LARRY NESS
Orlando @ Miami
PICK: Miami -3
The "boys from South Beach," better known as "the best team in NBA history," opened the new season (which I'm told will be the first of SIX straight NBA titles) in Boston and were treated rudely by the Celtics. The Celtics had a point to make and MADE IT! The Heat did recover by winning the next night in Philadelphia (97-87) but tonight find themselves facing another team intent on "making a statement!" The Heat and Magic have spent the better part of the summer trading verbal barbs and there is little doubt that all NBA fans will be treated to quite a rivalry these next few seasons with these two Southeast Division clubs. The Magic opened their season last night vs the Wizards and had little trouble handling John Wall in his NBA debut, comfortably winning by the score of 112-83. Orlando has dominated this series in recent years, winning 14 of 17, including SEVEN of nine in Miami. However, you may heard. It's a "new era" in Miami these days. No one would like the see the Heat fail more than I but so far, I'm a perfect 2-for-2 with this team. I played against them at Boston and then on them at Philly. While I would love to see them get their butts kicked here, that's my 'heart talking,' not my head. I believe this is a VERY important game for the Heat, after already losing at Boston. However, it's hard to make too much of that loss, as winning in Boston never comes easy and everyone expected the Celtics to treat that contest like Game 7 of the NBA Finals (which they did). However, this one is different. The Magic come to town with big or bigger 'mouths' than the Heat and a loss in the team's home opener, would be no way for Miami to start it's "new era." LBJ has 17 turnovers in his first two games, neither Wade nor Boch are off to good starts plus the Miami 'helpers' seem more reminiscent of "the Seven Dwarfs" than NBA players. That being said, I expect the Heat to "play a good one tonight," and it's not often this year we'll be able to lay this small of a number with "the greatest team in NBA history." As much as it 'pains' me, I'm on the Heat.
BETTORSWORLD
UConn +6.5
Everyone knew this was going to be a down year for the Big East after the first few games of the season. However, most thought the West Virginia Mountaineers were a clear favorite and they were the only "good" team in the conference. Well, turns out that might not be so. They dropped a game to Syracuse last week and they now find themselves at 5-2 playing a desperate 3-4 Connecticut team. The Huskies will host this game after suffering a 26-0 beat down at the hands of Louisville Cardinals.
The first thing that jumps off the page when researching Connecticut football is their failure to compete in the special teams game. In a 24-21 loss to Rutgers they allowed 4 kick returns for 135 yards and a long return of 75 yards. Against Louisville they gave up 74 yard punt return for a TD. They won't win many games serving up what is for all intents and purposes a "free" TD each game.
The Connecticut QB situation is in shambles. They have a seasoned veteran senior in Frazer, but he is playing as poorly as an athlete can play so far in 2010. He has just 2 TD passes this year and they came against FCS foe Texas Southern. On the bright side, if there is one, he has thrown only a single INT.
Frazer will start only if redshirt freshman Michael Box cannot. Box was injured against Louisville and is questionable at this point in time. Regardless of who gets the start, things are looking bleak for this offense. They will have one of their toughest challenges of the year against a stout West Virginia defense and they are doing so with no distinguished leader.
Geno Smith has been a pleasant surprise at QB for the Mountaineers. He enters this game off a poor 1 TD, 3 INT performance against Syracuse, but before that he had 2 TDs against USF, and 3 against UNLV. He had no INTs in either of those games. While Smith is important, it is Noel Devine who makes the offense tick. He has 626 yards, 4 TDs, and a TD catch so far this year. The shifty senior's only bad game came against an ultra tough LSU defense. It will be up to him to get yardage against a Huskies defense that isn't putting up much of a fight in that department. If he gets 100+ yards this game will likely go to the Mountaineers.
Things are a little better on defense for the Huskies. They are 48th in the nation in Points Against at 22.6 PPG. If the offense was able to stay on the field a bit longer this number would surely get better. This defense has been weak against the run, but is doing well rushing the pass. They have 10 sacks in their past 3 games. In home games they have allowed 3, 21, and 21 points. If they can hold the Mountaineers to a point total that low they can cover the spread.
The Mountaineers defense has been nothing short of incredible in 2010. The only team to gain in excess of 300 yards is Marshall. They rank 6th overall in Points Against at 13.3 PPG. On average, they are giving up 246 yards of offense per game. Two games ago against USF they allowed just 202 yards. They are doing an excellent job of pressuring the QB and they will be licking their chops regardless of who takes the field for UCONN.
Last week was a tough one for UCONN. They lost a QB due to a failed drug test and also lost an offensive lineman. The week was capped off by an embarrassing 26-0 shut out to Louisville. UCONN is winless in Big East play. All this while many had picked UCONN to win the Big East as most believed this was the best group of talent Edsall has ever had at UCONN. But seasons tend to take on lives of their own. Now UCONN must face the only Big East team it has never beaten.
We still believe Randy Edsall is one of the better coaches in all of college football. He has always made the best of what he's had as far as talent. His UCONN teams have never been the most talented but they have always been dangerous and this was mostly always due to the fact that his teams didn't beat themselves.
So, after a week like last week, we'd expect to see a different UCONN team this week. We'd be shocked if they didn't show up. They'll have the benefit if playing at home, as an underdog, in a Nationally televised Friday Night game, in what amounts to a due or die situation with their season on the line. Not only is the Big East on the line, but their chances of making it to a 4th straight Bowl game are getting slimmer and slimmer as each week goes by. This team has won 8 or 9 games 3 straight years and has gone to a Bowl game 4 straight years. After WVA they have Pitt, Syracuse, Cinci and South Florida. Not an easy game on the schedule.
If it weren't for West Virginia losing at home to Syracuse last week, we would love UCONN in this spot. But coming off that loss, folks in West Virginia are getting antsy, both the media and the fans. So, similar to the UCONN situation, you'd expect a big bounce back week from the Mountaineers.
In coming up with a number on this game, we have WVA favored by about 6. So, not much of an edge for us when comparing our number to the betting line. We still favor the UCONN side, based on the desperation involved as well as this game being at home on under the Friday Night Lights.
Not a strong play, but something else to keep in mind is that this game opened up West Virginia -7 at a few "sharp" sportsbooks and has been bet down to -6 and -6.5 despite a very high percentage of the action coming in on West Virginia. This is an indication of sharp money on the UCONN side so we'll side with the sharps here in a game we already shaded towards UCONN. Small play - Uconn +6.5
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +1.17 over NY RANGERS
There are a bunch of goaltenders this season that are off to tremendous starts. Names like Tim Thomas, Pekka Rinne, Carey Price and Jimmy Howard come to mind but nobody is really talking about Cam Ward. He’s never looked sharper. Ward is also playing for one of the most undervalued teams in the league. The Canes are just 4-4 but they’re only going to get better. Rookie Jeff Skinner is everything they said he was and more. Eric Cole is healthy and leads the team with a +6 plus/minus. Eric Staal is healthy and is looking sharp but he really needs no introduction and the surrounding cast is a good one. The Rangers play hard and they have to in order to win. This is a hugely challenged offensive squad that is hard pressed to score twice in a game. The Rangers also play in Toronto tomorrow night and will be featured on Hockey Night in Canada. The bottom line is that the Rangers are about as risky a favorite as any team in the league and it’s also worth noting that Henrik Lundqvist has not been as sharp as in previous years. Burnout perhaps? Play: Carolina +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
New Jersey/ANAHEIM over 5½ +1.08
What’s wrong with the Devils? That seems to be the most discussed issue among fans and media but it’s not that complicated. While nobody wants to admit it, Martin Brodeur is finished. He’s got a ton of miles on him, his reflexes and positioning are not close to what they used to be and much like Chris Osgood, Curtis Joseph and a few others, it’s time to move on. The Red Wings brass saw it with Osgood and made Jimmy Howard its #1 guy, a move the Devils could learn from. But again, Brodeur demands respect and nobody wants to tell him to ride the pine and be #2. Furthermore, the Devils defense is composed of a bunch of rookies and inexperienced players. They used to beat teams 2-1 but will now have to start learning to win 5-4. The Devils have allowed a league worst 35 goals and 14 over its last three games. Tied with them for most goals allowed are the Anaheim Ducks, a team with a poor defense and a great offense. So, when you think New Jersey Devil hockey you think defense. Those days are gone. When you think Ducks and Devils you think low scoring games. Those days are gone too. The books have this one all wrong. Play: New Jersey/Anaheim over 5½ +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO +4½ over Montreal
Two very tough games tonight to even have a clue which way to lean. The Als are home-free and cooled off and will have home-field advantage throughout. In other words they’ll play for nothing but a 40-3 loss to Hamilton last week can’t be sitting too well with them. Do they want to rebound strongly? Do they even care? Fact is, Montreal is the far superior team and its only concern will be staying healthy. Why should they care what the scoreboard says? In addition, this is not the tune-up game for the playoffs, as there is still one more meaningless game on deck. With that said, one really has to question the motivation of the Als. If all things were equal and this was the first round of the playoffs, the Als would be a big favorite and they’d likely destroy the Argos. But it’s not and thus, we’d be very skeptical of laying the points. The Argos are not worth a bet either. If the Als want to send a message, they will. The Argos are still playing for second spot and home field advantage vs the Tabbies. These games are important to them and it’s for that reason that the points are preferred. Play: Toronto (No bets).
Hamilton +5 over CALGARY
This one pretty much has the same flavor as the first. Calgary has locked up top spot in the West while the Ticats look to improve its playoff ranking. They have a great chance to leap frog over the Argos with a win here combined with a Toronto loss and they’re playing some pretty damn good football right now. However, Hamilton is coming off its biggest win in years a week ago when they plastered the Als. Calgary is coming off another bad loss and just like in the Montreal game, we’re really not quite sure which edition of the Stamps will show up. Calgary is the most talented team in the league and if its focus is on, and one would assume they want to get right-sided before the playoffs begin, then Hamilton could be in trouble here. Still, it’s a big if and one that can’t be endorsed. Play: Hamilton +5 (No bets).
Scott Delaney
Cleveland (+3) at TORONTO
I think I will make it a habit of looking at all lines involving Cleveland, and play it every time I see value when I believe the oddsmakers are being disrespectful toward the Cavaliers.
Coming off a solid win against the Celtics, who probably suffered a letdown after knocking off the Heat in the season-opener, I think Cleveland gained some confidence without what's his name in the lineup any longer.
I love what I saw with a balanced attack, as J.J. Hickson led six players in double figures with 21 points to lead the Cavaliers to a 95-87 win.
And while Cleveland was just fine without its defector, Toronto struggled with its traitor - Chris Bosh. The Raptors lost to the Knicks, 98-93, on Wednesday, and come into their first meeting with Cleveland after going 1-3 in last season's meetings with the Cavs.
And make not the Cavs got it done the other night without Mo Williams. It's possible he'll be in the lineup tonight, but if he's not, they already know what they're capable of.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Karl Garrett
New York (+9) at BOSTON
After their Tuesday night "statement" win at home over the vaunted Miami Heat, Boston promptly hit the road on Wednesday and were caught napping by a fired-up Cleveland team.
Now playing their third game in four nights, I expect the aging Boston legs to be a wee-bit tired when they take on the new-look New York Knicks who have added Amar'e Stoudemire to their roster.
The Knickerbockers are still a marquee player or two away from moving up the ladder in the East Conference, but they are catching enough points this evening to make the G-Man interested.
The Knicks have been able to cover in 3 of the last 4 series meetings plus the spot, and 4 of the last 6 overall in this Atlantic Division rivalry.
Don't trust the C's as the near double-digit favorite this early in the season, especially since this is their third game in four nights.
Take the points.
2♦ NEW YORK
Chris Jordan
New York at BOSTON (-9)
Boston has to be happy with this matchup for its third game of the season, as it's been dominating the Knicks recently.
Thus, I like the Celtics to win their eighth straight over New York, while the Magic and Heat battle tonight in South Beach.
One thing that is coming true, just over two games, but realistically dating back to last season, is this team is more than the Big Three! It should find a name that fits a foursome, because besides Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, there's Rajon Rondo, who led his team with 17 assists in the season-opener against Miami.
He poured in a team-high 18 points in a loss to the Cavaliers the next night.
So, you see, there's more than the trio.
I expect big things from all of them tonight, especially Paul Pierce, as Boston is 23-4 overall and 11-1 at home against the Knicks when the All-Star scores more than 20 points.
The Celtics have won 20 of the last 25 versus New York.
This one should be easy, so I'll lay the chalk.
2♦ BOSTON
Chuck O'Brien
Oklahoma City (-6) at DETROIT
Well, it didn’t take Kevin Durant very long to get his season revved up. The defending league scoring champ poured in 30 points and grabbed seven rebounds in leading Oklahoma City to a 106-95 rout of Derrick Rose and the Bulls on Tuesday, cashing as a 6½-point home favorite. Proving that the Thunder are much more than just a one-man show, though, point guard Russell Westbrook (28 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) and forward Jeff Green (21 points, four rebounds) combined to go 15-for-32 for 49 points in the win.
Likely lost in the victory was the way Oklahoma City closed out both halves against a playoff-caliber opponent, surging late in the second quarter to take a five-point lead into the locker room, then outscoring Chicago 24-13 in the final quarter.
On the flip side, Detroit blew a 47-39 halftime lead at New Jersey on Tuesday and lost 101-98. Although the Pistons did cover as a four-point underdog, the fact they allowed the Nets to score 101 points – 62 in the second half – is pretty disturbing given the explosive opponent they’re facing tonight. Not to mention the fact Detroit ended last season by cashing in just eight of its final 29 home games.
Oklahoma City has turned the table on the Pistons recently, posting three straight comfortable victories (margins of 10, 8 and 11 points) after the franchise lost the previous eight meetings. The Thunder have also gotten the money in eight of the last nine against Detroit, including the last six in a row, and they’re 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 against the Eastern Conference and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Friday contests.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee at MINNESOTA (+4')
No, this isn't so much an endorsement on the Timberwolves as it is a fade on the Bucks.
Minnesota's Kurt Rambis remains the NBA's most clueless coach. He kept Kevin Love, one of his few good players, glued to the bench during the final eight minutes of the Timberwolves' 117-116 season-opening loss to Sacramento on Wednesday. Love had 11 points and 10 rebounds during the first half. Rambis said he didn't play Love because it was hurting his team's defense. What defense? Your idiot team doesn't play any defense whether Love is in the game or not.
Anyways, I still like Minnesota getting this many points at home because theBucks are in tough early shape. The Bucks should be good again, but right now they are a physical mess struggling both offensively and defensively.
The problem is multiple injuries. Three key reserves are hurting. Chris Douglas-Roberts is out. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Jon Brockman are questionable. John Salmons, the key to the Bucks, didn't play during preseason. He logged 32 minutes in the Bucks' opening 95-91 loss to New Orleans and was noticeably rusty missing six of eight shots from the floor. It's going to take him a while to get going. Salmons had to play more than coach Scott Skiles would have liked because the Bucks suited up just 10 players.
Star center Andrew Bogut is working his way back from a series of gruesome injuries. He's not 100 percent. The Bucks shot less than 43 percent from the floor against the Hornets, who aren't a very good team anymore.
This is what Bogut said following that loss, "We still have a long way to go. "One through 12 we're not where we need to be, not just with the system but with what we need to do as far as team basketball and moving the ball."
The two teams met twice during preseason and Minnesota won each time, including the final tune-up in Milwaukee. The Timberwolves have beaten the Bucks 14 of 21 times at home.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Derek Mancini
Milwaukee at MINNESOTA (+4')
Getting back to the Milwaukee/Minnesota, it's obvious who the public like here, as they've pounded the Bucks with close to 90% of the action on the road team tonight. Been a lot of preseason hype associated with Milwaukee, and there's been an equal amount of negative press for the 'Wolves (incl. talks of contraction). But let's examine this match up objectively.
We already saw the Bucks struggle in their opener at New Orleans, which isn't exactly considered a cream of the crop opponent. Both Salmons and Jennings were suspect, and they forced the Hornets into only 9 turnovers. The Bucks front-line was their strength, but that also happens to be Minnesota's forte with Love and Beasley. Looking into the backcourt, the edge goes to Jennings of course, but Ridnour looked sharp, as did Telfair coming off the bench. And speaking of bench play, we saw some solid contributions from Tolliver and the rook Wesley Johnson.
This line is begging for Bucks money, and the public took the bait hook, line, and sinker. I'm keeping this play small, but either way, I believe these teams are closer than bettors are anticipating, especially at the Target Center. Bucks may win SU, but it'll be competitive throughout. Minnesota plus the points over Milwaukee Friday.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Bobby Maxwell,
Denver at NEW ORLEANS (+1)
For my comp selection, New Orleans has a very nice rotation and these guys always play tough at home. Denver looked good in its opening win over the Jazz, but the Carmelo Anthony trade talk has resumed after he said in the media on Thursday that sometimes it time for a change. I’m playing the home team in this one as the Hornets will win this one by 6.
New Orleans opened the season with a 95-91 home win over Milwaukee, cashing as a three-point home favorite. The Hornets got 22 points from David West, 18 from Marco Belinelli and 17 points and 16 assists from Chris Paul. Those three, along with Trevor Ariza and hard-working Emeka Okafor make this starting five very formidable. Key to the victory was them turning the ball over just nine times. Take care of the ball and the Hornets have a chance in every game.
In a 110-88 opening night win over the Jazz, Denver got 23 points from Anthony and 22 from Aaron Afflalo, but these guys turned the ball over 16 times.
Dating back to last season, Denver comes in on ATS slides of 3-10-1 as a road favorite, 7-15-1 overall, 1-4 against the Southwest Division, 1-9-1 on the road and 1-9-1 after getting just one day off. New Orleans lost three of four to the Nuggets last season, but they managed to cash in three of the four, including a December 98-92 home win as one-point underdogs. Sound familiar? Looks just like tonight’s game.
Denver comes in with distractions while New Orleans is looking to establish something. I’ll go with the underdog Hornets in this one but I fully expect them to win the game outright. Play New Orleans at home tonight!
5♦ NEW ORLEANS
Joel Tyson
Denver at NEW ORLEANS (P)
For your Friday free play, both the Nuggets and the Hornets opened the season with home wins, but it was Denver's 110-88 pasting of Utah that has me feeling that the Nuggets will make it look easy in the Big Easy this Friday night.
All quiet on the Carmelo Anthony front right now, and with the way Denver has held the upper-hand in this series of late, have to side with the visitor at this near pick price to pick up the victory.
Denver has won 3 in a row, and 8 of the last 10 series meetings, and they have also held the upper-hand at the ticket window, cashing in in 7 of those 10 games.
New Orleans is on a 7-19 spread slide their last 26 played against teams from the Northwest Division, and while CP3 is healthy, still prefer to side with the series numbers and back the Nuggets in this one.
2♦ DENVER
John Ryan
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -5
3* graded play on the Lakers as they take on the Suns set to start at 1:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Lakers will win this game by more than six points. Rebounding edge heavily in favor of the Lakers and they will also have a big edge in 2nd chance scoring opportunities. Phoenix is not a strong pressuring type of defensive team. Model projections call for the Lakers to have 12 or fewer turnovers. Note that the Lakers are a solid 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in games where they commit 12 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Take the Lakers.
Wunderdog Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons +6
By default, the Pistons will be better this year with a healthy Richard Hamilton and some players that gained valuable experience last year. It should be more noticeable especially at home. They did a lot of good things on the road, especially sharing the ball with seven of the Pistons reaching double-digits. Oklahoma City came on hard and fast last year and have a 30+ point scorer in Durant, but the road is another animal all together. Are they ready to be laying this kind of number this early? They are just 1-5 ATS on the road in their last six as a favorite of 5-10.5, while the Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog. I like Detroit in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LA Clippers +5.5
The Clippers fell to a very good defensive team (Portland) in their first game, but I expect them to have better luck against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA tonight.
The Warriors needed 46 points (on 18 of 24 shooting) from Monta Ellis to outlast Houston in their first game. It is highly unlikely that lightning will strike twice in the same spot.
With a veteran point guard like Baron Davis running the show, I expect the Clippers to have some success in slowing down the tempo to utilize their superior front court. Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman combined for 28 points and 25 boards in their first game, and I'm expecting even more point production out of these two tonight.
I just can't justify laying this many points with Golden State until it can show me that it can stop someone. Besides, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Warriors are a lousy 30-62-2 ATS in their last 94 games following a S.U. win. Take the points.
Info Plays
3* Dallas Mavericks -10.5
Reasons the Mavs cover:
1.) Dallas is fully healthy, and clearly a contender to win the Western Conference with the line-up they put out there every night. With a starting line-up of Dirk, Caron Butler, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Tyson Chandler this is a starting five that matches up with anyone in the league. Dallas beat Charlotte in their opener 101-86, and another double-digit blowout can be expected tonight.
2.) Memphis is not healthy, and thus they are thin inside. Both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, by far the Grizzlies two best post players, are each doubtful to play tonight. Gasol missed their opener with an ankle injury, while Randolph had to exit in the 1st quarter after injuring his back in a 104-119 home loss to Atlanta. Without these two on the floor, Dallas will get easy buckets inside all game long. At the same time, Memphis will be forced to shoot too many outside jumpers, which is not a strength of theirs. Bet the Mavericks at home.
Jack Jones
Lakers/Suns OVER 208
I'm going to take the OVER tonight in this match-up between Western Conference rivals. Phoenix has not changed their style as they are still the same up-tempo team we have been used to seeing over the last decade. The Suns know that they stand no chance against the Lakers if they make this a half-court game as Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol will own them. Playing at home, the Suns will get to set the tempo which obviously will be more of a run and gun style. I expect the Suns to find easy buckets in transition, while the Lakers will get easy chances inside on 2nd chance points as the Suns have been outrebounded by 10 boards per game through 2 contests.
Looking at the 6 most recent meetings between these teams which took place in the 2010 playoffs, I find that they have been very high-scoring. The Suns and Lakers have combined to score 235, 236, 227, 221, 204 and 214 in their last 6 meetings for an average of 222.8 PPG. As you can see, there's a lot of value with this OVER tonight. The Lakers are without Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom has taken his place in the starting line-up. With Odom, they definitely look to run more as he's the most versatile big men in the league. The Suns are 8-0 to the OVER in home games off an road win scoring 110 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER Friday.
Black Widow
1* on Orlando Magic +3.5
Orlando wants to make a statement tonight that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. They have yet to lose this season, going a perfect 7-0 in the preseason while outscoring opponents by more than 20 points/game. The Magic tipped off their season witha dominant 112-83 home victory over Washington last night. They are ready for the Heat, and many of their players have made that clear. "We're trying to take their heads off," Magic center Dwight Howard said. It will take some time for Miami to gel, so early in the season it's a great time to fade the Heat. Dwyane Wade played just 3 minutes in the preseason, so he didn't get a chance to work with Lebron, Chris Bosh and company. The Heat's biggest weakness is the fact that they have no post presence. Dwight Howard is in line for a monster game, and don't be surprised to see him finish with a line of 30-plus points and 20-plus rebounds as he leads his team to an upset victory. Orlando is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Magic are 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Orlando has won 14 of their last 17 meetings with Miami overall. Take the Magic and the points.