Bruce Marshall
Temple at Cincinnati
Pick: Over
Home cooking has worked thus far for Cincinnati, which is scoring 54 ppg at Nippert Stadium this season. And believe re-focused Bearcats bounce back for American home opener following sluggish 26-20 loss at previously-winless South Florida last Saturday. Watch Bearcats' productive 6th-year sr. QB Brendon Kay (67%, 7 TDs; 244 YP vs. Temple LY) dissect (again) a soft-covering Owl secondary (only 3 picks since last season; 0 in 2013!). Just a little help from the Temple offense pushes this one "over" tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series - ST. LOUIS +120 over Los Angeles
Game 1 - ST. LOUIS +116 over Los Angeles
Yes indeed the Dodgers have Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw as their 1-2 but after that things get a little shaky with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ricky Nolasco and Edinson Volquez. Ryu was whacked by the Braves in his only post-season appearance so far, Nolasco was scratched from his start because Don Mattingly didn’t like what he saw in the bullpen session hours before game time and Volquez is far too erratic to trust in a playoff game. Nolasco also labored down the stretch, allowing 24 hits and 20 runs in his final 13 innings of work over four appearances. Grienke starts the opener in St. Louis and he’s been far from gold on the road with a pedestrian xERA of 4.68. Batters hit .263 off Greinke on the road and current Cardinals have 34 hits in 113 AB’s off him for a BA of .301. The Cardinals had the second best home record in the majors by going 54-27 and they get home field advantage for this series.
The Cardinals open with Joe Kelly who saw action against Pittsburgh and was the losing pitcher in Game 3 of the NLDS. Kelly was still effective with just five hits allowed in 5.1 frames. Kelly entered the year as the Cardinals' seventh or eighth best option at starting pitcher. Heading into September, he was not only locked into the rotation, he was the Cards most effective starter. In August, Kelly had won 4 straight starts, all quality starts, by inducing tons of ground balls and getting some help from his defense. He features a two-seam fastball that sits at 95 mph and his groundball rate this season was an elite 51%. Over his last six starts, his groundball rate was 56%. Win or not, Kelly at least gives the Cards a shot in Game 1 but after that, St. Louis has three outstanding starters in Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn. Wacha has allowed two hits over his last two starts, one in each game. Wacha has been dazzling at every level and he’s now found that dominating form at this level too. Adam Wainwright is a true ace in every sense. He’s the NL’s version of Justin Verlander only better because he rarely walks a batter and dominates line-ups. From a starting pitching standpoint, we give a big edge to the Cardinals because of four outstanding and reliable starters while the Dodgers, after Clayton Kershaw, does not have any sure quality starts. We like the Cardinals bats and experience and they also have the best catcher in the world that calls the games and makes a huge difference in the outcome of most. Great series but the value here is on the Cardinals, a team with home field, a better manager (Mattingly has already made some questionable decisions that didn’t hurt his team against Atlanta), and a much better pitching staff (hell, we didn’t even mention Shelby Miller, a guy that was between Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale in the MLB ERA race).
We’re going to play the Cardinals for the series and we’re also playing them in Game 1 tonight and in Game 2 tomorrow. Imagine, St. Louis a pooch at home in both games to open the series. That’s just wrong.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Islanders/CHICAGO Over 6
The Blackhawks are coming off back-to-back losses but they ran into a couple of hot goaltenders in Ben Bishop and Jaroslav Halak. The same fate likely does not await them here. The Blackhawks scored six times in their opener against Washington’s weak defense and although Evgeni Nabokov has looked decent at times this season, it’s only a matter of time before he and that Islanders defense blows up. Nabokov is probably among the NHL’s worst starting goalies. Nabokov’s last regular season, while passable, towered over the .842 save percentage he pitched in the playoffs. He’s a year older and slower in a season the league has opted to make the gear smaller. That’s great news for over bettors because he’s all of about 5′11″ so he doesn’t need big gear or anything. But no, it probably won’t be a problem for the Isles, because he’ll be playing in front of names like Brian Strait (not Streit), Travis Hamonic (he’s a d-man?), and Thomas Hickey (the guy Crosby casually roasted for one of last year’s highlight goals. Toews and Kane figure to do a little roasting of their own here.
The Islanders are young and fast and have the horses to score goals. They’ve scored 12 times already in their first three games and that includes six on a defensive minded Coyotes squad in their last game. The Islanders figure to score at least a couple tonight because the Blackhawks have chosen to give Corey Crawford the night off in favor of Nikolai Khabibulin. Khabibulin played in 12 games last season. He’s 40 years old and hasn’t played a period this year. Over his last three seasons, he has a W/L record of 26-58 with a .908 save percentage. That’s weak and for a guy with more rust than any starting goaltender in the NHL and so he’s not a good bet to thrive tonight. What we have here is two prolific offenses going head-to-head against two of the worst goalies in the league.
Dallas +114 over WINNIPEG
OT included. The Jets are coming off back-to-back losses to Anaheim and Minnesota in which they mustered just 17 and 15 shots on net respectively. The numbers in 2013 were ugly for the Jets. They had an abomination of a powerplay (dead last in league, 13.8%), a poor penalty kill (below 80%, 24th), a crappy 5-on-5 goals for/against ratio (0.90, better than only seven bad teams: Florida, Calgary, Colorado, New Jersey, Carolina, Philly and Minnesota) and they gave up 2.94 goals against (25th in league). Winnipeg’s top forwards are Blake Wheeler, Evander Kane and Bryan Little so it should come as no surprise that they’re firing away less shots a game than the Sharks accomplish in one period. Oh, and Winnipeg didn’t get better over the summer. As a pooch in certain situations, the Jets may offer up some value but as the chalk against quality opposition they offer up none.
Dallas has played just two games so far and has not played since October 5th. Some may see that has a hindrance but we see it as a positive, as it allowed this talented group to practice together after watching films of their first two games. The Stars easily took the biggest stride in the off-season. First, Jim Nill took over the GM duties and he was the mastermind of the Red Wings’ great teams over the past 20 years. They added intelligent disciplinarian Lindy Ruff as their bench boss to take control of a group with a ton of potential. All of a sudden they’re loaded down the middle, which is a big change. They traded for budding superstar Tyler Seguin, who is on the verge of a huge year. They got him just in time to suck the maximum value out of him after Boston spent a few years teaching him to play all 200 feet. They just named Jamie Benn their new captain, a huge body with a massive shot who’s nearly impossible to contain. They added Shawn Horcoff to their list of underrated players to go along with their other new center, Rich Peverly. They’ve got proven offensive talent in Ray Whitey and Erik Cole to go along with one of the Calder Trophy front-runners in Valeri Nichushkin. That kid is going to be a legit star in this league and immediately makes them better. All that talent plays in front of one of the league’s best goalies in Kari Lehtonen, who has the luxury of playing behind breakout experts Sergei Gonchar and Alex Goligoski. That kind of skill means less turnovers and less time in your own zone. This team has a flashy new set of duds, a new attitude, and the talent to change the balance of power in the West. With six days to prepare and raring to get back to work, the Stars are hugely undervalued in in this game.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Under in Temple and Cincinnati.
This one is real simple, Temple is giving a true-freshman his first collegiate start, and on the road at that! That is how desperate things are for the Owls who come into the Queen City winless on the campaign, and scoring an average of just 12 points per game.
Doubtful Temple gets too many scoring opportunities tonight, and my only fear is that Cincinnati takes this one right up to the posted total all by themselves, but I will shade against that happening.
The Bearcats have scored 20 points or less in 3 of their 5 games this season, and last year's meeting between the teams saw just 44 combined points scored.
Have to back the Under tonight in Temple-Cincinnati.
2♦ TEMPLE-CINCINNATI UNDER
Craig Davis
Your Friday free play winner is Under the total in the Temple-Cincinnati college football contest.
Cincinnati needs to get its act together or they will likely be scrambling for a Bowl game before the end of the season gets here.
Granted, they are clearly better than the 0-5 Temple Owls, but I have been less-than-impressed with the Bearcats through five games of the season despite their 3-2 record.
Over their last three games, Cincy got whipped by Illinois, barely beat Miami, Oh., and gave South Florida their first win of the season. Embarrassing!!
What will keep this game low scoring is the Owl defense, which didn't allow more than 30 points against Notre Dame, Houston and Louisville! And after watching Cincy's offensive line just get whipped up front by South Florida... and Cincy's offensive line was supposed to be the strength of their team.
The Temple offense is putrid, and now being led by a true freshman. Granted, the kid is a potential stud, but he's still a freshman. I don't see them scoring a lot of points tonight.
Take the UNDER in tonight's Temple/Cincy game as your free play of the day.
2♦ TEMPLE-CINCINNATI UNDER
Bob Balfe
L.A Dodgers -120
The Cardinals are amazing at home and that is why this game is so crucial to the Dodgers with Zack Grienke on the mound tonight. L.A paid a lot of money for some key players in the offseason and this is where their investment needs to pay off. I don’t think there are too many pitchers that can be mentioned in the likes of Greinke. This is going to be a great series. Take the Dodgers.
Harry Bondi
CINCINNATI (-20.5) over Temple
Nice winner last night here with San Diego State (-3) over Air Force. Tonight we'll go with another favorite. Following a stunning 26-20 loss to South Florida last week as a 10-point favorite, the Bearcats and head coach Tommy Tuberville are in a must-win situation here tonight as fans and alumni are getting antsy. The loss to the Bulls last week was a bit misleading. South Florida did not score an offensive TD in the game and got a couple of huge breaks when it returned a blocked field goal and a fumble for touchdowns. Overall, Cinci turned the ball over five times, the primary reason for the loss.
The Bearcats defense has been rock-solid all season, holding four of its five opponents to less than 250 yards of total offense. Temple is 0-5 straight up with disheartening losses to teams like Fordham and Idaho. The Owls have been overpowered by the more physical teams they have played, allowing over 500 yards of offense per game, and with the Bearcats in an angry mood, theyll have no mercy.
Cinci has always played well in front of its home crowd, going 2-0 ATS this season and 10-5 the last three years. Over the past 10 years the Bearcats have covered 57% of their games on this field. Lay the lumber.