Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 22,2010

JIM FEIST COMP

CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS / ST. LOUIS BLUES
PLAY: CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

The first-place Black Hawks are playing, winning 4 in a row. Chicago went back to a conventional lineup of 12 forwards and six defensemen after dressing seven defensemen Monday night in a 3-2 victory over St. Louis, an came away with a 2-1 win over Vancouver. Last place St. Louis is struggling, riding a 3-game skid with a very poor penalty killing unit. A great price on the first-place visitors, Play the Black Hawks!

Tom Freese

Flames at Blue Jackets
Prediction: Under

Calgary is 4-2 UNDER their last 6 games this year. The Flames are 52-20-6 UNDER their last 78 games and they are 35-17-4 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record. Calgary is 38-18-3 UNDER after scoring 2 or less goals in their last game. The Flames are 29-14-8 UNDER their last 51 games as underdogs of +110 to +150. Columbus is 4-1 UNDER this year and they are 6-1 UNDER their last 6 games with the Flames. Columbus is 16-7 UNDER their last 23 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. The Blue Jackets are 16-6 UNDER their last 22 games with Calgary.

SEAN MURPHY

South Florida @ Cincinnati
PICK: Over 48

Last Friday night we cashed in with the over as Cincinnati upended Louisville 35-27. That game featured 45 first half points, and surpassed the total with about 10 minutes to spare.

I still don't believe the oddsmakers have a proper handle on just how good this Cincinnati offense is right now. The Bearcats have scored 29, 45, and 35 points over their last three games, and they've done so against some reasonably tough competition in Oklahoma, Miami-Ohio, and Louisville. Okay, maybe Miami-Ohio isn't exactly a stellar opponent, but the other two are solid.

Zach Collaros has quietly been one of the most efficient passers in the nation this season, completing over 63% of his passes for 1,455 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He'll improve on those numbers against a South Florida secondary that has played well, but remains largely untested.

South Florida has done little to nothing offensively over the last two weeks, producing a grand total of 15 points in losses to Syracuse and West Virginia. They've obviously put a great deal of focus on the offensive side of the ball in practice this week, and you can be sure that we'll see some adjustments made.

Neither of these defenses are what you would consider elite-level. South Florida had to make significant changes on that side of the football entering this season, and while they've held up pretty well, they also haven't faced the toughest of schedules.

The Bulls allowed only 20 points against West Virginia last week, but the Mountaineers were able to do whatever they wanted on offense, and were only limited by conservative play-calling in the second half. WVU QB Geno Smith was near perfect in that game, completing 24-of-31 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns. That doesn't bode well for the Bulls as they prepare to face Collaros and the Bearcats explosive passing game on Friday night.

Cincinnati has really only faced one dual-threat QB this season - that being Russell Wilson of N.C. State. He was able to carve the Bearcats up for 333 passing yards and three touchdowns. South Florida has a mobile QB of its own in B.J. Daniels, who is looking to get his season untracked after a tough start.

Look for Cincinnati to set the tone early with a couple of quick scores, and for South Florida to contribute just enough offense to help this one over the posted total. Take the over.

LARRY NESS

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Texas Rangers

The Yankees used a five-run eighth inning to give them a 6-5 comeback win in Game 1 of this series. However, the Rangers then outscored New York 25-5 in taking the next three games. New York staved off elimination in Game 5, as Sabathia allowed just two runs in six innings while the Yankees hit three solo HRs in a 7-2 win. Now, it's back to Arlington, with the Rangers needing just one win to advance to the franchise's first-ever World Series. Working in Texas' favor is that 24 of the previous 30 teams which have taken 3-1 leads in LCS series (since it went to a seven-game format) have advanced to play in the World Series. The Rangers also know that even if they lose Game 6, they have Cliff Lee and his 7-0 record (1.26 ERA) in eight postseason starts (teams are 8-0) going for them in Game 7. Working against them is the Yankees mystique plus the troubling fact that the Rangers are just 1-7 all-time in postseason home games. So what's up in Game 6? It's a pitching rematch of Game 2, in which Phil Hughes was shelled and Colby Lewis was brilliant. Hughes had a solid season going 18-4 with a 4.19 ERA (team was 20-9 in his starts) and in his first-ever postseason start in Game 3 of the ALDS vs the Twins, allowed four hits and struck out six in seven scoreless innings of New York’s 6-1 series-clincher. Hughes had allowed only three hits in 15.1 scoreless innings his three previous games at Rangers Ballpark but in Game 2, allowed 10 hits and seven ERs in just four innings. Meanwhile, Colby Lewis came up big. The right-hander spent the past two seasons pitching in Japan but gave the Rangers an excellent first half of the season in 2010. He then went a nine-start stretch (July 21-September 5) with an 0-7 record (team was 1-8) while posting a 5.07 ERA. He "righted the ship" down the stretch, going 3-1 with a 3.26 ERA over his last five starts (team was 3-2) and pitched well in Game 3 of the ALDS vs Tampa, although the Rays lost 6-3. He allowed just two hits and no runs in five innings. His effort in Game 2 was pretty solid. He allowed six hits and just two ERs over 5.2 innings. That gives him 10.2 innings of postseason baseball, allowing eights and just two ERs (1.69 ERA). Lee or no Lee, the Rangers sure don't want to find themselves in a Game 7. I don't trust Hughes and I'm going with the Rangers.

EZWINNERS

Cincinnati Bearcats -8.5

Cincinnati has also dominated this rivalry in recent years as they are 6-0 ATS the last six meetings. The Bearcats are on a nice roll having covered the spread in three straight games and they are getting very good play out of quarterback Zach Collaros. Collaros is starting to look like the quarterback that he was last season when he stepped in for the injured Tony Pike. Collaros has thrown seventeen touchdowns and and only three interceptions this year and he has the Cincinnati offense rolling. The same cannot be said for the USF offense. The Bulls have not scored an offensive touchdown the last two weeks. USF only scored nine points at home against Syracuse and just six points on the road at West Virginia in both losses. Quarterback B.J Daniels has struggled with the new offense as new head coach Skip Holtz is trying to make him a pocket passer. Daniels has thrown 10 interceptions and only has four touchdown passes this season as his accuracy and decision making have been very poor. The Bulls are only 8-11 against the spread on the Big East road and I don't see them turning things around in this game. Lay the points.

Bobby Maxwell

S. Florida at CINCINNATI (-8)

For my comp winner, it seems like a narrow loss to Oklahoma has turned around the season for Cincinnati. Since that loss back on Sept. 25, the Bearcats have won back-to-back games, blowing out Miami of Ohio and then taking down Louisville in a weeknight game last week. I’m looking for much of the same tonight and expect Cincinnati to score a blowout win over South Florida in this one.

The Bearcats took down Louisville on the road last week, winning 35-27 as 2 ½-point road favorites. And that came on the heels of a 45-3 blowout of Miami of Ohio as 19 ½-point home favorites. It looks like they took a lot from that 31-29 loss to Oklahoma on Sept. 25, covering as 14-point home underdogs. They have been lighting it up since.

Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros threw a career-high five TDs against Louisville and RB Isaiah Pead rushed for 100 yards for the third straight game. And the young Bearcats defense will be out to attack South Florida QB B.J. Daniels who has thrown 10 INTs this season, more than twice as many as any other QB in the Big East. Daniels doesn’t look comfortable sitting in the pocket trying to pick apart defenses.

The Bearcats put up 38 points a game at home and run the ball for an amazing 267.7 yards per game. On the opposite side, South Florida scores just 10 when they take to the road and they allow a whopping 29 and 360.5 yards per contest.

Cincinnati has won the last four matchups in this rivalry, cashing each time. Last year in South Florida, the Bearcats took a 34-17 win as one-point road favorites. Last time they were in Cincinnati, the Bearcats scored a 24-10 home win as 1 ½-point dogs. Going back to 2005, Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS against the Bulls.

South Florida is just 1-4 ATS in Big East games, 4-9 ATS in October contests and 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Cincinnati is on ATS surges of 9-4 in Big East battles, 20-7-2 after a spread-cover and 5-0 in October games.

Lay the points and expect to see Cincinnati convert some South Florida turnovers. Play the Bearcats tonight.

4♦ CINCINNATI

Karl Garrett

N.Y. Yankees at TEXAS

Free play winner from the G-Man last night on the Phillies-Giants over the total, and another baseball winner in store tonight.

G-Man sticking with the trends and playing this ALCS Game 6 to head over the total.

With Wednesday night's over, the high has come through the last 3 games in this series, and is 4-0-1 overall in the 5 games played.

Dating back to last season, these teams have played over in 7 of the last 9 meetings, and that includes the one push to the total back in Game 2 when Hughes and Lewis opposed each other.

New York is on a 7-1-2 over clip their last 10 postseason road games, and with the added pressure on a couple of untested hurlers in Phil Hughes and Colby Lewis, I see the sticks making plenty of contact, and the scoreboard lighting up with enough crooked digits to take us over the total one more time.

Play the over on Friday night in Arlington.

3♦ OVER

Joel Tyson

N.Y. Yankees (-110) at TEXAS

Now your comp play for Friday: being one game away from your first-ever World Series, and actually winning that one game to get you to your first-ever World Series are two totally different things, and while the Rangers did well to take 2 of 3 in the Bronx, they have not put the spike through the defending champions hearts yet.

I don't think it will happen on Friday, as the New York lumber did recieve a wake up call on Wednesday, and some of the more quiet bats in the Yankees attack did make some noise for the Bombers.

The Rangers are just 5-11 in Colby Lewis' last 16 starts, and after winning in Game Two over Phil Hughes, I just get the feeling things will not be the same as they were on Saturday.

Texas is on the brink, but nailing down that 4th and final win is very tough to do when you have never done it before.

Too much pressure tonight for the Rangers, take the Yankees to force a 7th game on Saturday.

4♦ N.Y. YANKEES

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Texas Rangers +100

The Yankees did well to extend the series, but I like Texas to march into the World Series with a win on its home field tonight. Hughes was shelled in his Game 2 start at Texas, giving up 7 runs in 4 innings. That really doesn't come as a huge surprise considering his road struggles throughout the season (4.25 road ERA). Hughes has often relied on the best run support in baseball to win games, but that lineup has been dealt a major blow due to the injury of Mark Teixeira. The Rangers are hitting .286 and scoring 5.3 runs/game at home this season, and I'm confident they'll be able to get to Hughes. Then, Colby Lewis, who is sporting an ERA of 3.32 at home this season, should take care of the rest. The Rangers have won 6 of their last 8 against the Yankees, including 4 of their last 5 in Texas. Bet the Rangers.

Dave Price

1 Unit on New York Yankees -109

The Rangers have been far from invincible on their home field in the playoffs, losing 3 of 4. I know they were able to take care of business with Lewis on the mound in Game 2, but I'm just not sold. The Rangers are just 5-11 in Lewis' last 16 starts and 3-14 in his last 17 starts when pitching on 5 days of rest. Plus, he has a career ERA of 5.90 in 4 starts against the Yankees. The Yankees are 24-11 in Hughes' last 35 starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. Look for the Yankees to extend this series behind a bounce back performance from Hughes.

Ben Burns

Calgary Flames @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets

The Blue Jackets have dominated Calgary, here at Columbus. With the schedule in their favor, they've got a solid shot at winning their third straight game. The Jackets started out 0-3. They won at Minnesota on 10/16. They returned home and, after a few days off, knocked off Anaheim on Wednesday. They had last night off and come in well-rested.

The Flames are off a loss at Detroit last night. They're now playing their third game in the past four nights. Note that Calgary is 10-18 (-6.6) the past 28 times it played the second of back to back games.

The Jackets are 13-5 when hosting the Flames including 3-1 the last four. All things considered, the price seems reasonable. Consider Columbus