Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 5,2010

Marc Lawrence

Miami Heat at New Orleans Hornets
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

When the Hornets host the Big Three Egos Friday night at the Bee Hive they will take the court knowing that Miami is 5-1-5 ATS in this series when playing off back-to-back wins, including 0-9 ATS as a visitor. With the Heat nice and fat off its 32-point mauling of Minnesota and scheduled to return home to host the Nets tomorrow night, look for the Hornets to improve to 8-3 SU and 11-0 ATS in this series in this upset maker tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on New Orleans.

Tom Freese

Washington Wizards at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks

New York is 7-2 ATS their last 9 games with the Wizards. New York is 4-0 ATS their last 4 games vs. a team with a win percentage f under 40%. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS their last 5 Conference games and they are 4-1 ATS when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. Washington is 4-11 ATS their last 15 games vs. Eastern Conference teams. The Wizards are 3-7 ATS their 10 games as underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5. The Wizards are 1-5 ATS off a straight up win.

John Ryan

Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals
Prediction: Boston Bruins

5* graded play on Boston as they take on Washington in NHL action set to start at Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 24-9 making 25.1 units since 1997. Play on road teams against the money line after 2 straight wins by 2 goals or more and now facing an opponent after scoring 5 goals or more in 2 straight games. Boston is a rock solid 23-11 against the money line (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 21-4 against the money line (+16.9 Units) off a win by 2 goals or more over a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bruins.

Scott Rickenbach

Washington @ New York
PICK: Washington +6.5

After getting blasted by Orlando in their season opener, the Wizards responded by giving a strong effort against the Hawks and then getting a hard-earned OT win over the Sixers. The tight loss to Atlanta saw Washington easily cover while the win over Philly saw the Wizards persevere to get their first straight-up win of the season. These two games are big stepping stones for Washington and, having now had two full days off, we expect the Wizards to build off those games and take advantage of facing a Knicks team that is in a tough scheduling spot. Yes, New York is now 2-2 on the season but they had to battle hard to win last night’s game at Chicago.

Even though New York got the win last night, the Knicks did allow 112 points in the game and their tired legs on defense must now face the fresh legs of the Wizards. That makes this a tough spot for New York. The Knicks had a good shooting night on Thursday but it was the first time this season that they had made more than 43.5% of their shots from the field. Conversely, the Wizards have made at least 47.4% of their shots in each of their last two games. The Knicks have allowed a shooting percentage of at least 48.4% to each of their last three opponents while the Wizards allowed just 42% shooting to the Hawks in their most recent road game. We see a lot of line value with the line already being bumped up on the Knicks this morning. John Wall has been huge for the Wizards early this season and they may even get Gilbert Arenas back for tonight’s game as well. We’ll grab the generous points being offered here as the Knicks fall short after last night’s big upset win. New York may eke out a win here but we don’t see them covering this rising number! Play Washington plus the points as a 6* Regular Play selection.

DAVID CHAN

Central Florida @ Houston
PICK: Central Florida -2

Houston has a strong offensive system in place. The Cougars even have showed balance in their last two games running more than throwing.

But the Cougars aren't going to get it done with a fourth-string quarterback, freshman David Piland, against Central Florida's upper tier defense.

The Knights are holding foes to 16.5 points per game, which is 11th-best in the nation. They are giving up less than 280 yards per game, ranking ninth in total defense.

Houston hasn't seen a defense this strong since it met Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl last season. The Cougars lost 47-20 in that game.

The Cougars have a sad history when meeting upper tier defenses failing to win the last 13 times they've faced a team that ranked in the top 20 in both total defense and scoring defense.

Central Florida knows how to cover on the road, too, going 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road matchups.

BIG AL

Milwaukee @ Indiana
PICK: Over 194

Indiana opened its season with a very high-scoring game -- a 122-109 loss in the Alamo City to the Spurs -- and then followed that up with another high-scoring game, a 104-101 victory over the defensive-minded Bobcats. But after playing two 'overs,' the Pacers have now gone 'under' the total in their last two games -- both against Philadelphia -- and the reason why is easy to see: Indy's field goal percentage has dropped every single game. In their loss to San Antone, the Pacers shot 53.2%, and followed that with a 45% performance vs. Charlotte, and then 41 and 31% efforts vs. Philly. But Milwaukee is playing very poor defense thus far this season, and has allowed its opponents to shoot 47% in its last three games, and that's very unlike a Scott Skiles-coached club. I look for that trend to continue on Friday night, and for this Central Division match-up to sail 'over' the total.

JIM FEIST

HEAT / HORNETS
PLAY: UNDER

Everyone is focused on offensive players like LeBron James and Chris Paul, but both these defenses have been outstanding. Miami is allowing 84 points per game (tops in the NBA) and 38% shooting, riding a 4-1 run under the total. New Orleans is 6th in the NBA allowing 93.8 ppg and just .428% shooting by opponents and 4-0 under the total. Look for more defense than oddsmakers expect, Play the Heat/Hornets Under the total.

Craig Trapp

Nets vs. Magic
Play: Under 196

ORL is top 5 defense in the league and NJN might be the worst offensive team. Add in all three head to head were very low scoring going under in all three. ORL wins easy here and the backups will be in most of 4th quarter. The NETS will struggle to get 80 pts which will make this under too easy.

EZWINNERS

Orlando Magic -16

The Nets are an improving team and are able to contend against the weaker teams in the league, but this is a bad match up for New Jersey. Orlando feasts on bad teams and they are already 2-0 against the spread this season as a double digit favorite as they demolished the T-Wolves by 42 points and downed the Wizards by 29. The Nets top offensive weapon is center Brook Lopez and I expect him to have a tough night going against Dwight Howard who is the best defensive big man in the game. With Lopez held in check, New Jersey won't be able to score enough points to keep this one close. Dating back to last season the Magic are 12-1 against the spread in their last thirteen games as a favorite of eleven or more points and I expect their success as a heavy favorite to continue in this game. Lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Boston +1.24 over WASHINGTON

The Bruins have already beaten the Caps twice and there’s no reason why they can’t do it again. They have the blueprint this year and not only have the beaten them but they beat them handily, outscoring the Caps by a combined 7-2. The Bruins have the Blue Notes on deck tomorrow and while everyone would like to see a Thomas/Halak match-up, this game against the Caps is a Conference game that is more crucial than a non-conference one so expect Thomas tonight and Rask tomorrow. The Bruins are playing great hockey and appear to be less flawed than any team in the NHL. They have a slew of playmakers, a great defense and this season's #1 goaltender. The Caps are always dangerous but they’re very flawed on defense. They allowed the Leafs back in it in their last game after taking a 3-1 lead into the third. They eventually won in OT but when the Leafs score four on you, that’s a big concern. The Caps are 4-0 in OT so in reality they could just as easily be 4-8 as oppose to 8-4. Washington has also had a rather easy schedule with two games vs Ottawa and Atlanta and single games against the Islanders, Calgary, Carolina, Minnesota and the Leafs. This year they’re beatable and the Bruins have them thinking. Play: Boston +1.24 (Risking 2 units).

Carolina +1.28 over FLORIDA

The Canes have goal scorers and offense while the Panthers do not. Florida outshot Atlanta 55-23 in its last game and lost 4-3. That’s frustrating as hell and now the Panthers have dropped three of its last four to Ottawa, Toronto and the aforementioned Thrashers. Both Toronto and Ottawa are hugely challenged offensively yet the Panthers still couldn’t muster up anything. It also doesn’t help their state of mind to come home and play to an empty arena. Meanwhile, the Canes are so dangerous. Jeff Skinner is playing with Eric Staal and that’s one of the deadliest duos in the business. Cam Ward looks better than ever. Carolina has played a tough schedule in terms of intense travel and once they get on an even keel with the rest of the league they’ll be even more difficult to play against. This edition of the Canes wants to win and they’re playing with a determination that hasn’t been seen in Carolina since its Stanley Cup win a few years ago. This is a live pooch against an offensively challenged host. Play: Carolina +1.28 (Risking 2 units).

Montreal +1.07 over BUFFALO

When Ryan Miller went down earlier in the week, coach Lindy Ruff immediately turned to Jhonas Enroth. That’s a vote of confidence for Patrick Lalime, isn’t it? Enroth started against Boston and was yanked after allowing three goals on 12 shots. The Sabres have yet to win a home game this season and have now dropped four straight and five of six. Miller is still out, Tyler Myers is a nasty –12 and nothing is going right for the Sabres. The Canadiens are undefeated on the road. They’re coming off back-to-back losses for the first time this season so you know they’ll be ready to go tonight. The Canadiens win ugly but they win and they deserved a better fate against both Florida and Columbus in its last two games and a similar effort here will likely earn them a victory. The Habs play a methodical, tough to beat style and a frustrated and fragile Sabres team is only likely to get more frustrated playing the Habs. Since OT was introduced many, many years ago no team in the NHL has more OT wins than the Canadiens. Play: Montreal +1.07 (Risking 2 units).

Anaheim +1.16 over PITTSBURGH

There’s no reason whatsoever why the Pens should be favored here. Pittsburgh has dropped four of its last five games with only win over that stretch coming in Carolina against an exhausted Canes club. The Pens are getting solid play from just one of its four lines and we don’t have to tell you where the production is coming from. Marc Andre Fleury was supposed to be the go-to-guy this season but he’s been really shaky and that has created a dilemma because Fluery is being paid a fortune while Brent Johnson makes a pork chop. Johnson was playing well so they went with him in the last game and the Pens lost 5-2 in Dallas. That opens the door once again for Fleury and frankly he can’t be trusted. That’s the problem with signing one-year wonders to huge contracts but most teams don’t get it. Anyway, Jonas Hillier is a stud, the Ducks have some serious firepower and the Ducks have just one home loss all season. Wrong side favored. Play: Anaheim +1.16 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Rangers +1.14 over NEW JERSEY

The Devils temporarily got a monkey off its back with a win in Chicago on Wednesday but so what. They’re in a difficult spot tonight in that they return home from a tough six game trip and it’s not going to take much for the crowd to turn on them in an instant. It’s not even that they played well in Chicago either. The Blackhawks played poorly too and Marty Turco allowed at least two softies. The Devils blew a 2-0 lead, scored a fluke third goal and added two empty netters so pay little attention to the five goals they scored. Fact is, they still have only four wins in 14 games, its defense is in shambles and they’re having nothing but trouble scoring. The Rangers played last night in Philly and lost 4-1. However, they’re 2-0 this season in the second game of back-to-backs. The Rangers have won two of its last three, five of its last eight and while they, too, are banged up, they at least give it their all and they’re winning without some of its best players. That builds confidence and character. Play: N.Y. Rangers +1.14 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

WINNIPEG +3 over Calgary

Meaningless game in that the Stamps have home field throughout while the Bombers can’t wait for the season to end. That sets up a difficult spot to predict the outcome. In addition, the Bombers have to go with its fourth string QB, Joey Elliott. Still, the Stamps won big last week over Hamilton and reassured themselves that they really are that good. This is a week where the Stamps only goal will be to stay healthy in preparation for next week’s playoffs. That certainly opens up an opportunity for the Bombers to at least give its loyal fans something to cheer about and if they decide to show up they have a great chance to win. Can’t imagine for a second the Stamps want any part of this game and an uninterested team is one to avoid. Play: Winnipeg +3 (No bets).

Frank Jordan

Central Florida vs. Houston U
Play: Houston U +1.5

This is a Conference USA match of two of their better teams as they are a combined 8-1 in conference play. Central Florida is 6-2 on the year and 4-0 in conference play as they hit the road and head to Houston. Central Florida is 2-1 in their first three road games. Houston is 5-3 on the year but better in conference play with a 4-1 record. At home this year they are 3-1 and returning to the home stadium after three straight road games there they were 2-1. Look for the Houston faithful to be fired up to have their boys back home and cheer they on to victory.

Rocketman Sports

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Florida Panthers

Carolina is 1-3 this year after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game. Florida is 2-0 this year after allowing 4 goals or more. Florida is 5-1 SU and ATS at home vs Carolina the past 3 years. Hurricanes are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. Hurricanes are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Hurricanes are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Panthers are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Panthers are 25-11 in their last 36 games as a favorite. Panthers are 24-11 in their last 35 games as a home favorite. Panthers are 17-8 in their last 25 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Favorite is 22-5 in the last 27 meetings. Home team is 37-14-4 in the last 55 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Florida tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Washington Wizards +6.5

This is a tough spot for the Knicks playing back-to-back after such a gratifying win in Chicago last night. It will be extremely difficult for them to bring the same intensity against a Washington squad considered to be one of the worst in the league.

Meanwhile, John Wall and company will be jacked up for a date at Madison Square after notching their first win of the season earlier this week. Wall had 29 points, 13 assists and tied a franchise record with nine steals in that win. The No. 1 overall pick has scored 57 points and dished out 22 dimes in the last two games. He will be a handful in the open floor against a Knicks team that must improve its transition defense.

The Knicks are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win and 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS win. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the points as Washington takes the Knicks right down to the wire.