Harry Bondi
TEMPLE (+8.5) over Houston
Houston upset of Memphis last week was misleading as the Cougars were the beneficiaries of 5 Memphis turnovers. In that game, Houston benched QB John O'Korn and went with receiver Greg Ward at quarterback. It paid off as he ran for 95 yeards and passed for 168 but with time to prepare we think the #4 ranked Temple defense will be able to contain him. Cougars also have been hit hard with injuries to second leading receiver Daniel Spencer, who blew his knee out in practice this week and on the other side of the ball to cornerback Lee Hightower and senior linebacker Derrick Mathews who suffered season ending injuries in the win at Memphis. Owls have covered thier last six road games and make it seven straight tonight.
Dr Bob
BOISE STATE (-17) 46 Fresno State 22
Fresno State applies to a 51-18-3 ATS situation that plays on road dogs after a loss as a road favorite but I’m still tempted to play Boise State in this game. Fresno’s defense has played a bit better lately but the Bulldogs have allowed 36 points and 471 yards per game at 6.2 yards per play despite facing teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team (adjusted for facing San Diego State with their horrible backup quarterback). Boise State has a better than average offense (488 yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and an accurate quarterback in Grant Hedrick (72.1% completions) that will pick apart a horrible Fresno State secondary that has allowed 8.4 yards per pass play this season. Fresno isn’t likely to continue to give up 15.4 yards per completion but even adjusting for that variance doesn’t affect the bottom line much, as Boise figures to move the ball through the air when the need to. Fresno does have a good run defense (0.4 yprp better than average), so hopefully the Boise State coaching staff will not try to force the run too much – although I still project a decent 5.1 yprp for the Broncos in this game (and close to 10 yards per pass play). Boise should top 40 points in this game as long as they decide to continue to throw the ball when they get a comfortable lead.
Fresno State’s offense is 0.2 yards per play worse than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack) while Boise State’s stop unit is 0.2 yppl better than average, so the Bulldogs aren’t likely to keep up with what their leaky defense allows. My math model gives Boise State a 59.9% chance of covering at -17 points based solely on the math but the 51-18-3 ATS situation that favors Fresno lowers that percentage and is cause to be cautious. However, in this case the line value is much more significant than the situation and I like Boise State minus the points.
Andre Gomes
Los Angeles Clippers -4
This is a back to back spot for Utah and even though they easily beat the Lakers last night, with a lot of young guys in the team, this won't be an easy spot for them. On the other hand, the Clippers are still winless in the preseason and in fact, they haven't played for a while in this preseason. The LA team actually played at Utah earlier in the preseason, in a tough back to back spot for the Clippers. Now the situation is reserved and I believe the LA team will pick up an easy blowout win tonight.
Raptors / Thunder Under 204.5
Even though Russell Westbrook will play tonight, I think the totals line for this game is overvalued. The Thunder is 4-0 Over on this preseason, but this matchup actually points to a relatively low scoring game in here, as both teams have nice frontcourt defenses that should prevent the opponent from scoring easy points down low. I believe this is the preseason game involving Oklahoma City that will finally go under the total posted and so, I'll take the Under in here.
Warriors / Heat Over 204
Golden State's offense has been excellent in this preseason, while Miami's defense has been quite disappointing. The Warriors scored 104 points against Denver last night, even though they played without David Lee the whole game and Stephen Curry & Klay Thompson during the whole second half. I expect Golden State to continue using their diabolic pace tonight against a Heat team that has been poor on defense, but decent on offense during this preseason. I expect a high scoring game and so, I'll take the Over in here.
OC Dooley
Oilers +120
These pair of geogrphic Canadien rivals met last Saturday in an epic contest where Vancouver won a 5-4 overtime thriller. The big news in that game was the fact that Vancouver rallied from 3 different “two goal” deficits which puts Edmonton in major revenge this evening. While Vancouver who has a new coach and goaltender is off to their best start in fifteen years (2-0) they have been off for the better part of a full week. Edmonton (0-3-1) has never began a new campaign with five consecutive losses in franchise HISTORY and they have defeated the Canucks 3 times in the most recent 4 HOME games