last 4 both straight up and against the spread.
Look for the Falcons defense coupled with the talented combo of Matt Johnson under center, and RB Travis Greene who has 9 touchdowns the last 8 games to make the difference in this MAC battle.
Bowling Green advances to the MAC Championship with the solid touchdown win and cover over Buffalo.
2♦ BOWLING GREEN
Brett Atkins
My free pick comes from the Orleans Arena and the Las Vegas Invitational, where I'm laying the points with Missouri over Reno, after seeing these two play last night. Missouri struggled in the first half against Northwestern, allowing the Wildcats to get out on their break, and basically do what they wanted.
But then the Tigers awoke for the second half, they were relentless. Missouri scored the first 14 points of the second half, and eventually widened its lead to 15 points thanks to the a balanced inside-outside game, and a transitional game fired up from a tenacious defense.
I watched UNR get humiliated into submission against UCLA, and not to compare the Tigers to the Bruins, but same kind of quickness and athleticism the Wolf Pack couldn't handle. Once the Tigers get rolling and into a groove in this game, Nevada won't stand a chance, even with leading scorer Deonte Burton.
My money is the Tigers will once again find their frontcourt presence, and will be able to get easy buckets on the break. Lay the chalk.
3♦ MISSOURI
Dr. Bob
Fresno State (-7 1/2) 38 SAN JOSE STATE 35
A San Jose State victory here would not be much of an update in my mind since Fresno State is only 0.7 yards per play better than an average team (+0.6 yppl on offense and +0.2 yppl on defense) while San Jose State is average from the line of scrimmage. That math only favors Fresno by 3 points and I have strong situations favoring both sides in this game. Unbeaten teams tend to fall on the road against quality opposition this time of the year and I'll lean with the Spartans in a game that they must win to qualify for Bowl consideration. San Jose State will be playing with a sense of urgency while Fresno State may be playing this game not to lose rather than to win.
OREGON (-23) 46 Oregon St. 19
It's tough to know how Oregon will react to last week's loss at Arizona, which ended their chances of winning the Pac 12 and going to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl. However, I suspect the Ducks will regain some focus this week for rival Oregon State and if that's the case they should win by more than 3 touchdowns, as my math model favors Oregon by 25 1/2 points if each team plays at their normal level.
Oregon State has trouble defending the run, as the Beavers have given up 6.6 yard per rushing play or more in 3 of their last 4 games and are now allowing 203 rushing yards at 6.0 yprp in 10 games against FBS opponents (and they were also run on in their opening loss to FCS team Eastern Washington). Oregon should run wild in this game while the Ducks' outstanding pass defense (4.9 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team) should contain a very good Beavers' aerial attack (367 yards at 7.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average QB). After taking care of the ball most of the season (just 3 interceptiosn in the first 8 games) OSU quarterback Sean Mannion has returned to his careless ways with 10 picks in the last 3 games (he now has thrown 44 interceptions in 3 years).
It's possible that Oregon has lost interest in their season but I think pride will kick in against their in-state rival and that we'll see the Oregon that we saw earlier in the season.
CENTRAL FLORIDA (-27) 36 South Florida 12
UCF is a very good team but South Florida is improved offensively with Mike White at quarterback and the Bulls' defense is solid (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). It might be hard for UCF to score enough points to cover such a big number. My math model actually gives South Florida a 55.8% chance of covering but UCF applies to a 35-4 ATS situation that plays on favorites of more than 21 points with revenge and the Bulls apply to a 71-138-6 ATS situation. I'll still lean with USF despite the bad situation.
Harry Bondi
SAN JOSE STATE +8 over Fresno State
Really interesting match-up today between these long time bitter rivals. Fresno State is one of the best teams in the country in line to be a BSC buster and would complete an undefeated regular season for the third time in school history with a win over San Jose State today. But the Bulldogs have already wrapped up the Mountain West Western division title and will play Boise State in the league championship game on Dec. 7 so even with a lot on the line today this is a little bit of a look ahead game for the Bulldogs. San Jose State has the offense to keep pace with Derek Carr and company and while their defense has been a disaster against the run it has been very good against the pass and that's how Fresno moves the ball. The Spartans won't be intimidated as many of these kids grew up playing against each other in California high schools and know each other well. Lets take the motivated home dog to keep it close today, take San Jose State.
SPORTS WAGERS
IFPW +15 over ILLINOIS
Early in the season when power conference schools schedule games against weaker competition, the goal is to win a lot of games early and fine tune everything until the in-conference games kick in. What we also get early in the year is a lot of bogus rankings in all areas because of such weak schedules. The Illini have jumped out to a 6-0 start after defeating Alabama State, Jacksonville State, Bradley, Chicago State and UNLV. Against UNLV in their last game, the Illini played catch-up all night long. Illinois trailed by 10 at the half in that game and eventually won it by a single bucket. Illinois is getting big production out of Rayvonte Rice and Joseph Bertrand but very little production from anywhere else. Rice did not play at all last season. Against UNLV, Rice spent 38 minutes on the court (season/game high) and recorded his season high in points and rebounds because the Illini got a big scare. Illinois is winning but they’re not blowing away the easy competition. With Georgia Tech up next and figuring this is an easy game, the Illinois don’t figure to blow away this unknown program either.
Right off the bat when you wager on Illinois over Fort Wayne you are going to pay a premium to do so. If any team in the Summit League is looking to build on momentum gained late last season, it's Fort Wayne. The Mastodons floundered early in the season but finished 2012-13 with five straight wins and a quarterfinal victory in the Summit League tournament. Frank Gaines, the program's career leading scorer has graduated, but all the key players who filled in around Gaines and who began hitting their stride late in the season return for coach Tony Jasick. The Mastodons have reeled off five in a row. Their two losses this season have both been by a single point and one of those was against Temple. In eight games overall this season, IFPW has had six different players lead the team in scoring while senior Michael Kibiloski was second in scoring in four of those games without being their best scorer in any game. The Mastodons are deep, they’re talented and they really have a chance of catching the Illini off guard. We’re always looking for overlays early in the year and trust we have found another here. Take the points.
River City Sharps
Marquette -1.5
Marquette seems to be getting their act together offensively and will need it as they take on the Colonials from the A-10. GW is very experienced and needed that experience yesterday as they drew away from Miami (FL) in OT. The reason we like Marquette here is that they have been tested by a pretty good early season schedule, while GW hasn't faced the same competition. The Golden Eagles get it done here.
Florida Atlantic -27.5
We aren't going to do a big writeup here, because how many ways or times can we say this: FIU IS HORRIBLE! After a 72-0 loss to Louisville here earlier this season, a Louisville assistant coach was rumored to have said that FIU is the worst football team they have played since Strong has been the coach (and that's saying something!) On the other side, Fla Atlantic like to score lots of points and really likes to beat the tar out of inferior competition, as seen in last week's 55-10 pasting of New Mexico State! We are only going to go 2 units here, but feel free to go more if you like as FAU can name this score.
Rocketman
Pittsburgh vs. Miami Florida
Play: Miami Florida
The Miami Florida Hurricanes travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Panthers on Friday afternoon. Miami Florida is 8-3 SU on the season while Pittsburgh comes in with a 6-5 SU record this year. Miami Florida is 9-1 ATS last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3. Miami Florida is scoring 35.5 points per game overall this year. Miami Florida is 11-1 SU overall vs Pittsburgh since 1992 including 6-1 SU at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS last 6 games after a SU win. The Favorite is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Miami Florida today!
The Prez
Xavier vs Tennessee
Play: Xavier
Ignore the meltdown by the Musketeers in their OT loss to Iowa on Thursday. Xavier led by as many as 15 points in the second half against the Hawkeyes, but got sloppy with the ball committing 11 of their season-high 19 turnovers after the break. The fact that Xavier had 55 points in the first 28 minutes nd then followed with just 14 in the last 12 minutes was cause for the loss, not their turnovers, and all indications have Semaj Christon hydrated for today's game.
Joe Gavazzi
Oregon State +22
Arizona RB Casey went for 2 Bucks and QB Denker was 19/22. It sure didn’t seem like the Ducks cared much once their National Championship aspirations evaporated for the season. Even with the opportunity to garner the PAC 12 North, and play in the Rose Bowl, the Ducks showed little motivation. No surprise they have beaten the rival Beavers 5 straight times averaging 47 PPG. But if the motivation for playing for the Rose Bowl did not inspire them, how do they get psyched for an Oregon St. team that has a total meltdown in losing 4 straight games to Stanford by 8, USC by 17, Arizona St. by 13 and Washington by 42 last week, in a game where the Beavers allowed 530 running yards. Note the recent 24-11 ATS road record of Oregon St.
Chris Jordan
I like the basketball game taking place here in Vegas late tonight at the Orleans Arena.
Northwestern is big and physical. UCLA is quick and athletic.
I like what I see with the line I'm getting.
My free winner is in the NBA, as I love the Denver Nuggets to get it done over the visiting New York Knicks, who will conclude a four-game road trip in the Mile High City. Seriously, though, I'm not even analyzing this game, I'm just going to put things in perspective as to why the Knicks could care less and will just want to get back to the Big Apple.
On Nov. 23, the Knicks went to the nation's capital to start this tour. They lost to the Washington Wizards. Two days later they were in Portland, where they lost to the Trail Blazers by 11. Two days later they were in Los Angeles and lost by 13 to the Clippers. Now I don't know the travel habits of the NBA over holidays when you have one day off, but I can't imagine two days after the loss in L.A., the Knicks are in any mood to play in high-altitude Denver on a seven-game losing streak.
If the Knicks flew all the way home to see family yesterday, they're tired. If they didn't, they're likely pissed and frustrated.
I'm telling you now, this is going to be a blowout. Nuggets roll.
3♦ DENVER NUGGETS
LT Profits
Miami-FL vs Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5
The Miami Hurricanes were once 7-0 this season and had aspirations of playing in a BCS bowl after being banned from bowl play the last two years, but then running back Duke Johnson was lost for the season during their loss at Florida State and that began a downward spiral as it started a three-game losing streak before a non-covering win over Virginia last week. In fact, the Canes are now on a six-game ATS losing streak. The Pittsburgh Panthers are in their first season in the ACC and they became bowl eligible with a 17-16 road win at Syracuse last week. Pitt is 3-4 in the conference and now has a chance to even that mark at home vs. a disappointed team they may not be too excited the rest of the way given the Canes’ preseason hopes. Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
Duke vs Arizona
Pick:Arizona -2.5
It is a marquee matchup in the NIT Season Tip-Off Final with the fourth ranked Arizona Wildcats facing the sixth ranked Duke Blue Devils, although the latter may be overrated as usual. More telling than the poll rankings is that Arizona is ranked 10th on the Pomeroy Ratings while Duke only ranks 22nd. The Blue Devils can shoot the basketball as they have an outstanding effective field goal percentage of 61.5 percent, but they can also get pushed around under the boards. Arizona has a huge edge there as the Wildcats rank 12th in defensive rebounding percentage while Duke is 239th in offensive rebounding percentage. Also, while four of the Arizona starters played big minutes last season, Duke’s only starting senior is the limited Tyler Thornton, and the youth of the Blue Devils showed in their loss to Kansas. Duke is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.
OC Dooley
Cavaliers +4
Since both sides are struggling with poor overall shooting percentages from the field, it is wise to “take” the generous points. At most offshore locations this game opened with the Celtics as just a three-and-a-half point favorite but the line has increased since the nation back on Wednesday got to see Cleveland in an ESPN national telecast where LeBron James came back to home. Following Wednesday’s 95-84 home loss versus defending league champion Miami in what was an emotional affair, the Cavaliers are riding an 0-4 skid which is a season-high. Star point guard Kyrie Irving (21 ppg) was quick to point out that his Cleveland teammates are determined to quote “figure things out” and they certainly have a COACHING edge this evening in terms of experience. The Cavs are being coached by Mike Brown for a second time and he is still implementing his detailed defensive schemes which only were introduced during training camp. Not only is Brown experienced after taking the Cavaliers annually to the playoffs when LeBron James was still with the team, he has a vast “professional” edge as opposed to new Boston head coach Brad Stevens who prior to this campaign had only collegiate experience with Butler. Boston may have an above .500 record with Stevens but in front of the HOME fans (2-5 SU/ATS) they have struggled. In the coaching career of current Cleveland head coach Mike Brown, when his teams are coming off an ugly loss of “double digits” his squads have responded with a 25-11 ATS/ROAD mark