SPORTS WAGERS
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Northern Illinois -7 -110 over Kent State
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This MAC Championship Game will be played in Detroit at Ford Field and while spotting 7 points may seem like a lot, the total is 57 and that means there is likely to be some scoring. Pencil in the Huskies as the team to score the bulk of those points. The Flashes' offense runs through all-purpose star Dri Archer. He’s the nation's leading kick returner, he’s second in yards per rushing attempt and is second among running backs in yards per reception. In short, Archer is your proverbial home run hitter but he has a bum ankle and he’ll face Northern Illinois’ staunch defense.
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The Huskies are a strong club, dominating teams on the strength of the MAC's best defense and an offense that, unlike Kent's rush-only attack , can run or throw with Heisman candidate Jordan Lynch under center. Lynch ranked behind only Johnny Manziel and Nick Florence in total offense. He is a 1,600-yard rusher with a 64 percent completion rate and has thrown 23 touchdowns to only four interceptions. NIU is the total package and will take their second straight MAC title because of its ability to neutralize Archer and the gaping disparity between Lynch and his weapons vs. Kent's one-dimensional game.
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UCLA +8½ -105 over STANFORD
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It was just last week when Stanford beat these same Bruins in Pasadena by 18 points. The Cardinal were a 2½ point choice and now they’re spotting six more here. So what's different this time around that makes taking the Bruins the more appealing choice? This time, UCLA can be expected to play a cleaner game. UCLA was flagged for 12 penalties totaling 135 yards. Its receivers dropped pass after pass. Stanford fumbled four times and recovered three of them while UCLA fumbled once and lost it. The Bruins only interception was overturned by a flag and Stanford landed a cheap score on special teams. Stanford backers shouldn’t plan on everything going the Cardinal way again.
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Perhaps most importantly is that this time it's a high-stakes game for both sides, whereas last week presented a must-win situation for Stanford but a game that UCLA was arguably better off losing. Expect this one to flow differently. While the Cardinal may still come out on top, Stanford will have to go to the wire to do so.
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Brooklyn Nets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic
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The Nets have won four straight games including consecutive big divisional games against the Knicks and Celtics. They were fortunate in the last game Rajon Rondo was ejected as he played only 17 minutes and Boston was unable to get anything going to try and get back in the game. The Celtics managed only 11 assists and had 15 turnovers after his exit. Brooklyn is now favored on the road for the first time in its last four games on the highway and this is a very tough spot. Besides coming off those two wins, the Nets have a game at Miami tomorrow so this is definitely a classic sandwich spot for them. Orlando meanwhile is coming off consecutive home losses against the Celtics and Spurs, the latter coming by 21 points so that makes this a good bounceback situation. The Magic are 4-4 at home so they have played much better there than they have on the road where they are just 1-5 on the season. We are catching excellent value as these teams met in Brooklyn with the Nets being favored by eight points and now they are favored by four points on the road and that makes this a very inflated line based on the venue change. Orlando has thrived in this spot in the past as it is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss. The points are being taken but an outright win is not out of the question.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors
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Yes I will play on this lowly Raptors team with just 3 wins. I'm hitting 60% in the NBA and sometimes you have to bet ugly to get the money. Suns in the middle of a 6 game road trip and this is their 3rd game in 4 nights. Raptors have some guys who can score, and should be able to exploit a poor Suns defense.
Tony George
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Kent State +7.5
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Northern Illinois is a machine on offense, with a great QB in Lynch. Kent State is also a solid team who did a hell of a job shutting down the potent Ohio U ground game last week. Interesting that Kent State is 11-1 after being out-yarded in 9 of those games! Why? Because they create turnovers and have great special teams, and in BIG GAMES that is a huge plus for any team. Northern Illinois has beaten the Flashes the last 5 times they have played dating back to 2002 so Kent wants to exact from revenge. UNI returns to this championship game for the third year in a row, Kent State a newcomer to the title game, will no doubt be able to trade points and I expect field position to be crucial and the fact that Kent State's offense eats more clock than UNI, is a factor.
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The Flashes defense leads the nation in interceptions as well, and they are an opportunistic bunch in the secondary. Tighter than you think from my perspective in this game, I will grab the points. If Kent State wins, they are projected at 16th in the BCS rankings to go to a BCS bowl folks, have no doubt they know that! Both teams also are excellent cover teams. The MAC is always a wild one, but I see a shootout here and the Flashes can hang.
Jack Jones
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Charlotte Bobcats +3.5
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The Charlotte Bobcats are certainly undervalued in the early going of the 2012-13 NBA season. Nobodoy expected this team to be 7-7 at this point, but the fact of the matter is that this is an improved roster with a head coach that is finally getting the most out of his players.
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The additions of Ramon Sessions (16.5 PPG, 4.3 APG), Ben Gordon (13.5 PPG, 42.9 % 3-Pointers), Michael Kidd-Golchrist (11.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Jeffery Taylor (7.5 PPG) have made a huge difference for this team. Returning starters Kemba Walker (16.5 PPG, 5.6 APG) and Byron Mullens (13.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG) have taken their games up a notch as well.
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Charlotte is 5-3 at home this season. It is allowing just 96.1 points per game on its home court, which is significantly better than their road mark of 105.7. They have already won more home games this season than they did all of last year (4-29).
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The 76ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Philly is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Bet the Bobcats Friday.
Wunderdog
Portland at Boston
Pick: Portland +5
Doc Rivers is frustrated by his team's lack of toughness. He called them out in a post-game interview after they were decisively beaten by the Nets at home their last time out. The Celtics are already getting bumps and bruises, and after their fight with the Nets Rajon Rondo is now suspended for two games, which won't help the cause here against Portland. The Blazers have taken the collar in the first three games of this road trip, but have an under-manned Boston team and should smell an opportunity for a win. Boston is just 4-4 at home and needed overtime to dispatch the then winless Wizards. The Celtics are simply not at full strength right now and are vulnerable. Boston is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games, and 1-4 ATS overall vs. a losing team. Make your play on Portland tonight.
John Ryan
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DePaul at Auburn
Play: AuburnFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game. Auburn has several game situations favoring them to cruise to a victory tonight. Auburn is a solid 11-2 ATS after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons; 15-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons; 9-0 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The simulator shows that DePaul will attempt between 14 and 18 free throws and that Auburn will have a strong rebounding game getting between 40 and 44 boards. In past games, DePaul is 3-17 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they attempt 14 to 18 free throws in a game over the last 3 seasons. Auburn is a resounding 12-3 against the money line (+9.6 Units) in home games when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997. Strong defensive rebounding serves to limit an opponent?s second chance scoring opportunities and this will be a dominant reason that Auburn wins this game.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Northern Illinois -6.5 over Kent State: Both of these teams have had great years, but I feel that Northern Illinois will finish the deal. The Huskies have just rolled over everyone this year, flowing the loss to Iowa in the opener. Not only have they won their last 11 games, but they did so by an average of 25.1 ppg. Offensively the huskies have a big edge as they average 80 ypg and 6.1 ppg more than the Golden Flashes average. The big weakness on defense for KSU is their pass defense that is 116th in the nation, allowing 281.9 ypg and will have problems vs the NIU offense that can throw, putting up 237.6 ypg through the air. The Huskies also have the edge on the defensive side of the ball where they allow 45 ypg and 6 ppg less than the Golden Flashes do. Too much offense and the better defense should give NIU another win by DD.
UCLA/ Stanford Over 44.5: I know that rain is expected in Stanford tonight, but I still feel that this ga,e will; go over the total. These teams met last week at UCLA and 52 points were scored and Stanford home games this year have averaged 54.7 ppg. UCLA comes into this game having played a slew of high scoring games, with their last 5 putting up 72.4 pg, while their road games this year have averaged 71.4 ppg. Those big numbers are due to the fact that UCLA's offense has been very good this year putting up 36 ppg, while the defense has struggled, allowing 25.8 ppg overall, including 33 ppg in their last 3 games. Now we all know the Stanford defense is very tough and they did hold UCLA to just 17 points last week, but really how much of their offense did the Bruins show to Stanford. They were already in the Title game and I heard reports that Jim Mora played that game not to win as he knew if they won they would face Oregon in the Title game and they did not want that. Yes Stanford beat the Ducks, but I would still rather face the Cardinal than the Ducks. I expect UCLA to open the playbook back up for this one and they will get their points off of this Cardinal defense. I also expect Stanford to be able to score plenty off of this weak UCLA defense. Look for this one to hit the 50's
SPORTS WAGERS
Denver +5 -105 over L.A. LAKERS
Both teams have underachieved this year with the Nuggets being at .500 and the Lakers being a game below. However, the Lakers have dropped three of four, they have not responded well to Mike D’Antoni’s system and they’re clearly the inferior team in every category (rebounding, bench, PPG, shooting percentages) except defense.
In last year’s playoffs, the Nuggets took the Lakers to seven games. This season, the Lakers have regressed badly. While they may turn it around at some point, taking back juice, points or both with a team that surely has a chance to win outright is the way to go here.
Steve Janus
Philadelphia 76ers -3.5
The 76ers come into this game playing some of their best basketball of the season. Philadelphia has won 5 of their last 7 games overall to improve their overall record to 9-6. Due to the fact that the 76ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games, I believe it has created big time value on tonight's game against a very mediocre Charlotte squad.
Philadelphia's biggest strength this season has been the effort they put out on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing just 87.4 ppg on the road this season and I look for the young Bobcats to struggle to get any rhythm going offensively. Charlotte averages just 94.7 ppg on the season.
The other key here is that the Bobcats are not a good defensive team, which is huge in this matchup. Philadelphia's offense hasn't been great this season, but have scored 100 in three straight and four of their last 5. The Bobcats are allowing 100.2 ppg and could find themselves in a big hole early.
These are the teams that Philadelphia has been able to handle with ease. The 76ers are 21-8 ATS vs poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. They are winning these games by an average score of 96-87, which allows you to see the value we are getting at 3.5!
Harry Bondi
KENT STATE (+7.5) over Northern Illinois
These two teams have been virtual ATM Machines all season long going a combined 18-5 against the spread. We see this as a battle between two dead-even teams so we'll gladly take the generous points. Both have put up impressive numbers on both sides of the ball, ranking No. 1 and 2 in the MAC in both rushing offense and defense. An area where Kent State has been dominant all season is in the turnover department, with a +20 differential. That means they know how to take care of the ball and force turnovers and in a game of this magnitude, that will be huge. The Flashes are also 4-1 this year as an underdog and in their last two games against top competition they went to Rutgers as a 14-point underdog and rolled to a 35-23 victory and beat Bowling Green on the road as a three-point dog. Take the touchdown head start tonight in a game that will be close throughout.
Rob Veno
Philadelphia at Charlotte
Play: Over
After seeing Philadelphia live at Wells Fargo Center Tuesday night versus Dallas, it seems like a good time to step in and look at them from an OVER perspective right now. Offensively, head coach Doug Collins crew operated quicker and much sharper in their sets for the majority of the game. The starting forward tandem of Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young are becoming a handful and figure to be just that for their counterparts Byron Mullens and Michael Kidd-Gichrist tonight. There are other matchups that look exploitable in this game as well. Sixers PG Jrue Holliday fares much better against size than quickness which indicates Bobcats PG Kemba Walker could have a very nice stat line tonight. I like the bench opportunities here too as the Mavericks reserve guards Darren Collison and Vince Carter scored fairly easily when matched with Malik Wayns (Villanova rookie) and Nick Young. That should work here too as Charlotte’s Ramon Sessions and Ben Gordon can take advantage. Love the reverse matchup too as Wayns is currently a one dimensional offensive sparkplug and Young is likely to get easy looks versus Gordon. Philly’s lack of defensive interior presence led them to play Kwame Brown nearly 16 minutes the other night to slow down the Mavs Chris Kaman but without a paint threat opposing them tonight, look for Collins to go with the quicker duo of Lavoy Allen and Spencer Hawes. Charlotte can be scoring challenged overall but the current offensive execution, favorable matchups and fairly low total of 189 presents enough advantages to recommend a small play on the OVER tonight.