Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 10

LT Profits

Royals +125 Series

Game 1 of this ALDS between the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles is Friday in Baltimore. Both teams have had great rides and exceeded expectations but sadly one of those rides will end. We feel the Orioles’ lack of a true ace will cost them here as the Royals have the best starting pitcher in this series in James Shields, who will likely match up with Chris Tillman in Game 1. We also prefer the Royals starting depth of Jason Vargas and Yordano Ventura compared to some combination of Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez for Baltimore. The Orioles were at a huge starting pitching disadvantage vs. the Tigers and swept them, but that was because the lousy Detroit bullpen did its thing. Conversely, the Kansas City pen is one of the best in baseball. Look for the Royals to steal a least one game in Baltimore, as they are 23-9 in their last 32 road games.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Stanford / Washington State Over 55: The Cardinal has come into this game with conservative offenses before and yet have score 38 or more in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. Now with the way that Washington State has scored this was and with the way that Connor Halliday is just chucking the ball all over the field you have to expect that Stanford will have to open up the game a little. This is a god spot for them to work on a bit more wide open a game as they will be taking on a horrible Washington defense that is 110th vs the pass and 105th in points scored, giving up 35.2 ppg. The Cougars on offense has been held to less than 28 points just once this year and I know that was at Nevada, but really it was just an off night for Connor and company and I don't see that happening here as Connor is in an incredible Zone right now. Granted he will be facing a tough defense, but the Cardinal did allow Everett Golson to throw for 241 yards last week. GThe Cardinal is not used to high scoring games, but I don't think they can win this game without putting up many points as the Washington State offense is very hard to stop. I can see 60+ points in this one.

Jack Jones

Washington State +17

The Washington State Cougars are much better than their 2-4 record would indicate. All four of their losses have come by 11 points or fewer, including three by a touchdown or less. They lost to Rutgers 38-41, Oregon 31-38 and California 59-60. Those three efforts against very solid teams, especially Oregon, show that the Cougars are capable of playing within anyone in the country. That includes Stanford this week.

I just am not sold on Stanford this season. While it does have one of the best defenses in the country, its offense leaves a lot to be desired. It has managed 20 points or less in three of its five games this season, including 10 to USC and 14 to Notre Dame, which both resulted in losses. Kevin Hogan really holds his team back as he just isn’t a very efficient, accurate quarterback. This Stanford offense is averaging just 371.6 yards per game this season.

Washington State’s offense, on the other hand, is the reason it is capable of competing with a team like Stanford and keeping this game close. The Cougars are putting up 38.0 points and 579.5 yards per game this season. That’s impressive when you consider their opponents are allowing 29.4 points and 474 yards per game. Their defense is giving up 438.2 yards per game, but that’s not that terrible when you consider opposing offenses are averaging 436 yards per game on the season.

Connor Halliday is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is executing Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense at a very high level. Halliday is completing 67.8 percent of his passes for 3,052 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions already this season. He shares the wealth to his receivers as Vince Mayle (51 receptions, 703 yards, 6 TD), River Cracraft (43, 576, 6), Isiah Myers (45, 574, 7), and Dom Williams (24, 496, 6) are all having monster seasons.

Two years ago, Stanford only won 24-17 at home against Washington State as a 25-point favorite. Two years before that in 2010, the Cougars were only beaten 28-38 at Stanford as 37-point underdogs. They have played tough in their last two visits to Stanford Stadium, and I look for them to likely make that three in a row this year. Also, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.

Washington State is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons. Stanford is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games following an upset loss as a favorite. The Cougars are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS loss. Washington State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. The Cardinal are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Marc Lawrence

Fresno St. at UNLV
Prediction: UNLV

Edges - Rebels: 16-6 ATS home with Bobby Hauck; and 5-1 ATS Home off previous SU home loss. Bulldogs: 2-11 ATS road favorites -6 or more points versus foe off SU loss more than 21 points; and 6-14 ATS in 4th away game of season. With Fresno looking dead ahead to a bigger fish in Boise State, we recommend a 1-unit play on UNLV.

Sam Martin

San Diego St. at New Mexico
Prediction: New Mexico

Points are very appealing in this matchup of two rush-heavy offenses, and we'll grab the points with New Mexico in the home underdog role, looking for them to have a decent shot at an outright win. Home underdogs are usually appealing anyway in these weeknight games featuring teams that don't usually have many chances to show themselves off to a national audience.

New Mexico was a big 14.5-point road underdog at San Diego State last year, and while they came up short on the scoreboard by five points they played very well in an easy ATS cover. Look for a similar type of game this time around with both teams running the ball in excess of 40 times each. Have to point out San Diego State's road record this season - going 0-3 straight up while committing 8 turnovers in those three games (just one turnover committed in two home games combined). One mistake could be the difference and we'll back the home team to pull the upset!

Alex Smith Sports

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes
Pick: New York Islanders

The New York Islanders are looking to make some noise on their last season in Long Island before making their way across the ferry to Brooklyn. Adding D-Men Nick Leddy & Johnny Boychuk to a solid forward corps led by sniper John Tavares and some solid goaltending with Jaroslav Halak, that noisemaking should start tonight in the first of a home-and-home series with the Carolina Hurricanes, who made some much needed changes in the Front Office, but with injuries to key stars Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner and some major questions still in net between the aging Cam Ward and the inexperienced Anton Khudubin, I'm siding with the Islanders in this stand-alone Friday contest.

Jim Feist

Royals at Orioles
Pick: Under

Both teams have fine starting pitching and defense in the field. The under is 5-1 in the Royals last 6 games as a road underdog, as well as 37-17-5 under the total when the Royals are a dog of +110 to +150. At least they have ace James Shields on the hill, and the under is 6-2-1 in Shields' last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Baltimore has a strong starter and a deep, lights out bullpen. They are 7-2-1 under the total as a favorite. The under is 18-7-1 in Chris Tillman's last 26 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. And when these teams meet the under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings, including 6-1 under the total at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

Ray Monohan

Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Kansas City Royals +105

The Orioles have yet to announce their game one starter but for me it doesn’t really matter. James Shields is going for the Royals and I like his ability to shut down the O’s lineup while KC scores enough to win. The even up value is a pretty good indicator of where the advantage are for this game one. I just hope the time off hasn’t let the Royals cool off too much or messed with their head.

Jesse Schule

Washington State vs. Stanford
Play: Over 52½

When the Washington State Cougars take on Stanford at The Farm Friday night, we'll see the nation's leading passer matched up against the Cardinal's top ranked defense. Last week Halliday threw for an FBS record 734 yards, and the Cougars still lost at home to Cal. As good as the Cougars are on offense, they simply can't stop opponents from scoring. That was the case when these teams played in Washington last season as the Cardinal won 55-17.

The score was a lot closer the last time the Cougars traveled to Palo Alto, and I expect Halliday to put a few points on the board here on Friday. The Cougars are just 1-2 during a three game stretch that has seen them score 118 points. They upset the Utes in Utah two weeks ago, proving they have what it takes to compete on the road.

Kevin Hogan had a big game in last year's meeting, throwing for 286 yards and three TDs. He's been limited in practice all week suffering a leg injury, but is expected to start tonight.

Keep an eye on River Cracraft, the Cougars WR caught 11 passes for 172 yards and three TDs on Saturday. It's not like they can put a double team on him, with senior Vince Mayle on the other side, the team leader with 703 yards and six TDs.

Stanford might have the best defense in the country, but their strength is in stopping the run. That's not going to help them against the Cougars, who don't have much of a running game anyway.

The Cardinal are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine versus teams with a losing record, and they've seen the total go over in 10 of their last 14 coming off a loss.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Will Rogers

Kansas City vs. Baltimore
Play: Under 7

Both the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles won their previous series with ease as they swept the Angels and the Tigers respectively. The Royals recipe to success has been their small ball approach, which rarely leads to big innings. I think we'll see a low scoring contest in this ALCS opener.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Orioles will hand the ball to Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA) who's last start was in the 12-3 win against the Tigers in Baltimore on Oct 2. The 26 year old allowed two runs (both homers) on four hits over five innings while fanning six. He gets to pitch at Camden Yards once again tonight, where he went 5-5 with a 2.54 ERA during the regular season. The Royals have not had any luck against Tillman this season, as he tossed a complete game shutout conceding only five hits in the only meeting. Kansas City will counter with James Shields who's last outing was in an 8-3 win against the Angels on Oct 5, where he gave up just two runs (both home runs) on six hits over six innings. He's had more success on the road than at home this year, going 10-2 with a 2.97 ERA away from home.

2. Trends - Six of the last seven meetings in Baltimore have gone under the total, and so have 11 of the last 15 overall as well.

3. X-factor - James Shields has owned a couple of the Orioles big bats. Nelson Cruz is only 4-for-21 lifetime versus the right-hander and Delmon Young is 3-for-14.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Dr Bob

STANFORD (-16½) 31 Washington State 16

Washington State scored 59 points last week with quarterback Connor Halliday setting a NCAA single game record with 734 passing yards (with 6 touchdown passes and zero interceptions). This will be the polar opposite of last week, as Stanford is a tough test for the Cougars’ spread attack. Stanford is perhaps the best tackling team in the nation and they don’t allow many plays over the top of their defense, which combined have led to an incredibly low 8.3 yards per completion for the Cardinal opponents. Washington State’s attack depends a lot of quick passes that lead to yards after the catch but Stanford does not allow many yards after catch. Last season the Cardinal held Halliday to just 4.5 yards per pass play in a 55-17 win up in Pullman and my math model calls for the Cougars to average just 4.8 yards per pass play with just 316 total yards at 4.4 yards per play against the nation’s 2nd best defense (behind Louisville in my ratings). It will still be tough for Stanford to win by a huge margin like they did last season, as the Cardinal offense simply isn’t as good. Stanford has been just 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively this season with quarterback Kevin Hogan in the game, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack. Washington State’s defense isn’t nearly as bad as they looked in giving up 60 points to Cal, as the Cougars’ stop unit is just 0.3 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team). The math projects 423 yards at 6.0 yppl for Stanford in this game and overall the Cardinal are projected to win by 15 points with a total of 46 ½ points. There isn’t enough line value to consider the side but I do favor the Under here since it appears as if last week’s high scoring game by Washington State has influenced the line too much. Washington State has gone under the total in 3 of 6 games, so not every week is a track meet, and Stanford has gone Under in every game this season.

Tony Finn

San Diego St at New Mexico
Play: Under 52

It is not understating when sharing thoughts about the San Diego State offense --- fact is the unit has struggled this season -- and HC Rocky Long has to retool his staff's scheme if he is going to challenge for a spot at the top of the Mountain West Conference standings.

Long might be a perfect 12-0 SU in this series and at New Mexico a stellar 6-1 ATS but at SD State is has dropped all four against the spread facing his previous peers.

The Lobos rank 70th among Division 1 schools offensively averaging 413 yards per game, with 323 of those yards coming via the ground attack leaving the "O" an non-explosive unit that throws for less than 90 yards per contest.

The struggling Aztecs offense is averaging less than 400 total yards per game for the first time in... seemingly forever, an even split between rushing and passing stats.

The Lobos lack of a passing game has left them win-less at home with an 0-3 mark and while their points allowed 41.3 seems porous the real numbers are not as bad as they look.

The lack of offensive explosiveness has left the Aztecs win-less on the road sporting an 0-3 mark in this situation and their points per game of 15.7 speaks volumes to their struggles, especially since the only top tiered opponent this year has been Oregon State, a game where SDSU scored seven points and gave up only 28.

The Under is 5-0 in the Aztecs last 5 games overall; 4-1 in the Aztecs last 5 road games and 17-5 in the Aztecs last 22 when squaring up against a team with a losing record.

The Under is 9-2 in the Lobos last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

LT Profits

San Diego State vs New Mexico
Pick: New Mexico +4

The San Diego State Aztecs look like weak road favorites visiting the New Mexico Lobos Friday. This is a team with a losing 2-3 record ranked 95th in the country in total offense and 96th in scoring at 23.8 points per game. More importantly, the Aztecs will be without starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler, so freshman Nick Bawden again gets the start and he was awful in his first outing at Fresno State last week completing only 9-of-24 passes for a mere 84 yards vs. a bad defense in the 24-13 loss. New Mexico is also 2-3, but the Lobos come off of a nice road upset win at Texas-San Antonio 21-9 and they can certainly move the ball on the ground ranking fifth in the nation with 323.4 rushing yards per game on a whopping 6.2 yards per carry. New Mexico is 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings here at home.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW MEXICO +4 over San Diego State

The Aztecs have two wins, one against the 1-5 UNLV Rebels and one against Big Sky resident, Northern Arizona. SDSU has played three games on the road, where they are 0-3 and they’ll now play back-to-back road games and their fourth road game in the past five weeks. Aztecs QB Quinn Kaehler was injured last week and was replaced by Nick Bawden, who completed 9 passes in 24 attempts for 84 yards. Kaehler remains out this week. The Aztecs offense is weak, ranking 95th in the country and it’s not like they’ve played a tough schedule. The Aztecs barely got by New Mexico last year in San Diego when they won 35-30 and had every bounce go their way. This year the Aztecs are not better while the Lobos have shown some improvement.

Interesting enough, the Lobos are 2-0 on the road and 0-3 at home. They defeated a decent Roadrunners squad in San Antonio last week, holding them to just seven points. Two of UNM’s home losses occurred against #17 Arizona State and current Mountain West leader Fresno State. The Lobos do not have much of a passing game but they do own one of the best running games in the country with 322 yards per game on the ground. They run the triple option almost every play and the opposition is finding it very difficult to defend. Both teams are 2-3 but the market does not like the Lobos at all because they have won just seven games in 25 tries between 2012 and 2013 combined. Thing is, they are in a much better position to win this game than the Aztecs are. The Lobos are at home, they’re healthier and they are not exhausted from having to travel every week. Lobos outright.