Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 3

Marc Lawrence

San Diego State vs. Fresno State
Play: San Diego State +3

Edges - Aztecs: 5-1 ATS away off SU home win; and head coach Rocky Long 18-7 ATS away in games versus conference foes off a SU win. Bulldogs: 4-11-1 ATS at home versus avenging conference opponents. With SDSU owning an overpowering rush advantage in this contest (+2.1 net YPR versus Fresno’s -1.1 net YPR), we’ll back the better team as the dog here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play n San Diego State.

Sleepyj

Cardinals / Dodgers Over 5.5

I'm not sold on Wainright this year..I don't think he is right. This is a tough spot for him facing this Dodgers lineup. Kershaw on the mound will pose issues for any team. I do think St. Louis will be swinging away and i would not be shocked to see them play small ball. i think each team will score 3 minimum...i can see a 6 run game or 7 run game here..if Kershaw throws a great game and La gets a nice lead..They will yank him right off the mound..I think we can also get a run or two off the LA pen..This one looks like a dead under..I think it goes over...St. Louis will need to be swinging away tonight..look for them to get some hits of Kershaw.

Wunderdog

Utah State @ BYU
Pick: BYU -20.5

Utah State has had some strong teams in recent years. Last season they were led by a great senior QB in Chuckie Keaton, but he and a lot of others from that team have moved on. Meanwhile, BYU has a pretty good QB of their own in Taysom Hill, who has his Cougars team on the radar at 4-0. Hill is the consummate dual-threat QB with six TD passes and seven rushing TDs in four games. The Cougars passed their biggest road game with flying colors at Texas, taking down the Longhorns methodically on both sides of the ball in a 41-7 romp. The Cougars are on a mission and have winnable road tests at Central Florida and Boise State left, and this team could be 12-0 come time for the selection of the Final Four. Utah State lost at Arkansas State and were thrashed at Tennessee, so hopes of staying within reach winning don't bode well here as a big dog. The Cougars have claimed ownership in the ranks of the Mountain West where they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11, and nothing here speaks of change. Lay the points on BYU.

SPORTS WAGERS

BALTIMORE -106 over Detroit

Unfortunately for the Tigers, baseball is a nine-inning game and with a bullpen like the one they have, that makes them almost unplayable during the post season. After allowing eight runs in the eighth inning yesterday, every pitcher in that Tigers pen will be praying his name doesn’t get called once Justin Verlander inevitably gets yanked. The Tigers pen is a mess, their defense is average and today’s starter is a shell of his former self.

The Verlander we once knew made very few appearances this season. He sports a 4.54 ERA and a 65/159 BB/K and has looked more like a run-of-the-mill starter than a former Cy Young award winner. His K rate decline stands out immediately and is likely correlated to diminished velocity. According to PITCHf/x, his average 93.1 MPH fastball is the lowest of his career, and actually marks the fifth straight season of velocity loss. A lack of a dominant heater forced him to paint the corners more and for the most part, Verlander failed to do so. Verlander’s bloated xERA of 4.24 is a product of both poor skills and an abnormally low hr/f%. Things actually could get worse for Verlander before they get better. At age 31 with more than 1,800 IP on his arm, we may in fact be looking at Verlander's new normal. His Swing and miss rate has declined from 11% in 2013 to 9% in 2014 and his first pitch strike rate is down from 65% to 60%. Both of those marks are close to league-average levels now. We can't assume that his walks and strikeouts will return to their previous levels until he improves those sub-indicators. The reality is that without his typical 95-98 MPH fastball to fall back on, Verlander has far less room for error, and it seems he's having trouble adjusting. Counting him out would be a mistake, but xERA casts an ominous shadow over the potential for an imminent return to form in these playoffs.

The Orioles will take that huge momentum from last night into this game. Being up 1-0, scoring all those runs and being at home in front of a crowd like the one that showed up last night gives the Orioles a significant psychological edge here. Having the far superior bullpen and defense doesn’t hurt either. Wei-Yin Chen did not produce much pre-All-Star break value (4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) but his skills were solid. A 1.5 HR/9 did him in. His skills have been much better since the break and his HR/9 is more under control. In fact, in the second half, Chen posted 7.7 K’s/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a 42 GB% groundball rate. His four-seam fastball velocity has increased by one mph and both his swing and miss rate and first pitch strike rate have surged. Chen’s slight fly-ball tilt will continue to give him risk but he has set himself up for a strong post season and he’s still a better option than Verlander. Frankly, this is a cheap price on the Orioles and we’re all over it.

Jim Feist

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Clayton Kershaw is an ace, but the Dodgers are 2-5 in Kershaw's last 7 starts vs. the Cardinals. The Dodgers tightened up in last year's NLCS against these Cardinals and the Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. St. Louis was NL champ a year ago and has multiple titles the last decade. They also have an ace in Adam Wainwright (20-9, 2.38 ERA). He is 11-6 on the road with a 1.72 ERA and held the Dodgers to a 1.13 ERA this season! The Cardinals are 19-9 in their last 28 overall, 53-24 in Wainwright's last 77 starts.

Jack Jones

Fresno State -3

The Fresno State Bulldogs (2-3) are certainly battle-tested after facing arguably the toughest schedule in the country through the first three weeks of the season. They had to travel to face both USC and Utah before falling to Nebraska at home. Obviously, they weren’t competitive in those games, but it has only helped them going forward as the schedule is much easier the rest of the way.

After beating up on Southern Utah 56-16, which only lost to Nevada 19-28 on the road, it came back with a dominant 35-24 win at New Mexico last week. It racked up 694 yards on Southern Utah before putting up 593 yards on the Lobos, outgaining them 593-382 for the game.

This offense has kicked into high gear behind the play of quarterback Brian Burrell, who is completing 58.2 percent of his passes for 902 yards with eight touchdowns and three picks. Marteze Walker has rushed for 457 yards and three scores, while Josh Harper has 30 receptions for 374 yards and two touchdowns.

San Diego State did not look good in a 7-28 road loss to Oregon State. Last week, it beat UNLV 34-17, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. It only outgained the Rebels 466-455 for the game. Also, that win came at a huge price as starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler suffered a shoulder injury and is expected to miss this game against Fresno. That’s a big loss because they were already without last year’s leading receiver in Ezell Ruffin, who had 1,136 receiving yards in 2013.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four of the last five with the lone exception being Fresno State’s 35-28 overtime win at SDSU last season. The Bulldogs are 8-0 ATS in their last eight vs. excellent rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.

Will Rogers

San Diego State vs. Fresno State
Pick: San Diego State

The San Diego State Aztecs will be on the road at Frenso State tonight, looking to avenge a home loss last year. That game went to overtime, and the Bulldogs won by a score of 35-28. Fresno State had one of the nation's best quarterbacks under center in Derek Carr, but he's moved on to the NFL, leaving the Bulldogs with a much less potent passing game. I like the Aztecs as a slight dog here.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Bulldogs Defense - Fresno State is 2-3 on the season, but both wins have come against very weak opposition. In losses to Utah, USC and Nebraska, the Bulldogs surrendered a total of 166 points. They rank 122nd in the nation allowing over 41 points per game.

2. San Diego State Rushing - RB Donnel Pumphrey has run for over 100 yards in three of his four games this season, including a near upset of North Carolina. He's run for 47 yards and nine TDs total.

3. X-Factor - The Aztecs have covered the point in 11 of their last 16 games versus teams from the Mountain West Conference.

Bob Balfe

Detroit Tigers -105

Baltimore put on a hitting clinic when the game was out of reach, but those big runs late have nothing to do with today. Detroit is a veteran team and this is the best staff in baseball. Detroit has the players and the experience to forget about yesterday and regain focus in a quick turnaround. Verlander is one of the best in the game who will make sure he goes long enough for the bullpen not to blow it.

Mark Borchard

St. Louis Cardinals +180

In a match-up between Kershaw (the BaseWinner #1 rated starting pitcher out of 149 in MLB) and Wainwright (BW#4) ,we have a true line of LAD -154. There is simply too much value here with the Cards.

We do highly respect Kershaw’s ability. To give you some perspective, if we plugged Wainwright into our model as a starter for the Dodgers (so that he would be pitching vs. himself), we would have the line at LAD -128, a full 26 point difference. If we plugged a league average pitcher into the Dodger starting role today, we would have the Cards favored at -120.

This is just a situation where a great pitcher (Wainwright) and a very good Cardinal team are getting too much value as a dog.

Both bullpens have pitched well recently. We give a slight edge to the Dodgers in this department.

Our projected raw lineup numbers (calculated based on opposing pitcher handedness and projected at-bats) also give the edge to the Dodgers.

LT Profits

Louisville vs Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse +3

The Louisville Cardinals are a bit depleted offensively right now, as after already missing receiver DeVante Parker with a broken toe, they lost starting quarterback Will Garner to a knee injury two weeks ago. The offense did not look good in a 20-10 win over a mediocre Wake Forest team last week with backup Reggie Bonnafon under center at home, and now Bonnafon starts on the road vs. the defense of the Syracuse Orange that forced five turnovers vs. Notre Dame last week. Syracuse has a dual threat quarterback in Terrel Hunt that is improving every week as a passer, as he completed 22-of-38 passes for 294 yards vs. the Irish. Syracuse also ranks 25th in the country in rushing at 232.5 yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry, and that newfound balance could give Louisville fits. Syracuse is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.

Jimmy Boyd

Baltimore Orioles -107

Baltimore took the Game 1 of the series 12-3 and I look for the Orioles to head back to Detroit with a 2-0 lead. Baltimore is being extremely undervalued as a small home favorite. The Orioles are 51-31 at Camden Yards.

The Tigers are getting some love for starting Justin Verlander. While he finished the season strong, he's got an ugly 4.74 ERA and 1.360 WHIP over 18 road starts this season and in his lone start at Baltimore he was tagged for 5 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over just 6 innings of work.

The Orioles counter with the reliable Wei-Yin Chen. Baltimore has won 11 of Chen's 15 home starts and he comes in having not allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 5 starts. He's also got a slight edge here with this being the first time the Tigers will have faced him in over two years.

Detroit is 5-11 in Verlander's last 16 starts as a road underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts against the AL East. Baltimore is 21-6 in their last 27 against a starter with a WHIP worse than 1.30 and 22-4 in Chen's last 26 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.

Road teams with a money line of +125 to -125 revenging a road blowout loss of 6 or more runs who have a winning percentage of 45%-55% are just 62-120 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Orioles.

Steve Janus

Los Angeles Angels -148

Kansas City was able to sneak out a victory in Game 1, which makes this a must win for the Angels. Los Angeles has the edge on the mount with Matt Shoemaker against Yordano Ventura. Shoemaker went 7-2 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.043 WHIP over 11 home starts during the regular season. Ventura has been up and down and comes in with his confidence rattled after nearly costing the Royals in their play-in game against the A's. The home crowd knows he's on edge and I expect Ventura to struggle to perform up to his potential in a hostile atmosphere.

System - Road teams with a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better on the season against an opponent with an ERA of 1.100 or better are just 135-241 (36%) against the money line since 1997.

TJ Pemberton

Louisville -140

I have bet on two Syracuse games this year and against them at home in both games. We took Maryland & Notre Dame ATS and I feel Syracuse is in that spot this Friday night against Louisville to drop another L at home. Syracuse has often found themselves often on 3 & long with nothing but a hope and a pray. They are coming off a hard fought game against the Irish and left their best on the field and they will be sluggish on this short week. The Cardinals defense is solid and even if they have to play backup QB Wolford who won the last game for them this offense will still control and feed off the defense giving them good field position. The Cardinals are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 conference games, & are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. The Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games & are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lets take the Cards here to get it done.

TJ Pemberton's Featured Package

Joe Williams

Cardinals at Dodgers
Play: Over 5.5

This seems like awfully risky business, taking the over in a game featuring two of the league's best, but 5.5 is a low total given the trends here. The over is actually 8-3-1 in Clayton Kershaw's past 12 starts against the Cardinals, and 3-1-1 in his past five at home against St. Louis. And he is just 2-5 in his past seven outings against the Cardinals. It won't be an offensive onslaught, but six runs is definitely a good possibility here.