Ryan M. Sports
Boise St vs BYU
Pick BYU -6.5
The 5-2 Boise St. Broncos head to Lavell Edwards Stadium in Provo, UT to take on the 5-2 BYU Cougars. Revenge game here tonight for the Cougars as they lost to the Broncos 7-6 last year in a defensive battle (Broncos only TD was a pick 6 by the nose tackle). Boise QB Grant Hendrick has taken over the keys of the offense since starting QB Joe Southwick went down and performed well last week against a much weaker defense. I expect The 28th ranked BYU defense to hold Boise's offense down, especially since getting back starting senior linebacker Spender Hadley from a 5 game suspension. BYU Cougars are 5-0 ATS since '92 against the Mountain West Conference and I look for that trend to stay undefeated tonight in Provo.
Harry Bondi
Boise State / BYU Under 61
This is not your typical Boise team. Starting QB Joe Southwick is lost to injury and while his replacement Grant Hendrick has been solid the Bronco's have been winning games with it's defense more than it's offense. BYU 's defense got lit up by Houston last week but that was an anomaly as their defense has been solid particularly when they face familiar Mountain West opponents. Cougars have gone under the total in their four Mountain West games this season ans tonight's game makes it five play under the total in tonight's nationally televised ESPN match-up.
EZWINNERS
Boise State +6.5
BYU has covered the spread in two out of the three meetings between these two teams, but Boise State has won all three meetings and this is the first time that the Cougars are favored in this match up. The Bronco's lost starting quarterback Joe Southwick to a broken ankle early in last week's game against Nevada, but backup quarterback junior Grant Hedrick is more than capable of running the show. The Cougars are coming off of a draining 47-46 win over Houston last Saturday and I expect this game to be close. Last year these two teams played one of the ugliest games of the season and even though I expect more scoring than last years 7-6 game, I do expect this one to be close all the way. Take the points.
Dr Bob
BYU (-7) 33 Boise State 28
Boise State’s starting quarterback Joe Southwick was injured on the first series last week and backup Grant Hedrick gets the start tonight against a very good BYU defense that’s yielded just 4.8 yards per play this season to a slate of offenses that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. The game plan with Hedrick will certainly be more conservative based on how they’ve used him in the past. The Broncos tend to settle on short passes while running more often when Hedrick is in the game and that strategy is not a bad one. Hedrick has completed 30 of 37 passes this season, but with an average completion of just 8.8 yards. Over his career Hedrick has completed 44 of 57 passes (77.2%) but has averaged a mediocre 6.3 yards per pass play. This season, Hedrick has averaged 6.7 yards on his 38 pass plays, mostly last week after Southwick was injured, and those have come against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average team (weighted by how many pass plays he had against each team, of course). That’s not too much of a drop off from Boise’s season pass rating of +0.4 yppp and Hedrick adds a running element that Southwick did not. Hedrick ran for 122 yards last week and has 316 yards on 39 career runs so I expect Boise State’s rushing attack to be better while the pass attack isn’t likely to drop too much. The interception rate will also likely drop given that Hedrick tends to throw safe passes and runs when nobody is open. Overall, there doesn’t appear to be a significant difference in Boise State’s offense with Hedrick at quarterback and they could actually be better if he continues to average 8.1 yards per run, as he has done so far in his career.
BYU’s offense has been 0.3 yppl better than average and should perform pretty well against a mediocre Boise defense that’s allowed 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team. Overall, the math favors BYU by 8 ½ points but the Cougars apply to a very negative 27-87-1 ATS situation that will have me leaning with the Broncos plus the points.
Playersbet
1st Half under Under 30.5
Boise State/ BYU Under 61.5
Last year these two teams played to a 7-6 game, do we expect that this year of course not but we do not expect a high scoring game. Both teams posses good defense’s and BYU runs the bal over 60% of the time. When we calcuate thoese 2 stats into our spread we see this game being play in the low to mid 50′s. Under is 12-3-1 in the Cougars’ previous 16 Friday games.
Play Under – Any team against the total in a game involving two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games 46-18 over the last 10 seasons
Craig Davis
Friday free play winner will be the Over in the Boise State-BYU game.
Very nice double-dip last night with the teaser in the NFL and the baseball game netting 80 dimes for my clients.
Tonight's free play is a mere opinion play because the total is too close to what I believe the final score will be.
Both of these teams can move the ball effectively on the ground as evidenced by their numbers not only all season but even last week in their respective wins.
BYU rolled up over 500 yards of offense in a 47-46 win over Houston while Boise rushed for over 300 yards in a 34-17 win over Nevada.
Even with the change at QB for Boise State, their rushing attack (including QB Hedrick) should have no problem moving the ball on BYU's rush defense.
Expect a lot of offense in Provo tonight. Take the OVER as your free play of the day.
1♦ BOISE STATE-BYU OVER
Joe Gavazzi
Boise St. +7.5
Bad news for the Broncos who lost veteran QB Southwick in the 1st series of last week's 34-17 win over Nevada. It was a loss that negatively impacted our OVER selection in that game. Though his replacement QB Hedrick, led the Broncos to an 18-21-1 passing line and 407-165 running advantage, must note it was against the defense of Nevada. This is a far greater test against a BYU team who has gone up tempo this year with QB Tannerhill being a dangerous weapon both with his feet and his arm. Note that in last week's battle of Cougars, a 47-46 survival win for BYU at Houston, BYU ran 115 plays for 681 yards. Though the Cougars allowed 483 yards to Houston last week, this is a very strong defense that was a key factor in last year's 7-6 BYU defeat at Boise. No surprise to this bureau if the defenses prevail once again with points at a premium. Selection would be rated higher were this not the first road start for QB Hedrick at a tough site in a primetime game. Light play here.
Brady Kannon
Boise St. +7
Quite a few pro's were on BYU last weekend against Houston, laying nearly double digits and if not for a last minute touchdown, The Cougars would have gone down outright. What this contest may have done more than anything however, is expose the highly touted BYU defense as they yielded 46-points to.. well, the other Cougars, Houston that is.. and with a coach as talented as Boise State's Chris Peterson, we feel this should open his eyes on to how to get after the BYU defense - with an offense of his own that averages close to 40-points per game. This is not the same Boise State of recent years but they have excelled as an underdog, getting the money earlier this year at Fresno and now 16-and-4 ATS as a dog when coming off of a victory. BYU on the other hand, is just 2-and-8 ATS as a favorite of 7-points or less. In our eyes, it's always hard to go against Boise State, no matter what season, and here getting a touchdown, we'll take it.