Jeff Benton
Orlando -9' at NEW JERSEY
For Friday’s free play in NBA action, I’ll lay the big chalk with the Magic in New Jersey.
As is the case with any sport, you don’t ever want to overreact based on the results of one game. That said, how freaking impressive was Orlando on Wednesday night? They annihilated a very talented 76ers team 120-106, and it wasn’t even that close as the Magic led 70-47 at halftime and 100-69 after three quarters! They shot 55.6 percent from the field and made 16 of 29 three-point tries (55.2 percent). What was really impressive was the way Orlando – playing without sharpshooting swingman Rashard Lewis – spread the wealth, as six players scored in double figures.
If nothing else, Orlando proved to me in one game that last year’s run to the Eastern Conference finals was not a fluke and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this team is playing deep into June again. As for the Nets, the fact they got beat at the buzzer by the god-awful Timberwolves in their season opener – New Jersey lost 95-93 as a two-point ROAD favorite – tells you all you need to know about what lies ahead for this franchise.
The Magic were a very strong road team last year (27-14). And if you take away a meaningless 103-93 loss at New Jersey in the third-to-last game of last season when Orlando had nothing to play for, the Magic have won four in a row and six of seven against the Magic (5-2 ATS), including two blowouts in New Jersey (95-70; 102-92). Also, the favorite has cashed in eight of the last 11 meetings. Total mismatch in personnel here, and if the Magic can destroy a playoff-caliber team like Sixers the way they did the other night, they’ll do the same to the below-average Nets.
3♦ ORLANDO
Strike Point Sports
Take Take West Virginia (-3) over South Florida
This is just a case of fading a USF team that we never thought was very good. The Bulls were undefeated two weeks ago, and after a couple of real tests against Cincy and Pitt they showed they just can't compete with the best of the Big East. South Florida was routed by both, and while I don't think WVU will dominate in Tampa in this one they are the more complete team. Give me Jarrett Brown at quarterback over B.J. Daniels as well as Noel Devine at tailback over USF's grouping of backs. Mountaineers make it five straight with the win over the Bulls.
Jim Kruger
West Virginia at South Florida
Last week we had Pitt -6 over USF and it turned out to be an easy winner, 41-14. Pitt converted 11 of 16 third downs while USF only managed 3 of 11. There was surprisingly little passing by USF, just 8 for 13. Starting QB BJ Daniels was yanked during the game. West Virginia played a very emotional home game against UConn last week after the murder of one of the UConn players. The Huskies were to travel to Miami on Sunday for the funeral. WV was thoroughly outplayed as UConn gained over 500 yards and did get the spread cover.
The past two seasons witnessed South Florida start out like gangbusters, 5-0 last year and 6-0 in 2007. The Bulls then faded both seasons going 3-5 and then 3-4. You have to believe the team is concerned they are going down the same path this year after a 5-0 start followed by two losses.
Both teams have traveled to Syracuse and beat the Orange outright. The Mountaineers had a more convincing win, 34-13, outgaining the 'Cuse 385 to 222 with almost a 2 to 1 advantage in time of possession. USF played their Syracuse match a week earlier winning 34-20. However, they were outgained 344 to 333 and had only 14 first downs to 23 for the Orange. The Bulls were fortunate as they had a +4 turnover margin including a pick six.
USF has done a very good job defensively against the Mountaineers the past three meetings holding their ground game to just a 153 yard average. This is a desperate USF team, but one that played 2 FCS schools in non-conference action and the worst FBS squad, Western Kentucky. In two games against quality opponents they have lost each by 17+ points. WV is one of the top ten run defenses in the nation which means USF QB Daniels will have to have a quality game, something he hasn't had since playing against Syracuse. USF has been average against the run which means WV RB Noel Devine could have a big night.
Take West Virginia -3
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Jersey Nets +9
Bottom Line: I'll take the Nets at home catching a generous amount of points tonight. The Nets are an impressive 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog and they have played the Magic tough each of the last 2 times they've faced off, losing by just 3 in Orlando to cover the spread and winning outright by 10 at home to cover the number. After blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter to lose to Minnesota Wednesday, expect the Nets to bounce back strong with a solid performance tonight to beat the spread. Take the points.
LT Profits
Orlando Magic at New Jersey Nets
The Orlando Magic have one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but this seems like an awfully big spread to be laying on the road vs. a New Jersey Nets team that covered the last two head-to-head meetings last season, including an outright upset here in Jersey.
The Nets blew a 19-point lead in their season opener on Friday, when they lost on the road at the buzzer vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Nets are very young this year, but they do have some up and coming talent. Perhaps most encouragingly, New Jersey had three players record double-doubles on opening night (Brook Lopez, Yi Jianlian and rookie Terrence Williams), which may present some matchup problems for the Magic.
Now make no mistake, Orlando is the better team here and they obliterated the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday 120-106 in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score. However, Dwight Howard will not his usual big advantage in the middle tonight as Lopez is one if the best young centers in the league with a ton of upside, and the youthful Nets will play their hearts out in an attempt to won the support of the local fans in their home opener.
Whether or not that will be enough to pull an upset remains to be seen, but we do see New Jersey sticking within single-digits in here.
Pick: Nets +9
Dave Price
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -6
I expect Arenas and the Wiz to struggle against the more athletic Hawks on the road tonight. Arenas had a nice coming out party against the Mavs, but he'll have to do even more to give Washington a chance here. I think you'll see Washington really missing Antawn Jamison tonight against a deep and versatile Hawks lineup. The Hawks did not play their best, especially on the defensive end, and they still won their season opener by 11 over the Pacers. You can bet Atlanta will be much more focused on the defensive end this evening in its first division game. Washington went only 3-13 ATS vs. division opponents last season, losing by an average score of 87.6 to 98.9. Arenas is back but Jamison is out so that figures out pretty evenly in my book. Lay the points.
RANDALL THE HANDLE
CHARLOTTE –2½ over New York
What we have here is a contrast in styles, as the Bobcats are coached by the methodical and defensive minded Larry Brown while the Knicks style is “get a shot off in seven seconds” under Mike D'Antoni. If defense beats offense than the Cats most definitely have a great chance to win and cover here. No doubt Brown has the defense to compete. The Bobcats were blown out by Boston but that could work to our advantage here, as the blowout has resulted in a good price for this one. The Bobcats couldn’t have had a worse shooting night than they did on Wednesday but they played a tremendous defensive game that kept them in it for the first half. Charlotte scored just two points in the first nine minutes of the third and that was pretty much the story of the game for them. They hit 31% from the field and went 0-10 from beyond the arc. However, this is a good team that would’ve made the playoffs last season had they not lost eight of its last nine. They’ll be ready to go tonight after that uninspiring offensive show on in Boston. The Knicks have no defense, nor do they have a go-to-guy. The Knicks are rebuilding in anticipation of signing King James next off-season. David Lee is the real deal and Nate Robertson is an exciting player off the bench. However, they virtually have no proven guard and no defense and a coach like Larry Brown should be able to exploit these glaring weaknesses. Play: Charlotte –2½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Toronto –4 over MEMPHIS
This choice has nothing to do with the Raps win over the Cav’s although it was an impressive one indeed. The Raps went 2-6 in the preseason and the consensus was that this is going to be a .500 team at best. The good news is that if we listened to the experts we’d all be broke. Toronto is deep, talented and if one or two guys have a bad game there are two or three other guys that can have a big game. Against Cleveland on Wednesday, Chris Bosh had an awful game offensively, yet the Raps built a 20-point lead before winning by 10. The Raps have shooters, great guard play, a great shooting big man in the middle and perhaps most importantly, they have confidence and they know they’re onto something good. The Grizz have a very good foundation with Rudy Gay, Paul Gasol and O.J. Mayo but they also have some egos to deal with in Zach Randolph and of course A.I. These guys could be more of a distraction than an asset and Memphis sure didn’t look very good in its opener when the Pistons beat them in every quarter. They have a coach (Lionel Hollins) that has never had success and just six returning players from last year’s roster. The Raps come in here raring to go with a ton of confidence and might just bury this host. Play: Toronto –4 +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.83 over DALLAS
The Panthers have just five points through its first 10 games of the season. However, they’re close to breaking out and this could be the day. They held a 2-0 lead on the defending Cup champions in Pittsburgh last Friday before losing in a shootout. Wednesday, the Panthers had two leads on the visiting Senators, outplayed them but gave up three goals in the second period and couldn't find the equalizer. The perception is that the Panthers stink but they don’t. This is a very talented team that is going to cash in with some nice tags on them and this is certainly one game they can win. The Stars were lucky to beat the Leafs on Wednesday and although they’re a decent team they’re a huge risk as a big favorite because they’re very beatable. The Stars have struggled at home and the best remedy for what ails the Panthers could very well be a little road trip. Florida already has wins over Chicago, Philadelphia and again, they took the Pens to OT. This is a very sweet price on a undervalued team and most definitely worth a bet. Play: Florida +1.83 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +1.68 over CHICAGO
This one is much more about playing against the Blackhawks than it is about playing the Canadiens because the more I watch Chicago the more convinced I am that they’re about the most overvalued team in the NHL. Chicago is a very respectable 7-4-1 but a close look reveals the easiest schedule in the league thus far. They opened the year in Europe by splitting games with Florida. Its last four wins came against the Preds twice, the Oilers and the Wild. Chicago has already lost to Detroit, Vancouver, Dallas and Nashville and its last six games have come against a slew of offensively challenged squads. They also played last night in Nashville, lost 2-0 and mustered up a measly 22 shots. Hopefully the Habs will respond from that 6-1 loss in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Prior to losing that one they had won four straight including a win over the Rangers and Atlanta in which they carried the play both games and deserved to win. Carey Price will be back in net tonight and that can only help our chances because not only is he better than Halak, it gives the rest of the team a boost as well. Anyway, the Blackhawks are not nearly as good as advertised and will get exposed as such many times. Overlay. Play: Montreal +1.68 (Risking 2 units).
Mike Rose
New Jersey Nets +9.5
The Orlando Magic swing back into action on Friday night when they face off with the New Jersey Nets in the Garden State. Orlando beat Philadelphia 120-106 in its first game of the season on Wednesday night, while Jersey is coming off of a 95-93 loss in Minnesota.
Let's get one thing straight about the Magic: They're not nearly as good of a team right now without F Rashard Lewis in the lineup as they were at the end of last season. They're not going to shooting 55% from downtown every night, and Gs Jason Williams and JJ Redick aren't going to combine for 25 points in every contest either. So don't let the 120-point outburst spook you on the eve of Halloween. Things will get back to normal for Orlando sooner or later, and I think that that point comes on Friday.
The Nets aren't exactly the cream of the crop in the NBA this year, but they've played well in their L/2 games against Orlando, winning 103-93 on their home court and losing 105-102 at Amway Arena. This year's Jersey team looks a lot different without the services of G Vince Carter (who is now with the Magic), but with the additions of G Courtney Lee (acquired in the Vince Carter deal) and rookie G Terrence Williams, this team has the firepower to stick with the hot shooters of HC Stan Van Gundy's Magic. On Wednesday night, the Nets had the T-Wolves dead to rights, but allowed Minnesota to outscore them 31-15 in the final stanza to ultimately blow the game. With tonight being the home opener for New Jersey, expect different results in the 4th in the same situation arises.
The Nets ended last season on a whopping 18-7-1 ATS run against the Eastern Conference, including those two covers against the Magic. Orlando may be the best ATS team in the land over the L/2 seasons, but it has struggled of late against teams with poor records, going just 1-4 ATS in its L/5 road contests against teams that are under .400. This one should end up a lot closer than the oddsmakers think. Book it!!!
Back the New Jersey Nets plus the points
Rocketman
Milwaukee @ Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -6.5
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU and ATS overall vs Milwaukee last 3 years. Bucks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall. Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic. Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference. Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Bucks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Bucks are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!
LEE KOSTROSKI
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Detroit Pistons
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder +5
I love the makeup of this Oklahoma City Thunder team and expect big improvements from this young and up-and-coming franchise. I can't say the same for the Pistons though as they're one team I expect to take a big step backwards and not win as many games as they did a season ago. Detroit has gone from 64 wins in 2005-05 to 53 wins the next season, to 59 wins in 07-08 and then just 39 wins a season ago. Why the big decline last season? A good argument could be made it was due to the trade of Chauncey Billups to Denver for Allen Iverson. The Iverson experiment failed miserably as it caused a rift within the team especially with Richard Hamilton. Hamilton clearly needs a point guard to set him up as he's a terrific spot up shooter on the catch and curl but he's not great at creating his own shot. Last year 'Rip' averaged 18.3 ppg compared to 17.3 from the previous season but his shooting percentage was worse at .44% versus 48% in 2007-08. His players efficiency was also worse at 15.27 last year compared to 16.13 in 07-08.
Detroit has been known for their defense that wasn't the case last season. Two years ago the Pistons allowed just 90.1 ppg but last season that number jumped dramatically to 94.7 ppg. Most importantly their defensive efficiency number rose to 105.2, up from 100.9 in 2007-08. Gone from last year's Pistons teams are Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess and Allen Iverson which is a combined 39 ppg and 20.1 rpg. Now they're relying on Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell and newcomers Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon to revive the Pistons winning ways. I'm not sold on Detroit being a playoff contender this season.
Oklahoma City on the other hand is going to be vastly improved this year and much closer to 40 wins this year not the 23 they won last season. The Thunder have a great young nucleus with Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook which should be solid for years to come. An overlooked addition to last year's team was 7-ft center Nenad Krstic who came over from the Nets mid-season in 2008-09. He gives the Thunder the post presence they sorely lacked prior to his arrival which helps keep defenses honest for Durant on the perimeter. In the opening game the Thunder had great scoring balance as Westbrook scored 14 points, Durant 25, Green 24 and Krstic chipped in 20-points.
OKC covered 58.5% of their road games last season with a 24-17 ATS overall record, 23-16 ATS as a road dog. The Thunder also closed the season with a moneymaking 8-6 ATS road run. Detroit cost their backers a ton of money last season at home with a 13-30 ATS overall record, 11-24 as a home chalk. Grab the points here with OKC and don't be surprised when they pull the upset!
John Ryan
Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland finds themselves at 0-2 and are in a strong need for a win. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-15 ATS for 75% winners since 1996. Play against home dogs in non-conference games off a close home win by 3 points or less. AiS shows a 72% probability that Cleveland will win this game by 12 or more points. Play against home dogs in non-conference games and off a close home win by 3 points or less. Here is a remarkable system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% winners since 2004. Play against home dogs off a close home win by 3 points or less, first half of the season. Minnesota is just 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons; 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
Wunderdog
Florida at Dallas
Pick: Dallas -195
The Florida Panthers, after winning their opener in a shootout, have tasted victory just once since and are really struggling to find the net. They have tallied just 18 gals in the nine games played since the opener, and an even less seven in their four road games for less than two tallies per contest. The Stars have been playing well of late, and have been exactly what a coach likes to see on the offensive end - highly consistent, as they have scored four goals in each of their last four games. The Panthers have only reached that mark twice all season, and have never made it to five, so their chances here are not that great. The Stars have capitalized at home against weak opponents cashing in a 55-23-3 mark against opponents with a road mark of under .400. The Panthers’ 7-19 mark in their last 26 puts the exclamation point on this one. The Stars get the call.
New York Knicks at Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte -1
The Charlotte Bobcats couldn't get anything going on offense in their first game as their dreadful 31% shooting backed by a frigid 0-10 mark from the arc lead to an offensive output of just 59 points. The Celtics might have had something to do with that flying high in their opener in the Garden. The resistance will be much less tonight against a shooting Knicks team that plays little in the way of defense. Teams off of poor scoring performances are a very good wager in their next game as teams scoring under 65, come back to cover the spread in their next game at a rate of 61.3%! The Bobcats are a tough out at home, finishing last season at 15-6 ATS, and the Knicks just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against these Cats and 2-5 ATS in Charlotte. I'm going with the Bobcats here.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
The Bulls are in the second game of back to backs and fatigue could be a factor. Boston held Charlotte to 59 points in its last game. They are a perfect 8-0 Under the last three seasons when coming off a win by 30 or more points. They are also 16-5 Under coming off a game where the final combined score was 160 or less. With 10 of the past 13 meetings, including 7 of 8 here in Beantown, between these teams going Over, aren't we due for an Under tonight?
Play on: Under
Scott Delaney
Oklahoma City at Detroit
I’m 1-0-1 with a close call on the push on opening night, but I’m looking to stay somewhat perfect with the Pistons-Thunder game going Over the posted number tonight. It’s not like me to give out an NBA total too often, so when I do – stand up and take notice!
Let’s start with the boys from Motown, who had question marks with new faces joining a core of players who enjoyed a championship together. Those questions were answered Wednesday night, when the Pistons trounced Memphis, 96-74. Newcomers Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva popped for 22 and seven points, respectively, while reliable veteran Richard Hamilton poured in 25 to lead the way.
The University of Connecticut trifecta – Gordon, Villanueva and Hamilton - went a combined 17 of 31 from the floor. So, while there were concerns coming into the preseason, I’d say the flow looked pretty darned good with this Detroit rotation.
As for Oklahoma City, third-year player Kevin Durant looked all grown up in a 102-89 blowout of Sacramento, scoring 25 points and grabbing 11 boards. The Thunder made it look easy after opening up a 39-22 lead after the first quarter.
It wasn’t just Durant, though, as the scoring was balanced by a total of four players in double figures while Switzerland-transplant Thabo Sefolosha contributed eight.
I see these two putting together quite the entertaining game tonight, and the score to get past the mid 190s.
1♦ Pistons/Thunder OVER
Tony Weston
Of course I delivered yesterday as North Carolina pulls off the outright win against Virginia Tech.
I’m giving you another winner as I’m taking the Golden State Warriors on the road at the Phoenix Suns.
Installed as a 5-point underdog against the Houston Rockets, the Warriors nearly pulled off the outright win, barely losing 107-108 Wednesday in both teams’ season opener.
The Suns, on the other hand, were installed as a mere 3-point favorite and could muster only a 2-point victory against the lowly Clippers, beating Los Angeles 109-107 Wednesday.
In the last four meetings between these two the Warriors have gone 2-1-1 ATS, including their last meeting on April 15 when the Warriors covered as a 9 1/2 point underdog at Phoenix, losing 117-113.
Most importantly, in this series, the underdog has gone 3-0-1 ATS and will cover again tonight as Golden State stays close enough.
3♦ WARRIORS