Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday October, 26

Texas Sports Wire

NEVADA at AIR FORCE

Nevada (6-2 SU/2-6 ATS) will look to regroup this week following a 39-38 OT loss at home to San Diego State last week as -7 point favorites. Nevada, which entered the week riding a five-game win streak, was paced by QB Cody Fajardo who completed 29-of-40 passes for 304 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. Stefphon Jefferson, the nation's leading rusher with an average of 162.7 ypg, managed 108 yards and a score on 32 carries. Nevada had a 480-349 edge in total offense and converted 10-of-17 on third down. The Wolfpack scored first in overtime and San Diego State answered with a touchdown of their own and decided to go for a two-point conversion. Nevada's two losses this season have come by a combined two points. The Wolfpack dropped a 32-31 decision at home to South Florida in the second week of the season. Air Force (4-3 SU/2-5 ATS) got past New Mexico last week in a 28-23 home win as -11 point favorites. Wes Cobb scored three touchdowns as the Falcons overcame a 10-0 first quarter deficit en route to a non-cover win over the Lobos in Mountain West Conference action at Falcon Stadium. Cobb finished with 82 yards rushing on a team-high 17 carries for Air Force, while Ty MacArthur led the Falcons with 94 yards and had four of a total five receptions by the Falcons for 61 yards. QB Connor Dietz added 58 yards rushing, while going 4-of-4 passing for 61 yards for the Falcons, who have won three of their last four games since a disturbing 38-35 loss at lowly UNLV on September 22. Air Force was outgained 443-366 in total offense and turned the ball over three times. The Falcons won despite losing Cody Getz, the nation's second-leading rusher, on their first snap when he aggravated a sprained left ankle. They ended up rushing for 291 yards, but gave up 409 rushing yards to New Mexico. Nevada is 2-8 ATS following an ATS loss and 3-9 ATS in October, as well as 9-17 ATS as a favorite and 6-14 ATS as a road favorite. The Wolfpack are also 3-10 ATS in Weeks # 5 thru # 9 and 6-12 ATS against conference foes. Air Force comes in 7-3 ATS as an underdog and 17-8 ATS in their last five games of the year – and the Fly Boys rank 2nd in the nation in rushing with a robust 352 YPG. Take the home dog

Dave Cokin

Nevada at Air Force
Pick: Nevada

Horrible loss last week by Nevada, as they coughed up several two-possession leads in an OT loss to San Diego State. Make no mistake, the very poor tackling by the Wolf Pack in that game is a concern. But the big issues were against the pass, and that's not a big worry against the grounded Falcons. This is not a good Air Force entry and UNR really figures to dominate up front. Road chalk off OT losses is not a great percentage play, but the matchup favors Nevada, so I'm on the favorite.

Jim Feist

Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
Pick: Washington Wizards

Washington is young and hungry, winning two in a row (both on the road). The last game they won at defending champion Miami, a 101-94 win, with a 28-16 fourth quarter. They take on an other veteran team with nothing to prove in San Antonio. The Spurs have lost 3 of 4 games, including the last two, giving up 104 points each time to Miami and Orlando. Grab the hungry young team in this preseason finale; Play Washington.

DAVID BANKS

Cincinnati / Louisville Over 52.5

The Louisville Cardinals (7-0, 3-4 ATS) are undefeated and ranked 16th on the BCS Standings, but the may be vulnerable to the running game of the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1, 3-2 ATS) from Papa Johns Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, KY Friday at 8:00 ET on ESPN. The Cardinals barely stayed undefeated by nipping South Florida 27-25 here at home last Saturday while the Bearcats may have been caught looking ahead to this contest when they lost their first game of the year in a non-conference game 29-23 on the road at Toledo.

Cincinnati still rushed for 251 yards in defeat on an amazing 7.2 yards per carry, and the Bearcats rank 16th in the country in rushing offense with 225.7 yards per game while being tied for fifth in rushing average at 5.9 yards per rush. Furthermore Cincinnati spreads the rushing wealth between running backs Ralph Abernathy IV and George Winn, and even their quarterback Munchie Legaux, who has rushed for 264 yards on a nice 6.0 yards per carry. That makes the Cats difficult to defend and the Louisville run defense may have been exposed by South Florida as the Bulls rushed for 197 yards in the near-upset. Furthermore, although Legaux had a poor passing game in Toledo that cost the Bearcats the game, he is normally not that inept as a passer as he has passed for 1435 yards on a good 8.0 yards per pass attempt this season with 12 touchdowns passes against five interceptions. That balanced offense is a key reason why the Bearcats average 34.5 points per game, and if Cincinnati establishes the run early as it usually does, then Legaux will have a chance to succeed vs. a 47th ranks Cardinals' passing defense.

Now the Cardinals obviously deserve credit for not losing a game on the field yet to this point, but they have not really been blowing teams away as indicated by their 3-4 ATS mark, and truth be told, they have not played a difficult schedule as its SOS ranks just 105th in the country according to the Sagarin Ratings. In fact, Sagarin has Louisville ranked just 48th while ranking Cincinnati 43rd despite the Cardinals being the team ranked on the BCS Standings. Louisville ranks 32nd in the country in total defense, although that suspect schedule has to be taken into consideration, and its 61st ranked total offense is a legitimate concern given that the Cards will probably need to score a lot to keep pace with a Cincinnati offense that looks better than that of the teams that Louisville has been facing so far in 2012. Also, while the Louisville defense is getting most of the attention in this game, the Cincinnati defense is holding its own while ranking 38th in total defense and allowing only 3.8 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per pass attempt.

The road teams have performed well in this head-to-head series going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Louisville is surprisingly 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games while Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall.

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Cincinnati +3.5 over LOUISVILLE: The Bearcats are 6-1 on the year and have done it with a better than expected offense that has put up 34.7 ppg, after returning just 4 starters from last year, and a defense that has been very good this year, allowing just 18.8 ppg. Cincinnati hasn't played a killer schedule, but the did crush Pitt in their opener and took out Va Tech on a neutral, so they can play against decent competition and I feel that even at 7-0 Louisville is just decent competition. The Cardinals come in perfect on the year, but only be 1 team with a winning record and that was North Carolina, in a game that they nearly blew after jumping out to a huge lead. The Cardinal offense has been very good, putting up 32.7 ppg, but the defense has been a problem in the defense seems to be having problems of late as they have allowed 30 ppg in their last 2 games, which were both vs the Big East. Prior to those games the Cards only played one other team with a good offense and that was Carolina and they allowed 34 points in that one. This is not a great defense and I feel the Bearcats have a solid edge on that side of the ball, while the offenses are pretty even. I look for Louisville to taste defeat for the first time this year as their defense just won't come up with enough stops to win this one.

Charlies Sports

Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs-7

The Washington Wizards of the NBA Eastern Conferenc Atlantic division will take on the San Antonio Spurs also of the Pacific division in 2012 NBA Exhibition action. The Washington Wizards finished strong last season winning their last 6 straight up and against the spread, but the will be without star guard John Wall for a while. The San Antonio Spurs are getting old and it showed in the Western Conference finals last season. San Antonio has covered their last 10 vs. Washington. Spurs get the home cover-7.

Rob Vinciletti

Nevada vs. Air Force
Play: Air Force

We will take a shot tonight with the fly boys as a home dog as they are 11-2 ats as a conference home dog of 2 or more. Nevada has slightly better numbers on both sides of the ball but has not fared well vs the spread this season against some marginal teams, largely due to an underachieving defense. Nevada is just 3-10 ats in weeks 5-9 and has failed to cover 11 of 14 times as a road favorite from -3.5 to -7 since 1992. They are also 2-6 ats vs winning teams . Look for a higher scoring game that may come down to the wire. Take the points with Air Force.

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Washington Wizards vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Washington Wizards
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Take the road underdog as the Washington Wizards have won their last two on the road, beating the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks. San Antonio is full of veterans like Duncan, Parker and Ginoboli. I expect to see some backups play key minutes for the Spurs.