Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 29,2010

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors

When the Raptors host the Cavaliers north of the border Friday night they will do so knowing Cleveland enters off a season opening home dog win over Boston while Toronto checks in off a season opening home loss against New York. That sets the table for tonight's contest with the Cavs just 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS as a dog in games off a victory over the Celtics. Toss in the Raptors' 7-3 ATS mark at home in games off a home loss and it suddenly looks like both team will the the court even at 1-1 here tonight.

Tom Freese

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta beat Memphis 119-104 in their first game of the year. The Hawks are 14-4 ATS off a straight up win and they are 14-5 ATS vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams. The Hawks are 7-2 ATS their last 9 games as favorites. The Hawks are 6-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Philadelphia lost their first game to Miami 97-87. The Sixers are 19-39-1 ATS their last 59 home games and they are 9-23 ATS their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Sixers are 2-7-1 ATS when their opponent scores more than 100 points in their last game.

Scott Spreitzer

Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks
Play on: Dallas Mavericks

I'm laying the points with the Grizzlies on Friday night. I went against the Grizzlies on opening night and we cashed with the Hawks. Memphis was a 3-point favorite in the game, but we stated that they would likely have a tough time with the new, motion-based Atlanta offense, and they did. If they were healthy, I'd expect a quick bounce-back in tonight's game. But they have a couple of key injuries that will really show up in a negative sense in this one. Dallas is big inside, no doubt. And Memphis doesn't expect to have Marc Gasol, who's listed as doubtful. They're also going to be without Zach Randolph, who says he's probably going to sit this one out after injuring his back. I mentioned in the opener that I like four of the five starters on this team. The only question mark for me is at the PG position. Now, two of their primary players will likely be sidelined, which means I only like two of their five starting positions in this particular game. Dallas rolled in their opener and should have little trouble extending their dominant run over the banged-up Memphis Grizzlies.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors

Cleveland clearly has something to prove as they embark on their first season without the 'Chosen One' as evidenced by their outright win at home vs. Boston Wednesday night. Toronto is a terrible team, having lost its opener, outright, at home to the New York Knicks. Wrong team favored here as the Raptors are 10-25 ATS at home off a home division loss and a perfect 0-9 ATS in home games if the total is between 195 and 199.5. The Cavs are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS the last seven meetings.

Play on: Cleveland

Chip Chirimbes

Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets +1

The Denver Nuggets waited all summer their shot at the Utah Jazz who knocked them out of the NBA Playoffs in the first round last season and they really laid it on them in their opener winning by 22 points. New Orleans led by Chris Paul won 98-92 as a one-point dog last year and with the 'number' at the same spot this time around I'm come back with New Orleans.

Jorge Gonzalez

West Virginia vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 45½

West Virginia will take to the road in Big East action to take on the Connecticut Huskies. The Big East is a disaster this season and may send the worst team to a BCS bowl game. The Mountain West conference would easily send a better team to one of the bog bowl games. The Big East teams still have to play their games and this won’t be one that will be very exciting. The Huskies are coming off a 27-0 shutout at the hands of the up and coming Louisville Cardinals. The Huskies lost their starting quarterback Cody Endrus for the season and red-shirt freshman Michael Box left last game with a head injury. The Mountaineers only score 19 points on the road and the offense is not the same high scoring offense under Bill Stewart. Take the Under.

LT Profits

Flyers / Penguins Under 6

The NHL season is still very young, and yet the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins should be very familiar with each other, given that this is already their third meeting of the year. To that end, look for the teams to skate ‘under’ the total here, just as they would have in both of the first two meetings if not for an empty net goal in the second encounter.

The sportsbooks have installed a high-ish total of 6 for this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under; at -120.

There two teams christened the brand new Consol Energy Center in Pittsburgh on opening night, but the Flyers spoiled the festivities with a 3-2 victory. Philadelphia surprised many by starting rookie goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky in that contest, and he responded by stopping 29 of 31 shots. Bobrovsky is scheduled to start again here tonight, with Brian Boucher getting the call tomorrow vs. the New York Islanders.

Bobrovsky may be pushing to be the number one goaltender in Philadelphia though, as he has a winning 3-2-0 record with a .904 save percentage, while the current number one Boucher is 1-2-1 with a .898 save percentage. Thus, the rookie will certainly be motivated to shut down Sidney Crosby and Company yet again.

Fellow goalie Marc-Andre Fleury is having a disappointing season for the Penguins, but he did play reasonably well in the opener, and he too will be motivated by the fact that Brett Johnson is looking over his shoulder, poised to claim the starting job. It was Johnson who was in net for the 5-1 Pittsburgh win in the second meeting between the clubs, a game where the Flyers pulled the goalie early, with about 4:00 left down 4-1, resulting in a Penguin empty-netter.

The posted total was 5½ in that game, meaning that the meaningless tally pushed the game ‘over’, but with the extra ½ goal of line value here and a goalie rematch from the season opener, look for this game to top out at no more than five goals.

JIM FEIST

LAKERS / SUNS
PLAY: OVER

A pair of uptempo teams meet with Steve Nash battling Kobe Bryant. LA didn't play any defense in the opener, giving up 110 points to the Rockets, but they still squeezed out a win with all their offensive options. Phoenix plays its third game in four nights and we already know they are a small, finess team, like last season, getting killed on the boards by the Blazers while giving up 106 points. One of those early season games where both would prefer to run and gun that play stifling defense will mean a lot of points. Play the Lakers/Suns Over the total.

Sac Lawson

Connecticut / West Virginia Under 46

Who plays at QB tonight for UConn? Who really cares? Michael Box started last week, got a bit banged up and was replaced by Zach Frazier. Frazier, obviously, started the year as the number one guy. Regardless, neither one performed very well against Louisville, and I can easily see both of them getting a chance tonight. At the end of the day, though, UConn's success comes down to their running game. Jordan Todman is the go-to guy; in order for this team to have any chance tonight, they've simply got to get 4-5 yards on first down, and the only way they'll do that is by keeping it on the ground.

That being said, that 3-4 defense that WVA runs tends to crowd the box like crazy, and extremely limit big runs. It'll be a grinder game for Todman, and the two QB's for UConn would be awfully lucky to show any signs of improvement against this #6 defense in the nation.

On the other side, hanging with this UNDER for me is all about Bill Stewart. He may be a great guy, but in my opinion he's still one of the worst coaches in the game today. He 100% will not, no matter what, play for blowout victories. As soon as any lead is established, it's straight to the ground game. A ground game that was predicted to have big play ability, but in reality, the offensive line simply hasn't done the work this year. Point being, Stewart is the kinda guy to get up 20 points in the 2nd quarter, and then call the dogs off and never score again. We saw that mentality bite them against Syracuse, and we'll use that against them tonight when it comes to the UNDER.

I'm not a big fan of UConn's defense, in fact, I'd say they're overrated. But Bill Stewart will keep WVA from putting up points at their potential, and that defense will limit Todman enough to keep UConn in the teens. Take the UNDER for 1 unit.

INSIDER ANGLES

West Virginia vs. Connecticut

The Connecticut Huskies suspended starting quarterback Cody Endres for the rest of the season prior to last week’s game at Louisville, and they were then promptly shut out for the first time since 2005 by a Cardinals team not renowned for its defense 26-0. Meanwhile, the West Virginia Mountaineers are averaging only 19.0 points per game on the road, so look for a rather low scoring game Friday night.

Yes, the 3-4 Huskies are 3-0 at home this season while averaging 49.0 points, but those three wins were vs. an FCS team in Texas Southern, a lower echelon MAC team in 2-5 Buffalo and the worst team in the SRC in 2-5 Vanderbilt. Also, all three were with Endres under center. They must now face the best team in the Bog East in the Mountaineers, who are allowing just 13.3 points and a miniscule 245.9 total yards per game despite facing a tough schedule.

Connecticut tried Michael Box at quarterback to start the game last week, but he was yanked after completing only four of 12 passes for 35 yards and an interception. His replacement Zach Frazer threw for only 35 yards as Connecticut ended up with a grand total of 195 total yards, 108 of which came on the ground. Given that West Virginia is allowing just 3.0 yards per rush, UConn may struggle to get out of the single-digits again this week.

As for the Mounties, while their defense has played well all year, their offense has been rather erratic. In two Big East games, they beat South Florida 20-6 and were then were dropped from the national rankings following a shocking 19-14 home loss to Syracuse last week. We expect more of the same this week, with the defense easily shutting down a Connecticut offense with no QB, and the offense continuing to sputter on the road.

Thus, look for these clubs to struggle to even reach 40 points, let alone the 45 points this total is posted at.

Pick: West Virginia, Connecticut Under 45

Frank Jordan

West Virginia vs. Connecticut
Play: West Virginia -6

West Virginia is 5-2, but just 1-1 in the Big East which puts them a game behind Pittsburgh and a win behind Syracuse for top team. West Virginia is coming off a loss to Syracuse at home 19-14 that pushed them out of first place in the Big East. UConn lost their first game of the year, but bounced back nicely winning three of their next four to move to 3-2 on the year heading into conference play. Conference play hasn't been kind and a lot of the analysts had UConn winning this conference, but it hasn't gone that way with back to back road conference losses in each of the last two games. Look for West Virginia to bounce back with a big road win as UConn remains lost in conference play.

Craig Trapp

Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: Denver Nuggets -1

DEN looked great in game 1 even with the distraction of Anthony. Good news for DEN is that Affolo, Billups, and JR Smith look in midseason form. Also depth at PG will wear out the repaired knee of Paul. Lawson is the best backup PG in the league and tonight he will show it. This one will be very easy win for DEN.

Dave Price

1 Unit on LA Lakers -4.5

The rested reigning champs get the call against a Suns team playing back-to-back. The Lakers have won 10 of the last 14 meetings in this series as Phoenix has really struggled with their length. I expect the length of the Lakers to be even more imposing now that Amare Stoudemire is gone. These back-to-backs really take their toll on the aging Steve Nash. He expends so much energy when he plays and has a bad back to deal with also. We'll lay the points with LA tonight.

Sam Martin

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

We'll lay the small number with Atlanta here, and we think Atlanta can dominate this Philadelphia side much like the Hawks did in their season opening blowout win at Memphis. The Hawks won that game by 15 points, and while Atlanta has their sights set on another playoff push this year, they need to come out of the gate on fire against this weak portion of the schedule. Philly lost by ten against the Heat two days ago, and this game might serve as a small letdown spot after playing the marquee team in the conference. Too much talent on the Hawks side to lose this one!