SPORTS WAGERS
CALGARY –3½ over Montreal
The Stamps were rolling along with a 9-1 record before losing its last two. Last week’s 29-10 loss to the Lions at home was especially disturbing but don’t make too much of that. The Stamps are the best team in the CFL and it’s not close. They took the Lions lightly and perhaps they were looking ahead to this one. They’ll absolutely be ready to play tonight. Calgary has the best offensive line and defensive line in the league and they also have more skilled players than anyone. When their on their game, as they should be tonight, they’re capable of blowing away anyone including these Als. Montreal is coming off another fortunate win. They went into Winnipeg last week and escaped with a narrow 44-40 victory. They trailed most of the way and pulled one out of its hat. The Als have at least three wins that could’ve easily gone the other way and its 9-3 record is the result of some extremely good fortune. Montreal’s defense leaves plenty to be desired. They give up a ton of big plays week after week and that’s not a small problem, it’s a large one. Also note the Als will travel for the second consecutive week and they’re playing the best team in the CFL off of back-to-back losses. The Als are the best team in the East but that’s not saying much. They’ll get exposed here as just another inferior team to the Stamps. Don’t miss this play. Play: Calgary –3½ +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -1.5 +120
Pittsburgh is an absolutely atrocious 16-61 as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season, losing these games by an average score of 3.2 to 5.9. When on the road and listed as an underdog of +125 to +175, the Pirates are an even worse 5-40 this season, losing these games by an average score of 2.9 to 6.5. Plus, Pittsburgh is sending a pitcher to the hill (McCutchen), who is 0-4 with an ERA of 9.00 on the road this year. We'll take the Fish on the run line.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins now sit just 1 game behind the Rays and Yankees for home-field advantage in the American League. The Twins need to finish strong in these final three game with Toronto, knowing that home-field advantage is likely their ticket to the World Series. That's because Minnesota is 52-26 at home this season, hitting .285 and scoring 5.0 RPG.
Carl Pavano looks to continue his impressive season, going 17-11 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 31 starts. Ricky Romero has been off his mark lately for Toronto, going 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Minnesota is a very profitable 58-21 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. The Twins are also 10-1 against the money line in home games when playing on Friday this season. The Twins are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Minnesota Friday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -152
The Giants have won 4 in a row overall and 7 straight with Matt Cain on the hill. The Giants are also an impressive 23-9 in their last 32 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Expect the Giants to march into the postseason with a win over San Diego tonight.
Hollywood Sports
Cubs at Astros
Play: Under
While Bud Norris 9-9 with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP this season, his numbers improve at home to a 4.54 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP this season. He will have success against a Cubs' team that is hitting only .195 against right-handed starters over their last ten games. He faces off against Casey Coleman with his 3-2 record along with a 4.68 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. Coleman has looked good in his last three starts as he boasts a 2.84 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. And away from Wrigley Field, Coleman has been tough with a 2.96 ERA and 1.13. The Cubs have played eight of their last ten games Under the Total when listed in the 7-8.5 range. And the Astros have played six of their last eight games Under the Total with Norris on the hill and the Total listed in the 7-8.5 range.
Vegas Experts
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
The Giants can finish off the Padres with just one win in this weekend's three game series and we think they will clinch tonight behind Matt Cain, who boasts a perfect 9-0 team start record after walking one or less hitters in each of his two previous outings. Giants have won 24 of his last 32 starts at home. The team is also 12-3 at home after allowing one run or less in their previous game. San Diego starter Richard has a 7.41 ERA L3 starts.
Play on: San Francisco
LT Profits
Diamondbacks / Dodgers Under 8½
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers are just playing out the string as they wrap up their seasons this weekend, and with the ‘under’ going 5-1 in the last six Arizona games and the Dodgers playing for a lame duck manager in Joe Torre, don’t look for much offense here.
The bookmakers have installed a total of 8½ for this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -115.
The Diamondbacks are simply offensively challenged, so their .239 team batting average on the road including .232 vs. right-handed pitchers is not a fluke. The Dodgers, on the other hand, had high expectations this season and they simply quit on Torre once they dropped out if contention. Of course it does not help moral that Torre has already said on the record that he would “listen’ if the New York Mets offered him their managerial position during the off-season.
Clayton Kershaw was originally scheduled to start this game, but Torre has decided to hold him out for the season. Instead, John Ely gets the start for Los Angeles, and he actually pitched very well for the Dodgers in spots earlier this year. Perhaps his best outing came vs. these D-Backs here in Dodgers Stadium, when he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing only two hits in a 1-0 LA victory.
Meanwhile, Zachary Kroenke is making his first Major League start for Arizona. Kroenke posted a decent 3.51 ERA in the minors, and considering that the Dodgers are batting a pitiful .228 over their last 10 games and that they are anxious to just get this season over with already, Kroenke has a chance to succeed in his starting debut here.
Look for a lot of first pitch swinging tonight from two teams that can’t wait until Sunday evening.
Black Widow
1* on Houston Astros -118
Houston has made an incredible second half run, and they want to cap it off with a solid series against the Cubs starting with Game 1 Friday. Chicago has dropped 10 of 15 to the Astros this season, including four of six at Minute Maid Park. Bud Norris did allow 5 runs to the Pirates last time out, but he was 7-1 with a 3.52 ERA in his previous 11 contests. So this guy is still pitching very well in the second half. Houston is 44-36 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. The Astros are also a very healthy 44-31 (+22.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. Houston is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Take the Astros on the Money Line.
Chris Jordan
Milwaukee at CINCINNATI (-140)
Now on a 30-13 run with MLB free plays, and today I am going to roll with the Reds over the Brewers, laying a cheap price in this National League Central showdown.
Last night it was back to business as usual, as the Reds' regulars were back in the lineup to take on Brett Myers and the Astros.
Manager Dusty Baker knows he needs his Reds heading into the postseason on a winning run for momentum in the Divisional Series. And one thing that still is in question is whether or not the Reds will open the playoffs as the No. 2 seed, which means homefield advantage.
Cincinnati trails the Giants by two games with three to play in the race for the league’s second-best record behind Philadelphia, and since the Padres are in Frisco for a grueling series, the Reds know they need to win ball games to achieve their goal.
The Reds swept Milwaukee at home one month ago to improve to 9-2 in the season series.
I'll take Cincinnati in this series-opener.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Chuck O'Brien
Colorado at ST. LOUIS (-125)
For Friday’s complimentary selection, take St. Louis as a short home favorite against freefalling Colorado.
I’m hardly the biggest fan of Cardinals starter Jake Westbrook (although he has been decent since being traded from Cleveland to the National league, going 3-4 with a 3.88 ERA in 11 starts). But this isn’t a play on Westbrook (or the Redbirds for that matter) as much as it is a play against the Rockies, who have clearly thrown in the towel on the season since getting eliminated from postseason contention.
Since an impressive 20-6 run that put Colorado back into the N.L. West and Wild-Card races, the Rocks have dropped 10 of 11, including the last five in a row. Only two of those 11 defeats came against a playoff challenger (San Francisco), while the other nine were against the Dodgers, DBacks and Cardinals (who won last night’s series opener 6-1).
The Rockies’ 1-10 slump includes five straight road losses, which is only fitting because the highway has been the downfall of Jim Tracy’s club. Colorado is just 31-46 away from Denver, where it hits less than .230 as a team. At home, the Rockies went 52-29 and hit better than .300 as a team.
Westbrook has taken a liking to Busch Stadium (2-1, 2.42 ERA in four starts), while Colorado southpaw Jorge De La Rosa is just 2-3 with a 4.44 ERA in eight road starts (with the Rockies going 3-5).
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego (+145) at SAN FRANCISCO
Tonight's FREE winner comes from the diamond in the all-important matchup between the Padres and Giants from San Francisco as I go with San Diego to keep it interesting for yet another day.
For my comp winner, the Giants are going to win the National League West, but it’s not going to be tonight. San Diego arrives in San Francisco trailing the Giants by 3 games with three to play. The Padres don’t have what it takes to pull off the sweep, but they will get the win tonight.
Neither one of these teams has the ability to score many runs. But tonight, there’s something about a team with its back against the wall that usually comes out fighting. I’m looking for a great effort from the Padres tonight that delivers a win.
On the mound for San Diego is lefty Clayton Richard (13-9, 3.71 ERA) who is 7-3 on the road this season and who has dominated the Giants in five starts this season. Richard has limited the Giants to two runs or less in all five outings and the Padres are 4-1 when he takes the hill against San Francisco. The only loss he suffered was back on September 10 when he allowed one run on two hits in six innings of a 1-0 loss in San Diego. At San Francisco, Richard has allowed four runs in 13 innings of two Padres’ victories.
Up for the Giants is right-hander Matt Cain (13-10, 2.95 ERA) who has made four starts against the Padres this season and come up short in three of the four. In his only home start against the Padres this season, Cain allowed five runs on six hits in 6.2 innings of a 5-2 loss. The Giants are just 3-6 in his last nine starts against San Diego.
The Padres have taken 10 of the 15 meetings with San Francisco this season, including five of six in Northern California, and the Padres are 6-2 when Cain takes the hill at home.
San Diego is on streaks of 10-4 when Richard starts against N.L. West teams and 4-0 when he goes in the series opener. The Giants are on skids of 4-9 at home against teams with winning road records and 5-11 when Cain pitches on a Friday night.
I like the way Richard goes about his business and I’m looking for San Diego to win a tight one tonight, somewhere in the 3-2 range. Play the plus money with the Padres.
2♦ SAN DIEGO
Tyson
San Diego (+145) at SAN FRANCISCO
As for your Friday freebie, go with the Padres to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive tonight in San Francisco.
It's sweep or go home for San Diego, and I like them to get off to a winning start in the Bay Area this evening.
Sure, the current pitching form of Clayton Richard and Matt Cain suggests a play on the Giants, but San Francisco is just 2-6 the last 8 times Cain has faced the Padres at home, and this line is just a little inflated if you ask me.
The road team in the series this year has won 9 of the last 12 meetings, and I am going to bank on the road team to create a little interest out west heading into the Saturday card.
Take the Padres to keep their division title hopes alive.
1♦ SAN DIEGO
Michael Cannon
Detroit at BALTIMORE (-140) DH #2
Take the Orioles for the home win over the Tigers.
I can’t ignore the job Buck Showalter has done since taking over as manager of the Orioles. The team was well on its way to a 100-loss season when he started. But they are 31-22 since Showalter took over on August 3, including a 16-10 home record.
Jeremy Guthrie will start for Baltimore and he’s had a good season. The right-hander is 10-14 with a 3.98 ERA.
The Orioles have been playing well and they are using this last stretch as a springboard for next season. The Tigers, on the other hand, are just playing out the string.
Take the Orioles for the home win.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Craig Davis
NY Yankees (-125) at BOSTON
With three games to go, the Rays and Yankees are deadlocked in the AL East.
It's a key start for Andy Pettitte tonight as he needs to fine tune a few things before the playoffs start. His last start was not one of his best, and ironically, it was against the Red Sox. 7 runs over three innings and Pettitte was quickly run from the game. That won't happen tonight... not with this playoff atmosphere.
Boston gets to finish their season at home, and what better way to finish the season than at home vs. the hated Yankees? Dice K takes the hill tonight for the Red Sox and tries to get his first win in his last five starts. He did pitch well in the final game of the last series with the Yankees, but he didn't get a decision. He will tonight... it will be a loss.
The Yankees simply have too much on the line to play flat. I think they come out and lay the wood.
3♦ NY YANKEES
Karl Garrett
N.Y. Yankees (-130) at BOSTON
When the season started, everyone thought this weekend series at Fenway Park would be for the division title, well it is, it is just not a division title with the Red Sox involved.
New York still has a chance to take the AL East if they can string together a few wins this weekend, and the G-Man thinks it is very important for both the Yankees and starter Andy Pettitte to deliver a solid showing tonight.
Pettitte's first start back from his groin strain was a positive one in Baltimore, but last week he was bombed at home by Boston, lasting just over 3 innings in the loss.
I expect Pettitte to bounce-back and give the Yankees a chance for the win tonight against Matsuzaka and the Red Sox.
Dice-K looked sharp last week in his start against the Yankees, but wound up with the no-decision. Matsuzaka is 0-2 his last 4 starts overall, and his team has dropped 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5.
Gonna lay the road wood with New York to keep their division title hopes alive with the win tonight.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Stephen Nover
Toronto (+120) at MINNESOTA
As for my free selection tonight I'll offer the underdog Toronto Blue Jays against the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins haven't been playing well since capturing the AL Central Division. They've dropped six of their last seven games.
Getting the call for Minnesota is Carl Pavano, who has been cold with a 7.41 ERA in his last three starts. The Twins are 2-5 in Pavano's past seven outings.
Toronto starter Ricky Romero is going for his career-best 14th win. The Twins have yet to face him at Target Field.
Toronto has blasted 253 homers, which is the fourth-highest total in baseball history. The Blue Jays also have had the Twins' number beating them 19 of the past 26 times, including six of the last seven times in Minnesota.
3♦ TORONTO
Derek Mancini
Oakland at SEATTLE (+110)
Looking at this line, you have to question why the oddsmakers made Trevor Cahill (17-8, 3.08 ERA) such a small favorite here? I understand two of his last 3 starts have been ugly, but still this is Trevor Cahill versus Seattle and Lucas French. The same Lucas French that's 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in 2 starts against the A's this season! Something smells fishy here.
The problem with Cahill is fatigue. He's sitting at 189 2/3 innings right now, and ironically enough, we saw a similar breakdown in his final start of last season at Seattle. Look guys, we all know Cahill has been automatic at home, and yet he got crushed by the Rangers Sunday. He also got crushed in his last road start, where he's been vulnerable all season, going 6-5 with a very pedestrian 4.17 ERA. There's a reason the oddsmakers are trying to entice you to bet Cahill here, and that reason is he's in trouble tonight.
Finally, like Cahill, Lucas French has some very uneven home/road splits, but the good news is he's at Safeco tonight, where he's 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA. He's had issues against the A's this season, but he was much more efficient in his lone home start against them, and I expect he'll improve upon that tonight. 3 of his L4 starts have come on the road, so a return home is just what the doctor ordered for French. Factor in a bullpen that's outpitching the A's relievers right now, and the play here is on the Mariners. Take Seattle (French) over Oakland (Cahill) Friday.
2♦ SEATTLE