Brass Balls Picks
FREE PICK RECORD BEGINNING 9/1/13
24 - 10 Win Run
10/4/13 RED SOX - 135 (LESTER-MOORE)
bookiemonsters
154-106-3 run
30-23-4 run last 57 plays
pod islanders under 5.5
Dr BobFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UTAH STATE (-5½) 29 BYU 24FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams are pretty even, as both are better than average offensively and very good defensively. Utah State is slightly better offensively, rating at 0.2 yards per play better than average (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while BYU’s attack has been just average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl). The Cougars, however, make up that small difference on defense, as they rate at 1.3 yppl better than average (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) while Utah State’s defense is 1.1 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.2 yppl). This game is very even from a yards per play perspective but BYU is expected to run more plays from scrimmage while Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton gives the Aggies an advantage in projected turnovers (he’s thrown just 1 interception and only 12 in 757 career passes). Overall the math favors Utah State by just 3 points but BYU applies to a negative 8-32-2 ATS situation. I’d stay away from this one.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh +125 over ST. LOUISFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Lance Lynn is no Adam Wainwright but when he’s on his game, he’s damn close. No question that Lynn has a chance to throw a great game today but this isn’t about fading him, although current Pirates have hit .282 off Lynn in 174 career AB’s. This one is all about playing the Pirates plus a tag in a game they have a great chance of winning.
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What happened to the Pirates yesterday was a direct result of A.J. Burnett walking Adam Wainwright to lead off the third inning. That opened the floodgates to a seven-run inning and the game was over real fast. That’s not going to deter us from coming right back on the Pirates today with Gerrit Cole going. Cole has flashed his rotation-anchor upside since his recall with a 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 50% groundball rate. Cole’s 96 mph average four-seam fastball and 10% swinging strike rate give him more strikeout upside than he has shown, and his off-speed stuff has been dominant too. Cole has thrown his change-up and curveball 232 times; batters have managed only two extra-base hits against those pitches. Down the stretch, Cole went 4-0 in five starts with an ERA of 1.69 after whiffing 39 batters in 32 innings. This kid is absolutely the real deal and with his feet wet and his confidence soaring, he’s about as good as it gets when being offered a tag.
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Detroit -1 +107 over OAKLANDFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If Bartolo Colon and the A’s beat us here, good for them but this isn’t the regular season anymore, where average pitchers get by from time to time. Both the A’s and Colon have had more luck than any combination in baseball and it figures to all come crashing down in this series. Oakland is an average team while Colon isn’t even an average pitcher. Last summer, we marveled at how well Bartolo Colon was doing. We couldn’t help but wonder, “wow, how does this old guy do it?” That question was answered when he was suspended for 50 games for PED use. But a supposedly drug-free Colon has continued to impress this year. Well, sort of. Colon's xERA by month this year: 3.60/3.73/4.20/4.64/6.46. So while his ERA looks spectacular, Colon is anything but with two pitches in his arsenal with one of those two being a straight 87 MPH fastball. Somehow, someway, the A’s thrived in the regular season but this is a collection of average hitters, a below average rotation and a 50 pound overweight pitcher with poor skills getting the call for the opener. They make fictional movies out of stuff like this and it would be of no surprise to see the A’s go quickly and quietly in this series.
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Max Scherzer and the Tigers are one of the baseball’s best combinations. Scherzer has 240 K’s in 214 innings to go along with a full skills supported ERA of 2.90. Overall, Scherzer went 21-3 and 25 of his 32 starts were of the pure quality variety. On the road, he was even better with 2.28 ERA over 16 starts with a BAA of .177. Need we say more? Tigers should win this series in three games and they should win each game convincingly.
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N.Y. Islanders +103 over NEW JERSEYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Not to beat a dead horse, but what are the Devils going to do to fill the gaping void left by Ilya Kovalchuk? It was enough of a challenge to address the departure of Zach Parise last season and now the Devils must contend with the loss of their other offensive dynamo. In his first two full seasons with the Devils, Kovalchuk notched 68 goals. Oh, and did we mention that the Devils also lost their leading goal scorer to free agency? Yup, David Clarkson cashed in on another terrific season by inking a seven-year deal with Toronto this past summer. That lack of offense took flight right away last night when the Devils went into Pittsburgh against that poor defense and fragile goaltender and did not score a single goal. New Jersey is not as bad as people think and we’ll get into that a bit later. However, after not scoring last night and having that lack of offense drilled into their head some more by the media, the Devils are not an appealing favorite right now. With Martin Bro de, de de, (I can’t even finish because it’s too funny), in net, the Devils are an automatic fade as the chalk. Brodeur just doesn’t want to hang them up. He’s too old, he’s too slow and the only reason he’s playing is because he’s done so much for this franchise and city that Lou is doing him a courtesy. Brodeur has been a huge liability for two or three years now and has no chance of thriving in a game that has passed him by years ago.
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The Islanders 1 through 12 forwards might be the league’s best. If they are not the best they are in the top 3. John Tavares was always heralded as a special talent but his true potential was unveiled last season when his leadership, poise and production were on full display. This guy wills his team to victories. Tavares embodies everything the Islanders have going for them right now: youth, skill, energy, enthusiasm. The Islanders will score goals in bunches and against Brodeur, they may knock him out early. The Islanders goaltending is a big concern heading into the year but that’s something to fade another time. For this game, we’re fading a team that can’t score with a goalie that can’t stop pucks anymore. End of story.
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San Diego St. -6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego State is just 1-and-3 on the season after getting their first win last week against New Mexico State but prior to this, they were matched against the likes of Oregon State and Ohio State. So while Rocky Long's team is down this year, they are not out. The Aztecs defense has been solid. With a win tonight over Nevada and another next week versus Air Force, and they're in a pretty good spot in the Mountain West at 3-and-3. Nevada meanwhile, has been great at home, albeit against less than stellar Hawaii, Air Force, and UC-Davis - and awful on the road, getting torched by UCLA and Fresno State. We're figuring on that home-road separation, versus a respectable opponent, continuing here this evening. Lay the 6 at the stadium just off the 8.
NHL Predictions
New Jersey Devils -110
We took the Devils last night in Pittsburgh as big underdogs, and although they lost 3-0 I thought they looked good. I had New Jersey marked down around -140 before last night, and after a pretty solid performance I thought the line would still be around there for tonight's game. The Devils out shot Pittsburgh 27-21 but ran into a hot Marc-Andre Fleury who stopped everything including a penalty shot. This will be the season opener for the Islanders, and the Devils home opener. Last season the Islanders finished in 8th place in the East with 55 points, which was 7 more points than the Devils. New York won the season series 3-2, although they did have the extra home game. The Devils are 10-4 in their last 14 meetings vs New Jersey. Tonight's starters will most likely be Evgeni Nabokov and Martin Brodeur, who will make his first start of the season after having last night's game off due to personal reasons. These two goalie had similar numbers last year, with Brodeur having a GAA edge, but Nabokov having an edge in SV%. Neither looked too good in the preseason, but I expect these veteran goalies to be ready for tonight. Last night the Devils looked good limiting the Pens to just 21 shots in their home opener, and while they couldn't beat Marc-Andre Fleury I expect them to be able to find the back of the net at least a few times in their home opener tonight. Their loss last night, despite what I thought was good play, might have helped tonight's odds and I will take the Devils again for 2 units at a generous price.
Detroit Red Wings -125
Last night the Washington Capitals rallied to beat the Calgary Flames in a shootout, 5-4. The Capitals, similar to their opener against the Blackhawks, failed to hold up much defensively. The Caps coughed up three straight goals to give the youthful Calgary Flames a 3-0 lead in the first period. Holtby struggled in net for a second consecutive game to start the season, giving way to a goalie change with Michal Neuvirth. At this point in the game I pretty much accepted the fact that my PL was going to be a losing bet, but congrats to those that had the Capitals on the ML.
The Detroit Red Wings will make the trip to Carolina to play guest to the Hurricanes home opener, and season opener. While this is the third fourth night of the NHL season, there is actually a handful of teams that haven't played a game yet. The Hurricanes will seek to impress the home crowd against a Red Wings team that figures to be much better than a season ago. If you remember, the Red Wings struggled to make the playoffs, but ultimately got in, making things interesting in the Western Conference playoffs before getting outed by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks. This year the Wings are hungry and armed with a new contract for Pavel Datsyuk. The things Datsyuk does with the puck will live you speechless at times. This was on display the other night, as he slipped a nifty backhander past Ryan Miller. Throw in Henrik Zetterberg, and I think you could make a case for them being the best 1-2 punch in the league. Starting goalie Jimmy Howard got off to a good start Tuesday night, allowing only 1 goal on 20 shots against the Sabres. Howard is the undisputed starter in Detroit, looking to build off of an impressive 2012 season with just a 2.13 GAA. Conversely, the Hurricanes will finally get Cam Ward back this year after losing him, but looked rather shaky in the preseason. I have never been a big Ward fan to begin with, and I could see him having a lackluster year this season. He wasn't doing a great job keeping the puck out of the net when he went down with an injury, 2.84 GAA, and I see that translating into 2013-14 and tonight against the Wings. I see the Wings getting off to a fast start to this season, with a nice win tonight against the 'Canes to jump out to a 2-0 start against a team I see faltering with Ward between the pipes.
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh/ St Louis Over 7: I had the Over last night and will come right back with it tonight. Gerrit Cole will be making his first ever post season start and you have to believe that there are some nerves there. He did have a very nice September, but the Cardinals are really hitting the ball well right now and they have put up 35 run in their last 5 home games vs Pittsburgh. On the other side this Pittsburgh offense cold get going tonight vs Lance Lynn, who has struggled vs them during the regular season, posting a 5.60 ERA in 5 starts, with 4 of the 5 starts putting up at least 8 runs. Let's also note that both starters have winning records in day starts, but also both heave Era's of 4+ in those day starts. This one should reach 7 with ease.
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2 UNIT PLAYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BOSTON -140 over Tampa Bay: The Red Sox have been one of the best home teams all year and I feel that will continue here. Yes the Rays have Moore on the mound, but Lester has been solid this year overall and is 7-1 with a 3.09 ERA at Fenway. Lester has pitched well down the stretch, but Moore has not with a 5.02 ERA in his last 3 starts. He also has had control issues of late with 20 walk in his last 6 starts. Boston is the top seed and they will show it with a solid win vs the Rays ace here.
Playersbet
World Series Future - Tampa Bay Rays +500
This Rays teams has impressed us all year…they just find a way to win. Everyone is really high on the Red Sox right now in the AL but we think they clicked a little to early to make a serious run. The Rays are starting to put it all together and whats a better time to do it then now. This team doesn’t have all of those fancy names like you see on these big market teams, they do not go out and sign the highest priced free agent available and they certainly do not draw a lot of attention to them selves. I bet you can ask the average baseball fan to name a handful of players off this Rays team and they will give you 1-2 names, 3 if they are lucky. Time after time this team has proven to us that they can win…I mean come on they had their backs against the walls 2 times so far in this post season 1st against the Rangers and 2nd against a red hot Cleveland team who won 10 straight, so its no fluke that this team knows how to win. The front rotation of this team is a force not to be messing with and we saw it last night as Alex Cobb completely shut down the Tribe. Maddon always seems to pull the right strings and really has this team believing in themselves. The Rays have won 10 of 12 games overall and have tons of momentum right now. If they can get past the Red Sox which we think they can in a 5 game series things will get a lot easier. At this price we can not pass it up.
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San Diego State vs. NevadaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 57FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On Friday, PLAY UNDER on teams like Nevada, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, who are an average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 yards per play), against a team with a poor defense (5.6 to 6.2 YPP), after allowing 475 or more total yards a game in their last three contests. In the last 20 years, this college football system is 23-4, 85.2 percent and the average total score of these games has been 48.1.
Tampa Bay +134
Tampa Bay has been in playoff mode for several weeks now and are playing very good baseball. Ride the wave with the Rays today in Boston.
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Utah State vs. BYUFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 58FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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BYU beat Utah State at home last year, 6-3. The Cougars win with defense as linebacker Kyle Van Noy is one of the best in the nation. He has 29 tackles, six tackles for loss and nine quarterback hurries. He'll be in Chuckie Keeton's grill all game. USC held the Utah State defense to just 14 points and they face another very good defense. BYU has a mediocre offense that will struggle to put up points on the road against a quality team. This screams under.
Bob Balfe
Tampa Rays +120
Tampa is in full playoff mode while the Red Sox had a few days off and were not in desperation mode at the end of the season. Tampa is a good ball club and this is a business trip for them. They went into Texas and Cleveland and disposed of those teams with ease. Look for Tampa to steal game one. Take the Rays.
Atlanta Braves -110
The Braves are back against the wall in a must win game with a left hander on the mound. The Dodgers have not hit lefties that well this year and the Braves still are an excellent home team. Kershaw is a tough draw for any team home or away, but they have to get back to even tonight or this series will be all but over. Take Atlanta.
Oakland A's +105
Here is another team in Detroit that could not hit the ball the final weeks of the season. They are happy to be in the playoffs, but there is doubt going on in their minds. Oakland is one of those teams that all year could be in a 1-1 game and by the end of the inning its 12-1. This team is great at knocking opponents out of games with big crooked numbers innings. I think this is a very dangerous A’s team that can make a big playoff run. Take Oakland.
Jeff Alexander
Utah State -4.5
Utah State is 15-2 ATS in all lined games since the start of last season, including 10-1 ATS as a favorite during this span. The Aggies are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against BYU. One of those covers was a 31-16 victory in 2010 the last time they hosted BYU. We very well could see a similar result tonight. Lay the number.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays +133
The Rays are showing value at this price as they enter Game 1 of their ALDS with momentum and confidence after notching three consecutive do-or-die wins on the road. While Lester has been great at home, Tampa Bay's Moore has been even better on the road. He's 10-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 16 road starts this season with the Rays winning 14 of these. Tampa Bay is 23-6 in his last 29 starts. He went 2-0 against Boston this season, limiting the Red Sox to three runs in 15 innings of work. The Red Sox have dropped five of Lester's last eight starts against the Rays, and he was tagged for four runs or more in half of those. The Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Boston. Take Tampa Bay.
Chris Jordan
I read two headlines the other night:
"Dodgers hurting, but confident entering NLDS," and, "Favored or not, Braves confident facing Dodgers."
Good to know both teams have confidence going into the postseason, right? Question is, whose talent rises above the confidence level and has the makings of a seven-game run if it gets that far? Personally, seeing what the Los Angeles Dodgers did yesterday offensively and with Clayton Kershaw on the hill, I know we're about to see some big things with Zack Greinke going in Game 2.
Greinke is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA lifetime against Atlanta. Though he is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in one Turner Field start, he did turn in seven scoreless innings to beat the Braves in Los Angeles.
And even though L.A. went 2-5 against Braves in 2013, that was long before the Dodgers' second-half surge that included that incredible run from late June into September, before things started leveling out. And quick disclaimer, yeah I know the Dodgers struggled even more (12-15) in September than did Atlanta (13-14).
The East-champion Braves watched the National League’s best record end up in St. Louis over the final weekend, so now the Braves get the West-champion Dodgers and their aces, Kershaw and Greinke. The Dodgers have seemingly already stolen homefield advantage, and now if they can go up 2-0 in Atlanta, they know they can wrap it up in Los Angeles.
I'm putting my money on the men in blue, who I believe are on a mission to get to the Fall Classic, where they fully expect to meet the Boston Red Sox. Take the Dodgers today and list Greinke
2♦ L.A. DODGERS