Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday October, 19

Jim Feist

Giants at Cardinals
Pick: Over

St. Louis can smack the baseball with anyone, 5th in baseball in runs scored and tops in on base percentage. But they don't have their best arm going in Lance Lynn, a guy who steps into the rotation only after replacing an injured Jaime Garcia (shoulder). The over is 5-2 in the Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants can also hit, with San Francisco 12th in runs scored and 8th in OBP. And aging Barry Zito is no ace, with a 4.34 road ERA. The over is 37-18-2 in the Giants last 57 overall and 9-4 over the total in Zito's last 13 road starts. Play the Giants/Cardinals Game 5 over the total.

Dave Cokin

San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

The Giants have won each of Barry Zito's last 12 starts. But St. Louis has major momentum, the Giants are not hitting, and the Redbirds have destroyed lefties at Busch all year. Price reflects this, but I'll still side with the Cardinals.

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St. Louis -145FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After splitting a pair of games by the Bay the Giants have dropped a pair in St. Louis to enter tonight's game on the verge of elimination. But this was a team that lost the 1st 2 games to the Reds before rallying for 3 Victories to win that series. Nonetheless, the Giants are just 4-5 in the playoffs this season, a far cry from the positive momentum of St. Louis which enters on runs of 19-7 (dating back to the regular season) including 7-3 in the playoffs. For SF, today's starter Zito won his last 7 starts of the regular season. His fortune has not carried over to the playoffs. In 2 2/3 IP vs. Cincinnati, Zito allowed 4 walks and 2 runs. In 9 starts vs. St Louis Zito is 2-6 with a 4.89 ERA. For St. Louis Lynn is a converted starter who did a great job in the 1st half of the season filling a spot in the rotation resulting from injuries. Though he did not have as strong a second half he still finished with a record of 18-7 with a 3.78 ERA. Much like Zito, Lynn has underperformed in the playoffs. In game 1 of this series Lynn allowed 4 runs in 3 1/3 IP. Combined with 4 relief appearances, Lynn has an 8.59 ERA in the playoffs. Unquestionably however, Lynn did his best work from this mound in the regular season posting a 3.33 ERA. Combined with the solid positive team momentum, I like St. Louis to close out the series tonight.
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Minnesota -2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Just minutes into Indiana's deciding game of the Eastern Conference Finals vs. Connecticut inspirational veteran and top 3 point marksman, Katie Douglas, left the game with a severely sprained ankle. For the next 10 quarters, encompassing their 87-71 blowout win of Connecticut, they're 76-70 game 1 win at Minnesota, and the 1st half of game 2, Indiana played like the best ladies' basketball team in the world. It was an example of a team playing inspired ball in the face of their fallen emotional leader. They played with offensive cohesion and chemistry, with great defensive intensity and passion. Inside force Erlana Larkins (who couldn't even make a WNBA team L2Y) played like the best "big" in the League. Shooting guard Erin Phillips made her Australian Olympic coach look foolish for not including her on the Aussie team. Young PG Briann January was a steadying influence well beyond her years. The League's best all-around player, T. Catch, proved she deserved that moniker. The turning point came mid-way in game 2 against Minnesota. Savvy, veteran Minnesota HC Cheryl Reeves, became incensed (or at least acted that way) over a non-call against PG Whalen as she drove to the basket. In a sideline display rarely seen in this League, she ripped off her jacket and had to be restrained from going after the game officials on the court. The ensuing technical foul on both Reeves and Whalen served to light a fire under the previously lethargic defending champs. Seimone "went off" for 20+ in the 2nd half and Maya chipped in with a 20+ for the game as well. Injured PG Whalen (wrist) stirred up the defensive intensity, while interior forces Brunson and McWilliams-Franklin controlled the paint. By the final whistle, the defending champions had forced 25 Indiana TOs in the game (Indiana was No. 2 in the League, committing only 13 in the reg. season). The Lynx stormed to a 83-71 victory. Can Indiana Bounce Back on a home court where they were 13-4 in the reg. season? That's possible. But the higher probability is that the momentum has swung in this series with the Lynx now capable of winning in a convincing fashion.

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UConn/ Syracuse Under 44: The Big East on Friday night with a couple of teams that are playing very good defense at the moment. Doesn't get any better than this for an Under player such as myself. The Connecticut Huskies defense has been very good this year as they come in allowing just 261 ypg and 4 yards per play on the year, while also giving up just 16.3 ppg. They do face a Syracuse offense that has put up 316 ypg through the air, but UConn does allow just 161.6 ypg passing on a 49.5 completion percentage so It will not be all that easy for the Cuse to pass on this defense. On the other side we have a Syracuse defense that is playing very well right now as they come in allowing just 306.7 ypg and 17.7 ppg in their last 3 games. The Orange will be playing a UConn offense that is very conservative that averages just 320 ypg and 4.8 yards per play on the year. UConn does run the ball 8 more times a game than they throw it but they still put up just 100 ypg rushing on a mere 2.7 ypc. This is not a team with big play potential and they don't take many chances. With both defenses playing very well and a Conservative UConn offense this has all the making of a tough physical game with o more than 37 points being scored. Easy under here.

David Banks

Connecticut / Syracuse Under 43.5

Former Syracuse coach Paul Pasqualoni returns to the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY for the first time in eight years when he brings his Connecticut Huskies (3-4, 2-4-1) to town to take on the Syracuse Orange (2-4, 1-4-1 ATS) Friday night at 8:00 ET on ESPN. Pasqualoni was fired by the Orange in 2004 after 14 years at the Syracuse helm, so emotions could be running high here. It also helps that his Huskies have the eighth ranked pass defense in the country to combat the 14th ranked passing offense of Syracuse.

Despite throwing the ball up and down the field for 316.0 yards per game led by quarterback Ryan Nassib, the Orange have still not covered a point spread since a 42-29 loss to USC at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey back in Week 2, and in the last four games they have two non-covering wins including a lackluster 28-17 win over Stony Brook out of the FCS and two losses, the most recent of which came at Rutgers 23-15 last week. Nassib threw for 356 yards in that defeat but he also threw two interceptions while getting practically zero support from a running game that produced a measly 62 rushing yards on 32 carries (1.9 YPC). That has been the story for Syracuse all season as the Orange rank 97th in the county at 3.6 yards per rush overall, and even that low figure is enhanced by rushing for 214 yards on 45 carries (4.8 YPC) vs. Stony Brook. Teams have figured out that the Orange will not improve there running game any time soon, and that has resulted in Nassib throwing five interceptions vs. just two touchdown passes over the last three games vs. teams knowing that he has to throw. He now has 11 touchdowns vs. eight interceptions on the season, and he has a terrible one-to-one ratio vs. FBS teams once you factor out the three-touchdown, no-interception performance vs. Stony. He is now facing the stiffest pass defense he has faced yet with the Huskies allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt and boasting one of the premier pass-rushers in the country in Trevardo Williams, who finished fifth in the nation in sacks last season and already has 7 this year.

Do you think Pasqualoni is looking forward to shutting down the Syracuse passing attack, just about rendering the Orange offense useless? It is a good thing that he figures to be successful in that regard because the Connecticut offense has resembled something out of the Stone Age, ranking 109th in the land in total offense and 111th in scoring at 19.0 points per game. However there is a ray of hope there in that quarterback Chandler Whitmer has improved steadily over his first year as a starter, and he had his best performance yet last week, albeit in a 17-14 overtime loss to Temple, as he threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Granted he is now facing a 27th ranked Syracuse passing defense, but the Orange still rank just 72nd at 7.2 yards per pass attempt allowed, an indication that they have been susceptible to big plays.

The Huskies generally bounce back well from adversity as they are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss, which is also evidence that good defensive teams rarely go into slumps. Syracuse is just 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games overall, and Connecticut is 5-0 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings.

Jeff Benton

19-10 freebie run.

Your Friday freebie is the Over in the Giants-Cardinals contest.

Four NLCS games in the books, three of the four have played Over.

More of the same tonight with Zito and Lynn toeing the slab.

Zito sports a 4.30 ERA over his last three starts, and three of his last four starting assignments have played Over the total.

Lynn sports an even larger 5.06 ERA the last three times he has made the start, Lynn has actually worked out of the bullpen four of his last five October appearances though. Still, I have to believe with the Giants staring elimination in the face they will pull out all the stops tonight to send this series back to the bay area.

Same can be said for the Cards who would like to stick a fork in the Giants and end it all tonight.

Go Over tonight in Game Five of the NLCS.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO-ST. LOUIS OVER

Rob Vinciletti

Giants vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 7.5

What we want to do in this game is play the over for home favorites off a home favored win by 5 or more runs with a total that was 8 or less and had 10 or more hits with 5 or more men left on base and no errors, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs with 1 error. These games have flown over 21 of 27 times and have averaged over 10 runs. The Giants are scoring 5 runs per game on the road this season. The Cardinals have played over in 19 of 27 on Friday and average 5.6 runs per game vs lefthanders, which is what they will see tonight in Zito. In his starts vs the Cardinals Zito has an era near 5. He will oppose L. Lynn who has a 7.80 era vs the Giants. Look for this game to get over the total tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Fran/ST. LOUIS over 7½ -102

With Adam Wainwright and Tim Lincecum starting yesterday, these two offenses combined to score 11 times. Overall in this series, the Cardinals have scored 28 runs in the five games while the Giants haven’t been far behind with 22 runs scored. That’s a combined 50 runs in five games and now the two weakest starters for both teams will oppose one another with the total being 2½ runs lower than the average runs scored per game in this NLDS. All we can say is, “Sweet”.

For the first time in years, Barry Zito put up double-digit wins and somewhat respectable numbers but with a history of poor skills and bloated results, he’s a disaster waiting to happen. Zito’s skills are the same as 2011's, that being barely more strikeouts than walks, an xERA of almost 5.00, third straight season of declining strikeouts and a line-drive rate constantly around 20%. So, while it looks like a resurgence on the surface, on a pure skills level, it's not a resurgence at all. The Cardinals could go over this number on their own tonight.

Lance Lynn was a model of consistency during the first four months of the season. Then a 6.66 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP showing in August derailed his season. He was relegated to the pen to close out the year but got a start in game one of this series after the Cardinals were forced to five games against Washington. In San Fran in game 1, Lynn didn’t make it out of the fourth inning, allowing five hits, four runs and walking two. Nothing suggests either one of these two starters can last deep into this one, giving us another great opportunity to play a Barry Zito start over a low total.

Harry Bondi

UCONN (+4.5) over Syracuse

We'll gladly take the generous points here with a UConn defense that is absolutely for real. The Huskies have allowed more than 21 points just once in seven games this year and four of those opponents have been held to 17 points or less. This unit is at its best against the run and that is going to put all the pressure tonight on 'Cuse QB Ryan Nassib, who has been turnover happy this season. UConn has covered five straight in this series and you can nix any idea of Syracuse having a home field edge since it has covered just five of its last 16 games in the dome. Take the points.