SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +115 over BALTIMORE
The Orioles played outstanding baseball the entire season and they are managed by a guy that has been pulling all the right strings throughout. The O’s disposed of the Tigers in three games while belting out 21 runs. However, 13 of those runs and two of the three victories came against the Tigers pathetic bullpen. Still, Baltimore finds ways to win so it really doesn’t matter if they score late or early. The point is they score and they score when they need it most. The O’s will send out Chris Tillman to start the opener and he went five frames in the ALDS against the Tigers and allowed four hits and two runs. Of those four hits, two left the yard and it took Tillman 105 pitches to get through those five innings. That outing was not unlike his regular season in that there were many encouraging nuggets just like there was in Tillman’s rather gaudy across-the-board 2H skills growth. Throw in some occasional bouts of wildness and a few disasters and that’s Chris Tillman, but there are some warning signs. Tillman’s overall groundball/fly-ball split was 41%/39% but over his final seven starts it was 36%/46%. His WHIP of 1.35 over that same span is worse than the major-league average and it’s also worth noting that it’ll be eight days between starts for him here.
James Shields pitched five days ago so he’s on regular rest. We’re not certain that it matters but we are certain that starting pitchers do not like to be taken out of their rhythm. Shields battled twice in the playoffs so far, as he was hit hard in that one-game playoff against the A’s but bounced back with a decent outing against the Angels. So, as impressive as the O’s were in sweeping the Tigers, the Royals were even more impressive in their sweep of the Angels, outscoring them 15-6 and silencing some of the biggest bats in the game. We have our concerns with the Royals in the series, as Ned Yost could get easily out-managed and K.C. has at least two unreliable starters in Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie. However, we give them a very decent shot of winning the series because they are peaking at the right time. The Royals always seem to have men on base and their speed wreaks havoc in the mind of the opposing pitcher. Kansas City ranked 16th in the majors in on-base percentage at .314 and Baltimore was 17th at .311. The Royals were fourth in batting average at .263 and Baltimore was ninth at .256. The Orioles prided themselves on their ability to hit home runs regardless of venue, and Kansas City's speed turned a lot of singles into doubles. The Royals amassed 158 infield hits this season, which was second most in the game. The Royals also were the only team in baseball to whiff fewer than 1,000 times. We’ll play the series on a game to game basis because in such a close series, there is likely going to be value in playing the dog in almost every game and it begins with this one.
Pass NHL & CFL
Jimmy Boyd
Fresno State Bulldogs -9½
There haven’t been many better teams to fade than UNLV so far this season. The only game the Rebels have beat the spread was a 17-point loss at San Diego State as a 18-point underdog. Their only win on the season is a mere 13-12 home victory over FCS foe Northern Colorado. Each of their losses have all come by at least 14-points and I’m not expecting that trend to come to an end.
Fresno State has done a nice job of rebounding from a brutal schedule to start the season, which saw them play their first 3 games against USC, Utah and Nebraska. The Bulldogs were embarrassed in all 3 of those matchups and have since been undervalued against the spread. Fresno State rolled over Southern Utah 56-16 as a 18.5-point favorite, went on the road and defeated New Mexico 35-24 as a 6.5-point favorite and knocked off San Diego State at home 24-13 as a 3.5-point favorite.
Despite playing a relatively easy schedule so far, UNLV has not been able to get anything going offensively. The Rebels come in ranked 96th in the country in total offense (365.7 ypg, 86th) and have struggled with both the running game (136.0 ypg) and passing attack (229.7 ypg, 67th). Fresno State’s defense has held each of their last 3 opponents to 24 points or less, while UNLV has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their last 3.
I just don’t see the Rebels being able to generate enough offense here to keep it close against the Bulldogs. Fresno State is averaging 534.0 ypg over their last 3 contests and will be going up against a UNLV defense that is giving up 545 yards and 38.7 ppg. Opposing offenses have been able to do whatever they please, as the Rebels are 82nd against the pass (252.8 ypg) and 116th against the run (292.5 ypg).
Fresno State is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against poor pass defenses that are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% or more of their passes. There’s also a strong system in play, as road favorites who allowed 14 points or less in their last game against an opponent that’s allowed 31+ in each of their last 2 games are 43-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Bulldogs.
Dave Price
Stanford -16
Washington State comes to Palo Alto at the wrong time. The Cardinal went down at Notre Dame last week and will be ready to take their frustration out all over the Cougars. Last week, Washington State QB Connor Halliday went nuts against Cal, connecting on 49 of 70 passes for 734 yards and six touchdowns. However, Cal is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation, ranking 122nd in scoring defense, 124th in total defense and 128th against the pass. Stanford ranks 1st in scoring defense, 2nd in total defense and 2nd against the pass. Halliday won't get anything easy tonight. In last season's meeting, the Cardinal held Halliday to 184 yards and roughed him up enough that he left the game early with an injury. They also scored a pick-six off of him on their way to a 55-17 victory. The Cardinal are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 conference games, 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games versus losing teams and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. The Cougars are just 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
Steve Janus
New Mexico Lobos +4
I fully expect New Mexico to win this game outright, but I'll gladly take the points with the home dog on a weeknight matchup. San Diego State wasn't a good offensive team to start with, but now that starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler is out they just aren't capable of putting doing a whole lot. Backup Nick Bawden was awful in his first start in place of Kaehler, completing 9 of 24 attempts for a mere 84 yards with 2 interceptions. Look for New Mexico to play inspired at home and to dominate the time of possession with their ground attack. This one may be close early, but the Lobos should be able to wear down the Aztecs defense and pull away for the win in the 2nd half.
System - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points of 2 or more consecutive unders, with a poor first half defense that's allowing 16+ points/game are 71-37 (66%) ATS since 1992.
Ari Atari
Washington State +17
Washington State COVERS the +17 with ease in a closely contested conference matchup. You've got the #1 passing offense in Washington State going up against the #2 pass defense in Stanford. The Cardinal will have the lights and pressure on them while the Cougars continue to do what's working well for them to compete. 17 points is overcompensated. Stanford will win this game but they won't win by 2 TDs and a FG. Take the 17 with a half point buy if your book has pushed off the number. This is one of those Friday night games that you should look closer into.
Vince Akins
Washington State at Stanford
Play: Stanford -16
These teams are complete polar opposites, and whether or not Washington State can be competitive is going to come down to if it is a high-scoring or low scoring game. Considering there were 119 points scored in their last game yet the total here is under 55, that should tell you that Vegas see Stanford dominating this game.
Washington State enters this game scoring over 38 points per game, but Stanford has allowed just 8.6 ppg. In these games the defense wins out. Teams in at least game six of the season who are averaging at least 30 points per game and are facing a team allowing less than 14.1 points per game are 87-131-6 ATS (tApoints>=30 and oAo:points=6 and season>=2006).
The Cardinal are coming off games they went under the total by 15.5 and 15 points. Teams who went under the total by more than 15 last game and at least 15 two games ago are 154-119-8 ATS (pou margin<-15 and pp:ou margin<=-15).
They suffered a 17-14 loss at Notre Dame last weekend. Stanford is 9-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since September 20, 2008 in the first 11 games of the season when the total is under 54 coming off a loss (team=STAN and p:L and total<=54 and game number=20080920).
The Cougars meanwhile saw their last game go over by 45.5 points. Teams that went over by more than 36 points last game are 109-133-2 OU (pou margin>36).
That game didn't have a low total either at 73.5. Teams that are playing to a total at least 17 points lower than their last game are 48-68-1 ATS (total - p:total=45). Also, teams that lost by 1-2 points last game while scoring more than 35 points are 49-79-3 ATS (p:L and p:points>35 and p:margin>=-2).
The Cougars don't generally play that well after scoring big. Washington State is 0-12 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since January 2003 after a game where they scored at least 38 points as not more than a 21-point favorite, if they weren't a home dog, or favorite of less than two points.
Bob Balfe
Baltimore Orioles -125
This game might not even get underway with bad weather, but you have to like the Orioles chances this year. This team has come along way little by little each of the last few seasons and it would take almost a perfect script for Kansas City to pull this series off. I am not saying the Royals are lucky because they create their own luck, but it is a matter of time before their cinderella season comes to a close. Take the Orioles.
Harry Bondi
WASHINGTON STATE (+16) over Stanford
Best passing offense in the nation, Washington State, squares off against the best pass defense, Stanford, tonight and we will gladly take the more than two touchdowns with the pass happy Cougars. Washington State already went toe to toe with Oregon before losing by 7 and traditionally play the Cardinal tough at home going 5-2 ATS their last 7 trips to Palo Alto. Cougars also good for a back door cover if necessary as they will be throwing until the final gun and the trends back that up as they are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games as dogs of more than 14 points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Stanford/ Washington State Over 55: The Cardinal has come into this game with conservative offenses before and yet have score 38 or more in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. Now with the way that Washington State has scored this was and with the way that Connor Halliday is just chucking the ball all over the field you have to expect that Stanford will have to open up the game a little. This is a god spot for them to work on a bit more wide open a game as they will be taking on a horrible Washington defense that is 110th vs the pass and 105th in points scored, giving up 35.2 ppg. The Cougars on offense has been held to less than 28 points just once this year and I know that was at Nevada, but really it was just an off night for Connor and company and I don't see that happening here as Connor is in an incredible Zone right now. Granted he will be facing a tough defense, but the Cardinal did allow Everett Golson to throw for 241 yards last week. GThe Cardinal is not used to high scoring games, but I don't think they can win this game without putting up many points as the Washington State offense is very hard to stop. I can see 60+ points in this one.
Dr. Bob
San Diego State (-3.5) 27 NEW MEXICO 23
San Diego State's back quarterback Bawden was dreadful last week but the Aztecs will be able to run the ball extremely well in this game against a New Mexico State defense that allows 274 rushing yards at 6.8 yards per rushing play. My math favors them by 4 1/2 points with Aztecs starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler still out and I get a total of 50 1/2 points.
Bruce Marshall
San Diego State at New Mexico
Pick: New Mexico
SDSU not playing with a full deck as long as QB Kaehler (shoudler) remains sidelined, as true frosh backup Nick Bawden displayed plenty of rough spots in relief last week vs. Fresno State. Aztecs have not covered last five vs. Rocky Long's former employer New Mexico, which is gaining confidence for Bob Davie after last week's win at UTSA.
Joe Gavazzi
San Diego State vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico +4
Lobos have covered the last 5 in this series against their former mentor, Rocky Long, the current coach at San Diego St. That could well continue tonight, as Aztec QB Kaehler (shoulder) is expected to miss this contest. That thrusts QB Bawden into the lineup once again for State. That was not a positive in last week’s 24-13 loss at Fresno, when QB Bawden went just 9/24 for 84 yards. Against a questionable Fresno defense, the Aztecs could put up just 270 total yards. New Mexico is an equally inept defensive team, allowing 34 PPG and at least 240 YPG both running and passing. But in last week’s 21-9 New Mexico victory at UTSA, it appeared the Wolves were at last making defensive improvement. No question about the high-powered Lobo ground game that averages 323/6.1 overland. Along with Bawden yet to find his groove, it implies the Lobos’ victory in this game will not be a surprise to this bureau.
Alex Smart
NY Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Play: Carolina Hurricanes +116
The Islanders were one of those teams that did a great deal of upgrading in the off season, and many pundits believe they are now play off ready . Im not totally buying into the hype, as one of the key problems remains and that is HC Jack Capuano , who has consistently proven he is incapable of putting a cohesive team on the ice, no matter how much talent he has at his disposal. With that said, Im recommending we take the home team on a value line. Carolina is 16-3-4 in its last 23 meetings with the Islanders
Hollywood Sports
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is very tough at home where they have won 20 of their last 26 home games when hosting a team with a winning record. The Orioles have also won 12 of their last 16 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. Kansas City has lost 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. And in their last 11 meetings against a team from the AL East, the Royals have lost 8 of these contests.