Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 18

John Ryan

Central Florida vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville -12

The simulator shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by 14 or more points. Media attention nearly always surrounds Louisville QB Bridegwater and rightfully so. In their win over Rutgers there were 26 NFL scouts from 20 teams in attendance. however, what impresses me most with Louisville is their team oriented defense that ranks best in the nation allowing just 7.3 PPG. Now, that stat may be misleading when you consider the power ratings and competitive schedules of Louisville versus say teams from the SEC, but they are certainly NOT over rated. CF has had an excellent season with a big road win at Penn State and nearly defeated South Carolina at home. Yet, after I review all of the game situations and matchups, I fully expect Louisville to dominate this game from start top finish. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-33 ATS mark for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. Play against road underdogs (UCF) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. Take Louisville.

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Jim Feist

MLB (921) LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS (922) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Take: over the total.

Reason: A pair of strong offensive teams meet in Game 6, with LA 9th in baseball in runs scored, 6th in batting average, while the Cardinals are 3rd in runs, OBP and batting average. The last game the Dodgers hit four solo home runs in a 6-4 victory at Dodger Stadium and star slugger Adrian Gonzalez whacked two home runs. They have ace Clayton Kershaw going, but the over is 6-2-1 in Kershaw's last 9 starts vs. the Cardinals. And the over is 12-5-1 in the Cardinals last 18 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. Play the Dodgers/Cardinals Game 6 over the total.

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LOUISVILLE (-14½) 36 Central Florida 18SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The line on this game has moved from 10½ points to 14½ points and that move was justified based on my math model, which favors Louisville by 14 points. Central Florida is a good team, as the Golden Knights are very good offensively (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and only 0.2 yppl worse than average on defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl). However, Louisville is even better offensively, rating at 1.6 yppl better than average for the season (7.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl) and they’re only slightly worse if WR DeVante Parker doesn’t play against this week. The Cardinals also have a very good defense that’s yielded just 7.3 points and 3.9 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Louisville hasn’t faced an offense as good as UCF’s attack but the Cardinal performed well against better than average offensive teams Ohio, Kentucky, and Rutgers. UCF, meanwhile, performed great in a road win against a good Penn State defense, scoring 34 points on 508 yards at 7.9 yppl, but they struggled last week (24 points on 274 yards at 4.3 yppl) against a good Memphis defense. So, UCF is capable of performing well offensively against a good defensive team but last week’s poor performance keeps that from being a trend. My math model projects a pretty good 329 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Knights in this game but Louisville is projected to compile 451 yards at 7.3 yppl.
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Overall the math favors Louisville by 14 points, so there is no longer any line value, but the Cardinals do apply to a 137-51-6 ATS home momentum situation that is certainly a reason to side with them tonight.

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Central Florida / Louisville Under 53.5FORSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While both of these teams have a reputation for high-flying offenses, the posted totals have been inflated on their games and as a result the two teams have combined to go under in six out of their eight games. With the national spotlight on the game tonight, the total is once again a bit too high. Both defenses have had success against the pass. In fact, Louisville is ranked fifth in the country in pass efficiency defense and UCF has yet to allow a 300-yard passer. In a big game for both teams, look for the coordinators to play this one close to the vest, especially in the early going, leading to a low-scoring game.

Bob Balfe

Cardinals / Dodgers Under 5.5

Two of the best pitchers in the game this year face off tonight. Kershaw is trying to force a game 7 for his Dodgers. There is no margin for error when you take an under this low, but these guys are at the top of their game. I don't know how you can really pick a side play here. This game should be low scoring so lets roll with the Under and just hope the game is 2 hrs long with strikeout after strikeout. Take the Under

SPORTS WAGERS

Phoenix +132 over ANAHEIM

OT included. After losing their opening game to Colorado by a score of 6-1, the Ducks have reeled off five straight wins and that make this one a perfect sell-high opportunity. Anaheim is a decent hockey team but they are not a dominant one that is going to keep winning at this pace. They’ve had the benefit of a rather soft schedule that has seen them defeat Minnesota in OT, Winnipeg, the Rangers, a dead-tired Senators squad and most recently Calgary in a game they were outshot 35-22. The Ducks have also played their last three games at home and have been in Anaheim for eight days now, which is not usually a good thing this early in the year.

Phoenix is shoe-leather tough. They play hard, they play in your face and no team or coach hates to lose more than the Coyotes and Dave Tippett. The ‘Yotes have picked up points in five of their seven games and that includes four straight overall and three straight on the road. The only games they didn’t pick up a point in were back-to-back contests on the road in San Jose and N.Y. Islanders. In a recent game in Carolina in which the Coyotes won 5-3, they were shorthanded nine times in that game, which is equivalent to almost a full period, yet they killed off eight of those and still managed 32 shots in net and five goals. Phoenix's top four defensemen of Keith Yandle, Derek Morris, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Zbynek Michalek are among the best in the league and now this team is scoring goals. Sure Anaheim can win this game but in terms of value, the Coyotes offer up too much to pass up against a team that is not superior to them.

SPORTS WAGERS

EDMONTON +6 over Calgary

The Stampeders are the cream of the crop in the CFL this season with a 12-3 record. Calgary has won three in a row and seven of its past eight games and they’ve also defeated the Eskimos twice this season. However, the Stamps figure to be looking ahead to next week’s showdown with the Riders in a game that will lock up the West for them should they defeat the second place Rough Riders. This is not the right time to be spotting road points with Calgary. The Stampeders goal is to get healthier for next week and the subsequent playoffs and they could easily overlook this highly motivated host.

Edmonton is finished. They are 3-12 and were officially eliminated from post-season with last week’s loss in Saskatchewan. However, you can throw all of that out the window because this is the battle of Alberta and Edmonton will be completely jacked up to show something in this fierce rivalry. Before the season started, this was the ticket that every Edmonton fan wanted and you can be sure they will be out in full force tonight in support of their beloved team. Edmonton will be loose with nothing on the line except pride. They are looking to salvage anything from a lost season and thus, this becomes its Grey Cup game. They’ve played Calgary close in two games prior and this just might be the best situation of them all. The points allow us to take a comfortable position in a game the pooch has a good shot to win outright in.

Jeff Benton

Your Friday freebie is the Dodgers over the Cardinals.

Pitching rematch of Game Two when Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw hooked up against Cardinals rookie Michael Wacha in a 1-0 final in favor of the Redbirds.

I expect another lower-scoring game tonight, but I expect it to be the Dodgers who come out on the right side of the win/loss column.

St. Louis blew a 3-1 series lead last October in the N.L.C.S. to the Giants, and while they have they do have tomorrow night and "ace" Adam Wainwright waiting on deck. Sure, the Cards would like to close it out tonight before the noose gets tighter, but St. Louis has had issues against southpaws down the stretch, and I think they struggle again tonight.

Let's go with L.A. to force game #7 tomorrow night.

2♦ L.A. DODGERS

Craig Davis

My free play winner for Friday night is the Under in Game 6 of the N.L.C.S. between the Dodgers and the Cardinals.

Free play of the day on the Dodgers and Cardinals to finish under the total.

This low number isn't shocking, considering these are two of the most dominance pitchers in the post-season... and with their season on the line I have absolutely no doubt Kershaw will be as good as he can possibly be.

Honestly, I have no idea who's going to win this game SU (though I lean to the Dodgers), but I can't see either offense getting much of a rally going against either of these pitchers.

Wacha actually outpitched Kershaw in Game 2... and the Cardinals won a shootout, 1-0. While I'm not exactly expecting a 1-0 game tonight, I do expect a very low scoring affair.

And if neither starter can go past the 6th or 7th inning, I'm not concerned there either. Have you seen these bullpens? Both teams trust their bullpen as much as any team left in the post-season, and whatever the score is when they enter the game could easily be the final score.

Take the UNDER as your free play of the day.

3♦ L.A. DODGERS-ST. LOUIS UNDER

LT Profits

Central Florida vs Louisville
Pick : Under 53.5

While much has been made of the eighth ranked Louisville Cardinals averaging over 41 points per game and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater’s Heisman campaign, the fact that the Louisville defense has allowed the fewest points in the country at 7.3 per game and ranks second in total defense has receiving far less publicity. It is the defense that has carried the Cardinals to victory vs. the better opponents they faced, such as in a 24-10 win over Rutgers last week and a 27-13 win over Kentucky, and a strong case can be made that the Central Florida Knights are the best team Louisville will have faced yet. UCF is 4-1 with its only loss coming by three points to nationally ranked South Carolina out of the SEC, and the Knights are also underrated defensively allowing 16.6 points per game. The ‘under’ is 19-7 in the last 26 Louisville games in October.

Dodgers vs Cardinals
Pick : Under 5.5

Yes this is a very low posted total when Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers visit Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 6 of the NLCS Friday, but this total is where it is with very good reason. You do not need us to tell you about all of Kershaw’s accolades, which include allowing one earned run in 32 innings over his last five starts and two earned runs or less in 15 of his last 16 outings! Furthermore the Dodgers figure to keep Kershaw on the mound for as long as necessary in an elimination game trailing in this series 3-2. Do not overlook Wacha either, as all he has done in his first two post-season starts is allow one run on six hits in 14 innings with 17 strikeouts vs. three walks. The ‘under’ is 13-2-1 in Cardinals last 16 home games vs. left-handed starters.

EZWINNERS

Central Florida +14.5

Many experts expect Louisville to breeze through the regular season undefeated, but this game is going to be much tougher then most people think in my opinion. The Cardinals struggled last week to knock off Rutgers 24-10. The high powered Louisville offense was held in check for most of the game by the Scarlet Knights defense and it was the Cardinals defense that had to make some plays to seal the victory. This week Louisville will face an even better defense when the kick off against UCF in this game. The Knights defense is solid and this George O'Leary coach team will not be intimidated by playing at Louisville. The Knights have already gone on the road this season and won at Penn State. All the talk is about Cardinal's quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, but Central Florida has a very capable quarterback of their own in Blake Bortles. The Louisville defense has been playing well lately, but they will be challenged by Bortles and the UCF offense. UCF is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of eight or more points and they are also 5-0 against the spread in their last five games played during the week. Its homecoming week for Louisville so there are extra distractions this week and the Cardinals are just 1-7-1 against the spread the last eight times they've played weekday games. Take the points.

Carlos Salazar

Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Play: Under 5.5

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching! Carlos says it's all about the pitchers tonight. With Kershaw going for the Dodgers and Wacha for the Cardinals hits will be few and infrequent. In Wacha's last three outings he has allowed one run on seven hits while striking out 26 in 22 2/3 innings. Kershaw has been no slouch either yielding four runs - one earned - and eight hits while striking out 23 in 19 innings. Bet the under here with confidence.

Dave Cokin

Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers

It’s do or die tonight for the Dodgers as they take the field in St. Louis for Game Six of their NLCS duel. The pitching matchup could not be much better with the best pitcher in the game doing battle with the rookie sensation.

First, a few numbers that have to be factored into this analysis. To be precise, I’m talking about the St. Louis stats against lefties. Small samples are meaningless, but when we’re looking at a complete season, that’s a different story. The fact is that the 2013 Redbirds are markedly less potent facing lefties than righties.

The Cardinals are .42 worse in batting average and .41 worse in OBP against southpaws than vs. right handers. More importantly, they’re averaging more than 1.5 fewer runs per nine innings against southpaws. Those are really significant differentials, and now they have to face the game’s most dominant lefty in Kershaw.

The hole card for the Cardinals is Wacha. He’s been nothing short of amazing, and I can’t see the Dodgers suddenly blowing up this rookie, who is apparently impervious to big game pressure. Actually, it just seems to bring out the best in him.

But in a win or go home scenario, there simply isn’t anyone I’d rather have throwing for me than Clayton Kershaw. Add in the fact that the Cardinals just don’t handle lefties very well, and there’s only one way I can play. This doesn’t figure to be easy by any means, but I’m going to have to side with the Dodgers to force a Game Seven with the win at Busch tonight.