SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +141 over L.A. ANGELS
As we’ve witnessed in their two playoff games so far, the Royals speed is a serious factor in close games and their ability to get runners over and in makes them very playable when taking back a tag. One can’t also ignore the confidence they have coming into this one. When a young and talented team gets on a role, they’re extremely difficult to beat and that applies here to the Royals. They also have an outstanding bullpen behind today’s starter, Yordano Ventura. Ventura has a BB/K split of 16/34 over his last 37 frames. His average fastball sits around 96 mph, which is tops in the majors among starters and his dominance is reflected in a 12% swing and miss rate. Ventura’s Ks should continue to be plentiful and figures to bode well against the Angels biggest threats, as Mike Trout struck out more than any AL hitter this year while Howie Kendrick, Josh Hamilton, David Freese and Kole Calhoun all struck out over 100 times. With elite fastball velocity and a strong groundball tilt, Ventura has the tools to thrive in any start.
Matt Shoemaker missed his final two starts of the regular season because of an oblique injury. He hasn’t pitched since September 15 and he’ll now be thrown into this pressure cooker with the Halos down 0-1. When healthy, Shoemaker has the goods to excel and one would assume he’s healthy here or he would not be starting in such a crucial game. Still, Shoemaker posted a K/9 above 8 just once between 2008 and 2013 in the minors so his current strikeout rate is a bit of a surprise. His fastball tops out around 90 MPH, so we'd assume he's getting it done with superior off-speed offerings. But having spent six seasons in the minors, we’re somewhat reluctant to label him as an ace. Furthermore, the Royals are a team that makes contact. They struck out the least amount of times in the entire league and they also have a combined 19 hits in 41 AB’s against Shoemaker for a combined batting average of .463. That’s a small sample size but Shoemaker is going to need all those balls in play to be hit at people to succeed. We’re not suggesting that Ventura has a big edge over Shoemaker. What we are suggesting is that the Royals have just as good a chance of winning and maybe more so. They have a big edge in the small ball department, they have momentum and they’re taking back a pretty sweet price as well. We’ll play the value.
SPORTS WAGERS
SASKATCHEWAN +4½ over Calgary
It’s October in Saskatchewan and what that means is much colder weather (forecast is -2 degrees Fahrenheit by game time) and unpredictable winds at Mosaic Stadium. The Stampeders are 11-2 overall and they’ll face a Riders team with serious QB issues that has one win in their last three games since Darian Durant went down, that being a come from behind, OT victory against the 1-11 Redblacks in Saskatchewan no less. That sets up this great buy-low/sell high opportunity.
It should be noted that Calgary isn’t the same without their starting QB either but the market is putting far more emphasis on the Riders QB issues. Bo Levi Mitchell will miss his third consecutive start. In his place, Drew Tate and the Stamps lost to Montreal, 31-15 and defeated B.C., 14-7. In two weeks with Drew Tate, the Stamps have scored a combined 29 points and the 14 points they scored last week came on field goals and singles. Against Montreal two weeks ago, on the road, Calgary was outgained by over 100 yards and lost by 16. Now this same team with Tate getting the start again is being asked to spot road points in a difficult venue.
Say goodbye to Tino Sunseri and hello to Seth Doege, the former Texas Tech QB that threw for 4,250 passing yards and 36 touchdowns while completing 70.2 per cent of his passes in his senior year for the Red Raiders. Doege got into the game last week when the Riders were down 24 points to Edmonton so we’re not going to put much emphasis on his 61-yards through the air in 11 pass attempts. Doege makes his first CFL start and he’s not going to have to be brilliant for the Riders to win. Reports are that this kid is cool, calm and confident and that he had a very good week in practice. The Riders are still a 9-4 outfit that has won five of six games at Mosaic and that almost always plays tough at home. Calgary has lost the last two games here by scores of 35-13 and 30-25 and while playing a rookie QB in his first CFL start is risky, spotting road points at this venue with an overvalued squad carries far more risk. We’re calling the Riders outright but will gladly accept these points.
Pass NCAAF
Dave Price
Louisville/Syracuse Under 46.5
Odds makers have set over/under lines for four of Louisville's games this season, and it has finished under the total in all four. Syracuse has finished below the number in each of its last three games, and I expect the under trends to continue. The Cardinals rank third in the nation in total defense with 225.2 yards per game allowed. They rank 10th in scoring defense with just 14.0 points allowed per game. Syracuse relies heavily on its running game, but it won't get anything easy on the ground against the nation's top rushing defense. While the Louisville stop unit has been stout, the offense has taken a big step back, ranking 81st in the country in total offense. The Cardinals are 16-5 under in their last 21, including 6-1 under in their last seven on the road. It's also worth noting that Louisville is 6-0 under in road games the last three seasons after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games.
Sam Martin
San Diego St. at Fresno St.
Prediction: Fresno St.
Tough spot for the visiting San Diego State Aztecs, who will be without starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler after suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder last week. In steps freshman Nick Bawden, who has yet to make a single pass attempt in his short college career. We certainly don't like backing freshmen with zero experience, and especially not if that game is played on the road.
After starting slow against far better competition (USC, Utah, and Nebraska), Fresno State finally played a few winnable games and came through with flying colors. They put up big numbers both on the ground and through the air in double-digit wins and ATS covers against South Utah and at New Mexico, including 300+ passing yards in both games. That type of offense along with a renewed sense of confidence spells doom for an Aztecs team that will have to rely heavily on their freshman to try to keep up. Fresno State capitalizes on SD State mistakes and wins easily!
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Kansas City Royals over the Angels of Anaheim, as the two continue their divisional series at the Big A. I was confident in the Royals last night, despite Jeff Weaver being on the hill for the Halos and the Royals just out of their emotional, one-game playoff.
Kansas City knows that one more win gives them two chances to wrap this series up over the weekend, at home in Kauffman Stadium. The Royals travel well, and obviously rolled in from incredible momentum of Tuesday's come-from-behind one-game playoff win over the Oakland Athletics, to pull off last night's extra-inning game in Anaheim.
I know the Angels are probably better collectively, but the value is in playing the big-priced pup here.
5♦ KANSAS CITY
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Dodgers and Cardinals to go OVER the posted total. At the time of this writing, the total is a ridiculous 5 1/2.
I'm not going to sit here and spout off all these numbers and stats that pit one pitcher against the other or one team against the other... I'm simply going to tell you that this number is simply too low and only makes sense to go against the public and take the over.
If you remember last year's playoffs, you'll remember Michael Wacha out-dueling Clayton Kershaw as the Cardinals pounded him all over the diamond in a 9-0 Cardinals blowout.
I realize both of these pitchers are Cy Young Award candidates and this game promises to be one of the best pitching matchups of the entire post-season... but let's not forget that both teams can hit for average and pound the long ball.
5-6 runs just isn't very much... as you can see from the first Baltimore/Detroit game and the Oakland/KC game and the San Francisco/Pittsburgh game. These games were all high scoring and I expect tonight's game to have at least 7 runs... taking us easily over the total.
Take the over as your free play of the day.
2♦ ST. LOUIS-L.A. DODGERS OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the St. Louis Cardinals against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and not because I genuinely believe Adam Wainwright is better than Clayton Kershaw, but more so because I think Kershaw - for as good as he is - tanks in the postseason and could struggle today.
The Cardinals are the defending National League champs, and you have to acknowledge that when looking at big prices. You cannot ignore the defending league champion getting this big a price, when the favorite is handing the ball to a pitcher who over his career is 1-3 in the playoffs with an ERA of 4.23.
So while Kershaw is the odds-on favorite to win his third Cy Young Award in four years, chew on this for a moment: his last postseason appearance was against the Cardinals in Game 6 of the 2013 NLCS, during which he allowed seven runs over four innings.
I'll have you list both, because that's the reason you're getting the price you are, so be sure Wainwright and Kershaw are both on your ticket. Remember, this is just a free pick. My main opinion tonight is in college football.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Brad Wilton
Tonight's comp play is the Aztecs plus the points at Frenso State.
Not saying I don't trust this Bulldogs team, but when it gets right down to it, I definitely do not trust this Bulldogs team to cover this number!
Fresno State is just 2-4 against the spread as the home favorite since last season, and they are just 1-3-2 against the spread the last 6 times they have faced the Aztecs.
San Diego State is on an 8-4 spread run their last dozen road games and are fresh off a confidence-building 34-17 win over UNLV their last time on the gridiron.
Go ahead and take the points as San Diego State hangs in their all the way tonight at Bulldog Stadium.
1♦ SAN DIEGO STATE
Dr Bob
Louisville (-2½) 26 SYRACUSE 21
Louisville has a very good defense that’s allowed just 12.3 points and 212 yards per game at 3.4 yards per play in 4 games against FBS opponents that would combine average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. That ranks the Cardinals among the very best defensive teams in the nation (behind top defense Stanford) but Syracuse could be a test, as teams with mobile, running quarterbacks tend to be relatively better against better defensive teams, given the off script nature of a quarterback taking off and making a positive play when the defense has done everything correctly. Syracuse quarterback Terrel Hunt has run for 306 yards in just 3 ½ games at 6.8 yards per running play and Orange have two very good backs in Prince-Tyson Gulley (280 yards at 7.0 ypr) and Adonis Ameen-Moore (208 yards at 6.3 ypr). Louisville has been very good against the run (3.7 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp against an average team) but Syracuse has averaged 5.9 yard per rushing play with Hunt in the game despite facing a slate of good run defenses that would allow just 4.4 yprp to an average team. My model projects 5.5 yprp for Syracuse in this game and they’ll need to have success on the ground given that they’re expected to be held to just 4.0 yards per pass play by a suffocating Louisville pass defense.
Louisville’s offense should also struggle, as the Cardinals have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively this season and rate at 0.8 yppl worse than average with backup quarterback Reggie Bonnafon starting for a 2nd consecutive week for injured starter Will Gardner. Bonnafon’s passing numbers are 0.7 yards per pass play below the team average but his running (100 yards on 14 runs) adds 0.5 yards per rushing play to the Cardinals’ run rating. There will also likely be more runs than pass plays again this week, which will cut down on the turnovers a bit. Overall, Louisville’s offense is about the same with Bonnafon at quarterback but I still project just 330 yards at 4.3 yards per play for the Cardinals in this game against a solid Syracuse defense that’s allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, the math favors Louisville by just 1 point with a total of 47 points but I’m going to lean with the Cardinals on the basis of a 41-4-2 ATS situation that applies to them tonight.
Red Dog Sports
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Play: Cardinals +180
Plenty of value on the Cardinals as Wainwright is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.38 in his last 3 starts and allowed 0, 0, 1, and 1 run in his last 4 starts. Clayton Kershew pitches for LA and he did allow runs in his last 5 starts. Kershaw was great this year and will win the Cy Young Award and possbily the MVP. The team was 23-4 in his starts but he did lose to St. Louis last October in the playoffs and allowed 10 hits/7 runs in just 4 innings. The Cards are not as good as last year but have some decent talent. The Cards are 23-9 in Wainwright's starts. Hope to see a 2-1 type of game. Small play on the Cardinals.
Dr Bob
San Diego State (+3) 31 FRESNO STATE 30
San Diego State will be without starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler tonight and true freshman Nick Bawden will make his debut. Bawden was more highly rated coming out of a high school than Kaehler was a few years ago but I’ve downgraded the Aztecs mediocre pass attack to 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average based on the normal drop off when a second year starter is replaced by an inexperienced quarterback and also for the absence of top WR Ezell Ruffin, who is expected to miss another month or more. Bawden should still have a good debut against a Fresno defense that’s allowed 9.9 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would average a combined 6.2 yppp against an average defense. A lot of that ridiculously high number is due to variance, as it’s unlikely that the Bulldogs will continue to give up 17.6 yards per catch, but they still rate at 1.8 yppp worse than average even after a significant adjustment. Bawden is projected to average a solid 6.7 yards per pass play while the Aztecs’ rush attack adds a mediocre 5.0 yards per rushing play. Overall, I project 5.8 yards per play for the Aztecs in this game but there is a lot of variance in that projection since Bawden could be considerably worse or considerably better than I’ve assumed and Fresno could continue to allow over 17 yards a completion.
Fresno’s offense has been a bit below average through 5 games (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and the Bulldogs are actually 0.3 yppl worse than average with Brian Burrell at quarterback - although that difference is made up for by being less interception prone than backup Brandon Connette is. San Diego State has also had issues in pass defense, allowing 7.6 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense, but I’ve also adjusted their rating (as I did with Fresno) and rate the Aztecs’ pass defense at 0.9 yppp worse than average while they remain very good against the run (4.1 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp against an average defense). The battle between Fresno’s offense and San Diego State’s defense is pretty even and my math projects 5.6 yppl for the Bulldogs in this game.
San Diego State has been the better team this season and even after adjustments that have aided Fresno’s overall rating, and adjusting a couple of points for San Diego State playing an inexperienced quarterback I still would favor the Aztecs in this game. I like the dog here and lean with the Over.
OC Dooley
Louisville -2
At most offshore locations Louisville opened as a much higher favorite (-3’) than what we are looking at in the early evening hours (eastern zone) due to an injury a knee injury to star quarterback Will Gardner who will NOT start turning the football over to freshman Reggie Bonnafon. But who is behind center for Louisville does not take away from the fact that the Cardinals are REVENGING a loss in their last visit to Syracuse which was a couple of years ago when current NFL starter Teddy Bridgewater was running the show. Even though offensive oriented Bobby Petrino is their head coach Louisville still thrives on DEFENSE allowing just 14 points per game (tied for ninth-best nationally). Host Syracuse is in a perfect emotional letdown spot as they failed in primetime last week versus a high profile opponent on National TV (Notre Dame) even though the Irish turned over the football 5 different times. Here is an amazing “42-14” SYSTEM (75% the past five years) which plays ON road favorites like Louisville following a game where the defense allowed “fourteen or less” points, against an opponent who permitted 31+ points on consecutive outings