Stephen Nover
Milwaukee at MINNESOTA -2'
The Bucks have a sad history in Minnesota. Milwaukee has dropped nine of its last 10 at the Target Center. The Bucks are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games as an underdog.
This is Milwaukee's fourth game and coach Scott Skiles still hasn't settled on a lineup going with a different starting five in each game. Skiles has limited offense which ever way he turns with Michael Redd out with a knee injury and Andrew Bogut not in rhythm and struggling to find his game after being out last year with a back injury.
The statistics bear out the Bucks' problems. Milwaukee is making just 40.2 percent of its shots from the floor, second-worst in the NBA. The Bucks rank second from the bottom in scoring at 87.7 points per game and are last in free throw percentage at 64.5 percent.
The Bucks don't get to the line either. Their opponents have made more free throws than the Bucks have attempted from the foul line.
The Timberwolves gave the undefeated Celtics all they could handle during their last game, a 92-90 loss on Wednesday. It was Al Jefferson's best game of the season. Jefferson has been getting better with each game as he returns from last year's knee surgery.
The Timberwolves might have found a hidden game in that game with forward Oleksiy Pecherov scoring 24 points and pulling down eight rebounds.
Minnesota will have an added edge and motivation with point guard Ramon Sessions. He played for the Bucks last year and was miffed the Bucks let him go in free agency.
2♦ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Bobby Maxwell
San Antonio at PORTLAND -3
I delivered an absolutely easy FREE winner in this spot on Thursday with Miami, Ohio hanging close with Temple on the college gridiron and I'll deliver another comp winner tonight as I go with the Blazers at home to take care of the Spurs.
Obviously the Spurs are going to be a bet-against team on the road this season as they have looked terrible in their first two roadies. They were blasted Thursday in Utah and now are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Portland has lost three of its last four, but this young team has got some serious talent in the lineup with Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, newly acquired Andre Miller and even center Greg Oden. This team has all the pieces of the puzzle to give the Spurs fits and getting them on the second night of a back-to-back is the perfect opportunity for Portland to get healthy tonight.
The home team won three of four between these two last year and the Blazers won and covered in three of the four. At home in March they blew out the Spurs 102-84 as a four-point favorite and have cashed in five of the last seven series clashes.
Portland is on ATS runs of 15-7 as a favorite, 15-7 against Western Conference teams, 6-0 on Friday and 8-3 after getting two days off. Meanwhile Portland is just 1-5 on the road, 2-6 as an underdog and 2-6 against Northwest Division teams.
The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings with San Antonio in Portland. Playing the younger, fresher legs. Go with Portland.
3♦ PORTLAND
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the OKC Thunder to keep things close with Houston all night and put themselves in a position to win SU. I don't know about you, but I believe in this Oklahoma City team. Apparently Vegas does too, because no matter how good Houston has looked so far this year, they're only giving 6 points. Are you kidding me? 6 points to the Thunder... one of the worst teams in all of basketball last season? Vegas believes, and you should too. This Thunder squad has no real glaring weaknesses except for a lack of depth down low. They've always had scoring, but now they appear to have bought into Scott Brooks' defensive system and seem to be playing much better on that end of the floor. Did you happen to catch the Lakers/Thunder game the other night? OKC had every opportunity to win that game because they did a solid job on the defensive end of the floor. Houston clearly isn't as good as their record might indicate and eventually it's going to catch up to them. No Yao, no McGrady, no Artest. All good things must come to an end, and the upstart Thunder will prove it tonight. Play OKC minus the number.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Steve Merril
Phoenix Suns vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Under 206.5
Boston’s defense is absolutely shutting down their opposition this year. They’ve held all six of their opponents to 90 points or less this year. They are holding their opponents to a solid 40.7% from the floor and 24.7% from three-point land. Boston is allowing an NBA best 81.5 points per game. But the Celtics are not happy with their effort on Wednesday night in Minnesota. They allowed the Timberwolves to shoot 52% from the floor; the first team to shoot better than 42% against the Celtics. Minnesota also had the highest-scoring quarter (27 points) against the Celtics. “The first half, we couldn’t have been any worse,’’ said Celtics coach Doc Rivers. “We didn’t have a lot of energy. Give them credit, they attacked us and I didn’t think we were very good.’’ So look for the Celtics’ defense to play much better tonight against the fast-paced Suns. Boston has held the Suns to only 97 and 87 points their last two trips here. Phoenix also figures to be a bit fatigued as this is their third straight road game and their third game overall in the past four nights.
John Ryan
New Jersey Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -12.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the 76ers as they face the Nets set to start at 7:00 EST. Can any team that is 500 be given as much respect as the 76ers are for this game? Certainly, if the opponent is the New Jersey Nets. AiS shows a 70% probability that Philadelphia will win this game by 14 or more points. Nets are off to an 0-5 start and with a loss tonight will have posted the worst start in franchise history. Injuries to All-Star point guard Devin Harris, who has missed the last three games with a strained groin + starting forward Yi Jianlian sitting out Wednesday's 122-94 loss to Denver with a right MCL injury, have made it very difficult for NJ to be competitive. Philly offense is developing into a high powered edition and based on the matchups, the 76ers will literally run away from the Nets. The 7ers are also getting to the foul line a lot and this works against the Nets as well noting they are just 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) versus good foul drawing teams attempting >=27 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. The best shooting percentage for the Nets has been 46% and that was at Washington. They have had 3 games of 38% shooting or less. 76ers have had 2 games of 4 played hitting over 50%. They are coming off a 36% shooting night against Boston, and rare do solid offenses have back to back poor shooting nights against any opponent. Take the 76ers.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Play: Carolina Hurricanes
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Carolina as they host Toronto set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 79-23 for 78% winners and has made 41.8 units since 1996. Play against a dog against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive losses. AiS shows an 88% probability that Toronto will score 2 or fewer goals. In past games where Toronto has scored 2 or fewer goals they are just 4-75 losing 76.7 units over the past 3 seasons and 84-377 losing 395.3 units since 1996. Plus, this season they are 0-8 losing 9.1 units. In past games when Carolina allowed 2 or fewer goals they are 71-10 making 67.8 units over the past 3 seasons and 332-72 making 307.2 units since 1996. Take Carolina.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets pk
The Nuggets are the better team in this matchup, and while this game figures to be close, I don't see their winning streak coming to an end tonight. The Nuggets are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games overall and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Plus, they are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings with Miami. Denver has won eight straight against the Heat overall and five in a row at Miami. Denver just has too many weapons and we'll take the Nuggets for 1 Unit here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Orlando Magic -13
The books have managed to set a line that has put the public on the Pistons and that's right where they want it. The Magic have won by 14 and 22 in their 2 home games this season and I expect another rout tonight against a Detroit team that has lost by double digits in its last 2 road games to Milwaukee and Toronto - teams not exactly in the category of the Magic. While the Magic are without Rashard Lewis and could be without Vince Carter as well, the Pistons are expected to be without Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince - much bigger blows considering all the fire power Orlando has. Plus, Detroit handed the Magic its only loss of the season a few nights back so the defending Eastern Conference champs will be out for blood here. Lay the points.