SPORTS ADVISOR
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh (3-1, 2-1 ATS) at Louisville (1-2, 1-1 ATS)
Pitt tries to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it travels to Louisville for a battle with the Cardinals in the Big East opener for both teams.
The Panthers routed their first three opponents by a combined 119-44, then went to North Carolina State on Saturday and squandered a 14-point lead with less than 20 minutes to play, losing 38-31 in a pick-em contest. Pitt got outgained 530-300 in the defeat, including 208-94 on the ground, and lost the time-of-possession battle 37 minutes to 23 minutes.
This is the fifth straight year these squads have met, and after Louisville won the first three clashes by a combined 53 points, Pitt got revenge in a big way last year, rolling 41-7 as a six-point home favorite. The Panthers forced four turnovers (two defensive scores) in the victory, which actually ended Pitt’s seven-game losing streak to the Cardinals that dated to 1990. The Panthers have cashed each of the last two years after going 1-5 ATS in the first six meetings, and the favorite is 3-1 ATS in the last four.
Louisville followed up a competitive 31-27 loss at instate rival Kentucky with a 30-14 blowout defeat at Utah on Saturday, failing to cover as a 14-point road underdog. The Cardinals, who have lost seven consecutive games to Division I-A foes (1-6 ATS), got whipped all over the field by Utah, which had a 416-261 edge in total yards (214-80 rushing) and forced three Louisville turnovers.
Behind QB Bill Stull (65.6 percent completion rate, 746 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT), Pitt’s offense is putting up 37.5 points and 360 yards (154 rushing) per game. The defense is allowing 20.5 points and 351.8 yards per outing, including 112.5 rushing ypg (2.9 yards per carry).
Long known for an explosive offense, the Cardinals have now scored 21 points or fewer in six of their last eight games, and they’re averaging 23.7 points and just 352.7 total yards (223 passing) per contest. Meanwhile, after holding Division I-AA Indiana State to 10 points and 101 total yards in a season-opening win, the defense has surrendered 31 and 30 points and an average of 381 yards the last two weeks.
Pitt is in the midst of ATS slumps of 5-12 as a favorite, 0-4 against teams with a losing record and 16-35 after a SU defeat, but Dave Wannstedt’s squad is 4-1 ATS in its last five October clashes. Louisville is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home ‘dog, but otherwise is on pointspread slides of 1-6 overall, 0-5 in Big East play, 2-5 in Big East home games, 1-5 on Friday, 1-5 as an underdog and 1-5 against winning teams.
The Panthers carry “over” trends of 5-2 on the road, 5-0 as a road chalk, 9-4 in conference play, 5-2 on Friday and 5-2 as a favorite. Similarly, Louisville is on “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 4-0 when playing on grass. However, the under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Utah State (1-2, 2-0 ATS) at (20) BYU (3-1 SU and ATS)
Utah State hits the road for the third time in four games this season, making the short trek to Provo, Utah, for a non-conference clash with the 20th-ranked Cougars.
The Aggies got spread-covers as a 20½-point underdog in season-opening road losses at Utah (35-17) and Texas A&M (38-30), then came home on Saturday and pounded Southern Utah 53-34 in a non-lined game. Going back to the start of the 2003 season, Utah State is 15-57 SU against Division I-A foes and has lost 13 consecutive non-conference games to I-A competition, but the Aggies have covered in seven straight lined contests (6-0 ATS as an underdog).
BYU rebounded from an ugly 54-28 home loss to Florida State with Saturday’s 42-23 victory over Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State, barely cashing as an 18-point home favorite. The Cougars actually got outgained 438-373 by the Rams, and the defense has now given up 950 yards the last two weeks, while QB Max Hall has tossed five interceptions.
The Cougars rolled past Utah State 34-14 last year, but failed to cover as a 29-point road favorite. BYU has won 25 of 28 in this rivalry since 1975, including the last nine in a row. The teams have split the cash over those nine contests at 4-4-1 ATS, with the Aggies going 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven (all as a big underdog). The host is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
BYU’s Hall now has as many interceptions (eight) as TD passes, but he’s still completing 67.7 percent of his passes for 1,185 yards. Meanwhile, Utah State’s Diondre Borel has 52.1 completion rate for 771 yards with four TDs and one INT, while adding 111 rushing yards and three scores on the ground.
In addition to its ATS runs of 7-0 overall and 6-0 as a ‘dog, Utah State is on further pointspread rolls of 16-6 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 11-4 as a road pup, 5-1 against Mountain West opponents and 4-0-1 after a SU win. Meanwhile, BYU in ATS declines of 6-11 overall, 5-8 as a favorite, 1-6 when laying 20 points or more, 1-4 at home, 2-7 after a SU win, 2-5 against Western Athletic Conference opponents, 1-4-1 on Friday and 0-5 in October.
The over is 3-1-1 in Utah State’s last five overall, 3-0-1 in its last four on the road (all as an underdog), 5-1 in BYU’s last six overall and 4-0 in BYU’s last four as a favorite. Conversely, the under is on streaks of 3-0-1 for the Aggies in October, 5-1 for the Cougars in October and 3-1-1 for the Cougars on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH STATE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Colorado (91-68) at L.A. Dodgers (93-66)
The struggling Dodgers try once again to wrap up the N.L. West title when they open a season-ending three-game home series against the Rockies, who have clinched at least a wild-card berth and can still catch Los Angeles in the division. L.A.’s Randy Wolf (11-6, 3.27 ERA) is slated to oppose Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez (14-12, 3.52) tonight.
Colorado finished off a three-game sweep of the Brewers on Thursday, prevailing 9-2 to earn a postseason berth for second time in three years. The Dodgers have also punched their playoff ticket despite losing four in a row and six of eight on a just-concluded road trip to Washington, Pittsburgh and San Diego. They’re now just two games up on the Rockies in the division with three to play, meaning L.A. needs one win in this series to capture its second straight N.L. West title and relegate Colorado to the wild card.
The Rockies have won four in a row and five of six after going 4-7 in their previous 11 contests. However, Colorado has dropped five straight road games against southpaw starters, eight of 11 against winning clubs and 10 of 12 when facing a winning opponent on the highway.
The Dodgers, who were one-hit in Wednesday’s 5-0 loss in San Diego, have scored a total of two runs in the last three games and are batting .230 as a team over their last 10 contests. Joe Torre’s team has lost four of its last five on Friday and five of its last seven after a day off, but it is 5-1 in its last six at home and 6-2 in its last eight against right-handed starters.
Los Angeles has owned Colorado this year, going 12-3, including 5-1 at Dodger Stadium. In fact, the Dodgers are 49-23 in the last 72 head-to-head battles in Hollywood.
Jimenez gave up four runs on six hits in seven innings in Saturday’s 6-3 home loss to the Cardinals. He’s surrendered 12 runs (11 earned) in his last three outings covering 16 2/3 innings (5.94 ERA). Still, the Rockies are 8-3 in Jimenez’s last 11 starts overall, and 22 of the right-hander’s last 26 outings have been quality starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 16 of those 26 contests.
Colorado is just 11-25 in Jimenez’s last 36 road starts, where he’s 6-7 with a 3.69 ERA this season. Also, Jimenez is 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers in 2009, with the Rockies losing all four games by a combined score of 32-15. For his career, Jimenez is 4-3 with a 6.38 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) against the Dodgers, including 1-1 with a 9.13 ERA in five starts at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers have won four straight and nine of 10 games started by Wolf since Aug. 6, with the southpaw going 6-0 with a 2.73 ERA during this stretch. He got a no-decision on Saturday at Pittsburgh, yielding two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings, with L.A. prevailing 8-4 by scoring five runs in the final two innings.
With Wolf on the hill, the Dodgers are on runs of 19-7 overall, 21-7 at home, 5-1 against the N.L. West, 5-0 on Friday and 13-3 when he faces an opponent with a winning record. He’s 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 17 home starts this year (L.A. is 13-4), and he’s 5-2 with a 4.05 ERA in 12 career starts against Colorado, including 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three games this year (all Dodgers victories).
The under is 9-2 in Jimenez’s last 11 starts overall, 4-1 in his last five on the road, 8-2 in his last 10 on Friday and 4-1 in his last five against the N.L. West, but nine of his 10 career starts against Los Angeles – including four of five at Dodger Stadium – have topped the posted total. Also, with Wolf pitching, the Dodgers are on “over” runs of 4-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 against divisional foes.
The over is 5-2 in Colorado’s last seven road games and 4-1 in its last five series openers, while Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 8-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-2 against the N.L. West and 6-0 against winning teams. However, the last six Dodgers-Rockies battles have stayed under the total, as have six of the last eight meetings at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Chicago White Sox (77-82) at Detroit (85-74)
After blowing an opportunity to punch their postseason ticket on Thursday, the Tigers give it another shot tonight when they send All-Star Edwin Jackson (13-8, 3.36 ERA) to the mound at Comerica Park, while the White Sox counter with Jake Peavy (2-0, 2.25).
Detroit could’ve wrapped up the A.L. Central title Thursday afternoon against second-place Minnesota, but the Tigers lost 8-3. That dropped Detroit’s divisional lead to two games with three to play for each team, meaning any combination of two Detroit wins or Minnesota losses sends the Tigers to the playoffs.
In splitting the critical four-game set with the Twins, the Tigers are now 7-4 in their last 11 games (all versus the A.L. Central) after going 3-9 in the previous 12 to allow Minnesota back in the race. Detroit is 35-17 in its last 52 at Comerica, but it has lost six of its last seven series openers.
Chicago was off Thursday after taking two of three at Cleveland to start this week and it has won four of six following a 1-7 nosedive. The White Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 after a day off, but otherwise they’re in funks of 12-26 on the road, 9-19 on Friday, 2-6 against winning teams and 21-48 on the highway against winning squads.
Detroit holds a slim 8-7 edge in the season series with the White Sox, who have won three of the last four meetings. The host is 6-2 in the last eight clashes, with the Tigers winning four of the last five in their ballpark.
Peavy was dominant in a 2-0 home win over Detroit a week ago tonight, scattering six hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings. He’s allowed three runs and nine hits in 12 innings with a 13-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first two starts with the White Sox, both at home. In addition to last Friday’s 2-0 win, Peavy’s only other start against the Tigers came with the Padres in interleague play in 2005, and he gave up five runs (three earned) in six innings of an 8-4 road loss.
Jackson has been hit hard in three of his last four starts, giving up five runs in all three of those poor performances. That includes an 8-4 loss at the White Sox on Sunday, when he surrendered the five runs in seven innings. Jackson is 3-3 with a 5.16 ERA in seven starts since Aug. 26, including 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA at home. Still, for the season, the right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.73 ERA at Comerica Park.
Jackson has made seven career starts against Chicago, going 1-3 with a 5.66 ERA, including 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA in three games this year. The White Sox are 5-2 all-time when facing Jackson.
For Chicago, the under is on stretches of 45-21-1 overall, 34-15-2 on the road, 19-9 in divisional games, 4-1 on Friday, 4-1 after a day off and 40-19-2 against winning teams. Conversely, Detroit carries “over” trends of 4-1-1 overall (all within the division), 8-2-1 at home, 13-4-1 on grass, 8-3-2 against right-handed starters, 4-0 when Jackson starts at home and 5-1 when Jackson faces A.L. Central rivals.
The under is 11-4 in this rivalry this year and 45-20-4 over the last seven-plus seasons when these teams meet in Detroit
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at St. Louis
Adam Wainwright goes for his 20th win tonight and looks to take advantage of Milwaukee's 1-4 record in its last 5 games as a road underdog between +150 and +200. St. Louis is the pick (-210) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-210)
Game 901-902: Arizona at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Buckner) 14.273; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 14.612
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-155); N/A
Game 903-904: Florida at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (VandenHurk) 15.882; Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.805
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+165); Over
Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McCutchen) 15.756; Cincinnati (Lehr) 16.888
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-135); Over
Game 907-908: Houston at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.457; NY Mets (Maine) 13.813
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-140); Over
Game 909-910: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.888; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.143
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 14.311; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.224
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-210); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-210); Under
Game 913-914: San Francisco at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.213; San Diego (Correia) 16.426
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Under
Game 915-916: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 16.069; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 13.833
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 14.739; Detroit (Jackson) 15.146
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 919-920: Toronto at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Purcey) 15.085; Baltimore (Berken) 15.337
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+135); Over
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 14.109; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.161
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Over
Game 923-924: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.783; Tampa Bay (Price) 14.366
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Under
Game 925-926: Kansas City at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Dinardo) 15.734; Minnesota (Manship) 16.232
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 927-928: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.831; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.140
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Under
Game 929-930: Texas at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (McCarthy) 15.323; Seattle (Snell) 16.260
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Under
NCAA
Pittsburgh at Louisville
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Louisville team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog. Pittsburgh is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2)
Game 107-108: Pittsburgh at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 94.395; Louisville 81.560
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 13; 51
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Under
Game 109-110: Utah State at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 79.005; BYU 110.976
Dunkel Line: BYU by 32; 68
Vegas Line: BYU by 23 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-23 1/2); Over
NHL
Detroit at St. Louis
The Red Wings look to build on their 19-7-4 record in their last 30 meetings in St. Louis. Detroit is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130)
Game 51-52: Florida at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.437; Chicago 12.636
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Over
Game 53-54: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.426; St. Louis 12.101
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under
Game 55-56: Philadelphia at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.873; Carolina 12.661
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-120); Over
Game 57-58: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.209; Pittsburgh 13.687
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Michael Cannon
Pittsburgh at LOUISVILLE +7
Take the points with Louisville tonight at home over Pitt.
Pitt is the better team but I have serious doubts about the defense.
The Panthers allowed a pedestrian NC State offense to amass 530 yards in last week’s 38-31 road loss. Now Pitt has to turn around on a short week and travel again.
Louisville isn’t nearly as explosive as they were in years past, but Pitt won’t be able to keep them in check and that will allow the Cardinals to stay close here.
Pitt is on an 0-13 ATS slide as a road chalk of six points or more. Dave Wannstedt is just 2-7 ATS as a chalk coming off a loss, including 0-4 SUATS if he’s a favorite of less than 10 points.
Louisville coach Steve Kragthorpe is 7-3 ATS as a home dog.
Take the points with Louisville as they stay within the number at home.
2♦ LOUISVILLE
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Angels at OAKLAND +110
I'm 3-1 on my last four complimentary selections after the Red Sox's 3-0 victory over Cleveland as a run-line play. I'm carrying that momentum into MLB's final weekend of the regular season as I back the A's tonight against the Angels.
I'm disregarding the impact Los Angeles starter Jered Weaver is going to have on this game, as manager Mike Scioscia is going to pull the right-hander after 40 of so pitches, just as John Lackey came out of Thursday's game early, in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
That means lesser pitchers such as Rafael Rodriguez, Kevin Jepsen, Jose Arredondo and Jason Bulger are going to get the bulk of the work on the mound against Oakland.
A's rookie Gio Gonzalez (6-6, 5.73 ERA) dominated the Angels in his last start, on Sept. 25, giving up just four hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings.
Again, Scioscia is going to be shuffling players into the lineup like it's spring training, meaning Gonzalez isn't going to be facing Los Angeles' regular lineup for more than an at-bat or two. Instead, the likes of Brandon Wood, Rob Quinlan, Chris Petit, Freddy Sandoval, Terry Evans and Bobby Wilson are going to be standing in the batter's box against the left-hander by the fourth inning.
Oakland went 17-10 in September, and is looking to end its season on a positive note. The Angels are focused on how to beat the Red Sox starting next week, and will be using this weekend as a chance to get their regulars energized for the ALDS. Go with the A's to get the victory tonight.
2♦ OAKLAND
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco +115 at SAN DIEGO
Delivered the FREE winner for my clients on Thursday as we told you Southern Mississippi was caught in a trap game as they went to play UAB and not only did the Blazers cover, but they won it outright. Today's comp winner is on the diamond as I go with the Giants in San Diego against the Padres.
San Francisco has Barry Zito on the hill today looking to finish off a resurgence of a season for himself. The Giants are the play today as we're getting plus-money with Zito.
Zito (10-13, 4.10) has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just once in his last 10 games, and that came on Saturday when the Cubs got him for four runs in four innings of a 6-2 loss. He's seen San Diego five times this season, holding the Padres to three runs or less three of the five outings, including September 9 when he gave up three runs in five innings.
Kevin Correia (12-10, 3.94) has been wonderful lately, going 2-0 in his last three outings with a 0.81 ERA. He's had back-to-back shutouts against the D'Backs and Pirates and is having a tough time letting go of the baseball season.
San Francisco has won four in a row overall but they've dropped three of four to the Padres. The Giants are on runs of 9-3 against right-handers, 4-1 in series openers, 5-2 when Zito faces a team on the road with a losing record and 7-3 on the highway against teams with a losing mark. San Diego is just 8-18 when coming in after an off-day and 2-5 in series openers.
This game means nothing in the standings, but it means something to the pitching staffs. Play Zito and the Giants to get the best of San Diego tonight.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Sports Gambling Hotline
Houston -140 at NY METS
We are on a 41-26-4 comp play run the last 71 days.
For Friday night, we will go with the Houston Astros as they take on the NY Mets.
Both teams have been stumbling to the finish line with the Astros just 3-13 their last 15 games, but the Mets aren't much better at 2-7 their last 9 at home.
The difference tonight is Wandy Rodriguez who is fresh off a win over Cincinnati in which he worked 6 innings of 2 run ball to improve to 14-11 for the season. With a chance to notch win # 15, look for the southpaw to step up big tonight against John Maine who just allowed 7 runs in 5 innings for a loss at Florida his last trip to the bump.
We will side with Houston as the road favorite as Mr. Rodriguez gets to win # 15.
Play on the 'Stros.
1♦ HOUSTON
Jeff Benton
Florida +160 at PHILADELPHIA
Missed badly with Thursday's free play on Southern Miss. I'll bounce back Friday, however, as I go back to the baseball diamond and take the plus money with the Marlins over the Phillies.
Obviously, the last couple of days have been tough on Florida, which saw its playoff hopes end thanks to an inconsistent three-week stretch in which the team went 8-9. Still, despite getting eliminated on Monday with a 4-0 loss to the Braves, the Marlins showed fight by helping to squash Atlanta’s playoff dreams with a pair of 5-4 wins on Tuesday and Wednesday (beating Tim Hudson and Javy Vazquez in the process).
Now the Marlins are in Philadelphia to wrap up what has been, by any measure, a successful season. Florida, which was picked by most prognosticators to finish fourth in the N.L. East – with only the crappy Nationals keeping them out of last place – has a solid 85-74 record and this young team on the rise should head into the offseason with a lot of confidence.
One of Florida’s key young components will be on the mound tonight, and that’s Rick VandenHurk, who pitched very well in September, posting a 3.43 ERA in four starts, all of which the Marlins won as an underdog (including a 7-6 victory over the Phillies in his most recent start on Sept. 23). While this game is otherwise meaningless to both teams, it’s very important to VandenHurk as he tries to make a positive impression on the Marlins’ front office, which is evaluating pitchers like VandenHurk as it begins preparations for the 2010 campaign. A strong start in Philly tonight will go a long way to helping VandenHurk earn a spot in Florida’s rotation next year.
The Marlins have a had a lot of success against Philadelphia recently, winning five of six meetings since early August, including a three-game sweep in Philly from Aug. 7-9. In fact, Florida is 5-1 at Citizens Bank Park this year. On top of that, the Marlins are on runs of 9-4 on the road, 7-1 as an underdog and 8-3 when playing on Friday. Throw in the fact that the Phillies are just going through the motions right now and are likely to sit several of their key offensive players, and VandenHurk and the Fish are live ‘dogs here
3♦ FLORIDA
rank Jordan
Pittsburg U vs. Louisville
Play: Pittsburg U -6.5
Pittsburgh is 3-1 and having played 2 games on the road is 1-1 in those games. Louisville is struggled out of the game with a 1-2 record in their first 3 games, but that one win did come in their only home game. Look for Pittsburgh to win their second road game as they head into Louisville and beat up on the Cardinals. Play Pittsburgh
Utah State vs. BYU
Play: BYU -24
Utah State is 1-2 and winless on the road as they take on instate rival BYU. BYU is 3-1 and has earned a spot in the top 25 at the 20th spot. Look for BYU to feed off the crowd as they put up points early and often on their way to an easy win at home. Play BYU
Tony Mathews
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Selection: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
The Toronto Blue Jays will use starting pitcher David Purcey. David Purcey has been pitching well as of late. In fact, David Purcey has a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see David Purcey pitching another good game today.
The Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Jason Berken. Jason Berken has had big pitching problems as of late. In fact, Jason Berken has a 10.38 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Jason Berken giving up many runs once again today.
While you should try avoid laying 1.5 Runs in baseball, we don't mind doing it in this case as the Baltimore Orioles are a terrible team. In fact, the Baltimore Orioles are 17-41 in their last 58 overall games.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 meetings against the Baltimore Orioles, and should be able to get another blowout win tonight!
Take the Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
JR TIPS
Angels at Athletics
Jered Weaver will be be most likely the Angeles Game 2 starter of a division series against Boston and Weaver will make one final tuneup before the postseason tonight when the Angels go on the road and try to hand the Oakland Athletics a fifth straight loss. Los Angeles' pitcher Weaver (15-8, 3.84 ERA) left his last outing Friday against Oakland with back stiffness and is expected to be on a pitch count tonight. Weaver will be sharp as he will try to get everything mechanically sound going into the playoffs. The right-hander fell to 0-3 with a 4.66 ERA in his last three starts after allowing two runs over six innings in the outing against Oakland in a 3-0 loss and fell to 0-1 with a 4.02 ERA in three starts against the Athletics this year. Oakland's finished 3rd in the majors in the month of September with a ecord of 17-10, winning two of three last weekend in Anaheim although Oakland has dropped four straight after a 4-2 loss in Seattle on Thursday.The A's are 1-5 at home against the Angels, hitting .219 with 35 strikeouts in those games.Rookie Gio Gonzalez (6-6, 5.73) will make his second start of the year against Los Angeles after turning in an outstanding effort in the first one as he yielded four hits over 6 1/3 innings to outduel Weaver on Sept. 25th. Weaver has doiminated the Oakland hitters all year as he will be sound tonight getting ready for the playoffs while this is the second time the Angeles will see the rookie Gonzales as the left-hander is 2-4 with a 6.85 ERA in nine home starts. The A's have lost 4 straight struggling to score and Jeff Weaver isn't the pitcher they wan't to see to help their offense.
TAKE LA ANGELES-125
Charlie
Astros -140 @ Mets
No road venue has been kind to the Houston Astros during the second half of the season, but they’ll hope for better luck in a stadium they’ve never visited. The Astros try to win consecutive road games for the first time since mid-July tonight at Citi Field, where the Mets return to their new home one final time hoping to erase memories of being swept by the majors’ worst team, Astros win-140 with Wandy Rodriguez on the hill.
JIM FEIST
CHICAGO WHITE SOX / DETROIT TIGERS
TAKE: UNDER
This is an excellent park for pitchers here in Detroit, and the weather is beginning to get cooler at night in the Northeast, a factor that helps pitchers and hinders bats. Chicago comes to town with a weak offense, one ending the season on a 26-11-1 run under the total. Starter Jake Peavy hasn't contributed much because of injuries, but he has made two straight impressive starts, allowing 3 runs in 12 innings with 13 Ks. He should enjoy throwing in this park against a Detroit offense that is 15th in baseball in runs scored. Play the White Sox/Tigers Under the total.
BIG AL
Houston at New York
This has been a lost season for Maine, as he has been on the shelf most of the way, and his record this season is 6-6, and his ERA is 4.72. Maine will be making his 3rd start after coming back from a shoulder injury, and he allowed seven runs on seven hits in 4 2-3 innings last Saturday. He'll be opposed by lefty Wandy Rodriguez, who has a 2-1 record with a 3.47 ERA in his four career starts vs. New York. This has been a breakout season for Wandy, as he has an ERA of 2.97 to go with his 14- 11 record. And he should have a relatively easy time of it tonight, as New York has won just 10 of its last 37 games.
PLAY HOUSTON
EZWINNERS
Utah State Aggies @ BYU Cougars
Play: Utah State Aggies +23.5
The Utah State Aggies are an undervalued team. The Aggie's quarterback Diondre Borel has shown playmaking ability and running back Robert Turbin is averaging 8.7 yards per carry. Utah State has the weapons to put points on the board against the BYU defense. Utah State is on a 15-6 run against the spread in their last 21 games and BYU is only 5-8 against the spread in their last thirteen games as a favorite. Take the points.
HENTAI SPORTS
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction : Seattle Mariners
Injuries played a part in Texas not being able to challenge Boston for the A.L. Wild Card down the stretch. The Rangers clearly just want this season to be over with. They get a Mariners team that is playing every meaningless game down the stretch just as if it was mid-July. The M’s just swept Oakland at home and I expect them to continue their winning ways tonight behind Snell. The Mariners have won 5 of his last 8 starts and they are an impressive 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 21-8 in their last 29 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Rangers have lost each of McCarthy’s last 3 starts and are just 2-10 in his last 12 starts as an underdog. Plus, they are only 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win.