Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 30

Stephen Nover
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves
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Both Milwaukee and Minnesota started hot. The Bucks opened 6-2. The Timberwolves won five of their first seven. Since then, though, the Bucks have dropped four of their last five. Milwaukee's lone victory during this span came against the Bulls, 93-92, when the Bucks rallied from 27 points down in the third quarter. The Timberwolves are 1-6 in their past seven games.
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So why get involved with either of these two fading teams right now?
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The answer is that Minnesota has more going in this matchup. This the Timberwolves' lone home game during a seven-game span. This is Minnesota's first game back from a four-game West Coast trip that concluded on Wednesday. Sometimes a first game back from an extended trip can be tough both mentally and physically. But the Timberwolves have had a full day to recuperate. They were 2-0 last season when returning home from a trip of three games or more.
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Part of Minnesota's skid stemmed from injuries. The Timberwolves are far from fully healthy, but their guard rotation is shored up with J.J. Barea back. Kevin Love's hand is improving every game. Love is an absolute rebounding and scoring monster. The Bucks won't be able to do anything about him.
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The Bucks have yet to get consistent play from their front-court players and swingman Mike Dunleavy is in a shooting slump. Ersan Ilyasova had a break-out season last year for Milwaukee, but hasn't been able to sustain it. He's been so bad that Scott Skiles has removed him from the starting lineup. The Bucks' frontline is composed of inexperience, castoffs and role players, none of whom can do anything to stop Love.
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The Bucks lost 102-88 to New York this past Wednesday at home. Milwaukee's starting frontcourt scored the grand total of two points. The Bucks are averaging 89 points in their last three games. That's a drop off of 12 points a game from their first 10 games.
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Rick Adelman has improved the Timberwolves with a full training camp. Minnesota's defense is way under-the-radar as the Timberwolves are giving up the sixth-fewest points per game at 93.1. They also rank ninth in defensive field goal percentage at 43.7 percent.
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The Bucks get their scoring from their starting backcourt of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings.They are averaging a combined 35 points per game. However, neither shoots well from the floor. Jennings is shooting 42.2 percent from the floor while Ellis is at 41.3 percent and is hitting just 18 percent from 3-point range.
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Home-court is important, too, in this matchup. The Bucks usually don't play well at Target Center. This is reflected in them losing 10 of their last 12 visits to Minneapolis.

TJ Pemberton
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Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks
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Laying some chalk with the New York Knicks tonight as they host the Washington Wizards.
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The Knicks are at home tonight coming in off a night's rest. Some trends that caught my eye...
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Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
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The Wizards have dropped nine straight to the Knicks by an average of 14.0 points and in ATS trends, they are only 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings in New York.
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The Knicks have been one of the best teams in the league and I will lay the points tonight.

Jordan Runco
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UCLA vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford
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The Pac-12 Championship involves two teams that recently played six days ago. UCLA (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) comes into this game looking for revenge after Stanford (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) defeated them at home last week. The winner goes to the Rose Bowl. UCLA travels to Palo Alto, Ca to face the Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Last game: Stanford (-2’) over UCLA, 35-17.
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Odds: The oddsmakers have installed Stanford as a 8-point favorite. The total is 44 in most books.
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Line Movement: Stanford opened as a 10.5-point favorite and moved to 9 at most books. The total started at 51.5 and moved down to 44 in most books.
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COLLEGE FREE PICK: Stanford. Latest trends include: Bruins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Stanford is 4-0 ATS L4 in series, favorite is 4-0 ATS L4 meetings, 6-1 ATS L7 at home in series, 5-0 ATS L5 in November, 21-5-1 ATS L27 following an ATS win and 12-2 ATS L14 off BB wins
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Stanford has had a great year considering they lost star QB Andrew Luck to the NFL and haven’t had the most success at that position this year. Now they are in the Pac-12 Championship game at home, despite teams with more talent (USC, Oregon) sitting this one out. Stanford did replace Josh Nunes at qb with freshman Kevin Hogan, who has led the Cardinal to wins over three ranked teams in Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA. Stanford controlled this game last week from Los Angeles, as Stepfan Taylor rushed for 142 yards and two TDs. Stanford has won eight straight at home and 19 of 20 home games. Stanford's defense, which allows just 71ypg and 2.4ypc on the ground, is the difference here.

Freddy Wills
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Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Play: Kent State
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The winner of this game has a possible shot at a BCS bowl so a lot is on the line. All they need is to be in the Top 16 and have one of the three lose Nebraska, UCLA, or Florida State. Northern Illinois has been on fire for 3 years now in the MAC thanks to Jordan Lynch who is 3rd in the nation in total yards. Kent State has their own star in Dri Archer who averaged over 9 yards per carry. Northern Illinois has had plenty of close calls this year and ironically they were all against top 50 rushing offenses vs. Army they only won by 1 they have the 6th ranked rushing attack behind Kent State which is #1 with over 6 yards per carry.
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Kent State also has been solid at stopping the run in that respect these two teams are pretty even. Northern Illinois has more of a balanced attack, but Kent State has not been that bad vs. the pass stiffening in the red zone allowing just 38% TD’s in conference play. Kent State has 16 interceptions on the road and are +20 in turnover margin on the year which could be a major advantage in this game if they can stop the run which they have been very good at doing. All in all I think this will be a chess match, Dri Archer will have his moments and so will Jordan Lynch. The story of the MAC Championship has been the under dog covering the spread the last three years and there is enough talent and value on Kent State here as you can easily see them winning this game. Northern Illinois struggled with Toledo at home and were lucky to win that game. Toledo has one of the worst defenses in the nation.

Rob Vinciletti
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Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks
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The Knicks cashed for us on Wednesday as a nice free play tonight we have new reasons to like their chances. The Knicks are 9-1 straight up and ats with rest this season and have won and covered 4 of 5 vs losing teams. The Wizards are 0-14 ats as a dog if they blocked 10 or more shots at home in their last game. Washington is off their first win of the season. They edged the Blazers the other night. However they are 12-26 ats vs Atlantic Division teams and 0-4 with just 1 spread win vs winning teams. They are 0-6 straight up vs the Knicks with just one spread win the last 3 years. The 13 point spread seems excessive which is why this is not a unit rated Play. Last season though the Knicks squashed Washington here 103-65. That could happen again if the Knicks are up for it.

Red Dog Sports
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Georgia vs South Florida
Play: Georgia +4.5.
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This looks to be a very low scoring game withn a total set at this amount. Georgia is coached by Mark Fox and they have had their share of injuries and players leaving early in the last few years. This game is part of the SEC vs. Big East Challenge. I think we see a close game in the upper 50's. Georgia faces Georgia Tech in their next game so I hope they don't look ahead to an improved Yellow Jacket team. Take Georgia +4.5 on Friday night.

Bobby Conn
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Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder
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Big number to lay here with the Thunder but I'm OK with it. They are coming off a blowout win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night and teams off a cover as a double digit favorite are 689-576 (54.5%). Utah is off a big win on the road against the Hornets, but they are going to struggled to keep up here on Friday.

Dave Cokin
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UCLA vs Stanford
Pick: UCLA
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Stanford handled the Bruins with relative ease last week, but I can see UCLA putting up a better battle this time. The dog has a nothing to lose attitude, the Cardinal just want to win the game. Big number tilts me to the UCLA side tonight.

Jim Feist
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks
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Minnesota comes home from a long road trip, finishing up in LA on Wednesday, a loss to the Clippers. The Timberwolves are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and they face a first place Milwaukee team that averages 98.4 ppg and is second in the NBA in assists. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and when these teams meet the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Play the Bucks!

JR O'Donnell
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Atlanta -9
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Hawks are in a super spot to play on tonight . We will fading these 3-12 Cleveland Cavs tonight as the J Oster has the ball game capped and power rated @ - 13 ... #'s punch in a nice clip as the Atlanta Hawks on a nice "Favorite" is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings & these puncless Cavaliers are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Oster has a strong edges here on the Defensive end.. We Cap the D first in all these ball games .... This baby gets UGLY @ the Phillips Arena in Atlanta .

Ray Monohan
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Oregon State vs. Kansas
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For a very good team the Jayhawks have been an awful bet this season going just 2-4 ATS thus far including 0-3 ATS. Still I like them to beat up on the visiting Beavers Friday night. They have one of the best true centers in the college game in Jeff Withey and since losing to Michigan State by 3 have beaten all their opponents by double digits - just not slaughtered them. That I what is anticipated for tonight against an Oregon State team not expected to challenge in the PAC 12. Kansas should wear them out and eventually win by 15.

Jimmy Boyd
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Cleveland Cavaliers +9
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The Hawks are being overvalued at home. They are 5-2 at home this season but only 1-6 ATS in those games as they have an average winning margin of only 2.0 points in these seven contests. Dating back to last season, they are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
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The Cavs are 1-9 on the road this season but 6-4 ATS in those games as they have an average losing margin of just 5.0 points in these contests.
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The Hawks are even 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team that has a losing road record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team that has a road winning percentage of less than .400.
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The road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Take the Cavs and the points.

Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Montana at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco
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Despite returning only one starter from last year, I think San Francisco is sitting on a really good season. UCLA transfer De'End Parker has already made a huge impact (20.3 ppg) and Cody Doolin provides experience at the point guard position. They also have Cole Dickerson on the front line who is averaging 13 rebounds per game. The Dons have improved each of Rex Walters' four seasons and should be considered a sleeper in the WCC with a nice mix of veterans and talented underclassmen. Montana meanwhile continues to be without the services of their best player, Will Cherry. The Grizzlies have fared well thus far without him but find themselves in a difficult spot with the second of back-to-back road games; the first of which a 15-point loss at BYU on Wednesday. Last season, San Francisco went to Montana and won by three – the Grizzlies have a super-strong home court and would go on to win 25 games. This year's Dons squad could be even better while Montana, away from its home floor and without Cherry, simply isn’t as strong. The money has come in on the favorite and I agree with the move.

DAVID BANKS

Kent State +7

It is not often that you put automatic BCS berth and MAC Championship Game in the same sentence, but that is what could be at stake Friday when the Northern Illinois Huskies (11-1) take on the Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) at Ford Field in Detroit at 7:00 ET on ESPN2. You see, one of the BCS rules says that if a champion from a non-qualifying conference, in this case the MAC, finishes in the top 16 on the final BCS Standings and ahead of the champion from a qualifying conference, then the team from the non-qualifying conference gets an automatic BCS bowl bid. That is significant here with the Big East currently not having a team in the top 25.

Back to matters on the field, both of these teams went undefeated inside the MAC and both are on long winning streaks. Northern Illinois has won 11 straight games and is one point from being undefeated, losing only 18-17 vs. Iowa opening week. The Huskies have in fact won 16 straight games inside the MAC and are the defending conference champions, beating Ohio 23-20 after trailing 20-0 in this game last season. NIU ranks 16th in the country this year in total offense with 482.6 yards per game and the Huskies have good balance, ranking ninth in rushing with 245.0 yards per game while adding 237.6 passing yards. Besides that balance though, the ultimate deciding factor in this game could be the Huskies' defense. That unit ranks a commendable 37th nationally, and perhaps most importantly, is allowing only 3.4 yards per rushing attempt.

Kent comes in riding a 10-game winning streak, losing only in a blowout to Kentucky in a bit of a head scratcher 47-14 back in Week 2. The Golden Flashes are averaging 402.2 total yards per contest, but they are much more one-dimensional than the Huskies are. Kent is right behind NIU in rushing offense at in 11th with 241.5 yards per game, but the Flashes are only averaging 160.7 passing yards on an ordinary 6.7 yards per pass attempt, which is why the fine Northern Illinois rushing defense is so significant. If the Huskies win that scrimmage battle and force Kent to pass, the Golden Flashes probably will not come close to their 34.4-point scoring average. Also, Kent is much weaker in on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 409.9 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play overall, a full yard higher than Northern Illinois's defensive average of 4.5 yards per snap. To make matters more difficult, Kent must deal with one of the biggest dual threats in the country in Huskies' quarterback Jordan Lynch, who has 10 straight 100-yard rushing games, over 1600 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns to go along with 2750 passing yards and 23 touchdown passes against just four interceptions.

Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings, although the teams did not meet this year, allowing both to go undefeated in conference play. The Huskies are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 MAC games.