Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 15,2010

Wunderdog Sports

Cincinnati U vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville +2.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats were ranked to start the season, but have played nothing like a ranked team. It's obviously they were vastly overrated coming into the season. They beat up on Indiana State (missing the cover as a 45-point favorite). The Bearcats also delivered a blowout to Miami, Ohio. But they could not find the win column in their other three games. Louisville has been better than advertised this season. They lost the two games they were supposed to lose, but were in both of them. They went on the road vs. Oregon State as a three touchdown underdog but lost by just 7 points. They outgained the Beavers in that game by 134 yards, done in by a -2 turnover margin. They have great balance with Adam Froman throwing for 1,177 yards at 8.5 yards per pass, and running behind Bilal Powell who already has churned out 689 yards at 7.6 yards a carry and 7 TDs. The Bearcats haven't been covering much of anything of late at just 2-8 ATS in their last 10. The Cards’ success running the ball has bred even more success as they are 23-10 ATS after running for over 200 yards in their last game. Cincinnati is 0-2 SU and ATS on the road and they are facing a Louisville team that has shown they can play. I like the home dog here.

BEN BURNS

Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Toronto Argonauts
PICK: Toronto Argonauts +1.5

I cashed a big ticket on Hamilton the last time that these teams met, back on Labor Day. Laying -4 points, the Ticats won by 15. That was at Hamilton though. This week's game is at Toronto, yet the Ticats are still favored. While I respect Hamilton, I feel that provides us with solid value on the revenge-minded home underdog.

Note that the Ticats also won (16-12) here at Toronto, back in August. The Argos were laying a field goal for that game. Now, they're slight underdogs, which again goes back to the point about line value.

Note that the Ticats are 0-2 SU/ATS the last two times that they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. During that stretch, the Argos are 2-0 SU/ATS when listed as home underdogs of three or less.

The Ticats beat up on Edmonton last time out. That 36-11 victory was pretty convincing - although the Ticats were beaten by the same team at Edmonton the previous week. The Argos are arguably off an even more impressive victory though, as they won on the road, at Saskatchewan, against a better team.

With the O/U line currently listed at 49.5, note that the Argos are a profitable 25-13 ATS the last 38 times that they played a home game where the line ranged between 49.5 and 52. Consider Toronto

Jim Feist

Colorado Avalanche vs. New Jersey Devils
Take: Colorado Avalanche

Colorado isn't getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers, a 2-1 record despite being an underdog all three games. The Avalanche won a 5-4 thriller at Detroit that saw Colorado overcome three deficits. The Avs out-shot the still star- studded Wings 38-28. New Jersey (1-3) is favored but hasn't been scoring, averaging 7 goals in 4 games. Play Colorado.

EZWINNERS

Texas Rangers +135

The Texas Rangers have lost nine straight postseason games against the New York Yankees but I expect that streak to end in this game. These two teams split eight games this season and home field proved to be the key to this match up. The Yankees swept three games at home against the Rangers, while the Rangers went 4-1 in their five home meetings with the Yankees. CJ Wilson gets the start for the Rangers and Wilson pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings in his one start against the Rays and has held left handed batters to a .144 batting average this season. The Yankees made quick work of the Twins which is not necessarily a good thing for CC Sabathia who does not always pitch his best when pitching with extra rest. I like the Rangers to take this one at home, play on Texas.

Bobby Maxwell

N.Y. Yankees at TEXAS (+135)

I’ll go ahead and grab the plus-money with the home team in this one as I’m looking for Rangers’ lefty C.J. Wilson (16-8, 3.25 ERA) to pitch well and outduel Yankees’ lefty C.C. Sabathia (22-7, 3.21 ERA).

Wilson was very good in Game 2 of the ALDS in Tampa Bay, allowing just two hits in 6.1 innings of scoreless work. He struck out seven and walked just two in the 6-0 victory. In his last home start, he gave up two runs over five innings of a 6-2 win over the Angels. He’s already seen the Yankees three times this season, including two at home with the Rangers winning both.

Wilson went 11-3 in front of the home fans this season and with him on the hill, the Rangers are on streaks of 6-0 against A.L. East teams, 15-3 when he goes at home, 25-7 overall, 6-2 in series openers and 8-0 at home against winning teams.

As a team, the Rangers are on streaks of 10-3 against winning teams, 8-2 against A.L. East teams and 6-0 against left-handers. The Yankees are just 1-5 on the road against left-handers and 2-7 on Fridays, plus just 2-9 overall against southpaws.

The Rangers have won four of the last five against the Yankees in Texas, but a win in this opener would go a long way to showing this team that it can take down the Bronx Bombers. They’ve heard all week about how they aren’t able to take down the Yankees, and how they’ve been a playoff disaster. But this series will start well for them as Wilson has been nails down the stretch and he’ll deliver a good quality outing here.

The Yankees don’t hit lefties well and they are getting a good one today in Wilson. So grab the plus-money and play the Rangers here tonight!

2♦ TEXAS

Craig Davis

NY Yankees at TEXAS

Tonight's free play is on the Yankees/Rangers OVER the total. It's amazing how pitching matchups really change these totals in Vegas. Just two nights ago the Rangers/Rays total was 6 1/2 with Cliff Lee and David Price on the hill. Now tonight with CJ Wilson and CC Sabathia getting the start, the total is a full two runs higher.

Are we to believe these two pitchers are that much worse than Price and Lee? Shoot, Sabathia might be the Cy Young Award Winner in the American League... so either Vegas expects the Yankees to pound the crap out of Wilson or they jacked up the total and are hoping everyone takes the under.

I'm not buying it.

After watching CC Sabathia pitch in Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Minnesota, I have no doubts he can be hit by this Rangers offense. They did a heck of a job against David Price and James Shields in Games 1, 2, and 5 and I think they'll be able to hold their own against Sabathia at home tonight.

As for the Yankees, do you really think CJ Wilson is going to be able to deliver an 8-inning masterpiece? Wilson has never beaten the Yankees in his career and is ERA against the Bronx Bombers in his last outing was a paltry 12.00. New York is well-rested and ready to take care of business as usual. This game goes over the total by the 7th inning.

2♦ OVER

Insider angles

Cincinnati vs. Louisville

The Cincinnati Bearcats and the Louisville Cardinals both seem to have improved from the beginning of the season and come into this Big East opener with good momentum after blowout win over a couple of cupcakes last week, but the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule overall and they have a significantly better run defense, so Cincinnati gets the road call here.

The Cats did virtually whatever they wanted in a 45-3 win over Miami Ohio last week, accumulating a whopping 609 total yards while allowing only 269! They gained 384 yards on the ground, led by Isaiah Pead’s 197 yards on only 10 carries, while quarterback Zach Collaros was extremely efficient, completing 14 of 17 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns.

Collaros has improved and matured as the season has gone on, and he now has nearly 1200 passing yards while completing 63.2 percent of his passes on a very good 8.2 yards per attempt. The most striking statistic regarding Collaros though is that he has 12 touchdown passes vs. one interception, and he ahs done that despite taking shots downfield and not being conservative, as indicated by his YPA.

Granted, Miami Ohio is capable of making any team look like Boise State, but keep in mind that the Bearcats only lost by two points to Oklahoma earlier on, and they also had a couple of tough non-conference road tests at NC State and Fresno State.

Conversely, Louisville has gone 3-2 vs. a schedule that has included the likes of Eastern Kentucky, Memphis and Arkansas State, They destroyed Memphis 56-0 last week, but that is a 1-5 Tiger team that has allowed at least 48 points in four of its six games so far. The toughest game for the Cardinals to this point was at Oregon State, but as usual, the Pac-10 is overrated again, so we do not feel the Cards are as battle-tested as of now as the Bearcats are.

Looking at the raw statistics, these teams are very close in every category except one, and it is a critical one in rushing defense. Cincinnati is allowing only 84.8 rushing yards per game in a miniscule 2.6 yards per carry, which is crucial here because after having so many nice quarterbacks over the years, Louisville has transitioned to a run oriented offense this year. Conversely, the Cardinals are allowing 147.6 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry.

We feel that Cincinnati has proven enough vs. a very good schedule that they can handle going on the road and winning handily over a Louisville team that will probably be in the lower echelon of the Big East this year.

Pick: Cincinnati -3

PLAYBOOK

Cincinnati over LOUISVILLE by 1

Big East commissioner John Marinatto is no dummy. Rather than deal with a strong network schedule during the week, the month of October finds his conference featured on Fridays when it’s up against the likes of Medium and Smallville. Last week, Rutgers and UConn provided an entertaining 27-24 contest and this week’s conference opener for both Cincinnati and Louisville just may do the same. The Cardinals’ well-balanced ‘double- deuce’ offense (averaging over 200 yard both on the ground and through the air) has accounted for 90 points in their last two games and that bodes nicely for a Louisville squad that is 5-1 ATS as home dogs off back-to-back SU wins. Not to be outdone, the Bearcats are a profitable 10-2-1 ATS in the regular season versus a foe off back-to-back SU wins. And while the ‘Cats offense came alive in last week’s 45-3 rout of Miami Ohio, this team is all home and no road under HC Butch Jones as the visitor is 0-4 ATS in Cincinnati games this season. With Friday finally here, we’re certain that Charlie Strong’s offense isn’t the only thing tonight that’ll have you seeing double – just one, however, that won’t cost you any money.

NELLY'S

Cincinnati (-2.5) LOUISVILLE

While Louisville is the team with the winning record in this match-up the Cardinals have a lot to prove. The promising start has not featured quality opposition and the excellent statistics from Louisville were padded last week in a 56-0 win over Memphis. While the Cardinals were competitive they did lose both games against major conference competition, it should be noted that close losses to Oregon State and Kentucky are commendable for a team that has had back-to-back losing seasons. The return of a running game for Louisville, averaging 218 yards per game after just 125 per game last season has been very encouraging. Cincinnati is 2-3 but the schedule has been challenging. The Bearcats are a difficult team to rush against, allowing just 2.6 yards per carry so the Cardinals might be forced into passing more than desired. Last season Cincinnati won 41-10 but the gap has closed considerably between these teams although the Bearcats should be able to pull away for a solid victory on the road. CINCINNATI BY 10

GOLDSHEET

*Cincinnati 31 - LOUISVILLE 22

Respected rookie HC Charlie Strong (former Florida d.c.) making rapid progress at Louisville. Late-blooming sr. RB Powell (689 YR on 7.6 ypc, 8 TDs) has been a revelation on offense, while depth-shy defense (allowing only 329 ypg) mostly holding its own under the fiery new mentor. Still, slightly prefer cross-river rival Cincy now that jr. RB Pead (366 YR in last two games!) healthy and helping confident jr. QB Collaros (12 TDP, 1 int.) balance Bearcat attack.

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +1.46 over NEW JERSEY

The Devils are a bit of a mess to start the season with a slew of lineup changes, injuries and call-ups. D-man Mark Fraser is now out and he joins defenseman Anton Volchenkov and other three d-men on the rack. The Devils have one win thus far and that came in its last game, a 1-0 victory over the Sabres. Buffalo was extremely flat in that contest. The Devils will have to go to a bunch of rookies behind the blue line and Martin Brodeur can no longer be counted on to bail this team out. The Av’s picked up right where they left off last season. They work diligently and they keep on coming. They already have wins over Chicago and in Detroit with its only loss coming in Philly. Craig Anderson is also picking up where he left off and is proving he was no one-year wonder. The Avalanche defense is its biggest flaw but they make up for it by playing hard and every forward chips in with relentless back-checking. This Colorado squad was a tough out last season and they look to be even a tougher out this year. We get some very sweet value here on a team that is more than capable of beating this vulnerable and overpriced host. Play: Colorado +1.46 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +1.21 over ANAHEIM

It is highly recommended that you lay off the Ducks when they’re favored until they make some serious improvements on defense. The Ducks got its first win of the year in its last game when they edged the Canucks 4-3. That’s nice but they were outplayed for the fourth straight game, as they continue to give up tons of scoring chances. The Ducks are in big trouble when playing in their own end, as they can’t move the puck out cleanly. They’ve been outshot by counts of 43-21, 49-37, 53-14 and 39-32. Fortunately for them they have a solid goaltender in Jonas Hiller and he’s the only reason they have one win in four games. The Ducks are the riskiest favorite in the league right now. The Thrashers come in with one win in three games but they’ve played Washington, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles and they beat the Caps. Those are three very good teams and they get its easiest assignment of the year now. Atlanta rolls out three very strong lines and they’re also strong defensively. The Ducks are tremendously vulnerable against a hard-working squad and that’s precisely what they’re going to run into here. Once again, there’s strong value taking back a tag against this putrid defensive Ducks club. Play: Atlanta +1.21 (Risking 2 units).

Tom Freese

Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: Los Angeles Kings

It looks like the Los Angeles Kings have a keeper in goal in Jonathan Quick. Los Angeles is 2-1 this year with wins over Atlanta and Vancouver. The Kings are 4-1 their last 5 games as hometes of -110 to -150. Los Angeles is 13-6 their last 19 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their last game. The Canucks are 1-2 this year. Goalie Roberto Luongo is not the same goalie we have seen the last several years. Vancouver is 4-9 their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Canucks are 1-6 their last 7 Conference games.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Cincinnati at Louisville

Last night's total on Kansas State at Kansas Over was cashed by the third quarter. Kansas State went over by themselves and tonight's Total is going the opposite way. We are taking Cincinnati vs. Louisville UNDER! Both teams are coming of huge blowout wins by at least 40 points. Cincinnati is 14-5 Under when the line is +3 to -3 and 11-3 Under after leading by 17 points at half in their previous game. Cincinnati and Louisville are 3-1 Under in their last four matchups and in the game that did go over back in 2008, the total was at 47 and the game ended at 48. Play on the Under!

Play on: The Under

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +1½ over Hamilton

The Argos are coming off a huge win and unlikely win in Saskatchewan and that might have some believing this is a letdown spot. It’s also worth nothing that the TiCats have beaten the Argos twice already this season in two tries and have the blueprint for beating them. However, that win last week instills confidence and it’s just so difficult for one team to beat the other three times in the same season. Cleo Lemon has to step up his game for this one because Hamilton has been able to stop the running of Cory Boyd. If the Argos turn to Boyd again they’ll very likely suffer the same fate as the first two games. It’s not rocket science. You can’t keep doing the same thing and expect different results. So, expect the Argos to change it up here against what might be a complacent Tigercat squad. Play: Toronto +1½ (No bets).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Yankees/Rangers OVER 8

The Rangers play in a great hitter's park. With the power that both of these teams pack, I expect Game 1 to fly over this number. 3 of the last 4 meeting between these two clubs have seen at least 11 runs scored. In 24 games between these clubs over the last 3 seasons, we have seen an average of 10 runs scored per game. Sabathia and Wilson are both quality starters, but each has a career ERA of 4.29 or higher in this matchup. The Over is 5-0 in the Yankees' last 5 during game 1 of a series, 6-1-1 in their last 8 playoff road games, 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter and 10-3 in Sabathia's last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Over is 9-4-2 in the Rangers' last 15 home games and 3-1-1 in Wilson's last 5 home starts. We'll take the Over tonight.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Cincinnati/Louisville UNDER 56.5

The Key: Plays Under on any team off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, in October games, are an impressive 100-45 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 48.9 points scored in this time-tested situation. In addition, plays Under on any team after shutting out their last opponent, if that team is up against an opponent that scored 24 points or more in the first half of its last game, are 30-8 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing 43.8 points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.