Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 21

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Rutgers/ Louisville Under 40: For those of you that like low scoring defensive battles this game will be for you. The Rutgers offense comes in ranked 93rd in total offense (323 ypg) and 111th in rushing (91.8 ypg). They have put up 30.3 ppg overall, but just 26.8 vs FBS fores and 20 ppg on the road this year. Now offense isn't rewally how this team makes their money, but it's on the defensive end. Thje Rutgers defense is one of the best in the Nation. allowing just 300 ypg (16th) and 16 ppg (12th), pluas they have allowed just 26 total points in their 2 Big East games thus far. The Rutgers defensive numbers should get even better after this one as they will be facing a Louisville offense that is even worse than the Knights. Louisville's offense is 99th overall (331 ypg), 102nd in rushhing (109.2 ypg and 111th in scoring (16.3 ppg). This team can't run or pass and oh yeah they are also 88th in kicking, hitting just 62.5% of their FG attempts. Now just like Rutgers, defense is the bread and butter of this Louisville team. The Cards allow just 303 ypg, which is 18th in the nation and just 167.7 ppg, which is 16th. They also allow just 312 ypg and 16.7 ppg at home. As you can these are a couple of pathetic offenses, going up against two top 20 defenses and I relly don't see how these teams hit 30 points, let alone 40. This one should be easy. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 1-8 when Rutgers is off a home win and the OU is 2-11 when louisville is a home fave of 7 or less.

2 UNIT PLAY

West Virginia/ Syracuse Over 58: This is not a Power Angle play, but I do have a good one for this play. Here we play the Over with a OU Line of 56.5 to 63 and both teams allow between 21 and 28 ppg, if at least 1 of the teams scored 31+ ppg in BB games. This has gone 39-13 the last 10 years. West Virginia averages a healther 40.8 ppg on the year, while Syracuse has put up a nice 26.7 ppg so far and both defenses are average at best as the Mountaineers have allowed 21.5 ppg so far, while the 'Cuse have allowed 27.3 ppg. Not my forte to play an Over with a total this high, but I can see these teams hitting at least 60 points in this one.

Wunderdog

West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse +14

The Big East is very soft this year with West Virginia the only Big East team to have cracked the Top 25 rankings this season. The Mountaineers have risen above the rest at 5-1 to start the season, but Syracuse at 4-2 should be able to give them a game at home. West Virginia has lived off a lot of home cooking early with five home games, and almost stumbled in their only roadie at 2-4 Maryland, winning by 6 points as an interception return for a TD was the game changer. Maryland matched the Mountaineers yard-for-yard in that contest. The Cuse has a penchant for playing close games, with three games decided in OT already this season and another by a FG and yet another by a single TD. Syracuse went into West Virginia last year and won by 5 points, so they clearly can hang with the Mountaineers. West Virginia is not delivering as big chalk now at 4-10-1 ATS when posted as a -10.5 point favorite or greater. The Orange have had two weeks to prepare for this one and coming off a bye they are now a picture-perfect 5-0 ATS. Take Syracuse in this one.

Tony Stoffo

Rutgers vs. Louisville
Play: Under 40

CFB Free Play Rutgers at Louisville Even though the odds makers have posted a very low total here for tonight as Rutgers pays a visit to Louisville. Going to release the Under in this spot as both of these defenses will dominate all game long as these stats will attest too: The Knights are fourth in the country in tackles for loss (8.5 per game). Louisville is tied for sixth (8.3 per game). Rutgers is ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.0 ppg). Louisville checks in at 16th (17.6 ppg). Louisville ranks 17th in the country in total defense, allowing 303.5 yards per game. Rutgers is 19th (305.8 ypg). The Cardinals are the nation's 20th-best rush defense, giving up 100.6 yards per game. Rutgers is 28th, allowing 110.3 yards per game. Offensively, both teams start true freshman quarterbacks in Gary Nova (Rutgers) and Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville). And each start freshman running backs in Jawan Jamison (Rutgers) and Dominique Brown (Louisville). Rutgers is 8-1 Under off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Louisville is 11-2 Under as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Jim Feist

Carolina vs. St Louis
Play: Carolina

Carolina heads out on the road but that's no problem as they are 2-1 away from home. They've won 3 in a row and the Hurricanes are 7-0 in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. They take on a St. Louis team that has had a rough start, particularly on defense. The Blues are 1-4 in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest and 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. And the Hurricanes are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play the Carolina Hurricanes.

David Chan

Blue Jackets @ Red Wings
PICK: Over 5.5

0-5-1 Columbus stumbles into Detroit to take on the 4-0 Red Wings.

The Blue Jackets are reeling from their poor start and from the news that they've lost the services of newcomer center Jeff Carter after he sustained an injury in Saturday's setback in Dallas.

So far goaltender Steven Mason has been mediocre at best.

Columbus has scored 12-goals and allowed 20.

Detroit comes into this contest having had five whole days off.

The Red Wings power-play got untracked in Saturday's 3-2 win over the Wild in which it tallied the winner with the man-advantage in overtime.

"Work ethic is a key," Wings coach Mike Babcock said. "If your power play's one and done all the time -- you shoot it and never get it back -- you're not going to have much success. You got to wear the other team out, you got to shoot it and get it back."

Injured or not, Detroit knows it's going to have its hands full with this winless Jackets club:

"They always play good against us," forward Henrik Zetterberg said. "We have some problems with them, and they will probably come up and play a good game tomorrow, and if we're not focused on playing well, we won't win the game."

In my humble opinion, all signs point to a high-scoring affair; what do you think?!

EZWINNERS

West Virginia -14.5

West Virginia is ranked number eleven in the nation and is sitting at 5-1 with their only loss coming to number one ranked LSU. The Mountaineers are the favorite to win the Big East and I expect a big win from them in this game against the Orange. Both teams are coming off of a bye week but WVU will be focused for this game as they will be seeking revenge for last years 19-14 upset in Morgantown by Syracuse. The Mountaineers are going to be too much for Syracuse to handle. West Virginia is one of just four teams that ranks in the two twenty nationally in both total offense and total defense. Syracuse is just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last ten games as a home underdog of 10.5 points or more and West Virginia is 5-1 against the spread when coming off of a bye week. Lay the points!

SPORTS WAGERS

West Virginia –14 over SYRACUSE

Rarely, if ever, do we step out and lay 14 road points but this one warrants it. Last year the Orange went into Morgantown and shocked the superior Mountaineers. West Virginia has had this game circled on its calendar ever since. That loss by WVU to the Orange last year was a complete aberration. The Mountaineers are loaded with seniors and offensive talent that should wreak havoc on this weak defense. Syracuse has not seen an offense like the one presented here and much lesser talents have carved them up already this season. In fact, they’ve allowed 300 + yards through the air to every opponent this season with the exception of Rutgers, who racked up 297. The Orange defense has also given up a lot of big plays of over 40 yards or more. The Mountaineers are built for speed and the Carrier Dome will accompany them to a tee. West Virginia QB Geno Smith is tearing it up with over 2100 passing yards and 16 TD’s already. How comfortable is West Virginia at this venue? Consider that its 5th year seniors have played twice here and have won by a combined score of 89-27. When you add in last year’s loss along with the motivation that comes from being featured on National TV, you can expect more of the same from this highly motivated and superior intruder. Play: West Virginia –14 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).

TORONTO +144 over Edmonton

It’s too little too late for the Argonauts but this team is playing much better recently and showing signs of a lot of good things to come. The Argos are coming off two strong efforts against Montreal and Calgary. They beat Calgary last week and they can surely beat the Eskies this week. The Boatmen are moving the ball more efficiently than they have been all season and their punt and kick return teams are the most dangerous in the league. They always give the Double Blue good field position. Toronto is loose and they’re having fun for the first time all year. The Eskies are in a dogfight for first in the West with BC and Calgary. They’ve won two straight but they were both at home and they only scored 17 and 24 points respectively over the Riders and Bombers. Now they travel East to face an Argos team that is strong defensively and that has looked progressively stronger with each passing game over the last month. Play: Toronto +144 (Risking 2 units).

CALGARY –10 over Saskatchewan

The Riders hung around last week at home against the Lions and it’s actually a crime that Saskatchewan didn’t cover that game. The Riders showed up and played hard but in the end, they lost by 11 after being outscored 17-3 in the fourth. Saskatchewan will now travel and come in unmotivated and nothing to play for. Saskatchewan has scored a putrid 27 points over its last four game and that’s not a typo. The team is a mess and the next three weeks can’t go by soon enough for them. Meanwhile, the Stamps need to get right-sided. They’re coming off a loss to Toronto, they’ve dropped four of five and they benched Henry Burris during the Argos game last week. Burris has been asked to sit again this week in favor of Drew Tate. Tate came in last week in relief of Burris and went 19-28 for 268 yards and two TD’s. Tate is no stranger to the CFL game. He’s in his third year and could provide the spark the Stamps are looking for. The Iowa product is mobile, talented and makes good decisions, which is a lot more than we can say about Burris’ decision making. The Stampeders are in a great position to blow out this disinterested guest and anything but a blowout would be a surprise. Play: Calgary –10 +104 (Risking 2 units).

NHL Predictions

Detroit Red Wings -1.5

The Wings must win by 2 or more goals for us to win this bet. Tonight we have the winless 0-5-1 Columbus Blue Jackets squaring off with the undefeated 4-0 Red Wings, in what can be seen in a pretty big mismatch with the injuries the Blue Jackets are suffering. The Blue Jackets will be without Jeff Carter, Kristian Huselius, Jared Boll, and James Wisniewski (suspension) for tonight's game. In net we will see Steve Mason and Jimmy Howard. Mason this season has started all 6 games and ha a 3.35 GAA and .883 SV%. Howard has 3 starts and a 1.63 GAA and .930 SV%. In their 6 meetings last season Detroit only managed to beat Columbus by 2 goals twice, but at this point in the season it isn't comparable to last season. The Blue Jackets are sort of lost, scoring just 2 goals per game while allowing 3.17 against. Columbus' penalty kill is just 76% and their powerplay is sitting just above 6%. The Red Wings have averaged over 3 goals per game and have allowed just 1.25 goals against per game. With Huselius and Carter out for the Blue Jackets the talent up front doesn't even touch the Red Wings offense. I think we're getting a good price for the Wings to win by 2 or more on home ice. Take Detroit on the Puck Line with confidence.

Anaheim Ducks -137

A solid early season match up with the 5-1 Dallas Stars and 4-1 Anaheim Ducks. The Stars have enjoyed two wins over Columbus, and wins against St Louis, Phoenix, and Chicago. Anaheim started the season with a loss against Buffalo in Europe and has since beat the Rangers, San Jose, St Louis, and the Sharks again in San Jose. The Stars are pretty lucky to have the record they do, as they were out shot in 4 of their 5 wins, which included being outshot by 22, 12, 16, and 5 shots. If it wasn't for Kari Lehtonen the Stars could easily be 2-4 or 1-5 coming into tonight's game. Lehtonen is 5-0 with a 1.58 GAA and .953 SV%. Not far behind Lehtonen is Jonas Hiller who is 3-1 with a 1.71 GAA and .931 SV%. The Ducks have given Lehtonen troubles as he is just 3-4-2 with a 3.21 GAA against the Ducks in his 9 career starts. The Ducks are 47-23 in their last 70 home games and are 4-1 in their last 5 at home against the Stars. Early this season the Ducks have looked like the better team, and at home in front of Hiller they will be a tough team to beat. Take the Ducks for 1 unit tonight laying just a bit of chalk at home.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Louisville -1.5

Louisville gave a very good Cincinnati team all it wanted and more on the road last week because of its rock solid defense. The Bearcats, which rank 11th in scoring with 41.7 ppg and 44th in total offense with 421.7 ypg, only managed 26 points and 330 yards on the Cardinals. The ground game eventually allowed Cincy to come back and win the game. Fortunately for Louisville, Rutgers is one of the worst rushing teams in the country. The Scarlet Knights ranks 112th in the nation with 91.8 yards per game on the ground. They rely heavily on their passing attack to move the football, which likely doesn't bode well for them tonight. Louisville ranks 18th in the country in total defense with 303.5 yards allowed per game, and it has held opponents to only 202.8 passing yards per contest (38th FBS). If Louisville could hold Cincy down on the road last week, it can certainly slow down Rutgers at home tonight. The Cards crushed the Scarlet Knights 40-13 last season, holding Rutgers, who ranked 4th in the league in passing, to only 181 yards through the air. I expect the Louisville defense to be the difference again in this year's matchup. The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Lay the number.

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +108 over ST. LOUIS

The Blues return home from a four-game trip here and there is a little panic setting in. They signed Jaroslav Halak to a big contract last year and he’s been nothing short of brutal. Brian Elliott gets the call tonight but so what. The Blues have dropped three of four on said trip with only win over that span coming against the Sharks in a game they had no business winning. The Blues have been outscored 9-2 over their past two games and those losses and soft goals take its toll. The Canes have won three in a row over the Sabres and Bruins twice. Sure, this could be a letdown spot but they’re in a much better frame of mind and Cam Ward is one of the best in the business. Goaltending is becoming the single most important factor in determining the outcome of games and we’ve seen it over and over this season already. With that in mind, a confident and hot Canes team with the outstanding goaltending of Cam Ward gets the call over a fragile host, with goaltending issues, returning home from a West Coast swing, Play: Carolina +108 (Risking 2 units).

San Jose -½ +135 over NEW JERSEY

The Sharkss are 1-3 while the Devils are 3-1 and that would appear to give the edge to the host as a home dog. Thing is, the Sharkies have been absolutely dominating in all their games but have little to show for it. San Jose deserves to be 4-0 after beating Phoenix 6-3 on opening night before dominating the Ducks twice and the Blue Notes once. Now the Sharks embark on a six-game trip beginning here and you’ll find that teams very often put forth its best effort in the first game of a long trip. With a 1-3 record, it’s even more crucial for the Sharks to be focused and the players are looking forward to this trip. It’s also worth noting that the Devils have been off since Saturday and that can’t be good. They’ve played well but this is a team that is offensively challenged and its goaltending is not that strong. The Sharks are really an elite team. They may even be the best team in the NHL. However, a slow start in terms of their W/L record has them undervalued but in reality, the Sharkies have not been flat at all, just unlucky. That all changes here. Play: San Jose -½ +135 (Risking 2 units).

ANAHEIM -½ +112 over Dallas

The Stars are off to a torrid 5-1 start, which simply cannot last. They play in Los Angeles tonight and if we lose this bet, we’ll fade them tomorrow for 3 units because there is very little chance of them sweeping these two games. The Stars beat the winless Jackets twice and in the last game in Columbus were outshot 40-18. Against St. Louis, a 3-2 Stars win, they were outshot 38-24. In their 2-1 win over Phoenix they were outshot 41-25. That 5-1 record is a complete mirage, as this year’s edition of the Dallas Stars is not much better than any team in the NHL and a lot worse than most. Kari Lehtonen has been the difference but on the other end of the rink will be Jonas Hiller and no goaltender in the league is playing better than he. The Ducks are off to a hot 4-1 start too and while they, too, have been outplayed in at least two of their games, they’ve faced the Sabres, Sharks twice and the Rangers. They take a big step down in class when facing this guest and even if Lehtonen stands on his head, it’s likely not going to matter. Better team facing a fraudulent 5-1 squad. Play: Anaheim -½ +112 (Risking 2 units). Note: These -½ puck plays in regulation are not available at all books. However, the “three-way” line is and it’s essentially the exact same thing, so bet it that way.

Jack Jones

Louisville -1

I can say without hesitation that Rutgers is one of the worst 5-1 teams in the history of college football. This team has simply been fortunate all season long as they are +15 in turnovers, which is a pace that's not going to last. Louisville isn't a team that turns the ball over often, as they have just four giveaways in their last four games. I don't believe the Cardinals are going to shoot themselves in the foot like the rest of the teams that Rutgers has faced this season.

The Scarlet Knights are only averaging 332.8 total yards/game in 2011, which ranks them 98th in the country in total offense. They have the 104th-ranked ground game at 91.8 rushing yards/game. They aren't going to be able to do much offensively against a Louisville defense that ranks 18th in yards allowed (303.5/game) and 20th against the run (100.7 yards/game).

Despite going 1-3 SU in their last 4 games, the Cardinals are 3-1 ATS. They have played well during this span, with road losses to North Carolina and Cincinnati by 7 and 9 points, respectively. They also beat Kentucky 24-17 on the road. I like their chances to get back on track at home tonight against this overrated Rutgers squad.

Louisville is favored for a reason Friday. Aside from the turnovers, these teams are very evenly matched. Rutgers is outgaining opponents 333-300 on the season, while Louisville is outgaining foes 331-304. The home-field advantage factor certainly makes the Cardinals a solid play in this one.

The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Louisville is also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.0 or less. The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bet Louisville Friday.

Rocketman

Rutgers @ Louisville
Play: Rutgers +2

Rutgers is 5-1 overall this year while Louisville is 2-4 on the season. Rutgers is also 5-1 ATS overall this season. Rutgers defense is allowing only 16 points per game overall this year. Louisville is scoring only 16.3 points per game overall this year and 17 points per game at home this season. Rutgers only loss was a 2 point loss at North Carolina. Rutgers is 21-8 ATS last 29 games as a road underdog. Louisville is 6-14 ATS last 20 games against conference opponents. Louisville is 0-5 ATS last 5 home games. We'll recommend a small play on Rutgers tonight!

Rob Vinciletti

San Jose Sharks vs. New Jersey Devils
Play: New Jersey Devils

The Devils are streaking and on a 3 game win streak, while the San Jose Sharks are on a 3 game losing streak. The Devils have won the last 5 here at home vs the Sharks and have won 13 of 20 when playing with 3 days rest. When coming off a win of 1 goal in 2 straight games the Devils have won 13 of 16. The Sharks have lost 14 of 21 off a one goal loss and 5 of their last 6. Look for New Jersey to get the win here tonight.

Black Widow

1* Rutgers/Louisville UNDER 41

Tonight's Big East showdown between Rutgers and Louisville puts two of the worst offenses in the country up against two of the best defenses in the land. Louisville is ranked 101st in the country in total offense (330.5 yards/game) and 18th in total defense (303.5 yards/game), while Rutgers is 98th in total offense (332.8 yards/game)and 16th in total defense (300.0 yards/game). Rutgers is only giving up 16.0 points/game and Louisville is allowing 17.7 points/game. Both teams have been going under the total in almost every game they have played this season. The Cardinals are 5-0-1 UNDER in all games and the Scarlet Knights are 5-1 UNDER. The UNDER is 6-0 in Louisville's last 6 home games. The Cardinals are 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER 41 points here.