Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday October, 12

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Navy vs. Central Michigan
Play: Under 60½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Navy plays its second straight road game, one on short rest, and they come off an emotional game against rival Air Force, a 28-21 OT loss. The Midshipmen are 4-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the MAC. The Central Michigan Chippewas have a fine offense (27.2 ppg) and come home from a 3-game road trip that included a stunning 32-31 upset at Iowa. They have a power back in Zurlon Tipton (6.2 ypc), a veteran QB in Ryan Radcliff and a balanced offense, led by a strong passing attack (257.2 yds per game). Play Central Michigan!

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Cardinals vs Nationals
Pick: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Wainwright and Gonzalez stayed well Under the number in their first meeting in this series. In an elimination game setting, I'll expect both teams to play station to station baseball and the result should be another low scoring contest. Under Cardinals-Nationals.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +126 over WASHINGTON

We’ve been supporters of Adam Wainwright all season long and at this price, we’re not about to pass up on him now. Wainwright is the straight goods with a 51% groundball rate, 184 K’s in 199 frames and excellent command of the strike zone. He suffered through some bad luck this year in terms of hit and strand percentages but the entire season his skill set was elite and remains so. Additionally, the Cardinals had one of the best records in the majors against southpaws with a 31-17 overall mark and will face another one here.

Like Wainright, Gio Gonzalez has elite skills. He’s been as good as any pitcher in the league and is a definite candidate for this year’s Cy Young Award. However, Gonzalez looked a little shaky in Game 1 of this series, which could be attributed to nerves. With everything on the line, Game 5 won’t be more settling. In that regard, we much prefer an experienced Cardinals team that always seems to come up with their best performances when it’s do or die. The Nationals are new on this scene but they figure to be back here for the foreseeable future but right now, experience could be the difference and on this night it offers enough value for us.

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-123)

Each of the last three games in this series have been decided by exactly one run. I look for this Game 5 to go right down to the wire as well and for the Orioles to give the Yankees a run for their money once again.

Jason Hammel is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 8-6 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in 21 starts this season, including 0-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in his last three. He allowed just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in Game 1 against the Yankees.

Baltimore is 32-15 against the run line in day games this season. The Orioles are 71-41 against the run line as an underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 this season. Baltimore is 49-27 against the run line vs. division opponents this year. Bet the Orioles on the Run Line Friday.

Jimmy Boyd

New York Yankees -1.5 +111

The last three games of the series have all been decided by a single run, but I like the Yankees to win this one by two-plus given the advantage they have on the hill with Sabathia.

The Yankees won Game 1 7-2 with Sabathia on the bump. They have won each of his last four starts with the last three wins all coming by at least five runs. Baltimore has dropped Jason Hammel's last two road starts with each of those losses coming by three runs.

Sabathia has long dominated the O's. He's 17-4 with an ERA of 3.07 in 26 career starts against them. His teams have won 7 of his last 8 home starts against Baltimore, and 6 of those wins have come by at least two runs.

Hammel is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.24 in 9 career starts against the Yankees. His teams have lost 4 of his 5 career starts at Yankee Stadium, and 3 of those losses came by 2 runs or more. Take the Yankees on the run line.

Bob Balfe

Central Michigan -1 over Navy

For starters if I released games of the month, gold star, triple diamond selections this would be one of them. This is as strong as a play as far as physical matchups that I have seen all year. Navy is a running team, but they are not as skilled as they once were. This is due to too many young players blocking and not being skilled enough yet to run their triple option offense. This team is not going to blow teams out like they did in the past. Their starting quarterback will miss tonight’s game and that is big because making the wrong decision could mean pitching it to a guy running the other way. Central Michigan did us in last week as the blew a cover with under a minute left by throwing their second pick 6 of the game. As much as you want to write a team off for doing that its silly to bring your emotions into the following week. Navy has a young secondary and I just don’t think they have the play makers to jump balls for interception touchdowns. Central Michigan has a big offensive line and I just do not see Navy’s Defense stopping these guys. At the end of the day its always the team that score mores that wins. If Navy gets down there is no way they throw to get back in this game. Look for CMU to win this game with ease.

Hollywood Sports

Cardinals atNationals
Prediction: Over

Washington (100-66) forced this decisive fifth game last night after their 2-1 win coming via Jason Werth's walk-off home run -- and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total against an opponent that allowed only two runs or less in their last game. The Over is also 5-2-1 in the Nationals' last 8 games following a victory. Furthermore, with the Total set at 6.5, that is too low for this single-elimination contest. Washington has played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set at 6.5 or lower. St. Louis (91-76) has seen the Over go 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games with the number at 6.5 or less. The Cardinals have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total following a loss. Additionally, in St. Louis' last 10 games after not scoring at least three runs, 8 of these games finished Over the Total. Take the Over in this one.

Andre Gomes

New York Yankees -1

The Yankees are big favorites for this contest, but this happens for some reason and this is due to a huge pitching edge they will have in here,especially when I expect this game to become a pitchers duel. I expect Sabathia to go deeper in the league than Hammel and with that, the Orioles' bullpen will be more used today than the Yankees' bullpen and this will cause them problems today. Hammel threw 113 pitches on the Game 1 of this series and that's a lot for a player coming from the DL who didn't pitch for about a month. He had a 19.8 pitch/IP in that outing and this is why he threw 113 pitches in just 5.2 innings. With the last two games of the series only ending in the 12th and 13th innings, Baltimore's top 3 bullpen players (O'Day, Johnson and Strop) were used yesterday on 1.0, 2.2 and 2.0 innings and if we add to this the fact that the Yankees' SP have always gone deeper than Baltimore's SP in this series (8.2 vs 5.2; 7.0 vs 6.1; 8.1 vs 7.0; 6.2 vs 5.2), I believe the Yankees will have a clear pitching edge on this contest, with their bullpen being more rested, excluding Soriano, as their #2 bullpen player Robertson threw just 8 pitches yesterday.

The Yankees offense has been better against RH pitchers and this is the main reason why Baltimore decided to start the LH Saunders yesterday. In fact, the Yankees offense is #6 against LHP and #1 against RHP and on contests against RH pitchers, Joe Girardi has more flexibility to make changes on his lineup and with Jeter being able to play at SS and with A-Rod out, the Yankees lineup will be at their current best today, with Ibanez as DH and Chavez at 3B. I expect the Yankees to be able to put Hammel in some problems today and with Sabathia + bullpen dominating the Orioles, I expect a comfortable win for the Yankees today. So, I'll be taking the Yankees in here.

Scott Delaney

Sometimes there's something to be said about a line move on a side in a game, and what this tells me is the sharps are thinking Central Michigan will be able to put up some points in this game. After all, the line opened with Navy as the 3.5-point road favorite, but has since moved to Central Michigan -2, where it sits right now.

Now you have to understand, a significant line move of 5.5 points onto a team that has allowed 105 points in its last two games and allows an average of 40.8 points per game, well, someone thinks this is going to be a shootout.

I do realize Navy is handin the offense over to freshman quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who took over for Trey Miller on the road with the Midshipmen trailing Air Force 21-13 in the fourth quarter last week. But Reynolds seemed comfortable under center, commanded his troops an led Navy to an eventual 28-21 win in overtime.

With a week to prepare, and him leading what is really a run-first offense, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. See, Navy's option offense turns to the run 70 percent of the time, as it ranks second in the nation in rushing with 390.8 yards per game, and make note Central Michigan ranks 117th in the nation at stopping the run with 233.2 yards allowed per game.

The Chippewas' strength, meanwhile, is ranked 45th in the country. Now, admittedly, the Middies are pretty damn good against the pass, but they haven't faced anything strong since the first two games of the year - both blowout losses. So with CMU playing at home here in Mount Pleasant, I think the Chipps will have a big game via the air.

Let's count on this one going over, as both teams will get into the 30s. Want to know who I like against the spread, well that 30-Dime winner is waiting for you. But as for the total, it's going Over.

4♦ OVER Navy/CMU

Craig Davis

84-72 with my free plays.

Friday free play winner on Central Michigan.

Both Central Michigan and Navy are 2–3 on the season as they get set for a battle of different style offenses at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.

The Chips return home after a three–game road trip and they should be welcomed by a rather big crowd. This might be the biggest test of the year (thus far) for the Chippewas with Navy's triple-option offense. Central Michigan's defense has been mainly tested by opposing passing offenses to date, so they need to be ready to make the adjustment to a team that's going to run the ball 75% of the time... or more.

Central Michigan's offense shouldn't have trouble moving the ball against Navy's defense, but they probably don't want Navy to have the ball last. If you'll remember Week 1, CMU had some trouble with SE Missouri State's triple-option offense, so it's hard for me to believe the Chips will be able to shut down Navy. They just need to contain them and not let them go nuts... which I think they will.

Offensively, Ryan Radcliff just needs to make sure they sustain some long drives in order to give their defense a rest. Eliminate turnovers and keep drives going for longer than three plays and I don't see any way Navy wins this game.

Let's also not forget Navy will be using a new QB, Keenan Reynolds, as starter Trey Miller suffered an injury last week. CMU's defense has seen just enough of this type of offense to be able to contain it.

I like Central Michigan 31-27 tonight as your free play of the day.

2♦ CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Jeff Benton

14-7 freebie run after Tulsa cashes in last night.

Your Friday freebie is the Middies of Navy plus the points at Central Michigan.

Granted, this is not one of your "vintage" Navy editions, but they sure showed some fight last week when they kept their bowl hopes alive with an overtime outright win as the underdog at Air Force last weekend!

Navy has played the far tougher schedule, as they have already played undefeated Notre Dame and a resurgent Penn State team as well.

As for the Chippewas, they come in at 2-3 straight up, but it is against the spread that has been the real problem for Dave Enos' team. Central Mich is on a 2-15 spread slide since last season, and a money-burning 4-21 downturn their last 25 lined affairs!

CMU is also allowing well over five yards per carry on the ground. That is good news for the Middies option attack.

Navy plus the points the call tonight.

3♦ NAVY

Matt Rivers

Tonight take the Under in the St. Louis-Washington contest.

The Cards have been able to come up with some flashes of offense in this series, but with Games One and Four having played Under, I will look for this do-or-die contest to see strong pitching and for it to be played close to the vest and land Under the total.

It is a Game One pitching rematch of Adam Wainwright and Gio Gonzalez and that game ended as a 3-2 final.

Wainwright has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts, while Gonzalez has pitched his last 23 innings at home without allowing an earned run.

With all hands on deck tonight as far as the pitching is concerned, there shouldn't be too many runs scored in this one.

Play Game Five to land just Under the posted total tonight.

2♦ ST. LOUIS-WASHINGTON UNDER