Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Detroit Tigers to draw first blood in their best-of-five division series with the Oakland Athletics.
It really comes down to this for me...anytime I can get a guy that went 21-3 during the regular season with an ERA of 2.90 priced as a -120 favorite, I have to grab that value all night long.
Max Scherzer will oppose Oakland's 18-game winner, Bartolo Colon, and these two are actually starting versus each other for the third time this year.
Neither has been particularly dominant in the previous two meetings, as Detroit was a 7-6 winner at the end of August in the last meeting between the hurlers, while Oakland was a 4-3 winner in the first hook-up of the year back in April.
The Tigers made it all the way to the World Series last season, and have advanced to the ALCS in each of the last pair of October's. Going to side with Detroit to win the opener tonight versus the A's in a close one.
1♦ DETROIT
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Oakland A's and Detroit Tigers to stay under the posted total with two studs on the mound.
I won't say the Tigers are "limping" into tonight's rematch of last year's ALDS between the Tigers and the A's, but they definitely aren't as healthy as they'd like to be.
Miguel Cabrera, the team's heart and soul (both offensively and even defensively) has been hurt much of the second half of the season and clearly won't be 100% for this series or the remainder of the playoffs... depending on how far the Tigers make it.
And with his offense in flux, the entire Tigers offense takes a huge hit. Then you add the fact that they're facing one of the best pitchers no one talks about in Bartolo Colon... and we have the recipe for a low-scoring game.
American League Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Tigers as the league's only 20-game winner and has had a lot of success against the A's in his career.
Scherzer was 1-0 in last year’s series with the A's while Colon wasn't quite as successful, but I believe he's a better pitcher this year than he was last year (and the numbers back me up).
These two pitchers have faced off against each other twice in 2013... and neither pitcher received a win or a loss in low-scoring affairs. Both were credited with a "no decision" and that's very likely again tonight.
Take the UNDER in tonight's Game 1 as your free play of the day.
3♦ OAKLAND-DETROIT UNDER
Brad Wilton
My free play winner this Friday is the Dodgers and Braves to once again head Over the total in their playoff game at Turner Field.
Last night's game found its way Over the total, as the Dodgers hung 6 runs on the scoreboard to do the bulk of the damage on Thursday night, and I expect their offense will do the bulk of the damage again today, as Atlanta starter Mike Minor ended the regular season in a rut.
Minor went 0-4 over his final 5 regular season efforts with an ERA of 3.94.
3 of Minors last 4 starts did land Over the total, and his 3.62 ERA for the season at Turner Field saw 10 of his 16 home assignments play Over the posted price.
Zack Greinke has been blistering on the road his last 10 away starts, going 7-0 with a 1.95 ERA. After getting just one run off of Clayton Kershaw last night, I am sure the Braves will be pressing a little at the plate tonight.
If Atlanta can get us 2 runs, I feel confident Los Angeles can take us the rest of the way.
Game One was an Over, look for Game Two to also be an Over.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS-ATLANTA OVER
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2* St. Louis -135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Each of these starters has pitched great down the stretch. Cole finished the season on a 4-0 run with 1.38 ERA posting 34Ks in 26 IP. In 7 road starts, Pittsburgh has gone 5-2 where Cole has posted a 2.38 ERA. Lynn finished strong as well. In his final 4 starts, Lynn twirled a 1.09 ERA with 30Ks in 24 2/3 IP. St. Louis won 12/16 Lynn home starts where he had a 2.82 ERA. A note of caution is that in 5 starts vs. the Pirates, Lynn has a 5.60 ERA. The real basis for the selection comes with the experience edge that St. Louis has in post-season play against a Pittsburgh team making their first playoff appearance in 20 years. Then there is the matter of the home field where St. Louis has gone 55-27. Finally, we must consider current form which shows St. Louis on runs of 29-13, 17-5, and 7-0. St. Louis is recently 21-3 on this field including 5-0 vs. the Pirates in which they outscored the Bucs 32-14.
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2* LA Dodgers -110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Choosing the current form of Greinke vs. that of Minor to overcome Atlanta’s strong home field. The Braves have the best home record in baseball this season at 56-25. Even with last night’s loss, Atlanta is still 25-11 on this field. The Dodgers made a major statement by winning game 1 at this site. They could drive a nail in the Braves coffin with another top performance by Greinke. LA won 22/28 Greinke starts this year where he had a 2.63 ERA. Greinke pitched his best down the stretch posting a 1.58 ERA in his last 12 starts. Formerly known as a “homer”, in his last 10 road starts, Greinke went 7-0 with a 1.95 ERA. In his lone outing vs. Atlanta this season, Greinke allowed just 4 hits in 7 IP of a 5-0 LA victory. Minor’s current form is a bit troubling. The Braves have lost his last 5 starts where he has gone 0-4 with a 3.94 ERA.
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2* Tampa Bay +130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What a turnaround for Boston. Could the change in managers from Valentine to Farrell really have been responsible for a 28 game improvement to a 97-65 record, tied with St. Louis for the best mark in MLB? It has resulted in Boston’s first post-season appearance in 3 years. Aside from Farrell creating a far healthier atmosphere in the clubhouse, must credit the Boston bats that were the best in baseball. While they did finish on a 23-10 run, they stumbled home at 5-6 losing their last 2 games. Then there is the matter of the Boston bullpen, the worst of all playoff participants. The Red Sox had a 124 bullpen index for the season (MLB average of 140) which was even worse in the last 3 months at 112. Lester has pitched well of late where he has gone 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA. While pitching from this mound, Boston has gone 11-2 where Lester has posted a 3.09 ERA. The Red Sox did capture the season series from the Rays posting a 12-7 series record. Yet, I am choosing to favor the momentum that is Tampa Bay. The Rays finished 15-5 and 10-2. That included road victories at Toronto to make the play in game, a road victory at Texas to qualify for the Wild Card and a road win at Cleveland to set up this playoff series. While the letdown is always possible, the Rays have had 2 days to sober up following their celebration. TBay won 21/27 Moore starts including 14/16 away where Moore had a 2.59 ERA. Moore finished strong going 9-1 in his last 13 starts. A vote for the Tampa Bay momentum to continue behind their best starter.
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2* Oakland +110FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Following a mid-season surge, the Tigers division lead was never threatened. They closed out their pursuers with an 11-4 September surge before dropping the last 3 games of the regular season. Detroit won 25/32 Scherzer starts in which he posted a 2.90 ERA. That was even better on the road where in 16 starts Scherzer had a 2.28 ERA. Oakland counters with Colon. In 30 Colon starts, Oakland went 21-9 with Colon authoring a 2.65 ERA that was nearly identical to his work from this mound where Colon had a 2.58 ERA in 16 starts. Unlike 2012, Oakland did not have to make a late season surge to capture the division title. This year, they had the division title well in hand yet still finished on positive runs of 24-9 and 7-3. Yet, Oakland well remembers losing this playoff series to Detroit last season 3 games to 2. With the more positive momentum and a home field where Oakland is 39-18 of late, we take a value home price with the As.
Sc Live Dogs
Oakland Athletics +112
The Athletics seem to have been waiting for this Game 1 of the ALDS all season. The O.co Coliseum will be rocking on Friday for Game 1 against this Tigers team. Both teams will be coming off of a four day layoff but we will look for the Athletics to come in with the early advantage playing at home as well as playing the better ball in their last week of the regular season. The Tigers come into Fridays game as losers of their last 5 of 7 games while averaging 2 RPG and allowing 2.6 RPG which is off par by many standards for them as they average 4.9 RPG and allow just 3.9 RPG on the season. The A's come into Fridays game as winners of their last 6 of 9 games while averaging 6.3 RPG and allowing 3.9 RPG during that stretch. The Athletics will be pitching Bartolo Colon who comes in with a 0.90 era over his last 20 innings of work where he allowed 15 hits on 3 BBs & 23 Ks. Colon faced this Tigers team twice in 2013 where he allowed a combined 4 runs through 12 innings of work on 0 BBs & 6 Ks. Colon comes into Fridays start after 6 days of rest where he seems to be sharp after the layoff during the season. On 6 or more days of rest, Colon carried a 4-1 record to match his 2.95 era over over 36 innings of work where he allowed just 6 BBs on 23 Ks. The Tigers will be pitching Max Scherzer who very well may win the Cy Young Award. Scherzer comes in with a 1.80 era over his last 20 innings of work against the Twins, White Sox & Royals. We have to wonder how sharp Scherzer will be in this game after an 8 day layoff for him and after starts against below average teams. The layoff may play a larger role than most realize as Scherzer does carry a 3.86 era on 6 or more days of rest and Fridays start will be the longest layoff he is coming off of all season. Scherzer faced the A's twice this season where he allowed a combined 6 runs through 11 innings of work on 2 HRs. The bullpens in this series should play a large role and the advantage does lean towards the Athletics with a 2.99 home era compared to the Tigers road era of 3.65. Play on the Athletics at +112.
Harry Bondi
NEVADA (+6) over San Diego State
This line is a huge overlay and we'll gladly take the points. Nevada's offense, led by QB Cody Fajardo, is clicking on all cylinders entering this game, including topping the 40-point barrier in last week's come-from-behind victory over Air Force. In that game, the Wolfpack offense rushed for more than 200 yards and put up almost 600 yards of offense and will have similar success against this Aztec defense that has major problems in the secondary and is allowing 34 points per game. Take the touchdown head start!