SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ORLEANS -105 over L.A. Lakers
Well, we had it all wrong last night. Instead of Dwight Howard wanting to stick it to the Lakers badly, it was the Lakers that wanted to stick it to Dwight Howard more. Consider that deed done in this year’s biggest upset so far. The Lakers went into Houston as a 13-point pooch and left with an extremely satisfying victory. L.A. now has impressive victories over the Clippers and Rockets without Kobe Bryant. That’s pretty sweet but we can spot a curious number when we see one and that has to apply here. That 9 points hanging over the Lakers head here sure looks appetizing and many folks are going to bite. Under normal circumstances, we’d scoop up those points also, as New Orleans is rarely favored in this range and when they were in their last home game against Phoenix, they lost outright.
Again, this line is an attempt by the oddsmakers to entice you to bet on the wrong side. After all, how can the Lakers be getting +9 in New Orleans? One of the criteria used by sharp bettors is the ability to recognize a curious number. The linesmakers are extremely tight in every number they put up in the NBA, in big college games and in the NFL. They are gambling that the Lakers got their satisfaction last night and will be out of energy and heart for this one. In a similar situation at the start of the season, the Lakers defeated the Clip Joint by 12 on opening night only to get whacked by 31 in Golden State the very next night. This one has that same odor and if you were leaning Lakers here, we urge you to be cautious. The line says so.
WASHINGTON +131 over Brooklyn
As long as the Nets continue to be overvalued, we’ll continue to wager against them. Brooklyn is 0-2 on the road with a 21-point loss in Orlando and a four-point loss in Cleveland. In four games overall, the Nets have one notable win and it came in their home opener against Miami by a point. Their only other win occurred against the winless Jazz. Brooklyn is not playing aggressive basketball. They take way too many jump shots and that has led to several minutes of scoring droughts during games. The Nets host the Pacers tomorrow night at the Barclays Center, thus, this is another one of those look-ahead games that the Nets are likely to struggle in the entire year.
The Wizards got a much need win in Philadelphia on Tuesday after a 0-3 start. Three of the Wizards’ first four games have been on the road and now they play their second home game of the year. The Wizards were and still are expected to make the playoffs in the East, but this bumpy start has many doubting their ability and heart. However, Washington’s first win takes some weight off their shoulders. With an outstanding backcourt and that first victory out the way, there is simply too much talent for this team not to consistently nab victories at home. It starts here.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +163 over TORONTO
OT Included. The Devils have gone 4-4 since opening the season with seven straight losses. They’re coming off a 3-0 win over the Flyers last night and they also had two impressive wins last week against the Bruins and Bolts. The Devils will play back-to-backs here but they were off since Sunday prior to last night and figure to have lots left in the tank for this one. Having lost five straight to the Maple Leafs also gives the Devils plenty of motivation.
To win consistently in this league you must have three things; strong defense, strong goaltending and strength up the middle. One out of three isn’t going to cut it for long and that’s precisely what the Maple Leafs employ right now. Toronto is missing two important centers and has opted to shift James Van Riemsdyk into the top spot. Toronto’s defense is the league’s weakest unit. Somehow, someway, the Leafs have managed to win twice as many games as they’ve lost mainly due to the outstanding goaltending of both James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier. Of course either one of them could have another strong game here against this offensively challenged visitor but there are more reasons to like the Devils as well. Coming off a 6-day layoff and returning home from a trip through the Canadian West Coast is a double-whammy against the Leafs, making this situation an extremely unfavorable one. The Leafs could be really flat tonight and even if they are not, the tag here on the Devils makes them a strong value play.
Dave Mathews
Toronto Raptors vs Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -8.5
Indiana might be the best team in the NBA right now. They have one of the best players in Paul George, who is averaging 26 points per game. Toronto won't be able to handle Roy Hibbert and David West's physical play up front. Hibbert won the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year award last year for a reason. Toronto just lost at Charlotte by two as a road favorite. They aren't getting much from Rudy Gay, who is shooting just 33.7 percent from the field.
Dave Cokin
SE Missouri State at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis
Southeast Missouri State has a real chance to make some noise in the OVC this season. But the Redhawks are being forced to open the campaign minus two vital cogs, and that likely means a blowout loss tonight at Saint Louis.
Tyler Stone and Nino Johnson won’t be in action for the first two SEMO games thanks to suspensions, and whatever shot this team had to compete with the powerful Billikens likely has vanished in the process. Stone and Johnson are the best players on the team and their absence means a serious lack of size and depth tonight.
Saint Louis lost a couple of key components from last year’s #4 NCAA Tournament seed, but I think they’ve got a chance to be an even better team this time around. Dwayne Evans is a legit Player of the Year candidate in the A-10, and the guard tandem of Jordair Jett and Mike McCall Jr. is top notch. There’s ample depth on hand as well for what is going to be a very good basketball team.
The number for this game is high, but with good reason. The only way I can see the visitors being even remotely competitive is if they knock down a load of threes. Second chance opportunities should be all but non-existent and I don’t expect the interior game, minus the two stars, to be effective at either end of the court.
The number is justifiably high tonight, but unless the Billikens play without focus, this looms as a big time blowout. I’ll lay the spot with Saint Louis to romp.
Andrew Lange
Florida International vs. Eastern Kentucky
Recommendation: Eastern Kentucky -5
Despite losing head coach Richard Pitino and three starters it looks as if Florida International has enough talent to compete in C-USA. But as with a lot of teams that suffer offseason turnover (and in FIU's case postseason ineligibility), it is going to take some time. They draw a tough first game matchup against a very seasoned and difficult to prepare for Eastern Kentucky squad. Head coach Jeff Neubauer has a reputation of doing less with more but decided last season that he was going to bring in some speed and athleticism. He did just that an EKU won 25 games including 12-4 in OVC play. The Colonels return four starters from that group – the lone loss was all-league point guard Mike DiNunno but Neubauer is reportedly going to use senior Glen Cosey (15.2 ppg) and a JC recruit as the team's primary ball handlers. Overall, EKU is a veteran club that is extremely efficient (55% 2s, 35% 3s, 78% FTs) and with the influx of athletes runs a very aggressive 1-3-1 zone (6th nationally in TO rate last year). In the grand scheme of things, Eastern probably isn't going to have much value this year with expectations rather high but this is a favorable matchup and a cheap enough price to offer our support.
Wunderdog
Air Force vs. Army
Pick: Army -3
It is fitting that the Army will open their 2013-14 season vs. the Air Force. Army had a great season a year ago, winning 16 games, and even won a game in the Patriot Conference Tournament before bowing to a strong Bucknell team by just 8 points. Air Force put together a streaky, but good season a year ago, but may be challenged to duplicate it as they have lost some key players. Army hasn't had a team as good as this one could turn out to be in awhile, and expectations are promising. This should get them off to a good start as they are a better team than Air Force, and should have no problem taking down the small number here. Play on Army.
PORT PORT SPORTS
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE @ OKLAHOMA SOONERS UNDER 132.5
This Alabama team should be a force to be reckoned with in the SEC this season, as despite being picked to finish 6th in the SEC this season, this is an Alabama team that returns 7 players from last season, with 5 of their top 7 scorers returning, as well as 3 starters. Let's not forget, this is primarily the same Tide team that made a nice little run in the NIT beating Northeastern and Stanford before finally falling by a point against a tough Maryland squad, 58-57, ending their season. They will be expecting a lot more from their superstar guard, Relaford, and he has shown that he should be capable of carrying the burden for this team. Not really all that sure what to expect from this Oklahoma team, as they are using almost an entirely new starting rotation. The Sooners of last year had a rough go of it when playing away from home, as they were 1-6 ML in their L7 games when not played on their own campus, and 2-8 ML in their L10 away from home. They were 3-3 ML and ATS when playing on a neutral court, but they finished the season 0-2 ML and ATS in the tournaments. This Bama squad on the other hand was a pretty good bet down the stretch for their backers, as they cashed in on the spread in 4 of their L5 games played, while posting a 7-2 ATS record in their L9 to close out 2012-13. They were a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing on a neutral court themselves, while also posting a 3-1 ML record in those games. The Tide were also 8-2 ATS in their L10 away from home. As for the Under, I just anticipate this one to be a tight battle throughout and historically low-scoring games are the way these two teams play each other. Their 4 career meetings have resulted in a perfect 3-0 record for the Under and Alabama finished off the season last year with 5 straight Under wins and a 7-2 mark for the Under in their L9. These two teams have also played to the Under for the most part on neutral courts, as Oklahoma is 4-1 for the Under in the L5 at a neutral site, while the Tide are a perfect 5-0 for the Under in their L5 in a neutral building. Go with the UNDER to hit in this season-opener.
BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (+3)
This one may end up being an outright win by the Eagles from BC when all is said and done, but we'll take the points instead and keep it on the spread for this one. These two schools have a long history of matching up and that has meant the win for Boston College in recent years. They have picked up the outright win and cover in 4 of the L5 meetings between the two schools since the 2008-09 school year and the Eagles are a dominating 7-3 ML and ATS in the L10 meetings overall. The Eagles have also posted a 5-3 ML and 6-2 ATS record in the L8 meetings held on the Providence campus. To take it even further, Providence has only had 2 of their 3 wins on their home campus in this series come by more than today's spread. Four of the L5 meetings between the two schools have had a final deciding margin of 5 points or less, with 2 of the L3 match-ups ending as 2-point wins for Boston College, with both on their home court. This Eagles squad returns all 5 starters from the end of last season, which should also be a good thing, as this Eagles squad rolled off 4 wins in their final 5 games to close out the year. Providence has seen a little trouble come their way this offseason, and the chemistry of the team most likely has been tested. They will be without 2 freshman due to suspension, and there have been a few other off the court incidences involving members of the team recently. How will they respond today will be seen fairly early. The road team is also 9-4 ATS in the L13 match-ups between the schools. Run with the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES to come through as the road underdog in today's battle.
MARYLAND TERRAPINS (+6)
This one should be an entertaining game all the way throughout as both of these schools enter the 2013-14 season with much-improved squads looking to bring some prominance back to their campus. Maryland definitely provides an intriguing make-up this season and this could be a very big year once again for one of the nation's storied programs. They were a cover machine to close out the season last year, as they finished off the year picking up the money for their backers in 7 of their final 8 games and 8-2 ATS in their L10 overall. They played well outside of Maryland also, as although they were 3-3 ML, they were a much more profitable 5-1 ATS in their L6 games not played on their own court. They managed those exact same records when playing on a neutral court as well, with a season-opening cover against Kentucky in a neutral building, as a 10.5-point dog. They also managed to show a profit when they were playing as the underdog, with an 8-5 ATS record when getting the points overall for the season, but they were a much more prosperous 6-2 ATS in their L8 as the dog to close out the year. The Huskies return the usual quality team, still with some leftovers on the squad from the Kemba Walker championship days. They too were a profitable bunch down the stretch last season, as despite losing 3 of their L4 games, they picked up the cash and covered the spread in 5 of their L6. They were 7-2 ATS in their L9 games and 12-5 ATS in their L17 games in 2012-13. Still this one should be closer than this spread would indicate. Maryland in 2-0 ML and 1-1 ATS in the 2 meetings between the two schools since the 2000's began. Go with the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for the cover in this afternoon match-up.
Larry Ness
USC at Utah St.
Play: Utah St.
USC fired head coach Kevin O'Neill after a 7-10 start last season. The Trojans finished the year 14-18 overall with a respectable 9-9 mark in the Pac-12 Conference under interim coach Bob Cantu but in the offseason, they made a splash by hiring Andy Enfield. Enfield is a self-made millionaire, has a model for a wife and if that’s NOT enough, led Florida Gulf Coast to an improbable Sweet 16 run in the NCAA Tournament last March. USC’s basketball program begins a new era on Friday night, as the Trojans open the 2013-14 season at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan against the Utah State Aggies.
Utah State was 21-10 in 2012-13 (11-7 in the WAC) but for the first time since 1997, it did not partake in a postseason tournament. The Aggies, who have won 20 or more games in 14 consecutive seasons under coach Stew Morrill, are now a member of the MWC, which sent five teams to the NCAA Tournament last season. Enfield is expected to incorporate the fast-pace style that wowed with FCGU last season, which should inject some life into a USC team which averaged a modest 65.7 PPG a season ago. However, expecting "Dunk City" is probably setting expectations a bit too high.
Utah State only averaged 66.4 PPG last season, surely suffering down the stretch when Preston Medlin was lost for the remainder of the season following a wrist injury in January. However, the former WAC player of the year back at full strength, after averaging 16.3 PPG in just 16 games, while making almost 40 percent of his three-point attempts. The 6-10 Jarred Shaw (14.2-8.4) gained experience as the team's go-to scorer with Medlin sidelined and gives USU a great inside-outside presence. Guards spencer Butterfield (12.2-6.6) and Marcel Davis (7.1 PPG) also return to an experienced starting lineup.
USC’s top scorer from last year, Eric Wise (11.9), has moved on, but there's still some talent on the roster. J.T. Terrell averaged 11.7 PPG while Byron Wesley (10.2) impressed as a sophomore and should continue to improve. With Jio Fontan (9.3-5.3 APG) gone, the PG duties will be handed over to Pe'Shon Howard, who was cleared to play this season after transferring from Maryland. Omar Oraby (7-foot-2, 270 pounds) and D.J. Haley (7-0, 250) give the Trojans an imposing interior presence.
Maybe Enfield will work his ‘magic’ here as well but NOT tonight in beautiful downtown Logan. Lay the points.
Jack Jones
Connecticut +28
At 0-7 on the season, the betting public wants nothing to do with Connecticut. That’s why the oddsmakers are forced to give a few extra points to the Huskies almost every time they play from here on out. They have to try and get even action on both sides, and the only way to do that is to inflate the lines in their games. That is evident by the fact that they are a 28-point home dog here, while they were only a 24-point road dog at UCF last time out, which handed Louisville its only loss of the season.
Connecticut has shown some signs of being able to compete with good teams. It only lost 21-32 at home to Maryland on September 14, and 21-24 at home to Michigan as an 18.5-point dog on September 21. The Huskies certainly did not play their best in losses at Cincinnati (16-41) and at UCF (17-62) in their last two games, but playing two top-caliber teams like that will only have them more battle-tested in preparation for Louisville.
The Huskies were one of only two teams to beat Louisville last season. They went on the road as a 10-point underdog and pulled off the upset by a final of 23-20 in overtime. While they have little to play for the rest of the way, they know that a win over Louisville this year would help put a bright spot on an otherwise sour season to this point. They could catch the Cardinals in a letdown spot considering they have a game against Houston on deck next week. The Cougars lead the American Athletic standings with a 4-0 record in the conference.
Connecticut is 20-7 against the spread in its last 27 home games following a road loss. The Huskies are 7-0 against the number off two consecutive road losses since 1992. Connecticut is 14-3 against the spread in its last 17 home games following a road loss to a conference rival. The Cardinals are 2-7 against the number in their last nine games following an ATS win. The Huskies are 10-1-1 against the spread in their last 12 November games. Bet Connecticut Friday.
Dave Price
Detroit Pistons +4
The Pistons are showing value catching a couple field goals at home. At 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall, they have been an outstanding investment dating back to the end of last season. The same can't be said about the Thunder, who are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Detroit has only one loss by more than three points this season and is 2-0 SU and ATS at home. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. OKC is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road with the win coming by only three points against a Utah team that's 0-5. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Pistons have won or lost by fewer than four points in seven of their last eight home games against the Thunder. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.
Bruce Marshall
Pacific vs. Nevada
Pick: Nevada
Pressure is on Nevada HC David Carter, now working for new AD (Doug Knuth) and under must-win edict this season. MW sources not surprised that Carter ran off many of his underperforming bigs after last season, and Pack’s fate rests upon some touted juco bigs and explosiveness of sr. G Deonte Burton (16.3 ppg), who bypassed NBA Draft and now won’t have to worry about sharing shots with hot-and-cold graduated backcourt mate Malik Story. Longtime HC Bob Thomason has retired at UOP, which also moves into former WCC home this season.
Joe Gavazzi
Dallas at Minnesota
Play: Dallas
The Wolves enter at 3-2 SU ATS and will be eager to make amends for their 13 point home loss to Golden Wednesday night. A now healthy group of T-Wolves will far exceed their 31 wins of last season. PG Rubio is surrounded by scoring forces Kev. Martin and Love. But they are hosting the Mavs, who are 11-2 SU at this site, on the wrong night. Dallas is off a 14 point loss of their own at OKC Wednesday. The Mavs are among the most resilient teams in the league at 30-13 ATS L1+Y. Always eager to back HC Carlisle in his preferred role, where he is 80-55 ATS as road dog as coach of the Mavs, a team who was 27-14 ATS on the road last year.
Rocketman
Wofford @ Georgia
Play: Wofford +7.5
The Wofford Terriers travel to Georgia to take on the Bulldogs on Friday night. Neither team was great last season as Wofford finished with a 13-19 SU overall record while Georgia finished with a 15-17 SU overall record on the season. Wofford allowed only 59.1 points per game overall last year and 60.9 points per game on the road last season. Georgia was very similar in that department so I'm looking for a low scoring game here tonight which I like taking the underdog in. Wofford is 7-3 ATS last 10 games against the Southeastern Conference. My five sets of power ratings has Wofford winning outright by .25 points, .50 points, Georgia winning by only 3.26 points, 3.26 points and 2.38 points. We'll recommend a small play on Wofford tonight!
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Friday night is on Portland State plus the points in the Thomas and Mack Center, against the UNLV Runnin' Rebels.
While the excitement is in the air on the campus of UNLV, with the football team a win away from being bowl eligible, and the basketball team tipping off tonight, I think there is legitimate cause for concern with the Runnin' Rebels right now.
Everyone's answer last week, after the Rebels lost to 71-70 to Dixie State on Nov. 1 in their first exhibition game was the same: "Eh, it's just an exhibition game..."
Then the Rebels struggled to defeat Adams State, 72-67, this past Tuesday.
I'm sorrry, but while Bryce Dejean-Jones is nursing an injury, and is out of the lineup, this team is struggling to points on the board. Remember, the Rebels lost Anthony Bennett to the NBA Draft, they graduated Anthony Marshall and they watched Mike Moser and Katin Reinhardt transfer to the Pac 12. UNLV has to find some chemistry, it's that simple.
Portland State lost three starters, all of them double-figure scorers, but it still has forward Aaron Moore, who led the team in scoring, rebounding and blocks last season. Junior point guard Tim Douglas is a transfer in from the U. of Portland, and he'll be a welcome addition.
Fact is, the Vikings will be more pumped to play UNLV, than the Rebels will be to play Portland State. And this is going to be a single-digit game.
1♦ PORTLAND STATE
Craig Davis
Your free play tonight is on the OKC Thunder minus the small number over Detroit.
Some might call this game a trap, but I'm not so sure it is. Mo Cheeks learned a lot from Scott Brooks during his days as bench coach for the OKC Thunder, and while I've heard many say the Pistons are probably the right side tonight because Mo Cheeks knows the ins and outs of the Thunder, I think it works both ways.
Cheeks learned how to run a team from Brooks and the Thunder, so I figure OKC is going to be one step ahead of Cheeks in game-planning for a game like this.
The Thunder proved me dead wrong two nights ago when they thumped the high-scoring Mavericks, proving they can play some defense when need be.
And if this Russell Westbrook isn't the fully 100% healthy Russell Westbrook, I can't imagine how good he's going to be when he's at full strength.
Take the Thunder in a close one to win and cover the small number in Detroit.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY