Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 4

VEGAS EXPERTS

Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes

Although there is a mini-controversy brewing between Caps head coach Bruce Boudreau and star Alex Ovechkin, I look for Washington to cash at a decent price Friday evening at division rival Carolina. An OT win (w/ Ovechkin on the bench) over Anaheim on Tuesday sets us up well here as Washington is 17-2 when coming off an overtime win and 16-1 when coming off a win by 1 goal at home. Interesting note that the last six meetings between these teams have all been decided by exactly 1 goal. Not this time as Washington wins big.

Play on: Washington

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Kent State +1

I'm fading Central Michigan on the road this evening. The Chippewas are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS on the road this season where they are scoring just 18 ppg on 373 yards of offense. The Chipps won't be getting anything easy in this one against a Kent State defense that ranks 33rd in the country with 337 yards allowed per contest. This number goes down to 286 yards allowed at home. Turnovers have been an issue for Central Michigan, especially on the road where they have committed 16 in 6 games. There's a better than good chance turnovers will haunt the Chipps tonight as they go up against a team that has come up with 22 takeaways in 8 games. The Golden Flashes even got Alabama to cough it up 5 times. Offense has been the issue for Kent State this season, but the Golden Flashes should find some success tonight against a defense that gives up 34.5 points and 422 yards per game on the road. Take Kent State.

Jim Feist

Avalanche vs. Stars
Play: Under 5½

Reason: A pair of strong defensive teams meet on the ice Friday. The under is 5-0-1 in the Colorado Avalanche's last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is outstanding defensively, fourth in the NHL in goals allowed with a Top 10 penalty killing unit. The under is 17-8-2 in the Stars last 27 home games. And when these teams face off against each other, the Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Play the Avalanche/Stars Under the total.

James Patrick Sports

Boise State vs. UNLV

The Boise State match-up with TCU is on deck so this could certainly be a flat against UNLV. The Runnin Rebels have actually been a capable home underdog and both wins on the season were in Las Vegas. UNLV got a nice win last week in an exciting finish against Colorado State and this squad under HC Bobby Hauck has seen the home team cash winning ATS tickets at a (17-2) rate with him as head coach. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday Night complimentary selection in College Football isn't pretty but it doesn't have to be as long as it pays off. Take UNLV Runnin Rebels plus the ridiculous number against Boise State Broncos.

FREE NCAAF PLAY FOR 11/4/2011: We're siding with the Colorado Buffalos +21.5 over the USC Trojans. USC is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games away from home as a double-digit favorite. With a short week to prepare, and coming off of an emotionally draining triple-overtime loss to Stanford, we'll fade USC to cover by 4 scores on the road tonight. Colorado is actually 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games overall, and 6-2-1 in their last 9 contests as a home dog. The only real beatdown they've suffered at home this year came to the high-powered Oregon Ducks. And in that game, the Ducks were not coming off a difficult game on a short week. The USC defense will be still licking their wounds from Saturday, and Buffaloes QB Tyler Hansen should be able to at least make it interesting. Colorado is averaging 377.3 yards/game at home this year, with 249 of those being passing yards. USCs secondary is allowing 245+ yards per contest on the road so look for the Buffalos to have some success through the air. And the fact that Colorado doesn't turn the ball over often at home will help to keep them within the numbers. The only real concern with the Buffaloes this year has been the amount of penalties they pile up on both sides of the ball. In our experience, young teams like this often correct their mishaps in the final month of College ball. We expect Colorado to show some signs of improvement in the penalty department tonight, and look for the mentally and emotionally fatigued USC Trojans to get called for a few more than usual. Colorado keeps it withing the numbers tonight. Take the Buffalos and the points. Our Free Plays are now 125-67-1 after a tough overtime loss last night. Sign up to receive our Free Picks via email.

NHL Predictions

Dallas Stars -115

The Dallas Stars come into tonight's game with a solid 8-3 record. Tonight's starter Keri Lehtonen is 8-1 on the year with a 1.75 GAA and .947 SV%. Dallas has won 7 of their last 9 games coming into tonight, with their two losses coming against Los Angeles. The Avalanche have slowed down considerably losing 3 of their last 4 games and 4 of their last 6, dropping them to 7-5 on the year. I'm not knocking the Avs, who are off to a much better start than anyone would have guessed, but 6 of their 7 wins have been 1 goal games which could have gone either way. Dallas is relying a ton of Lehtonen, but is seems to working out, as they are averaging just 2.09 goals against per game. The Stars should have fresh legs coming into tonight with 5 days of rest. Note that the Stars are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. The Stars have won 7 of these two teams last 10 meetings in Dallas. With the way the Stars and Lehtonen are playing so far this season they are a team I am confident in backing, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Avalanche start to slide a little bit from their hot start (as they've already began doing). Dallas takes tonight's game at home, and there is good value at -115 on it.

SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA +105 over Montreal

The Canadiens have three nice wins in a row over Boston twice and over the Flyers once. That’s nice, it really is but let’s not forget that the Habs lost six straight prior to that and scored one goal in four of those six games. The Habs favored on the road here is an overreaction by the market to a popular team that has won three in a row. Meanwhile, the Sens are no flukes. This is without doubt the most undervalued team in the league. Ottawa was predicted by most to be nothing this year but these guys are coming together a lot quicker than anyone anticipated. They’ve scored three goals or more in seven straight games and they won six of those seven games. The Sens are playing with confidence and they believe in what they’re doing. Nate Greening, Stephane Da Costa and Erik Karlsson are three outstanding young talents that have not looked a bit out of place. Karlsson is scary good and he solidifies and makes the whole defense better. Montreal is not the better club here, yet they’re favored on the road. That provides us with a good opportunity to cash in on the misperceptions. Play: Ottawa +105 (Risking 2 units).

CAROLINA +116 over Washington

Another live pooch at home sees the Canes taking back a tag against a Caps team that is 8-2 but that has allowed 11 goals against in their past two games. That’s something that should not be ignored, as the Caps weak defense has been masked by its winning ways. Washington is also not in the best spot, as they returned home from a two-game Western Canada trip before hosting the Ducks on Wednesday. That’s home for one game and on the road again for two more. These two met in Washington in the season opener for both and Washington won in OT. What we know for sure is that Cam Ward is one of the top goalies in the league and a goaltending edge in this day and age is huge. We also know that the Canes have picked up eight out of a possible nine points in their last four home games against Boston, Ottawa, Chicago and Tampa and they can surely keep that going against the Caps. Washington is off to a hot start, thus, this is a sell high opportunity. Play: Carolina +116 (Risking 2 units).

Colorado +106 over DALLAS

The Avalanche appear to be a lot more dangerous on the road this season and until that changes there’s no reason to back off them. In fact, Colorado has won six of seven road games and this assignment is surely no more difficult than those others. The Stars are a misleading 8-3. This is not a 72% winning team and thus, a correction in their W/L record is forthcoming. Rarely have the Stars been the better team in any of their eight wins. Kari Lehtonen has carried them the whole season thus far and he’s the lone reason they’re 8-3. The Stars keep getting badly outplayed and they simply can’t keep winning when that happens. The Dallas Stars are a bubble team at best and even that might be a stretch come April. The Stars are going to be a great fade when they’re favored and if Lehtonen keeps standing on his head and recoding wins, so be it. We’ll take our chances against a team that has no chance of maintaining a 72% win percentage. Play: Colorado +106 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +107 over TAMPA BAY

The Blackhawks taking back a tag against the Lightning is about as good as it gets tonight. Chicago is playing some damn good hockey and these guys have the same fire in them they had when they won the cup two years ago. Offensively, it looks like a clinic out there every night for the Blackhawks and that is likely going to pose a huge problem for the Bolts slow and extremely flawed group of defensemen. Keeping Chicago below four goals is a big challenge and one that the Lightning may not be capable of. The Bolts have picked things up with four wins in six games after an awful start. Having said that, of those four wins only one was impressive and that was when they dominated the Islanders after five straight losses. In those other three wins, the Bolts were average at best in a 1-0 win over the Jets and they were extremely fortunate in back-to-back wins over the Sabres. Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis are off to slow starts offensively and Tampa Bay’s leading scorer is defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron. Tampa favored over the Blackhawks is wrong and if you make one hockey bet tonight, this should probably be it. Play: Chicago +107 (Risking 2 units).

Pass CFL

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at Central Michigan to cover against Kent State.

Central Michigan is bit better than Kent State, offensively.

Kent State struggles on offense, averaging 12.7 points game and 201 total yards. It scored 27 points last week against Bowling Green, but that was taking advantage of some turnovers.

Central Michigan’s defense is no great shakes, as it gives up 32.1 points and 409 total yards. But with the anemic Kent State offense, it should be able to hold its own.

Quarterback Ryan Radcliff, who has a lot of promise, but has been inconsistent this season, leads Central Michigan. He completes 57.5 percent of his passes and has 2,375 yards. He has thrown 17 touchdowns, but also 12 interceptions. Central Michigan will try to air it out.

Central Michigan has to win the turnover battle. If it does that, it has enough offense to beat Kent State.

3♦ CENTRAL MICHIGAN

MATT RIVERS

Free play for Friday night is the Kent Golden Flashes as the small home choice over Central Michigan.

Both teams looming at the bottom of the MAC standings, but it is the combination of injuries and the multitude of turnovers that the Chippewas suffer from that make them the go-against this evening at Dix Stadium. That and the fact CMU is on a 1-8 pointspread slide their last 9 games!

Kent State at least has a defense that is ranked at a respectable #32 in the nation, and get to play this contest at home in front of the faithful who get a rare national television appearence.

Central Michigan is just 4-13 against the spread their last 17 on line, so in a battle of the lesser-of-two-evils, I am forced to back the "home cooking" as the Golden Flashes edge the Chippewas.

1♦ KENT STATE

JEFF BENTON

Your Friday night freebie is Kent State as the MAC home favorite against Central Michigan.

Let's not pull punches here, this is one ugly primetime contest, as Central Michigan is just 3-6 straight up, while Kent State is just 2-6 straight up. The difference tonight is the fact the Chippewas are playing on the road, and they bring in a 1-7 road spread mark to Dix Stadium.

The Chipps are also on a protracted 4-13 spread dip their last 17 lined affairs, and have a team that is ranked #114th in turnover margin. That being the case, there is no real reason you can trust CMU to deliver on the road in a game they pretty much have to win outright to cover.

Sure, things at Kent are not much better, but they do own the better defense, and they do at least own the homefield advantage for a rare ESPN appearence. That will make the difference in this battle of MAC bottom-feeders.

Back the Golden Flashes to record a rare home win and cover tonight.

2♦ KENT STATE

BANG THE BOOK

USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+21, 58.5)

After losing a tremendous triple overtime duel this past week, the USC Trojans will lock horns with the lowly Colorado Buffaloes in NCAA football betting action on Friday night.

Give the Men of Troy credit, as they proved that they could stand toe to toe with the best teams in the country last Saturday in a game that started with regional TV coverage and ended nationally in three overtimes. QB Matt Barkley proved that he is still one of the top signal callers in the land and that he can strike from anywhere on the field. After a relatively sluggish offensive start to the year, the unit once again came forth with a great effort, netting 34 points in regulation and 48 overall for the game against a stout Stanford Cardinal defense, marking the second time this year that the squad reached the 48-point barrier and the fourth straight game with at least 30 points. Head Coach Lane Kiffin never pulls punches either, and he made his opinions clear in the postgame reports on Saturday that he was upset with the Pac-12 officiating. Don’t think for one second that those complaints might not be heard loud and clear by the refs in this game, and a close call might end up going his way as a result.

And then there is Colorado, which is clearly the worst team in the Pac-12 and is probably the worst team amongst the AQ schools in the country. The Buffs had to hope that moving to the Pac-12 would help out with some games against different rivals, but in the end, the bottom of this conference is better than they are, just as was the case in the Big XII as well. There certainly won’t be a game in which the Buffaloes are favored for the rest of the year barring some strange turn of events, and odds have it, they are going to suffer four more double digit defeats when it is said and done as well. First year Head Coach Jon Embree knows that there isn’t a whole heck of a lot that he can do about it either. His top back, RB Rodney Stewart has been out of action for the past two weeks with a knee injury, and though he is expected to come back in this one, he is still doing so against a great defense for a rushing attack that ranks No. 114 in the nation at just 90.0 yards per game.

Colorado Buffaloes @ USC Trojans Pick: There’s a point that the oddsmakers have just overreacted too much, and we tend to think that this is the point for that. The Buffs were 30.5 point underdogs against Oregon and 32 point underdogs against Arizona State, and at some point, the team is going to figure out how to stick inside of a number of this type of a magnitude. To keep this one within 17 or so would be a triumph. Back Colorado.

PICK: Colorado Buffaloes +21

DR. BOB

USC (-21.5) 39 COLORADO 23

Colorado has been besieged by injuries the past month and the lack of quality players coincided with the Buffaloes facing 4 very good teams (Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Arizona State) with great offenses. The results have not been pretty, as the Buffs lost those 4 games by an average score of 12-48. However, while the defense still has injury issues, the offense gets has their 2 best playmakers back this week. Quarterback Tyler Hansen has had a good season (6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and just 6 interceptions on 282 pass attempts) and Hansen appears healthy after coming off the bench last week against Arizona State (he missed half of the Oregon game). More important than having Hansen healthy is the return of big play WR Paul Richardson and multi-talented RB Rodney Stewart, who are both expected to play this week after missing time recently. Richardson missed the last 4 games after averaging a healthy 8.9 yards per pass thrown to him (474 yards on 53 targets) the first 5 games and Hansen also benefits from getting back reliable receiving running back Rodney Stewart, who is not only the top rusher but is the best weapon in the passing game. Stewart has 435 receiving yards on 44 passes thrown to him, which is an incredible 9.9 yards per attempt (running backs normally average around 6 ypa). With Richardson and Stewart both playing Hansen had even better stats and my math model projects a solid 349 total yards at 5.3 yppl in this game for the Buffaloes.

Colorado’s defense is still banged up and I think the last 4 games, in which the Buffs gave up 542 yards at 8.0 yppl and 48.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 6.8 yppl and 43.7 points per game against an average team, is indicative of their current form. With that being the case I project USC at 518 yards at 7.9 yppl and 39 points after upgrading the Trojans’ offense for RB Curtis McNeal being the featured back with Marc Tyler likely sidelined this week (McNeal has averaged 6.5 ypr and Tyler just 4.5 ypr). Colorado’s recent series of blowout losses to great teams has made them a bit underrated, especially with their offensive playmakers back from injury this week. My math model gives the Buffaloes a profitable 55.2% chance of covering and I can certainly see a letdown from USC this week after their heart breaking triple-overtime loss to unbeaten Stanford. USC is not going to a bowl game this season to due NCAA sanctions and they treated last week’s game like their bowl game, so a letdown against the lowly Buffs is certainly reasonable. I like Colorado plus the points in this game.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Play: Washington Capitals

Washington has won 8 of the first 9 and is the #1 ranked team in scoring. Tonight they travel to Carolina to take on a Hurricane team they have defeated 6 of the last 7 times and which has the 25th ranked scoring defense. Washington is 27-5 off a 1 goal win while Carolina is just 5-15 off a win by 2 or more goals and 10-23 in the first half vs winning teams the last 2+ years. Washington is 32 games over .500 vs losing teams the last 3 seasons. Look for Washington to Capitalize on the Carolina defense here.

Jack Jones

Central Michigan/Kent State OVER 43.5

These are two of the worst team in the MAC this season. Central Michigan is 3-6 and cannot stop anybody on defense, while Kent State is 2-6 and they cannot score on offense. I believe there will be plenty of scoring in this one to push it OVER the posted total by game's end.

Central Michigan is scoring 22.8 points/game behind 389.3 total yards/game this season. They have had no problem moving the football, especially through the air where they are averaging 264 passing yards/game. QB Ryan Radcliff is completing 57.5 percent of his passes for 2,375 yards with 17 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

The Chippewas have been atrocious defensively. CMU is giving up 32.1 points/game and 409 total yards/game overall, including 34.5 points and 422 yards on the road. The OVER is 6-1 in Central Michigan's last 7 games overall, and they have combined with their opponents to score 45 or more points in all seven.

Kent State is giving up 26.4 points and 337 total yards/game. There's no denying that Kent State's offense is one of the worst in the country, but they should be able to put up one of the best outputs of the season tonight against this soft CMU defense. The Flashes are coming off a 27-point performance against Bowling Green last Saturday.

The OVER is 22-7-1 in Chippewas last 30 games as an underdog, including 19-6-1 in their last 26 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 5-1 in CMU's last 6 conference games, and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The OVER is 4-1 in Golden Flashes last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0. Bet the OVER Friday.