Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 17

Marc Lawrence

Temple vs. Houston
Play: Temple +7

Edges - Owls: 3-0 SUATS last three as road dogs. Cougars: 5-11 ATS as home favorites versus opponent with revenge off a win; and 2-6 ATS as home favorites off a SU dog win. With the Owls looking to avenge a 22-12 loss in head coach Matt Rhule’s home opening debut last season and Houston off an upset win at Memphis in which there were outstatted, we recommend a 1-unit play on Temple.

Joe Gavazzi

Boise St. -17

Each of these teams has played to form this season with the favorite being a combined 10-2 ATS in their games. No surprise if that plays out again today in a series that has seen Boise win, and cover, 7 of the last 8. The 51 point offensive output by Boise in their win over Nevada implies they are at last beginning to assimilate the offensive philosophies of HC Harsin, a former Boise St. Asst. This underrated coach is on an 8-3 ATS run, dating to his tenure at Arkansas St. last season. The Boise offense should continue to roll against a Fresno defense, who is a Defensive Dud (see this week's article). Already this season, Fresno has been blown out in their step-up games, losing by 39 at USC, 32 at Utah, and 36 at Nebraska, allowing 55 PPG in the process. The downward pointspread spiral for the Bulldogs continues, as since the start of the 2013 season, Fresno is 7-12 ATS. Extra rest for Boise is a major plus against a Fresno team, who lost last week to bottom feeding UNLV by a count of 30-27.

Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks
Play: Anaheim Ducks -145

Anaheim is one of the better teams out West and they are 12-1 since last season if they were on the road and favored in their last game. The Ducks are a solid 29-9 if they allowed 4 or more goals in their last game. Tonight they take on a Minnesota team that is off back to back to back shutout wins and has lost 5 of the last 6 to Anaheim. With the Ducks 10-4 at home off 2+ road games we will take Anaheim here tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Toronto Raptors

Toronto is rested and has had a fine preseason at 4-1. Louis Williams made a 3-pointer with 0.6 seconds left to give the Toronto Raptors a 92-89 victory over the Boston Celtics in an exhibition game Wednesday night. Jordan Hamilton led the Raptors with 16 points, Williams added 15, and Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson each had 12. Teams don't always play defense in preseason but Toronto does, holding Boston to 41% shooting and the Knicks to 38% shooting the previous game, an 81-76 win -- and both those victories were on the road. Oklahoma City is in a tough situational spot, shorthanded without Kevin Durant and playing the second of a back to back spot after going to New Orleans last night.

Jesse Schule

Calgary vs. Columbus
Pick: Under

The Flames were one of the worst teams in the NHL last season, only the Oilers had fewer points in the Western Conference. You would think that losing their leading scorer in the off-season would have hurt the Flames, but so far they are off to a good start. Calgary is coming off a shocking upset victory on the road over Chicago, winning by a score of 2-1 in overtime.

Before you get too excited about the Flames as an underdog, I should mention that they were out-shot 50-18 in the win over the Hawks. Jonas Hiller stopped all but one of those 50 shots, earning his first victory of the season. Calgary has won 3-of-4 on this current road trip, and each of the last three have failed to reach the total.

Columbus suffered it's first loss of the season at home, losing 4-2 to Dallas. They will be eager to get back on track at home tonight against a Flames team in the midst of a long road trip. The Jackets will hope to continue their success on he penalty kill, as they have yet to concede a power play goal.

With neither of these teams having much in the way of elite scoring talent, it's not surprising that 15 of the last 22 meetings in Columbus have failed to reach the total.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Houston Cougars -7

The Cougars are coming off an impressive come-from-behind 28-24 win at Memphis. Houston didn’t take their first lead in the game until early in the 4th quarter. It was a big bounce back performance after their heartbreaking 12-17 loss at home to UCF the previous week. This will be the Cougars’ third home game in a nationally televised weekday game and they are certainly going to be motivated after dropping the first two.

One of the promising things that came from their win over the Tigers, was the play they got out of sophomore quarterback Greg Ward, who took over after returning starter John O’Korn was benched. Ward completed 17 of 28 attempts for 188 yards and ran for another 95 yards and a score. I believe Houston has a renewed confidence offensively with Ward under center and I look for them to take advantage of an overrated Temple defense.

The Owls come into this game ranked 22nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 326.6 ypg. However, that’s largely due to Temple playing some of the worst offenses in the country. Temple gave up 517 yards in a 24-31 loss to Navy and just this past week allowed 438 yards to Tulsa.

Not only do the Owls figure to be in trouble defensively, but I think their offense could find it difficult to keep pace against a stingy Houston defense. While Temple is 24th in scoring at 38.2 ppg, they are just 96th in total offense (373.4 ypg). They have benefited greatly from their defense forcing 17 turnovers in their first five games, which is correlated to the awful offenses they have played.

The Cougars are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 home games after a SU win.There’s also a strong system in play telling us to back Houston. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a conference road win against an opponent off 2 straight conference wins are just 49-19 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 72% system in favor of the Cougars.

Jack Jones

Fresno State +17

The Fresno State Bulldogs caught themselves looking ahead to this game against Boise State and were unable to take care of UNLV on the road last week. That result has left them undervalued heading into this one as the public perception on them is way down off that overtime loss. I’m not going to be quick to dismiss this team like the rest of the betting public is.

The same thing happened after they lost three straight games in blowout fashion to elite teams in Utah, USC and Nebraska to open the season. The Bulldogs came back to go a perfect 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS over their next three games with double-digit victories over Southern Utah, New Mexico and San Diego State. Look for them to bounce back and cover this lofty 17-point spread Friday as well.

Boise State has clearly taken a step back this season. It has only won one game by more than 17 points this year, which was a 34-9 triumph against a terrible Louisiana-Lafayette bunch. The last two games for the Broncos show that they are extremely vulnerable. They lost at Air Force 14-28 despite being a 13-point favorite in that contest. They barely survived Nevada last week in a 51-46 road victory.

Fresno State boasts a very good offense fully capable of putting up enough points to stay within this 17-point spread. It is averaging 28.7 points and 441.4 yards per game on the season. It has been much more effective since the tough start to the season against a brutal opening three-game schedule.

After being a punching bag for the Broncos for years, the Bulldogs have punched back the last two years. They only lost 10-20 at Boise State in 2012, and then put an end to a seven-game losing streak in this series with a thrilling 41-40 home victory last season. This 2014 Fresno State squad is more than capable of giving Boise State a run for its money again this year.

Fresno State is 15-6 ATS when playing with six or less days rest over the last three seasons. The Bulldogs are 11-3 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last three years. The Broncos are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Steve Janus

Boise State -17

This may seem like a lot of points for the Broncos to be laying against the defending MWC Champs, but Fresno State is way down this year. They come in averaging just 28.7 ppg after putting up 43.4 ppg in 2013. The Bulldogs were expected to win with a defense that returned 8 starters, but that's not been the case. Fresno State has got worse. They are giving up 35.6 ppg after allowing 30.3 ppg last year. What really tells the story for me is last week's loss to UNLV, who came into that game 1-5 with all 5 losses by at least 14 points and their only win coming versus FCS foe Northern Colorado. Boise State has too much fire-power offensively and are strong enough defensively to keep this game from being competitive. Not to mention the Broncos are nearly unbeatable at home (63-3 L69) and will be playing with revenge after last year's 40-41 loss at Fresno State.

System - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who are 4-1 SU over their L5 and have won 60% to 80% of their games on the season, are 46-20 (70%) ATS since 1992 against marginal losing teams that have won 40% to 49% of their games.

LT Profits

Temple vs Houston
Pick: Houston -7.5

The Temple Owls are 4-1, but do not read too much to that as they have faced a schedule ranked 176th across all of FBS and FCS in SOS according to the Sagarin Ratings, and remember that there are only 128 FBS schools! They have faced just one team ranked in the Sagarin Top 100, and that was the one game they lost to Navy. And despite that extremely weak schedule, the Owls still rank just 97th in the country in total offense. Conversely, the Houston Cougars are 3-3 but that includes a covering seven-point loss at BYU before that school lost Taysom Hill, a five-point loss to defending AAC Champion UCF and most recently a road win at Memphis last week. All three of those teams are ranked considerably higher than any team that Temple has beaten. Houston is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following an ATS win.

SPORTS WAGERS

Edmonton -4 over SASKATCHEWAN

We’re not going to go into an entire analysis of this game because it’s not necessary. Although this game goes on Sunday, we wanted to post this game on Friday because we have early information that Kerry Joseph will start for the Roughriders. That’s not privileged information and it’ll be public very soon if it’s not already but by Sunday, we can see this line moving up at least or point or two. The Riders have spun completely out of control since they lost Darian Durant to an injury. Saskatchewan has been outgained by 151 yards, 205 yards, 249 yards and 137 yards in four of its past six games. They were even outgained by Ottawa by 60 yards in one of the other games over that span. Kerry Joseph retired at the end of last year after appearing in one game for the Eskimos. Saskatchewan pleaded with him to come out of retirement because the two QB’s that they have employed after Durant look like they should be playing for the Western Mustangs. Joseph is not an upgrade. Yeah, he has experience but he’s been on the rack for almost two years, he’s 41 years old and how embarrassing would it be for the Eskies to allow him to come in and here and have a good game?

Edmonton barely broke a sweat last week in their 41-9 victory over Winnipeg. That was against Winnipeg’s backup QB and the Eskies get an even bigger break this week. Here’s the best part though. Saskatchewan is one game ahead of Edmonton in the West for second place. First place gets a bye (Calgary) and second place will play third place in the first round of the playoffs with second place getting home-field advantage. That is huge in the CFL and now this becomes the biggest game of the season for both teams because the winner will all but cement home-field. Motivation is not an issue for the Eskies and if they don’t win this one going away against a 41-year QB that has been twiddling his thumbs for two years, you can color us surprised.

SPORTS WAGERS

Nashville +105 over WINNIPEG

OT included. This is an extremely difficult spot for the Jets, as they open up their home schedule after playing their first three on the road, all on the West Coast in Arizona, San Jose and Los Angeles. Winnipeg won its first game in Arizona, 6-2 but then lost Evander Kane and its next two games by scores of 3-0 and 4-1. There’s a lot to like about Winnipeg, namely that it got rid of some dead weight in the off-season while returning nine of their top 10 scorers from last year. As a dog in certain spots, the Jets should be profitable but as a favorite against teams that are better than they are, there is no value on them whatsoever. Furthermore, Winnipeg’s goaltending woes have not been solved. Al Montoya arguably played much better than Ondrej Pavelec last year but they let him walk into free agency for free. There are 29 goalies that have played over 100 games the last three years and Pavelec was statistically among the worse.

Nashville has a new coach and a new style. Three games in and they are only going to get better as they adjust from a defense first strategy to an aggressive offense. The Preds have played three games and were extremely sharp in two of them, especially against Dallas in a 4-1 victory. The Predators added several offensive players in the off season and they also have seen outstanding play from Filip Forsberg, a highly touted prospect that is everything they said he was and more. Another angle we like is that the Preds have played three games at home and will now take to the road for the first time. Playing well on the road is one of the keys to making the playoffs and that’s something that Peter Laviolette will drive into them. The Preds were not as sharp in their last game against Calgary and that was a “spot” that we pointed out they could be flat in after that Dallas win and with a road trip on deck. They figure to be much sharper and focused here and that should be more than enough to defeat the Jets.

Detroit -½ +165 over TORONTO

3-way line, regulation only. The Maple Leafs have done some nice work in their past two games against the Rangers and Avalanche but the Rangers are pure garbage right now and the Avalanche are playing poorly. That’s not to take anything away from Toronto, as its 3-2 OT win over Colorado was a flattering score for the Avs. Toronto is creating a lot of chances but we still see a defense that is committing too many mistakes in its own end and an offense that relies too heavily on its top line. Shut down the Kessel/Bozak/Van Riemsdyk line and the Maple Leafs chances of winning decrease dramatically.

The Red Wings are 1-2 and have dropped two straight while scoring just six times in their three games. Because of that, the market is undervaluing this squad. Tom Babcock, Detroit’s mastermind Head Coach, figures to have a strong game plan in place to shut down the Leafs top unit while attacking the Leafs weak defense. Detroit has played Boston twice and Anaheim once. They were the better team in two of those three games and now take a significant drop in class when facing the Maple Leafs. Detroit’s wickedly talented offense has not gone off yet for a big game but it’s only a matter of time before they start registering three or four goals a game with regularity. We also like the look of Detroit’s underrated defense, as they continue to move the puck out crisply and effectively. The Red Wings are high on our radar as one of the most undervalued teams in the league right now. This team is on the verge of something good and now is the time to buy low on them because their stock is going to rise quickly when they inevitably start stringing some wins together. This is a home and home series and we’re strongly suggesting that the Red Wings will not lose both games. If they lose here, we’ll come right back on them tomorrow night in Detroit spotting a half puck and taking back some juice. Our position is that the Red Wings will one of these two games in regulation and probably both.

Minnesota +115 over ANAHEIM

OT included. We’ve talked about Dallas changing the landscape of power in the West but you can add the Wild into the discussion as well. Minnesota was knocked out in the second round of the playoffs last year by the powerful Blackhawks but going quietly they did not. They lost the first two in Chicago before tying it up at home with some of the best played hockey by any team all season long. The Wild lost the next two games to lose it in six but they ran into a super-hot Cory Crawford, otherwise they would have advanced. Incidentally, the Wild lost both Game 5 and Game 6 by identical 2-1 scores, the latter in OT. If there is such a thing as a “good” loss, that was it. Minnesota may be the best defensive team in the NHL. They also have several players that can produce offensively and their collection of two-way forwards ranks up there with the Kings as the best in the game. Minnesota has played just two games so they’re a bit under the radar right now. They have defeated Colorado twice and outscored the Avs in a home and home series by a count of 8-0.

The Ducks lost their season opener to Pittsburgh 6-4 but subsequently ran off three consecutive victories to run their record to 3-1. Coming off an outstanding year and having most of those core players returning, Anaheim is still considered to be in the upper tier of the NHL. We’re not so sure about that. In its 3-2 win over Detroit, Anaheim was statistically dominated in time of possession in the opposing end. They were fortunate to win that game. Against Philadelphia, the Ducks were outshot 42-28 but escaped with a 4-3 OT victory. The Ducks other victory occurred against Buffalo. What we’re seeing is a sloppy team for several stretches every game. Keep your eye on that because Bruce Boudreau turned the Capitals into a sloppy team also by the time he was run out of Washington. The Ducks early season success is a direct result of good fortune when in fact they should be 1-3 with their lone victory occurring against Buffalo. We’re big sellers on the Ducks and will put that to the test here.

Larry Ness

Nashville Predators at Winnipeg Jets
Pick: Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg will be playing its first game at home tonight as the Jets begin a five-game home stand against the Predators. Optimism is high for this Jets franchise, despite the fact that they have not made the playoffs since 2006-07, back when they were playing in Atlanta as the Thrashers. This team finished seven points out of the Western Conference playoffs in the first year of head coach Paul Maurice's stewardship. Winnipeg acquired center Martin Perreault in the offseason, who should fit in nicely with a team that returns four forwards who netted at least 20 goals last year.

However, this Jets team will look to rebound from a disappointing 4-1 loss in Los Angeles against the reigning Stanley Cup champions on Sunday. Winnipeg has shown themselves to have the team personality to respond well in situations like this as the Jets have responded by winning EIGHT of their last 11 games after a loss by at least three goals. Nashville has opened its season with a 2-0-1 mark after a 3-2 loss in a shootout to Calgary on Tuesday. However, this will be the first road game of the season for a Predators, a team that also missed the playoffs last season and is still working out its cohesion at forward after adding four new players to the mix.

Will Rogers

Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks
Play: Anaheim Ducks -122

The Minnesota Wild are coming off back-to-back wins in a home and home series with Colorado, and they have yet to concede a goal. That is likely to change tonight, as they're coming to California to take on the Anaheim Ducks. The home team lost their season opener, but are coming off three consecutive wins and I like their chances to make that four in a row tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Ducks Power Play - They have scored four power play goals so far, clicking at a rate of 23.5% with the man-advantage. The Wild have may have yet to concede a goal, never mind a shorthanded one, but that might not last long as they had the league's 28th ranked penalty kill last season.

2. Home Cookin' - The Ducks finished the 2013-2014 season with the third best home record in the league, going 29-8-4 at Honda Center. They've won 17 of the last 25 meetings with the Wild in Anaheim, and six of the last seven meetings overall.

3. X-factor - This will be Anaheim's first home game of the season as they've started with a four game road trip. Their last game in front of their home fans was in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinal where they lost 6-2 to the Kings, and I'm sure they're mighty pumped up for this fixture.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Sam Martin

Temple at Houston
Prediction: Under

While we have a slight lean towards taking the points with visiting Temple in this matchup, we feel the best line value is taking the "Under" here. We expect a defensive battle on Friday night between these two teams, with the Owls being able to instill their slow-paced, defensive type of game style. Owls have only allowed 34 points in their last three games combined and should be able to frustrate Houston's offense.

Temple doesn't really do much offensively, and Houston is vastly underrated on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, the Cougars have yet to allow 250 yards passing all season long and only a healthy BYU team was able to to anything on the ground against them. This game might just be a "race to 21" and we look for both offenses to struggle all night long in a close, low-scoring affair!