Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 24

Jack Jones

South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati -10½

While the Bearcats have been blown out three times this season, all three of those games came against quality opponents in Ohio State, Memphis and Miami, and two of them came on the road. After that gauntlet of a schedule, playing teams like SMU and South Florida have to feel like a breeze for the Bearcats. I look for them to make easy work of the Bulls at home in this one.

The Bearcats got back in the win column last week with a 41-3 win at hapless SMU. It outgained the Mustangs 508-276 for the game. The defense put forth their best effort of the season in limiting SMU to just a field goal while forcing four turnovers. They held the Mustangs scoreless after the first quarter and cruised to a 38-point victory.

Now Cincinnati returns home, where it has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country. The Bearcats have gone 5-1 or better at home in five of the past six seasons. They went 6-0 in 2008, 6-0 in 2009, 5-1 in 2011, 6-1 in 2012 and 5-1 in 2013. So, in those five seasons combined, they sported a 28-3 record at home. They are a completely different animal inside the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium.

Despite getting five of their first seven games at home this season, the South Florida Bulls have been blown out by double-digits three times. Their only three wins have come against Western Carolina, Connecticut and Tulsa. One of those teams is an FCS opponent, while the other two are among the worst teams in the FBS. They also only won those three games all by 8 points or fewer.

This Cincinnati offense is putting up big numbers in 2014, averaging 34.3 points and 443.0 yards per game. Gunner Kiel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,853 yards with 19 touchdowns against six interceptions. He should have his way with a USF defense that is giving up 29.0 points and 418.3 yards per game.

I just don’t believe that South Florida has the offensive firepower to keep up with Kiel and company in this one. The Bulls are averaging just 21.7 points and 311.3 yards per game to rank 120th out of 128 teams in total offense. That’s really bad when you consider the opponents they have faced thus far are giving up averages of 28.4 points and 400 yards per game.

I believe this line has been set lower than it should be because USF beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home last year. However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Bearcats should have won, but gave it away. They outgained the Bulls 350-241 for the game, but the Bulls got two non-offensive touchdowns on four Cincinnati turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Don’t expect the Bearcats to make the same kind of mistakes at home this time around.

Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games off a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bulls are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. South Florida is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with South Florida.

Jim Feist

Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Pick: Utah Jazz

Phoenix overachieved last season and it's hard to see this group getting fired up to finish out the preseason. In Jeff Hornacek's first year as the Suns coach last season, Phoenix was the NBA's most improved team. The Suns improved by 23 games, finishing with 48 wins Phoenix plays its third straight road game here and comes off a loss at the Clippers allowing 108 points and 49&% shooting. Phoenix forward T.J. Warren suffered a thumb injury in Tuesday's win against the Lakers and won't play. That game against the Lakers was in OT, so this team is more interested in getting home than playing all out tonight. Utah (5-2) is a hungry young team that has had a strong preseason, off an easy win at Oklahoma City. Utah's Enes Kanter 6-foot-11 center scored 27 points, made 12 of 17 shots and pulled down seven rebounds to help the Jazz defeat the Thunder 105-91 in preseason action. Trey Burke had 23 points, Alec Burks scored 15 and Derrick Favors had 12 points and 15 rebounds for the Jazz, who are 5-2 in the preseason under new coach Quin Snyder after finishing 25-57 last season. They are home from a 4-game road trip and have won their only 2 home preseason games by 19 and 13 points.

Jesse Schule

Oregon vs. California
Play: Under 79½

The Oregon Ducks will be in Santa Clara Friday night, taking on a much improved California team. Both these teams rank in the Top 10 in the nation in scoring, and because of that bettors are expecting this to be a high scoring contest. The total for this game opened at 77 (already sky high), but has been bet up as high as 80. That's an awful lot of points for a game that has the potential to be a one-sided affair.

Cal has scored an awful lot of points against soft defenses, putting up 60 versus Washington State, 59 versus Colorado, and 45 in a loss at Arizona. They lost at home to the Washington Huskies by a score of 31-7 two weeks ago, and Oregon's defense is at least as capable as Washington's.

These teams play every year, and six of the last seven meetings have gone under the total. None of the last 10 games between these two teams has seen a combined 80 points. None of Oregon's seven games so far this season have seen 80 points scored.

California has only seen 80+ points in one of it's four home games, and of course those were all at Memorial Stadium in Berkley, while this game is in Stanta Clara at the home of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.

Sam Martin

South Florida at Cincinnati Bearcats
Prediction: South Florida

Cincinnati Bearcats had no problems last week dispatching the offensive anemic SMU Mustangs in a 41-3 blowout (easily covering as 12.5-point favorites). We backed the Bearcats in that win at our highest 25* rating, as we loved the matchup of Cincy's high-octane offense against a SMU team that has had massive issues finding the endzone all year long. Different matchup this week, however, and we'll back South Florida with the generous points to stay close to Cincy.

Too many points for South Florida to be getting here, especially considering how they play when their running game gets going. Such was the case last week and they put up 38 points in a road win and ATS cover at Tulsa. Bearcats have already given up 299 or more rushing yards three times this season, and are allowing a whopping 5.3 yards per carry this season. Don't think they can cover this big of a number with defensive numbers like that - at least now that they are playing a "real" offense.

Dr Bob

SOUTH ALABAMA (-14) 36 Troy 18

South Alabama has made themselves a contender for the Sun Belt title with 3 consecutive wins since losing their conference opener to Georgia Southern and the Jaguars should add to their win tally tonight against a horrible Troy team that has no redeeming qualities aside from not turning the ball over much. The Trojans have been 0.9 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.2 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and an even worse 1.4 yppl worse than average defensively (6.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average team). South Alabama has a bad offensive rating (0.9 yppl worse than average) because they struggle throwing the ball but the Jaguars have averaged 37 points in their last 3 games against bad defensive teams that collectively rate the same as Troy’s defense. My math model projects 36 points on 6.6 yards per rushing play (even without leading rusher Jay Jones) and a decent 6.0 yards per pass play for the Jaguars in this game. The strength of South Alabama is a defense that’s allowed just 22 points and 5.4 yards per play this season. That unit is actually just average after adjusting for schedule strength but an average defense is very good by Sun Belt standards and is much better than Troy’s offense, which is projected to score just 18 points on 312 yards and 4.4 yppl. I’ll lean with South Alabama minus the points.

CINCINNATI (-10½) 40 South Florida 27

South Florida head coach Willie Taggart is now 20-4-1 ATS in road games as a head coach, including 20-2-1 in his last 23 after failing to cover the first two road games of his career at Western Kentucky. While that team trend is certainly noteworthy, it is not as significant as a 107-39-2 ATS home momentum situation that favors Cincinnati based on the Bearcats’ 41-3 spanking of SMU last Saturday. Cincinnati has a potent attack that has averaged 6.7 yards per play when starting quarterback Gunner Kiel is in the game (against teams that would allow just 5.5 yppl to an average team). South Florida is a bit below average defensively and the Bulls’ weakness in defending the pass (7.1 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.8 yppp against an average team) will be magnified by a pass-heavy Cincy attack (59% pass plays). Kiel should put up really big numbers in this game and the Bearcats should top their 34.3 points per game average.

South Florida’s offense has averaged only 19.3 points and 5.0 yards per play against FBS competition that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team but the Bulls have been a less poor 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively when starting quarterback Mike White is in the game and the Bulls’ should produce better than average offensive numbers against a Cincy defense that’s allowed 34.5 points per game on 530 yards at 6.9 yppl (to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team). Those numbers are skewed a bit by the 635 yards at 11.0 yppl they allowed to Miami a couple of weeks ago but the Bearcats gave up an average of 32.5 points and 6.1 yppl in two games against teams with offensive ratings similar to South Florida’s offensive rating (Miami-Ohio and Memphis). My math model projects 6.0 yppl for South Florida and overall the math favors Cincy by 11 points with a total of 67½ points. I’ll add a couple of points for the favorable situation and lean with Cincy. However, the Over looks like the better play here.

Oregon (-18) 49 California 31

Oregon is not as good defensively as they were for more than a decade under former defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, as the Ducks have allowed an average of 450 yards at 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team. A barely better than average defense overall and allowing 63.4% completions is not going to be good enough to keep the explosive Cal attack from scoring a lot of points. The Bears run the same offense that Washington State used to score 31 points at 6.2 yppl against the Ducks in Eugene earlier this month and Cal is more efficient offensively than the Cougars are. Jared Goff leads a Golden Bears attack that has averaged 39.3 points and 485 yards per game at 6.5 yards per play against 6 FBS opponents that would combine to allow just 5.4 yppl to an average offense and Cal is projected to rack up 493 yards at 6.2 yppl in this game after adjusting the Bears’ passing rating down 0.2 yards per pass play for the absence of WR Trevor Davis, who’s 11.6 yards per pass targeted at him is better than the 9.7 ypt averaged by the rest of the wide receivers. Davis also has two kick return touchdowns (both against Washington State) and I’ve adjusted the Bears’ special teams rating to reflect his absence in the return game. The Bears are likely to fall short of their 39 point average but they are likely to tally more than 30 points against the Ducks’ mediocre defense.

The problem for the Bears is that Oregon’s prolific offense (43.6 points per game on 528 yards at 7.5 yards per play against an average schedule of defenses) should flirt with 50 points in this game. Cal’s defense is actually better than given credit for, as the Bears have been 0.8 yards per rushing play better than average (4.2 yprp allowed to FBS teams that would average 5.0 yprp against an average team) and 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average (7.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average team). Despite component numbers that would add up to an average defense the Bears overall numbers have been 0.4 yards per play worse than average (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl) because their opponents have averaged 55.5 pass plays and only 35.3 rushing plays per game. That distribution would make most defenses look worse than they actually are and the Bears’ defensive numbers are also skewed by one really bad game against Washington State in which they allowed 812 yards at 8.6 yards per play). The Bears have been better than average defensively in 3 of their 6 games and the absence of top tackler S Griffin Piatt last week (and for the rest of the season) is offset by the return of the Cal’s most talented defensive back Stefan McClure, who missed 4 games but returned last week against UCLA (Cal allowed 6.4 yppl to a UCLA team that would average 6.5 yppl on the road against an average defense). Cal’s defense is actually decent but Oregon is projected to run 81.5 plays (11 more plays than they average), which is why the Ducks are projected to gain more yards (611) and score more points than they average.

Cal can compete in this game if they don’t turn the ball over but Oregon is much better from the line of scrimmage and the Bears’ edge in special teams is gone with Davis sidelined with a head injury. It’s also likely that Marcus Mariota is not going to turn it over given his 0 interceptions for the season and just 4 picks in 20 games since the start of last season, so the Bears will have to play their best offensively or hope for a positive fumble differential to keep this game close for 4 quarters. Overall, my math model favors Oregon by just 14½ points (with a total of 79½ points) on what I’m considering a neutral field (this game is being played about an hour drive south of Berkeley at Levi’s Stadium). The line is too high even if I give Cal zero home field advantage but the Bears apply to a negative 34-119-2 ATS situation that is based on last week’s heartbreaking 34-36 loss to UCLA. That angle negates the line value favoring Cal and I’ll pass on this game.

Bob Balfe

San Francisco Giants -120

This ball park is electric. Game 3 is so crucial that in most 7 game series in any sport the winner of game 3 usually wins the series. San Francisco has experienced hitters and a pitcher in Tim Hudson that is amped up to finally have reached the World Series. The average fan can’t see how intelligent this Giants team is, but the way they play the game truly shows how experienced they are and I believe can win this series in the next three games at home. These next 48 hours are going to tell us a lot. I am still sticking with this Giants.

Jimmy Boyd

Troy Trojans +14½

The Trojans are showing some decent value here catching two touchdowns plus the hook against a South Alabama team that they have beat outright each of the last two years. The Jaguars aren't a good enough team to be laying this many points against most FBS squads. While Troy is just 1-6, we have seen South Alabama struggle against similarly bad teams. They beat a Kent State team that is now 1-6 by just 10-points and last week barely squeaked by with a 3-point win over a 1-6 Georgia State squad. The public has been all over South Alabama in this one and the line has barely moved, giving a good indication that the sharps are pounding the Trojans.

South Alabama's leading rusher Jay Jones is questionable with a leg injury and hot having him on the field would definitely be a big blow for the Jaguars. Jones has rushed for 393 yards with an impressive 4.7 yards/carry. His loss becomes even more important when you factor in that South Alabama is not a good passing team. The Jaguars rank just 86th in the country through the air, averaging a mere 209.8 ypg.

Another key here is that South Alabama's defense has not performed well against the run. The Jaguards are giving up 168.3 ypg on the ground and that's with giving up a combined 94 yards rushing in their two games against Kent State and Idaho. Just a couple weeks ago we saw Troy put up 360 rushing yards on New Mexico State, so there's plenty of reason to expect their offense to have some success.

One other aspect here that can't be overlooked is that South Alabama could have a difficult time giving Troy their full attention with two huge road games against a couple of the top Sun Belt contenders in Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas State on deck.

The fact that Troy gave up 53 points and finished with a -3 turnover margin in their last game against Appalachian State also sets the Trojans up in a favorable spot. Troy is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 42 or more points.

Nelly

Troy at South Alabama
Pick: Troy +14.5

In two seasons at the FBS level South Alabama is 0-2 vs. Troy, although the Jaguars covered on the road last season in a 34-33 defeat, allowing a touchdown in the final seconds after taking the lead late in the game. Troy is a former Sun Belt powerhouse but 2014 has been a difficult season. After getting into the win column two weeks ago, the Trojans were blown out at home last week against Appalachian State. This game follows homecoming for South Alabama and a defensive-oriented Jaguars squad has had trouble scoring points, even after putting up 30 last week in a narrow win. These schools are just 170 miles apart so there may be some extra intensity and this is a big spread for a game that was incredibly tight last season. Troy had four turnovers last week and the game got away early with a couple of big plays from a hungry Appalachian State team. South Alabama was caught in a very tight game last week, scoring with four minutes to go to secure a narrow home win as a heavy favorite in a back-and-forth game with 1-6 Georgia State. South Alabama has been tough to run against but the Trojans are a pass-first team. UL-Monroe rates similarly to South Alabama and Troy lost just 22-20 in its last road game at Monroe. South Alabama has a game with last season’s conference champion up next as this could be a difficult sandwich game on a short week and the spread has flipped by over two touchdowns from last season. Long time head coach Larry Blakeney should get the most out of his team coming off an embarrassing loss.

Brandon Shively

South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati -10

I like Cincinnati to win this game and cover. This is a revenge game from last year when Cincy lost SU 26-20 as a 10.5 point road favorite @ South Florida. It was embarrassing for them as they had 4 costly turnovers in that game and they should have won easily, after outgaining South Florida 350-241.

Cincinnati has the better offense by 132 yards over South Florida and they have played some tough defenses in Miami Fl, Memphis, and Ohio State this season. For South Florida, this is a team that continues to struggle on offense as they have gotten outgained in 5 of their 7 games this season and overall they are losing the stats by 107 yards a game. The QB's of South Florida are only completing 46% of their passes with a 6TD/8 INT mark and is no comparison to Gunner Kiel for Cincy, who has a wide arsenal of weapons to spread the ball too. He is the AAC's top rated QB is TD's and in Pass efficiency.

Now, Cincinnati's defense as struggled unexplainably. Last season they only gave up 21 ppg, and in 2012 they only allowed 18.5 ppg. This year, they are giving up 34.5 ppg and I think that the defense is much better than we are seeing. They have experience in the front 7 and the secondary. They do have new defensive coordinators which can explain for some of it, but I know HC Tommy Tubberville prides on defense and they will start to improve. This is a great game for the defense to tighten up vs. a South Florida team that has only scored over 17 points once this season. That was last week vs. Tulsa when they actually got outgained by 76 yards so don't let the 38-30 score fool you. Tulsa was actually up 30-14 in the 3rd quarter. After battling so hard to come back and get the win, I expect a letdown to be in store tonight as this is South Florida's 3rd road game in 4 weeks now. With Cincy being 8-2 ATS the last 10 meetings, I look for them to get their revenge in this game and smash the gas on Friday night.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

Chase Diamond

Troy vs. South Alabama
Play: Troy +14½

This game has the 1-6 Troy at the 4-2 South Alabama. We hit Troy hard on their only win this season and are backing them tonight as well. Big time point value here South Alabama should lay 2 touchdowns to no one. They struggled to beat Georgia State last week who is just 1-6. 78% of the public are laying heavy on South Alabama and this line hasn't moved much.

Chase Diamond's Featured Package

MLB Predictions

Royals / Giants Over 7

The series shifts to San Francisco Friday night with a lot to still be decided in this one. After the first two games you can often get a feel for the direction it is going to go, but in this case, one can make a solid case for both teams to win it all. The slight edge goes to the Giants considering as it stands now they have home field advantage after taking one in Kansas City. The pitching matchup tonight of Guthrie and Hudson doesn't get me all that excited. I find it difficult to back either. As a result, I'm taking a look at the total tonight. I have a feeling one gets hammered, similar to the first two games, or both pitchers suffer. In either scenario I think the total will get OVER 7 runs. Tim Hudson hasn't been in a consistent groove in quite awhile. He finished the regular season up pitching a 10.97 ERA with a 2.16 WHIP in his last three. His last postseason start against the Cards wasn't a walk in the park, getting hit for 4 runs and 7 hits over 6 innings. In half of his last 10 starts, Hudson gave up 4 or more runs. He was solid the first-half of the season, but fell apart in the second-half. Hudson had an ERA of 8.72 with a 1.85 WHIP in September. Jeremy Guthrie has been quite strong in that respect, a 2.40 ERA in the last month. However, he has a career 6.14 ERA against them and 1.98 WHIP. The first start of his career in the postseason came against the Orioles, a fine start, but he has never been on this stage before in his career. There should be enough runs here for it go to go OVER 7.

SPORTS WAGERS

CALIFORNIA +17½ over Oregon

Friday. In what has historically been a competitive series, the Oregon Ducks travel to Santa Clara's Levi`s Stadium to square off with Pac-12 rival Cal in what many expect would shape up to be a shootout. This perception is shaped by the notion that both Oregon and California both feature offenses that are in the top 10 in average points scored per game. There are however noticeable differences, California has evolved into a passing specialist, an "Air Raid" offense that averages 372 yards per game, which is ranked third nationally. Oregon is known for their up-tempo "Blur" attack that employs a more balanced approach. Despite the fact that both teams have proficient offenses, California is taking back some significant weight here. Last week, California had UCLA all but defeated, but a cavalier play call resulted in a turnover and subsequent UCLA 37-35 victory. Oregon dismantled UCLA just two weeks ago and this common opponent may be the cause for such a large spread. Oregon has not fared well over the course of the season as an overwhelming favorite against potent passing offenses like California. The Ducks defense is one of the worst (110th overall) in the country at defending the pass. California's offense is strikingly similar to Washington State and Arizona. Oregon's sole defeat was against Arizona and Washington State had them on the ropes when the Ducks visited them in Pullman.

California is 4-3 but, two of their three losses came as a result of some rather unforeseen circumstances. The Bears could easily be 6-1. We've written a lot about our belief that Oregon's star is falling and we aren't aborting our plan to fade the Ducks when it’s called for. Marcus Mariota's value is not in question and a real collapse might not come for another year but clearly, the Ducks have fewer doubters now and they’re still laying heavier prices. That's more reason for us to stay the course, as is another, less obvious factor. The issue that most threatens to derail Oregon's season is the inability of inexperienced coaches and players to manage expectations and deliver consistent performances despite distractions they've never faced before. With the big win comes another surge in those expectations and the difficulties they present. Oregon lacks developed depth in several position groups and no matter how you break it down they remain one of the most overvalued teams in the country. The Bears are surely ready to disrupt things and they are in line to play their best game of the season. This is way too many points to give a team that could easily go up 14 or more. Huge overlay.

SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA +6½ over Montreal

The Redblacks opened their home portion of the schedule this year to a highly energized and charged up crowd that was waiting a very long time to get their team back. The joint was sold out months in advance in anticipation of this great event and Ottawa came out and fed off the crowd en route to an 18-17 victory over the Toronto Argonauts. What a night it was for the great city of Ottawa. It would be another 10 weeks before the Redblacks would win again and that’s because they are a weak expansion team that are just not in the same class as the rest of the league.

That emotion in Ottawa on opening night will be pale in comparison to tonight. This is more than a football game. This is about a city and country uniting together to form as one. The awful events that transpired this week on Parliament Hill and in Quebec has impacted every Canadian and resonated throughout the globe. The message tonight is about freedom and democracy. How ironic is it that Ottawa has a home game with Montreal just a few days after those events? There are heartfelt letters from all over the world directed at both Canada and Nathan Cirillo, the young solidier who paid the ultimate price. It’s so sad and it’s so senseless and we can assure you that every player in that Ottawa dressing room will play the game of their lives in response to the emotion of the crowd and the situation. We would be saying the same thing regarding the Alouettes if this game were being played in Montreal and while the Als will feel it too, it won’t be the same as the players or personnel on the Redblacks, who live, practice and have families living close to Parliament Hill. The Redblacks will feel the emotion of an entire country tonight and even if you do not watch this game, we urge you, as Canadians, (or Americans for that matter) to tune in for the National Anthem and unite with the rest of the country in standing and saluting this great land. We’re so lucky to live here and the Ottawa Redblacks will give it absolutely everything they have to make that great city even more proud and with an entire country cheering them on. Invest.

SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas +106 over NEW JERSEY

OT included. The Devils were one of our undervalued teams to begin the year and while that hasn’t changed, they offer up no value as the chalk against a team from the West that is as talented as this one. New Jersey opened the year with three straight wins and even scored 11 goals in their first two games but that occurred against Philly and Florida. The Devils still allowed the Flyers to rally from a three-goal deficit and they also allowed four goals in that game in the final 24 minutes of the contest. More recently, the Devil lost three straight while allowing 14 goals against. In games against Washington and the Rangers over the past eight days, two teams that are not known for their offense, the Devils allowed 10 goals. They also lost 4-2 to the Sharks in between that. The Devils are not built to win games 5-4 or even 4-3. Cory Schneider looks lost out there, which can no longer be attributed to him not being the #1 goaltender and not knowing where he really stands. The Devils made it clear to Schneider that he was their #1 goaltender and he has not responded well. With his confidence already on shaky ground and with the pressure mounting on him to perform well, he’ll now face this potent offensive attack and he may not last 60 minutes.

Dallas has scored 11 goals in the last two games and 18 in the past four. That’s 4½ goals per game and they’re only going to get better. They have already played Anaheim, Chicago, Nashville and Pittsburgh and were the much better team in all of those games with the exception of their game in Nashville. Dallas has not been sharp in their past two games against Philly and Vancouver, despite picking up three out of a possible four points. They were outshot by the Canucks, 46-28 but buried five goals past Ryan Miller early and they did a similar thing to Steve Mason of the Flyers. In fact, Dallas has knocked out the past two goaltenders they have faced and again, they really weren’t sharp overall. Lindy Ruff will not tolerate sub-standard efforts. The Stars figure to be better tonight and to pay a lot more attention to detail. That’s bad news for the Devils and especially bad news for Cory Schneider. Dallas is much too dangerous to ignore as a pooch against a team they should beat and against a goaltender that is playing scared.

Pass MLB