Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 28

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings

We like the Wings off back to back losses, at home, against the Sharks Friday night. San Jose is just 10-25-1 its previous 36 visits to Joe Louis Arena and with Detroit an impressive 24-5 off a division loss by 3 goals or more, laying the price has to be the way to go. This is also a revenge game for the home team considering they were ousted in seven games from last year's playoffs by the Sharks.

Play on: Detroit

Charlie Scott

BYU vs. TCU
Play: BYU +13.5

Playing Byu getting almost 2 TD's Tonight just makes good sense in this spot. BYU has a 5 gm winning streak s/u and has covered their last 5 games as underdogs. BYU has also shown they can play on the road this season, Winning S/U at Mississippi & Oregon St and losing 16-17 at Texas. TCU has 2 S/U losses this season at Baylor 48-50 and vs SMU 33-40. TCU has shown this season that their defense struggles vs teams that can Pass and also struggle vs Teams that can match up with them physically and Not be pushed around. BYU can do both pass on offense and play physical. PLAY the Mormons to keep this game close !

Jim Feist

St. Louis Blues vs. Calgary Flames
Play: St. Louis Blues

St. Louis is playing good hockey, and they play particularly well against bad teams. The Blues are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record and 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Calgary is mired in last place with a weak offense (21st in goals) and 20th in goals against. The Flames are 2-11 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record, so grab the visitors. Play St. Louis!

David Banks

BYU / TCU Over

Former conference rivals are set to square off under the Friday Night Lights when the BYU Cougars (6-2, 4-4 ATS) invade Arlington, TX to battle the TCU Horned Frogs (5-2, 4-3 ATS); kick-off from Cowboys Stadium is set to go live on ESPN & ESPN3.com at 8:00 ET.

Since making the change at the QB1 position during halftime against Utah State with Riley Nelson taking over for the ineffective Jake Heaps, the BYU Cougars have won four games in a row. Last week’s 56-3 dismantling of Idaho State saw head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s kids cover their second straight game after going into Corvallis the week before and handing the Oregon State Beavers a 38-28 home defeat as 3.5-point underdogs. BYU has gone into some nasty venues this season (Mississippi, Texas, Oregon State), so a trip to Arlington to play on a neutral field shouldn’t be all that intimidating; the Cougars stand 2-1 SU & ATS as a visitor to date. The Cougars don’t really do anything special offensively, but the defense has allowed an average of just 340.5 YPG (#33) and given up an average of 21.5 PPG (#31) while forcing 18 overall turnovers. BYU has won and covered each of its L/3 neutral field battles.

TCU went down in its season opener in a wild one at Baylor that saw it fall 50-48 in the closing seconds. Coach Gary Patterson’s squad then went on to destroy its next three opponents (Air Force, UL Monroe, Portland State) by the aggregate score of 128-49 before falling in overtime at home against SMU. Since then, the Horned Frogs have gotten back to killing the opposition toppling San Diego State 27-15 as five-point road favorites and New Mexico last week 69-0 as lofty 45-point home chalk. While the defense is a much lesser form than the one that dominated Mountain West opposition en route to a Rose Bowl triumph a year ago, the offense has stolen the spotlight with QB Casey Pachall leading the way. He’s thrown for 1566 yards and sports a TD/INT ratio of 17/4. TCU has only been a double digit favorite in a neutral venue once the L/3 seasons, and failed to cover in that role.

Since dropping back-to back games to the Cougars from 2006-07, TCU has dominated the recent rivalry winning the L/3 games by an average of 28 PPG. BYU checks in a perfect 5-0 ATS its L/5 as an underdog as well as 5-1 ATS its L/6 away from Provo. They are however just 1-5 ATS their L/6 Friday night tussles splitting two earlier bouts ATS this season against UCF & Utah State. TCU stands just 3-3 ATS the L/6 times it was favored in the 10.5-21 point range, 0-3 ATS its L/3 neutral field clashes, and 0-5 ATS its L/5 non-conference bouts.

David Chan

San Jose Sharks @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

I bet value where I see it and expect the Wings to harpoon the Sharks this evening.

Both teams come into this contest playing the first game of a back to back.

Antti Niemi is in net for San Jose; his counterpart is Jimmy Howard.

Howard returns to net after a two game absence because of the birth of his son; with the backup in net, his team was outscored 11-2 in losses to Washington on Saturday and Columbus on Tuesday.

The Wings starter is 4-0-0 with a 1.72 GAA on the year; he'll be plenty motivated here as well against the Sharks as he posted a 2.49 GAA in last year's seven-game Western Conference semifinal loss to San Jose.

Niemi has been sharp as well, making 20 saves in Tuesday's 3-1 win over Nashville, posting a 1.95 GAA over his last three games.

But I'm going to lay the price on the home side; after back to back losses, and with the return of Howard, we're getting great line value on this investment; all signs point to a comfortable home victory!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Rangers/Cardinals UNDER 8

I'm chalking up the offense displayed in Game 6 as an aberration. These two teams have still played to the under in four of six games this series, and Busch Stadium has been a rather pitcher-friendly park recently. In fact, we've seen 7 total runs scored or fewer in 8 of the Cardinals' last 11 home games. The under is 7-2 in the Rangers' last 9 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 7-2 in their last 9 World Series games. The under is also 5-2 in Harrison's last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The under is 18-8-1 in the Cardinals' last 27 playoff home games, 6-2 in their last 8 World Series home games and 10-4 in their last 14 World Series games. The under is also 3-0-1 in Carpenter's last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. It is also worth noting that the under is 4-1 in umpire Jerry Layne's last 5 games behind home plate, 9-2-2 in his 13 games behind home plate in matchups featuring St. Louis and 10-4-2 in his last 16 games behind home plate in matchups featuring Texas. We'll bet the Under.

Rob Vinciletti

BYU vs. TCU
Play: BYU +14

On Friday the free College football side is on BYU. Game 109 at 8:00 eastern. BYU has won and covered the last 5 on Artificial Turf and has Double Blowout revenge going tonight. We note that BYU has covered 16 of the last 19 on the road or at a neutral site as a dog with revenge. BYU has covered 8 of the last 12 as a dog and Takes on a TCU team that while solid is clearly not as good as the last 2 seasons. TCU is 0-3 ats at neutral sites of late and coach Patterson is 0-8 against the spread as a non conference favorite of 12 or more points off a spread win of 3 or more. While we wont call for an upset, we will take the points with BYU.

Jack Jones

Rangers/Cardinals OVER 7.5

I had the OVER in Game 6 with a 10-9 victory by the Cardinals in extra innings. I fully expect another high-scoring contest in Game 7 tonight in St. Louis. Odds makers have once again set the number too low in this one folks.

Matt Harrison and Chris Carpenter are in tough spots here. It is very unlikely that both of these starters perform well tonight. Harrison gave up five runs in 3 2/3 innings in his Game 3 start against St. Louis, which resulted in a 16-7 victory by the Cardinals. Harrison is 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA in three starts and four games during the postseason.

Chris Carpenter has pitched very well for most of the postseason, though the only time he was really roughed up came on his only start on three days' rest. He was tagged for four runs and five hits in just three innings - his shortest outing of the season - during a 5-4 victory in Philadelphia in Game 2 of the NLDS.

The OVER is 9-3-2 in Rangers last 14 games following a loss. The OVER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 interleague games as a favorite. Both bullpens blew up last night, and each team will certainly have to rely on their bullpens again tonight as neither of these starters goes deep into the game. Bet the OVER in Game 7 Friday.

Jack Jones

Rangers/Cardinals OVER 7.5

I had the OVER in Game 6 with a 10-9 victory by the Cardinals in extra innings. I fully expect another high-scoring contest in Game 7 tonight in St. Louis. Odds makers have once again set the number too low in this one folks.

Matt Harrison and Chris Carpenter are in tough spots here. It is very unlikely that both of these starters perform well tonight. Harrison gave up five runs in 3 2/3 innings in his Game 3 start against St. Louis, which resulted in a 16-7 victory by the Cardinals. Harrison is 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA in three starts and four games during the postseason.

Chris Carpenter has pitched very well for most of the postseason, though the only time he was really roughed up came on his only start on three days' rest. He was tagged for four runs and five hits in just three innings - his shortest outing of the season - during a 5-4 victory in Philadelphia in Game 2 of the NLDS.

The OVER is 9-3-2 in Rangers last 14 games following a loss. The OVER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 interleague games as a favorite. Both bullpens blew up last night, and each team will certainly have to rely on their bullpens again tonight as neither of these starters goes deep into the game. Bet the OVER in Game 7 Friday.

NHL Predictions

Blues / Flames Under 5.5

Brian Elliott is coming off a shutout in Vancouver and I expect him to get the start again tonight. He is 4-0 on the season with a 1.59 GAA and .950 SV%. Mikka Kiprusoff picked up the win on Wednesday night and is 3-3 with a 2.19 GAA and .924 SV%. He has enjoyed success against the Blues with a 19-5-2 lifetime record against them and a stellar 1.94 GAA. Calgary’s 4 goals on Wednesday bumped their season average up, but they are still only scoring 2.4 goals per game. The Blues are averaging 2.8 goals per game. Take note that the UNDER is 4-1 in the Blues last 5 vs a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 3-1-2 in the Flames last 6 overall and 22-9-2 in their last 33 games as a small favorite of -110 to -150. The UNDER is 8-3 in these two teams last 11 meetings, and 16-4-2 in their last 22 meetings in Calgary. This will be the Flames 5th straight home game. Their last 4 games have had totals of 6, 2, 5, and 3 (the only OVER was Wednesday with two late goals). Two hot goalies and two teams that play the UNDER against each other gives us value with a 5.5 total in this one. Take the UNDER.