Tom Freese
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Under
Colorado is 14-5 UNDER their last 19 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of over 60%. Colorado is 5-1 UNDER vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Rockies are 9-2 UNDER in the last 11 starts made by Ubaldo Jimenez. Los Angeles is 10-4-1 UNDER after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 9-3-1 UNDER their last 13 home games vs. righty starters. The Dodgers are 8-3-3 UNDER in Game One of a series and they are 6-0 UNDER their last 6 games with the Rockies. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
VEGAS EXPERTS
Pittsburgh at Louisville
Last year, Pitt snapped a seven-game losing streak to Louisville thanks to four Cardinals turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Looking for the ball to bounce the other way this time around as the Panthers are in the 2nd of BB road games and just 37-61 ATS off a SU loss since 1992. They are also 18-38 ATS when they fail to rush for 100 yards in the previous game. Pitt has lost three straight at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.
Play on: Louisville
Randle the Handle
Chicago -1½ +1.96 over Florida
Early afternoon action sees the powerful looking Blackhawks facing the Jay Bouwmeester-less Florida Panthers in a game that’ll be played overseas in Helsinki. The Blackhawks are simply loaded with talent and they added a couple of very key ingredients to its roster, most notably, penalty killer extraordinaire, John Madden. Madden not only kills penalties better than anyone, he is also capable of 20 goals and you’ll usually find him playing and frustrating the opposition’s top line. Add another year to all this young and tremendous talent and that makes Chicago even more dangerous. The news out of Finland is that many of the Panthers have come down with the flu so get on this one early. Even without the flu, the Panthers would be hard-pressed to keep this close. Olli Jokinen is gone and now so is Jay Bouwmeester. That leaves the top guys being David Booth, Michael Frolik and Nathan Horton. Since the 1995-96 season, Florida has missed out on the postseason 10 of 12 times and they’re now on their ninth head coach in Peter DeBoer. On top of Florida’s frustration on the ice, the Panthers are going through even more turmoil off of it. Team owner Alan Cohen wants to sell the team that has reportedly lost more than $100 million since his ownership group purchased the Panthers in 2001. Oh, they also do not have a GM and their off-season acquisitions were Jordan Leopold, Ville Koistinen, Steven Reinprecht, Jeff Taffe and Scott Clemmensen. All the Panthers troubles will trickle right down to the ice beginning with this back-to-back opening series against a serious contender. Play: Chicago -1½ +1.96 (Risking 2 units).
St. Louis +1.40 over Detroit
This one goes in Sweden at 3:00 PM. The talk around hockey circles is that the Red Wings dynasty is over because of aging players and a lack of strong goaltending but that kind of talk is extremely premature. Yeah, the Wings lost to Pittsburgh in the playoffs last year but Detroit was without Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Holmstrom, Rafalski and Cleary and that’s the only reason they lost. Detroit still has some of the best players in the league and they’ll be very tough to beat as always. However, in this opener, the Blue Notes are the choice because of a nice price on them and because they can definitely win this one. In fact, they might even be better than the Red Wings. Remember, the Blue Notes were amazing in the second half last season, going a league-best 25-9-7 and grabbing the sixth seed. Also remember that the Blues were missing Erik Johnson, the first player drafted overall in 2006, Eric Brewer played in just 28 games and Paul Kariya played in 11 games after registering 15 points in those first 11 games. That trio is ready to start the season and when you throw in emerging stars T.J. Oshie, Patrick Berglund, David Perron and David Backes to the equation you have an extremely dangerous and talented squad. The Blues also have solid goaltending. Keep a close eye on these Blues because prices like this on them are not going to last long. Overlay. Play: St. Louis +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Utah State/BYU OVER 64
BYU is going to get its points with stars Max Hall, Harvey Unga, and Dennis Pitta leading the way, but the Aggies are improved and I believe they have the ability to light up the scoreboard tonight as well with their new spread attack, led by talented QB Diondre Borel. BYU has played to the over in 3 straight and the Aggies have played to the over in each of their 2 lines games this season. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Aggies last 4 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater and 4-0 in the Cougars last 4 games as a favorite. Take the Over for 1 Unit.
LT Profits
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds have enjoyed playing the spoiler role lately, but they will have a hard time getting motivated for the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates in this season-ending series, so do not expect much scoring tonight from a couple of teams that just want to go home now.
The Pirates did just take two out of three from the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, but they are still averaging just 3.49 runs per game on the road this season while batting a poor .234 as a team. As for the Reds, even with their recent hot streak, they are still hitting just .246 at home vs. right-handed pitching.
Young Daniel McCutchen had not pitched badly in his five starts for the Pirates, allowing three runs or less three times and exactly four earned runs in each of the other two starts. McCutchen made his Major League debut vs. these Reds on August 31, and he promptly recorded a Quality Start, allowing three runs on five hits with five strikeouts in six innings.
Now Justin Lehr has been erratic for Cincinnati, but he had his moments, such as allowing three runs or less in his first four starts in a Reds uniform. He has not been pitching that well lately, but he could easily regain his good form tonight vs. a Pittsburgh lineup that closely resembles a AAA team.
Factor in that these teams want to get this game and this series over and done with as soon as possible and the Under becomes an even stronger play.
Pick: Pirates/Reds Under 9
Rocketman
San Francisco @ San Diego
Play: San Diego
San Francisco is scoring only 3.7 runs per game on the road this year. San Diego bullpen has a super nice 2.82 ERA at home this year. Barry Zito is 10-13 with a 4.10 ERA overall, 4-7 with a 4.30 ERA on the road and 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA his last 3 starts. Kevin Correia is 12-10 with a 3.89 ERA overall this year, 4-5 with a 3.63 ERA at home and 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA his last 3 starts. San Diego is 16-8 at home vs San Francisco the past 3 years including a perfect 6-0 at home this year. Zito is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA overall vs San Diego since 1997 while Correia is 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA overall vs San Francisco since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
GREG SHAKER
Pittsburgh Panthers at Louisville Cardinals
Play: Louisville +7 -120
There are some 7's out there and if you can get it, you certainly should or buy up to that number at -120 only as I have done. Louisville is not as bad as their record would indicate battling Utah very well last week and coming close to beating Kentucky on the road. The Panthers showed us last week that the road this year could be a problem for this squad with NC State dominating them in a big way on 530 offensive yards. The Pitt D is just scary right now and teams that don't play good from that side of the line are not worthy of laying this kind of number. Actually, the Panthers have had serious problems in this slot for a very long time. Heads up on this stat. Pittsburgh is 0-13 ATS the last 13 times they have been a road favorite of more than 6 Points. BINGO!! The Cardinals have always been a good home proposition and under their current head coach they are 7-3 ATS as a Home Dog. This is a winnable game for the Cardinals tonight and the possibility of them doing so outright is good indeed. However, these points look wonderful.