Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 14

Jack Jones

St. Louis Cardinals -115

I like the St. Louis Cardinals to take a 3-2 advantage in this series behind Jamie Garcia Friday. He has been dominant at home all season and this is an excellent price to back him.

Garcia is 9-5 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home in 2011. Zach Greinke has been at his worst away from home, going 5-6 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP on the road this season.

Garcia has been absolutely dominant at home over the last two seasons against Milwaukee. The lefty has pitched 22 innings without allowing a single earned run in his last three home starts against the Brewers.

The Brewers are 1-4 in Greinke's last 5 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss, and 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a right-handed starter. St. Louis is 10-1 in Garcia's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 8-2 in Garcia's last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Brewers/Cardinals UNDER 7.5

With just 6 total runs scored in Game 4, the Under is now 16-6-4 in the last 26 meetings between the Brewers and Cardinals in St. Louis. We've now seen 7 total runs scored or fewer in each of the last 7 meetings between these two in St. Louis. The Under is 5-1-1 in the Cardinals' last 7 home games and 8-2-4 in the Brewers' last 14 road games. The Under is also 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 home starts vs. the Brewers. We'll play by the numbers and make a small play on the Under here.

Jim Feist

Brewers vs Cardinals
Pick: Under

A lot is at stake in this one, with both managers likely going to use all their best relievers, if necessary. The under is 13-5-1 in the Brewers last 19 road games vs. a left-handed starter and they face southpaw Jamie Garcia. The under is 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 home starts vs. Brewers and the under is 14-3-4 in the last 21 meetings in St. Louis between these teams. Play the Brewers/Cardinals Under the total in Game 5.

Safestwagering

Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartans
Play: Hawaii Warriors -5.5

I've been researching these teams way too long. Initially it seems like the Spartans are the play. Big money is starting to move in their direction, and The Warriors are typically a poor road team. Hawaii was crushed by UNLV, who is arguably one of the worst major programs in the country this year. But...... The Spartans are hurting at running back, and on defense, while some of Hawaii's questionable players should be on the field tonight. We need to address The Warriors game against the "Runnin' Rebels" A duplication of that performance will result in a loss for Hawaii. From what I've been told, they were more interested in Vegas night life than they should have been, and also had 2 weeks of long traveling. Last week on the road, they were very impressive against a pretty good Louisiana Tech team. In addition, San Jose State's special teams have not played well, and their coach is too laid back for me.

David Banks

Hawaii / San Jose State Under

ESPN’s Friday night college football telecast takes us to San Jose, CA where the Spartans (2-4, 4-2 ATS) will host the WAC rival Hawaii Warriors (3-2, 3-2 ATS) in their homecoming game; kick-off from Spartan Stadium is set for 9:00 ET on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

Coach Greg McMackin’s Warriors head back to the Mainland for a Week 7 battle with the Spartans looking to secure back-to-back wins and covers as visitors. Last we saw Hawaii, it took the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs out behind the woodshed in their own house en route to winning outright as 4.5-point underdogs. The win was their first in conference play, and they currently sit in a three-way tie atop the WAC standings along with Nevada and Fresno State. Hawaii ranks favorably on both sides of the ball: the offense, led by senior QB Bryant Moniz, checks in as the 8th most potent passing attack in the country that’s averaged 343.4 YPG. Defensively, the Warriors have shut down opposing ground games to the tune of just 93.2 YPG; good for the 17th best overall mark.

San Jose State might only own a pair of wins in six overall tries to date, but Coach Mike Macintyre’s kids fight to the bitter end evidenced by the squad’s 4-2 ATS ledger. It along with the rest of Stanford’s opponents have been ripped apart by the Cardinal this season, but the Spartans gave the UCLA Bruins a stiff challenge in the Rose Bowl and just gave BYU a mighty test in its own backyard last week. Wins against New Mexico State and Colorado State were nice, but most impressive might just be the three-point loss it suffered at home against WAC rival Nevada; an overall output that figures to have Sparty up to the task of hanging with the potent Warriors in tonight’s spot.

Hawaii has dominated the recent series with SJ State winning nine of the L/10 overall clashes, but the Spartans managed to split all of those games against the closing spread. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the L/3 head-to-head meetings. The Warriors have been a great bet against conference opposition going a lucrative 9-1 ATS versus their L/10 foes, but have struggled under the Friday night lights covering on just three of the L/10 occasions. The Spartans have struggled against WAC opponents going 5-18 ATS their L/23 battles, but they’ve covered each of their L/4 as underdogs.

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee +116 over ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals were hot but after scoring four times in the first inning and not scoring again on Wednesday, followed by two lousy runs on Randy Wolf last night, those bats picked a bad time to cool off. That was a huge win for the Brewers last night. They were a mentally beaten down team that dug down deep and found a way to win. They now have a chance to put these Cardinals to bed and go home 3-2. The best news is that a well-rested Zack Greinke gets the call. It’s been said that Greinke does not throw the same pitch twice in a game. He has the best repertoire in the league. When he’s on he’s as elite as Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw. His 3.83 ERA on the year and 4.70 ERA on the road is a complete mirage. Can you name a pitcher with a larger ERA/xERA differential than Greinke? Greinke has fallen victim to a dramatically inflated hit % and deflated strand %. Greinke's xERA of 2.70 tells us that his skills are as elite as ever and this guy is as worthy as taking back a tag as any pitcher in the game. Jaime Garcia has not gotten stronger as the season has gone along. Interestingly, Garcia's skills also show in-game erosion. He is fantastic the first time through lineups but things go downhill from there. The Brewers have seen plenty of him too with a combined 147 career AB’s against him. Milwaukee beat him up pretty badly in game one. For the first time in this series the pressure shifts to the Cardinals and momentum shifts to the visitor. Play: Milwaukee +116 (Risking 2 units).

Calgary –6 -117 over TORONTO

Which edition of the Stamps are we going to see tonight? Will we see the one that can wreak havoc on the opposition or the disinterested one that can lose to anyone and get clobbered in the process? One thing we know for sure is that the season is winding down and the Stamps need to get right-sided in a hurry. They’ve dropped three of their past four games with only win over that span coming against a lifeless Riders club. What we also know is that the Argonauts went into Calgary on July 1 and beat the Stamps by two points. That’s the same Boatmen that have three wins on the year. Is losing to the worst team twice in the same year an option? We think not. Calgary has to come in here and play their hearts out for four quarters. The Stamps, Eskies and Lions are all tied for first in the West with four games left. Home field advantage in the playoffs is at stake and this is the week the Stamps have the upper hand and they just have to take advantage. The Argos have been outgained over the past two weeks by 232 yards and 134 yards respectively. Offensively, Toronto is in a class by themselves and it’s not for the good. All things being equal, the Argonauts cannot compete with these intruders and if the Stamps have any fire or heart they’ll bury this host. Play: Calgary –6 –117 (Risking 2.34 units to win 2).

Passing NHL

David Chan

San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: San Jose Sharks

I bet value where I see it and expect the Sharks to take a bite out of the Ducks tonight.

San Jose is coming off a convincing 6-3 win on Saturday over the Coyotes; backup Thomas Greiss will likely make the start again tonight because of the injured Antti Niemi; Greiss had 26-saves in the victory:

“The team played very well from the get-go so that took the pressure a little bit off me,” Greiss said.

“Everybody played well, everybody skated well,” captain Joe Thornton said. “The lines worked out well. Everyone is still learning each other so we can still get better. But it was a good game.”

The Ducks went 1-1 in Europe, and coach Randy Carlyle suspects his team could still have a tough time with the adjustment from hopping back and forth across the pond:

“This recovery from Europe isn’t just a one-day or a two-day event when you travel the number of hours we did and the difference in time change,” Carlyle said. “There’s some nights now where they’re … having trouble getting to sleep.”

Anaheim has struggled offensively so far this year, mustering just two goals over its first two contests and is 0 for 11 on the power play:

“Our power play right now is the one thing that’s not clicking the way it should,” defenseman Cam Fowler said. “I think it’s just getting that chemistry back to where we left off last season. If all five guys aren’t on the same page, that’s when things can get a little rough out there.”

I'm laying the price on what I feel is a more cohesive team on both ends of the ice at the moment; consider a play on the San Jose Sharks!

MLB Predictions

St Louis Cardinals -123

Things are tied up at 2 after a Brewers win last night, but I have the Cardinals going up 3-2 heading back to Milwaukee where things will no doubt get interesting. The Brewers have Zack Grienke on the mound tonight, while the Cardinals counter with Jaime Garcia. Grienke is 1-0 in 2 starts this postseason but has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits in his 11 innings of work. Garcia is 0-2 allowing 9 earned runs on 12 hits in 11 innings of work. Take note that the Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games, and just 1-4 in Grienke's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 home games, 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss, and 20-6 in their last 26 vs a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 11-5 in Garcia's last 16 home starts, 18-5 in his last 23 starts vs a team with a winning record, and 10-1 in his last 11 home starts vs a team with a winning record. St Louis has had the Brewers number as of late despite the 2-2 start to the NLCS, winning 8 of their last 11 meetings overall. Both pitchers have had their struggles in the postseason, but I see Garcia settling down here at home in a non-elimination game. The Cardinals bounce back well from a loss, and I can't see them dropping a second straight home game to the Brewers. A little bit of value on St Louis tonight, and we will make it a 1 unit pick.

Steve Janus

Brewers/Cardinals UNDER 7.5

The UNDER has been an extremely strong play when the Brewers and Cardinals face off in St. Louis. The total has either tied or went under the mark in 10 of the last 11 games that have been played at Busch Stadium. St Louis will start Jaime Garcia against Zach Grienke. You have to ignore the 15 runs these two teams combined for in game 1.

Garcia has been dominant at home this season with a 2.63 ERA and 1.113 WHIP. His 7.80 ERA in his last three starts is so high because of two awful road starts. He pitched at home against the Phillies in the first round and allowed just 3 runs in seven innings. He has two home starts against the Brewers over the last two years. In those two games he has allowed just 1 ER in 15 innings of work, including a complete game shutout back on May 6.

Greinke doesn't have a great road ERA and has not pitched all that great of late with a 6.35 ERA in his has last three. The thing I like here is Greinke has pitched extremely well in Busch Stadium. In his two career starts at St Louis, he has allowed just 3 ER in 14 innings. Both of those games didn't see the total reach more than 5 runs.

The UNDER is 8-2-4 in Brewers last 14 road games, 13-5-1 in Brewers last 19 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and 8-0-1 in Cardinals last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. BET THE UNDER 7.5!

West Capper

Brewers at Cardinals

Yesterday’s win was huge for the Brewers, because it guarantees the series will go back to Milwaukee, where the Brewers had the best home record in baseball this season. Tonight’s game plays a large role in determining who wins the series, as the winner of game 5 in a 2-2 series has won the series 10 out of 13 times.

Zack Greinke takes the hill for the Brewers, and the key for him tonight is to get through the first 3-4 innings and build some confidence (which he is known to lack sometimes). If he struggles early, this could be a short night for the Brewers. Greinke has some of the best pure stuff in all of baseball. He struck out 9+ hitters in a dozen games this season, tied for most in baseball with Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw. Outside of Justin Verlander, Greinke has the best pure stuff of any pitcher left in the postseason.

While he had a 2.59 ERA after the all-star break (he started slow after missing much of April with an injury), Greinke has really struggled on the road. Greinke went 5-6 on the road with a 4.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (compared to 11-0, 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP at home). He also struck out less hitters and walked more hitters per nine innings on the road. However, two of Greinke’s road wins came in his only two starts in St. Louis this season, both quality starts. While Greinke has struggled mightily on the road, he is capable of throwing seven shutout innings and handing it off to K-Rod and Axford to close it out. Despite facing Greinke a lot this season, Holliday is the only regular with outstanding numbers, as he is 5-for-12 with 2 HR against the right hander.

Jamie Garcia also had much better home splits than on the road, as he was 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. Opponents hit almost a full .100 less against him at home. Last game he was hit hard by the Brewers, and he really struggled to throw effectively inside in that game. None of the Cardinals starters have gone 7 innings yet this postseason, and many of the Brewers have below average numbers against Garcia (Braun is 5-for-22, 1 HR; Fielder is 6-for-21, 0 HR; Harriston is 2-for-11). Corey Hart should be back in the lineup tonight and he is hitting .400 against Garcia in his career.

The Brewers have been very conscience to pitch Greinke at home, yet his ERA is over 8.00 this postseason. With Lance Berkman expected back in the lineup tonight, this is as close of a matchup as it gets this postseason. With Greinke, it’s all about being comfortable on the mound, and the good news for Brewers fans is he has pitched well at Busch Stadium in his career, only giving up 4 runs in 15 innings.

I also think the warning issued by the umpires in game one really effected Greinke and Garcia negatively, because essentially neither pitcher were able to aggressively pitch inside the rest of the game. That changes tonight, and both pitchers need to establish the inside of the zone to be successful.

A lot has been made of the postseason struggles for both of these pitchers and how the public saw these pitchers throw in game one and get hit around to a 9-6 final. Because of Greinke’s struggles on the road and the Brewers woeful road record this season, I like the Cardinals to sneak this one out and go to Milwaukee with a 3-2 lead. Very small plays here, because this is as close as it gets. I was hoping to see a total more around 8 runs, but I see 7.5 listed at most shops. Take the Cardinals (-120) for 1* unit and the under 7.5 runs for 1* unit. Please keep in mind both of these plays are as small as they get, as both came VERY CLOSE to being no action and passing on them.

Rob Vinciletti

Sharks vs. Ducks
Play: Over 5½

The Sharks have gone over in 16 of 23 off a win of 3 or more goals and 13 of 20 with 3 or more days rest. The Ducks and Sharks have scored seven and eight goals the last two here. Look for another high scoring game as this one goes over the total.