Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5
Minnesota is happy to be back home where it has played well this season, losing by just 1-point to Sacramento and defeating and defeating Milwaukee by 11. I know the Hawks are out of the gate fast with a 5-0 record, but they'll have a tough time getting up for this one with big matchups against Phoenix and Orlando up next. I know Michael Beasley is listed as questionable for tonight's game, but so is Atlanta's Jamal Crawford. Plus, Marvin Williams is expected to miss the contest. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest and just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Also, the underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this matchup. Atlanta is getting too much respect on the road because of its fast start here, especially when you consider the key players that are banged up. Take the points.
Info Plays
3* on Indiana Pacers -2
Reasons the Pacers cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (MILWAUKEE) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This is a 34-8 ATS System hitting 81% since 1996.
2.) The Bucks are overvalued early in the season after reaching the playoffs last year. That's been evident by their 1-4 start to the season. Milwaukee is not as good as they were a year ago, while the Pacers are much improved. The Bucks are only scoring 90.4 PPG while shooting 40.5% from the floor. Bet Indiana at home.
Bettor Wins
Central Florida vs. Houston U
Play: Houston U =1.5
In their last three games, Houston has over 150 yards rushing with two victories. The resurgence of the run game has been impressive, considering the team lost leading rusher Charles Sims to start the season after being ruled ineligible. We're taking Houston as a home dog + 1.5
Black Widow
1* on Milwaukee Bucks +2
The Milwaukee Bucks are certainly frustrated after reaching the playoffs last season and then starting 1-4 this year. But the Bucks have faced a brutal schedule, and it finally softens up a bit tonight as they take on the Indiana Pacers Friday. We expect Milwaukee to get on track against the Pacers, who they absolutely owned last season. The Bucks went a perfect 4-0 against the Pacers last year. Indiana is playing terrible defense once again this season, allowing 102.5 points/game while teams are shooting 46.5% from the floor. The Pacers are only shooting 42.4% from the field this season offensively. What's great about Milwaukee is that they always get after it defensively, and are yielding just 94.8 points/game this season which even includes an overtime game against Boston last time out. The Bucks are 30-8 ATS (+21.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. We'll back the better defensive team tonight who are more hungry for a victory. Take the Bucks and the points.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Lakers -13.5
The Los Angeles Lakers have looked every bit as good as they did en route to winning the NBA Finals last season. The Lakers are off to a 5-0 start for the second time in the last three seasons, winning by an average of 13.0 PPG thus far. Toronto is 1-3 this season, and in my opinion they will challenge for the league's worst record when it's all said and done in 2010-11. That's because the Raptors are starting five players who likely wouldn't start on many other teams in DeMar DeRozen, Jarrett Jack, Reggie Evans, Linas Kleiza and Andrea Bargnani.
Kobe Bryant is looking 100% healthy and he says he feels that way, and he's coming off the 17th triple-double of his career in a 112-100 win at Sacramento last time out. The two-time reigning NBA finals MVP has averaged 33.6 points and shot 49.8 percent in his last 10 home games versus Toronto. That included an unforgettable 81-point effort in a 122-104 win over the Raptors on Jan. 22, 2006. Los Angeles has averaged 110.3 points during an eight-game home winning streak against Toronto. The Raptors haven't beaten the Lakers on the road since Dec. 28, 2001. The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Lakers Friday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Utah Jazz -1.5
The Jazz have hit on all cylinders in back-to-back games, and I like them to keep rolling at Golden State tonight. The Warriors would have a tough time winning this one with a healthy Stephen Curry. Because Curry is banged up, and may not even go, I don't see Golden State being able to come out on top here. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Golden State and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Lay the points.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
546- 393 run 59 %
Free play :FRI Under Cav's 188
oops Thurs under 204 Chi Bulls TY Wed Over 208 Lakers over the total, PPD TUES Magic -7 MOn:TY SA Spurs -7 TY Sun Green Bay +6 TY Sat Cent. Florida -7
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
546- 393 run 59 %
Free play :FRI Under Cav's 188
oops Thurs under 204 Chi Bulls TY Wed Over 208 Lakers over the total, PPD TUES Magic -7 MOn:TY SA Spurs -7 TY Sun Green Bay +6 TY Sat Cent. Florida -7
Jeff Scott Sports
Houston / UCF Over 62.5
Normally I wouldn't take an over this high, with a defense like UCF's (11th in points allowed, 16.5) on the field, but i feel this has the makings of a shootout. The Houston defense has been a sore spot for them, allowing 28 ppg and 391.3 ypg and will be facing a HOT UCF offense that is averaging 41.2 ppg in their last 4 games, while overall they have averaged 32.9 ppg. Yes Houston wil be going up against a tough defense, but this team can score on anyone. Houston comes in averaging 41.6 ppg overall (8th), including 47 ppg at home. Speaking of home, their home games have averaged 77.5 ppg on the year, while the last 2 games in this series have put up 75.5 ppg. Just sit back and enjoy the fireworks in this one.
Bobby Maxwell
Central Florida (-2') at HOUSTON
For my comp selection, go ahead and lay the points and play Central Florida on the road tonight in Houston in this key C-USA matchup. The Knights have won four straight and gone 6-0 ATS lately and they are finding themselves right now and will march in and take care of the Cougars.
Central Florida might have been looking ahead to this one on Saturday when they beat East Carolina 49-35, but they still cashed as eight-point favorites. The 35 points was the most they allowed all season. This defense can play, allowing 27 points or less in the previous five games, and giving up just 16.5 points on the season and 102.6 yards rushing. On the road, the Knights have been even better, allowing 13.7 points a game and 85.3 yards per game on the ground.
Houston was riding high early in the season, but they lost their top two QBs in the third week of the season and struggled a bit immediately after, losing three of four games. The Cougars have won two straight at SMU and at Memphis, winning by a combined 101-37 and cashing in both games.
These two collided in Florida last season with the Knights taking a 37-32 victory and cashing as 3 ½-point home ‘dogs. Central Florida comes into this one on ATS surges of 5-0 as a favorite, 4-0 in November games, 10-1 on the road, 20-7-1 overall and 22-8-1 in conference contests.
Central Florida has the running game that can keep the explosive offense of Houston off the field. The Knights have averaged about 200 yards per game on the ground and RB Ronnie Weaver is putting up 102 yards per night in his last six games. Defensively, this Knights’ squad is 13th in the country against the rush and 15th in the nation against the pass, plus they lead C-USA in sacks with 19.
I like the fact the Knights are looking to win this with defense. Play Central Florida to win this one and get the cover.
2♦ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Stephen Nover
Central Florida (-2') at HOUSTON
Central Florida has the great defense. Houston has an excellent offense. Look for Central Florida's defense to trump the Cougars' offense now being run by freshman David Piland following injuries to Case Keenum and his top backup.
Central Florida ranks ninth nationally in total defense giving up 279 yards per game. The Knights are 11th in scoring defense yielding only 16.5 points per game.
Houston rarely has been asked to step up against a strong defense. Only once in the three years of the Kevin Sumlin era have the Cougars faced an opponent that finished in the top 20 in total defense and scoring defense. That foe was Air Force. The Falcons beat the Cougars, 47-20, in the Armed Forces Bowl last season.
The Cougars, in fact, have a sad history when facing upper echelon defense. They are 0-13 against teams that finished in the top 20 in total defense and scoring defense losing those games by a combined score of 506-172.
The Knights are one of the top road pointspread teams covering 10 of their last 11 away contests.
3♦ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Derek Mancini
Central Florida (-2) at HOUSTON
Good spot for the Golden Knights, as they head West to Houston to battle the Cougars. Let me state the obvious here, this one comes down to defense, and there's no question we give the edge to Central Florida, who's unit surrenders 16.5 ppg on just 279 total yards this season. Just to compare, the Cougars are allowing 28 ppg on 391 total yards this season, and truth be told, they're even worse at home (30 ppg on 413 total yards).
These two teams approach offense in two very different way, as the Knights attack from the ground with stud RB Ronnie Weaver, and dual threat signal caller Jeff Godfrey. Houston on the other hand, loves to attack from the air, but since losing star Case Keenum, the offense hasn't been as effective. Yes, I know they're averaging 41 ppg on nearly 300 yards passing, but they're being led by a freshman (Piland), who not only completes just 58% of his passes, but also will be facing one of the toughest and most aggressive (19 sacks)defenses he's seen all season.
When it comes down to it, Central Florida's ability to run the football, and Houston's inability to stop the run (allowing 194 rushing yards/game) spell doom for this Cougars sqaud tonight. I know there's plenty of people touting the revenge angle for Houston after last season's 37-32 loss, but without Keenum, they're vulnerable. I don't care if Piland looked great against the likes of Rice and Memphis (8 of his 11 TDs came in those games), because he's going to get a taste of some real defense tonight, and that's the difference in this one. Central Florida over Houston Friday.
2♦ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Joel Tyson
New Jersey (+16) at ORLANDO
Doesn't this price seem a little large to you?
It does to me, as New Jersey has come out this season and has been able to split their first 4 games of the new season, and they came very close to edging Charlotte their last time on court. Certainly a far cry from how the Nets started last season.
This will be the Nets first road game of the season, so you know they will want to aquit themselves well this evening in Orlando.
Series numbers do show the Nets having covered in 3 of the last 5 meetings, and the Magic do have the fact they are on a 1-8 spread slide their last 9 Friday night games to contend with.
No doubt Orlando is the better of the 2 units on the floor tonight, but I gotta tell you this price is just crazy.
Have to back the underdog Nets to find some way to stay inside of this "no respect" impost.
Take the points.
1♦ NEW JERSEY
Chuck O'Brien
New Jersey at ORLANDO (-16)
I’ve hit my last three in a row, all in the NBA, and I’m 6-2 with NBA free plays on the season. Let’s try to make it four in a row on the hardwood Friday and take the Magic as a hefty home chalk against New Jersey.
If we’ve learned one thing through the first 10 days of the NBA season, it’s this: Don’t stand in Orlando’s way when it is playing a crappy opponent at home, because the Magic are completely ruthless in such situations. After obliterating John Wall and the Wizards 112-83 as a 13½-point chalk in their season opener on Oct. 28, the Magic went to Miami for a much-anticipated showdown with the new-look Heat and got humbled big time in a 96-70 loss. But after Tuesday’s game at the Knicks was postponed, Orlando returned home Wednesday and just annihilated the Timberwolves 128-86, easily covering an 18-point spread!
So let’s do the math: In two home games against Washington and Minnesota – two of the five worst teams in the NBA – the Magic have scored 240 points and allowed 169. They’ve shot 52.7 percent from the field, including 41.8 percent from downtown; their opponents have shot 35.2 percent and 28.6 percent. And Orlando yanked down 109 rebounds to their opponents’ 65 in those two contests.
Now here come the Nets, who are undoubtedly improved this season – then again, how could they not be? After starting 0-18 last year – its first victory came on Dec. 2! – New Jersey jumped out to a 2-0 start last week. But those wins came against the Pistons and Kings. On Sunday, the Heat went to New Jersey and rolled to a 23-point road win as a nine-point favorite, and the Nets followed that with Wednesday’s 85-83 loss to Charlotte.
The common thread in those four games: They were all played in New Jersey. Now the Nets, who went 4-37 as a visitor last year, hit the road for the first time and play one of league’s best (and clearly most motivated) teams. In their one trip to Amway Arena last season, the Nets fell 88-72 as a 15½-point underdog exactly 51 weeks ago, one of three double-digit losses to Orlando. In fact, the favorite has covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings, with New Jersey going 2-5 ATS in its last seven visits to the Magic.
The Nets failed to cover in each of their final six road games last year, and with Sunday’s loss to the Heat and Wednesday’s loss to the Bobcats, they’re 0-7 ATS in their last seven against the Southeast Division. If that’s not enough to love the Magic, Orlando is on pointspread runs of 35-17-1 overall, 10-3-1 at home, 18-8 against the Atlantic Division and 23-9 within the Eastern Conference.
Karl Garrett
Cleveland at PHILADELPHIA (-5')
With LeBron James now plying his trade in Miami, chances look pretty solid for the 76ers to end a 3 game series slide.
Cleveland has won 3 straight, and 8 of the last 9 meetings against Philadlephia, but as we all know this is a vastly different Cavaliers team this year, and they are going to take their lumps that is for sure.
The Cavs only other road game to date was a season opening loss by double-digits at Toronto, as they lost to the Raptors by 20 points on October 29th.
Philadelphia notched their first win of the Doug Collins era on Wednesday night, hammering Indiana 101-75.
Excellent chance for the Sixers to pick up another win before embarking on an extended road swing.
G-Man laying the points with the 76ers tonight.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Scott Delaney
Washington (+6') at N.Y. KNICKS
The Knicks have won five straight at home against Washington, and they return to Madison Square Garden for the first time since falling debris forced the postponement of their last home game.
Now, even though the Knicks have averaged 115.2 points and shot 51.2 percent during their five-game home winning streak against the Wizards, not to mention the fact they've won 12 of the last 14 meetings with Washington at MSG, I am going to take the points with the Wizards, as I believe this one could go down to the last one holding the ball.
New York was involved in a back-and-forth affair last night, and came out of Chicago with a wild 120-112 victory. And after a flight home overnight, I'm thinking the Knicks could be hungover.
And that won't bode well against a Wizards team that enters this contest with plentry of its own momentum following a 116-115 overtime victory over Philadelphia on Tuesday.
No. 1 overall pick John Wall has scored 57 points and dished out 22 assists in his last two games, and will be making his MSG-debut, which is always a big thing for a rookie.
History may be against the Wizards, but this is a different team. I'll take the points.
2♦ WASHINGTON
SPORTS WAGERS
Charlotte –1 over DETROIT
We alerted you to the Pistons issues back when they were 0-2. At 0-5, those problems have gotten worse. Even the most casual basketball follower will tell you that a team absolutely needs point guard before anything to compete night in and night out and every NBA general manager, save for Joe Dumars, would wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment. Since trading Chauncey Billups, Detroit has simply not had a legitimate point guard on its roster but hasn’t a done a thing about it and the results have been awful. The Pistons are second to last in the East in assists per game, third to last in field goal percentage at a gruesome 42.8%, and tenth in points per game at 92.8. It’s a train wreck offensively and it’s compounded by the fact that their talent level is simply worse than Charlotte’s. The Bobcats got their first win of the year on Wednesday against the Nets and while their offensive numbers are just as bad as the Pistons, Larry Brown coached teams can always be counted on to swarm opponents defensively. Charlotte finished first in the NBA in defense last season and should be expected to do the same with their roster basically unchanged. Those betting the Pistons will undoubtedly be using the rational that they’re “due” for a win. Ask those who backed the Nets 18 times last year before they got their first victory how that strategy works out. The simple fact is that the Bobcats are the better team with better coaching who absolutely expect to win this game. The Pistons are a team in disarray with no point guard and no go-to scorers. Play: Charlotte -1 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Utah –2 over GOLDEN STATE
We’ve been touting the Jazz since our win totals came out and after a slow start it’s safe to say they’ve turned it around. Since losing to Denver and Phoenix the Jazz have trounced Oklahoma City on the road and Toronto on Wednesday, results that are extremely encouraging considering Utah underwent major changes in the off-season. Jerry Sloan still directs the most physical brand of basketball in the NBA and it’s why his teams have simply dominated the Warriors over the past three seasons. Utah is 7-1 against Golden State since 2008-09 and those results aren’t a fluke. Golden State is fun team to watch but when you’re starting lineup features some of the worst defenders in the NBA in David Lee, Monta Ellis, and Andris Biedrins it becomes impossible to win games on a consistent basis. The Warriors haven’t preached defense in years and have the record to prove it, winning only 55 games over the last two seasons – a record that translates into a .335 winning percentage. New Head Coach Keith Smart is a Don Nelson disciple and won’t change the Warriors style of basketball, especially when that style has led to a surprising 3-1 start. This start actually plays to our advantage tonight because this line would usually be in the five to six point range when accounting for the disparity in talent and aforementioned Jazz dominance. We’ll go ahead and recommend a bet on the Jazz with the expectation that they expose this Warrior team that hasn’t beat a playoff squad yet. Those betting the Warriors are falling into a classic early season trap. Take the team with a track record of dominance and big coaching advantage over the overmatched Warriors. Play Utah -2 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
OC Dooley
Timberwolves +7.5
The line of this contest has been inflated for several reasons including the fact that Atlanta (5-0) is the only remaining undefeated team from the Eastern Conference. Despite that undefeated mark the Hawks have “only” defeated opponents that are a combined 5-17 out of the gate, so this team that virtually quit on a now “ex” head coach during last year’s playoffs still has much to prove. I do admit that Minnesota is off to a horrible start (1-4) but they have actually faced some stiff competition. In what turned out to be an awful mistake, ex-Miami Heat rookie draft pick and new Minnesota acquisition Michael Beasley claimed that his team was actually better than the Heat. Not only did the Timberwolves get clobbered by a 42-point count on Wednesday at Orlando, they also were smoked by a 32 point margin the prior in Miami. As previously mentioned tonight’s line has been adjusted to account for Minnesota’s recent failures, but it is worth considering the highest spread that Atlanta has been asked to cover on the ROAD so far this season has been only 3 points. I have found out that the visiting Hawks are dealing with INJURIES coming into this contest as they will be WITHOUT starting forward Marvin Williams and reserve swingman Maurice Evans. In addition valuable Hawks “sixth man” off the bench Jamal Crawford (toe) is questionable. While on the injury front I have found out that Michael Beasley (hip) actually WILL be in tonight’s Minnesota starting lineup. The bottom line is that we are about to find out whether undefeated Atlanta can cover a big number on the highway and I for one am betting against it