Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 1,2010

Marc Lawrence

Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

The A's and Mariners meet in a season-ending series finale when Trevor Cahill matches serves with Lucas French in Seattle this evening. Cahill enters with wins in eight of his last 11 road team starts and seven of his last 11 starts during the month of September. On the flip side, French is 1-3 with a 5.55 ERA in his last four starts, the last an inside-out win in which French picked up the win despite the fact he lasted just five innings while allowing 11 batters on base in the victory. Back the All-Star arm arm in his swan song here tonight.

Frank Jordan

BYU vs. Utah State
Play: Utah St +3.5

BYU started off on the right foot with a home at win over Washington but it was down hill after that with three straight losses where they scored a combined 37 points. Utah State is also 1-3 on the year and also stated pretty well losing by just 7 at number 7 Oklahoma then came home and won 38-17, but have been blown out the last two weeks allowing 41 points in each week and scored a total of 31. Look for a decent scoring game with Utah State getting their second win of the year. Play Utah State

Ultimate Sport Picks

BYU vs. Utah State
Play: BYU -4.5

We like BYU to cover in this match up. It is a battle of 1-3 teams this Friday Night. Both Teams have been struggling this year, most thought Utah St would struggle this year but most did not expect BYU to play this bad to begin the season. Being at home on a Nationally Televised game on Friday Night gives the home team a very big advantage. Utah St gets the big advantage having the home crowd and not having to travel. BYU will have to weather the storm early and may have to deal with Utah St playing very well behind there home crowd in the first half. Once the storm clears you will start to see that BYU is the better team. BYU will also be very anxious to show that they are a better team than there record indicates, and what better stage than on a Nationally Televised game. Both teams can move the ball, Utah St's quarterback Diondre Borel has the ability to run or throw the ball well, BYU will need to get some pressure on him and make him very uncomfortable through out the game. BYU on offense needs to just stay balanced Utah St's defense will have a lot of problems slowing BYU down. As long as BYU can get the crowd out of the game and avoid turnovers they should be able to walk a way from this one with a much needed win.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets

The Mets qualify in a solid system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home teams if both teams come in off home losses by 5 or more runs. This system cashes 80% and I can tighten it to 88%. The Mets are home off 3 home losses for just the second time this season. They catch Washington in one their worst roles. The Nationals are 2-14 as a road dog from +100 to +125. P. Misch has been decnt at home in his starts with the Mets. I expect he will keep them in this game. The Nationals send a struggling J. Zimmerman to the hill tonight. Zimmerman has a 5.76 era in limited work this year. Washington is just 5-12 off a day off this year. Look for the Mets to get the home win here tonight.

BIG AL

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox

Andy Pettitte has a habit of playing possum at the end of the season just prior to frustrating the heck out of his opponents in the post season. Last year, for example, Pettitte was extremely lackluster in the last month, going 2-2 with a 4.94 ERA in five September/October starts and he ended the regular season with a particularly ugly outing in Tampa on October 3. But then when the AL playoffs began just days later, Pettitte looked like a new man. He went 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts during the ALDS and ALCS, arguably becoming the Yanks most valuable player up to the World Series. This year the veteran lefthander seems to be at it again, as Pettitte is 0-2 with an ugly 6.75 ERA in two September starts coming into tonight, and although the Yanks are in a pennant race this year - which they were not at this time last season - at this point they may very well be more focused on making sure their rotation is sound for the ALDS. Barring a return of the groin problem that Pettitte suffered earlier, he will be a part of that rotation and the Yanks would love to get him up to 100 pitches tonight, but that could be a tall order against the Red Sox and righthander Daisuke Matsuzaka who is coming into this start of off one of his best outings of the season against this same Yankee club. A sweep by the Sox would not only assure that the Yankees would not repeat as Division Champions but would also give Boston the season series this year, 10-8, so there is still some motivation tonight in front of the home crowd. Take the Sox.

DAVID CHAN

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are worth taking a shot on at this big of a 'dog price.

The Phillies have clinched the NL East Division, while the Braves are in a fight for the wild-card spot. But the Phillies are relaxed and have one of the best benches in baseball.

The Phillies are 10-1 the past 11 times they've been underdogs.

There's tremendous pressure on Braves rookie Brandon Beachy, who is making just his third big league start and has never won. The Phillies saw him for 4 1/3 innings during his first start.

Kyle Kendrick gets the start for the Phillies pitching on extra rest. Philadelphia is 15-5 when Kendrick pitches on five days rest.

Kendrick is a bottom of the rotation type pitcher, but he does well versus Atlanta. He's 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA in nine career games against the Braves with a 0.72 ERA in his last four appearances against them.

Jim Feist

Athletics vs. Mariners
Take: Over

A pair of arms on the hill who can't get anyone out. Trevor Cahill has really been struggling, with a 7.94 ERA his last three starts. He's also 0-3 in his career against the light hitting Mariners, allowing 32 base runners in 23 innings. Seattle lefty Luke French has a 5.21 ERA his last three starts and has been hit hard by the A's this season, at 0-2 against them allowing 19 base runners in 11 innings (6.35 ERA). Look for an offensive show, Play the Oakland A's/Mariners Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Oakland A's -124

The Seattle Mariners' position in the division has already been determined, as they're simply trying to avoid another 100 loss season but the A's are still fighting for second place in the division. Oakland is now trying to finish higher than third for the first time since winning the division in 2006 and although it's not the same as playing for first place, the A's are making the most of the tight race for second in the AL West. Both Oakland and Seattle are bad offensive clubs, with the Mariners being very bad and being that this game is being played in Seattle which is a pitcher park would indicate that it should not take many runs to pick up the win. That being said I think that A's have a big advantage in this match up tonight. Oakland's starting pitcher Trevor Cahill was knocked around in his last start against the Rangers, but I like him to bounce back in his last start of the season against the light hitting Mariners. Cahill has been the ace of the Oakland staff this season and will try to become the A's first eighteen game winner in nine years. Luke French makes the start for Seattle and French has been up and down all season. In two starts against the A's this year, the lefty is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.35. I look for Oakland to do some damage against French once again and it should only take a few runs of support for Trevor Cahill and the A's to pick up the win. Play on Oakland.

Steve Merril

Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros

Houston returns home where they've been a solid team in the second half of the season. Bud Norris has reaped the benefits of this, especially as of late. Norris has given up just seven runs in his last 27.1 innings pitched at home while defeating the Brewers, Dodgers, Mets, and Pirates over that span. The righty has made one career start against the Cubs, and that came earlier this season. In that game, Norris gave up one run and four hits in six innings of work while striking out seven and walking only three. The Cubs will be flying from San Diego into Houston for tonight’s game. In the second half of the season, the Astros have won six of their ten home series while splitting two others. The Astros bullpen is 13-12 with a 4.17 ERA at home with only eight blown saves as a unit.

Casey Coleman makes his eight start of the season for the Cubs. He's 3-2 with a 3.89 ERA. The righty started against Houston in Chicago back on September 6th. In that game, he gave up four runs and eight hits in six innings of work while walking five in that outing. The Cubs are 32-44 against the rest of the N.L. Central and 5-10 against the Astros this season. The Cubs bullpen has a terrible record and ERA on the road this season. We like Norris and the situation for Houston so we’ll recommend a play on the Astros in this game tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -145

Off back-to-back defeats, I expect the Rays to get back in the win column tonight. The Royals have been playing quality baseball, but I don't trust Bruce Chen in this spot. Tampa Bay has put up big offensive numbers against lefty starters all season, and they are 36-19 in all games against southpaw starters as a result. Recently, the Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. In addition, the Rays have been money in the second game of a series, winning 86 of their last 125 Game 2's. I also like James Shields' strong history against KC. He's 5-1 (6-1 on the ML) lifetime when starting against the Royals with an ERA of 3.33. Also, the Rays are 7-1 in Shields' last 8 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Even with last night's loss, the Rays have still won 11 of their last 15 with the Royals. Take Tampa Bay in this bounce back spot.

Tom Freese

Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Oakland Athletics

Oakland starter Trevor Cahill has allowed 9 runs total in his last 5 starts. The A's are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. lefty starters and they are 8-3 their last 11 games as road favorites. Oakland is 17-8 their last 25 games vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. Cahill is 11-0 his last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their last game. Seattle starter Luke French is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched. The Mariners are 17-44 their last 61 games as underdogs and they are 6-14 their last 20 games overall.

Rocketman

Colorado @ St Louis
Play: Colorado

Both teams come in with records of 83-76 overall this year. St Louis is 1-6 last 3 years in October. Colorado bullpen has a 3.63 ERA on the road this season. Jorge De La Rosa is 8-6 overall this year. Jake Westbrook is 9-11 overall this year. Colorado is 12-6 overall vs St Louis last 3 years and 3-1 overall vs St Louis this year. De La Rosa is 3-1 overall vs St Louis since 1997. Colorado has actually stepped up their play against teams with a winning record as they are 51-37 in that role this season. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado tonight!

Info Plays

3* on Los Angeles Dodgers -150

Reasons the Dodgers win:

1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Any team (LA DODGERS) - after 3 straight wins by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games. This is a 37-6 ML System hitting 86% since 1997.

2.) The Dodgers just swept the Rockies last season to get to 78-81 on the season. Los Angeles wants to finish with a .500 record, so they'll have to sweep this series to do so and it starts with Game 1 tonight. Bet the Dodgers at home.

Tony George

BYU -3.5

Opened at -6.5 and dropped 3 points, BYU starting a frosh QB against a pesky Utah State team. BYU is in rare form lsoing 3 games, but I assure you they are the better team. On the road here looks like a take for the home dog, and more than anything a gut feel type game for me. I have a 5 point overlay with BYU which I cannot make a premium play on, and I am not forcing plays at any point. Other cappers may have a much strobger lean one way or the other, this is just my take.

I do not think the talent gap has closed this much between Utah State and BYU, and this is the shortest line I have seen between these 2 in years. While BYU has had some injuries and lost a ton to graduation, this is a MUST WIN game for them without question. While BYU offense only scoring 15 ppg, the good news is the face a defense that is like a funnel for opposing teams to get to the end zone and were exposed last week at SDSU where thwey allowed 41 points and got waxed. BYU steps up here for a 7 point win in my opinion.