Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday October, 5

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

BYU/ Utah State Under 46: Was there any mystery on which way I will go here. Yep you guessed it I like the Under. The Cougars had a 47 point explosion last week but that was vs a depleted and poor Hawaii defense. This is not an offense that will score 40 or even 30 points all that often, especially when going up against good defenses and the Aggies have one of the better stop units in the nation, ranking 11th in scoring and 18th in points allowed. BYU will not move the ball on the Aggies like they did vs the Rainbows. The Aggie offense has put up 66 points in their last 2 games, but not vs the kind of defense that they will face tonight They have faced 2 good defenses this year and put up just 14 vs Wisconsin and just 20 points in regulation vs Utah. Both teams run more than they throw and both ar good at running, but these rush defenses are two of the better in the nation. That should eat clock and put these teams in some long yardage situations and neither QB is great in those situations. I see this one on the low 40’s at best.

Jim Feist

Orioles vs. Rangers
Play: Over 9

Texas is an offensive park and the over is 6-2 in the Rangers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Yu Darvish takes the hill, and he can walk batters allowing 89 free passes in 191 innings. He has a powerhouse Texas offense working for him, one ranked first in runs scored, 4th in on base percentage and second in slugging. The over is 5-0 in the Rangers last 5 home games and 9-4 over the total in Darvish's last 13 starts overall. And when these teams meet the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Play the Orioles/Rangers over the total.

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Utah State vs. BYU
Play: Under 46FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In the 8 games these two tams have played this season 7 of the 8 have played under as both teams have solid defense units. Utah St has played under in 6 of 7 off 2+ wins, 10 of 14 as a dog and 4 of 4 times vs Non conference teams of late. When playing in weeks 5-9 7 of their 9 games have stayed under the total. BYU has gone under in 6 of 7 vs winning teams, 17 of 24 on grass and 10 of 15 vs WAC conference teams. This has the feel of a low scoring game dictated by defense. Go with the under in this one.

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Utah State vs BYUFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Utah StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rivalry battle, but far more to Utah State. The Aggies will be sky high to avenge last year's 27-24 loss, a game they led 24-13. BYU has a terrific defense, but the dog has more offense. I'll side with Utah State plus the points.

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Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse
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Pittsburgh is 2-2, but failed in their first Big East game of the season as they head to Syracuse. The Orange are 1-3 on the season, but that lone win did come at home however as did two of the losses. Pittsburgh has rebounded nicely after losing their first two games and getting outscored 65-27 they have won their last two outscoring their opponent 90-27 including a win over #13 Virginia Tech. Syracuse won their previous home game, but couldn't make it 2-2 as they lost 17-10 at Minnesota. Look for Pittsburgh to get to 3-2 as they win their first Big East game of the year with a win at Syracuse. Play Pittsburgh

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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas/ Baltimore Under 9: Joe Saunders has pitched very well since joining the the Orioles, posting a 2.75 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in his last 6 starts for them. On the road he has a 1.77 ERA in 4 starts as an Oriole and his road starts have averaged a mere 4.33 rpg. He does have a 6.43 ERA in his career vs Texas but has faced them just once in last 3 years and in that game he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings of work. Yu Darvish gets the call for the Rangers tonight and he has the advantage of the Orioles having never seen him. He has also been pitching well, allowing 3 ER's or less in each of his last 8 starts, while in his last 4 starts he has a 1.51 ERA in his last 4 starts. This is just a 1 game playoff and that may have both teams offenses a bit tight. I feel the pitchers have the advantage here and that will keep the scoring down.

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TEXAS -1½ +115 over Baltimore
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The Orioles have defied logic all season long with the absolute worst starting pitching staff to ever reach the playoffs. Now it all comes down to a win or go home showdown to see who moves on to the “real playoffs”.
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Unfortunately for the Orioles, it’s Joe Saunders turn in the rotation. Baltimore was going for the division title and chose not to set up its best pitcher for this one game in case they didn’t get the title. That’s a strategy that’s likely to backfire, as Saunders has little to no chance for success at this park against this team. Saunders’ ERA since the trade to the O’s here has been decent (3.63 ERA) but a look under the surface reveals the same issues that have made him the hittable, beatable and average pitcher that he’s always been. Saunders has a BAA of .281. His WHIP of 1.34 spells base-runners but a fortunate high strand percentage of 83% over his last four starts has aided his ERA. His xERA of 4.53 is a more accurate reading of what kind of trouble Saunders usually gets in. With a history of average control and strikeout rate, he’ll rely heavily on his defense. With some issues with the long-ball, he’d be wise to avoid at any hitter’s park and this is the friendliest one in the AL. Want more proof? Saunders is 0-6 with a 9.38 ERA in six previous starts at Rangers Ballpark.
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Yu Darvish has filthy stuff and is missing major league bats at an elite degree. His 221 K’s in 189 innings ranks him among the leaders in that category. When facing teams for the first time, his numbers have been off the charts with a .109 BAA and a .0.89 ERA. The Orioles are the only AL team he didn’t face this year. He’s no stranger to the playoffs either. Darvish went 8-2 with a 1.38 ERA and five complete games in 11 postseason starts for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters from 2006-11. The Rangers won five of the seven games in the regular season against the O’s and scored at least 10 runs three times. Expect more of that here. Huge pitching mismatch dictates the play.

MLB Predictions

Cardinals / Braves Under 6.5

The Cardinals enter the Wild Card game as the road team with their 88-74 record overall, while the Braves get to host the game as they finished the season with a solid 94-68 record. The Cardinals were 38-43 on the road, while the Braves were 48-33 at home this year. Take note that the Cardinals enter Friday's game after scoring just 6 runs in their 3 game series against Cincinnati at home. The UNDER is 3-0 in their last 3 and 6-3 in their last 9 games. The Braves dropped 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh as they had the Wild Card spot locked up, but they did manage just 6 runs over those 3 games and haven't been scoring many runs over their last 25 games or so. The UNDER is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall. St Louis sends Kyle Lohse to the mound who is a stellar 16-3 on the year with a 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and .239 opponents batting average. Kris Medlen will get the start for Atlanta after going 10-1 with a microscopic 1.57 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .208 opponents batting average. Atlanta is 25-1 in Medlen's last 26 starts overall. Note that the UNDER is 15-6 in Lohse's last 21 starts overall and the UNDER is 6-2 in the Cardinals last 8 road games. The UNDER is 41-17-2 in the Braves last 60 games overall, and 23-5-1 in their last 29 home games. The UNDER is also 6-2-1 in Medlen's last 9 starts overall, and 5-1-1 in his last 7 home starts. This is a low total, but again this is the postseason and with it being a one game elimination the managers are going to have a tight leash on both starters. Both pitchers have held opponents to under a .240 batting average over the season, and they are two of the top NL starting pitchers. Neither team is really hot with the bats lately and I expect runs to be hard to come by. Take the UNDER.

The Brian Laverty

Atlanta -169

Atlanta couldn’t ask to be in a better spot for a one game playoff: There best starting pitcher (23 wins in a row when Medlen starts) vs. a pitcher who has choked in big games, and who has struggled vs. Atlanta hitting. Everyone knows how solid Medlen has been, but to reiterate… in 12 starts this season, he has given up more than 1 ER in just 2 of them. Altogether, in 7 starts at home, he has given up just 6 earned runs. On the other side, Kyle Lohse is pitching for the Cardinals and this is not his best situational spot to be in. He has been mediocre on the road this year, giving up less than 2 runs in just 2 of his last 12 starts, and has struggled vs. the Braves lineup: 29-88 with an OBP of close to .400. Lohse has also been known to choke when it comes to the pressure of the postseason: In 4 career postseason starts, he has given up 3+ in all of them, and has failed to make it through 6 innings in any of them. He’s had a great season, but the pressure will just be too much in a one game playoff. Finally, if the Cardinals are still close at the end, they have a huge disadvantage compared to the Braves bullpen. The Braves bullpen has been excellent all year at home, with an ERA of 3, and a WHIP of just 1.12, while the Cardinals relievers have struggled all year on the road: 4.5 ERA and a WHIP of 1.37, while blowing a horrendous 11 out of 30 save opportunities. Last but not least, the home team has won the one game playoff in 5 out of the 6 games since 1995. With the huge homefield advantage and a big pitching edge, its all lined up for the Braves to get a huge victory and advance to the ALDS.

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Cardinals / Braves Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta will of course use Medlen in today's wild card game and I expect the Cardinals' batters to struggle today. Medlen generally uses three kind of pitches: fastball, curveball and changeup, with his secret being the fact that his release point is the same for the three pitches, something that really fools the opposing batters. According to fangraphs.com, Medlen is a top 5 pitcher in all these three pitches, while St Louis is #6 against fastballs, #4 against curveballs and #16 against changeups (Medlen's best pitch). Over the last 30 days, the Cardinals are just #21 against fastballs, #7 against curveballs and #26 against changeups, therefore looking at Medlen's amazing form, I can't really expect St Louis (whose roster has just 33 AB's against him) to be the team who is finally able to make Medlen struggle, after a dozen of amazing outings. If we add to this, an excellent bullpen with Martinez, O'Flaherty and Avilan plus the closer Kimbrel (1.01 ERA, 0.78 FIP and 0.88 xFIP), I don't see how the Cardinals will be able to have any kind of decent offense today against the current best pitcher in the baseball plus a bullpen who is #2 in FIP with 3.21 and #1 in xFIP with 3.32 this season, while having had even better numbers in September.
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So, it will be all up to Lohse to have a very good outing today to compensate St Louis' lack of hitting today. He had "just" a solid September/October with 3.89 ERA, but his advanced numbers (3.39 FIP, 3.34 xFIP) were quite good and better than his ERA. He had some issues against Washington twice, but that isn't expected to happen today against an Atlanta offense that combined a .635 OPS over the last 30 days. Lohse throws mostly fastballs (53%), sliders (23.4%) and changeups (19.2%), with the Braves being just #28 in hitting against fastballs, #25 against sliders and #5 against changeups in September. With the full season numbers not being much better, I don't see Atlanta putting Lohse in big trouble today. I know Lohse struggled in a start against Atlanta earlier on the season, but he didn't have his usual good control on his pitches (6 GB and 10 FB, including 2 HR allowed) and ended up struggled against a Braves offense that was in much better form back then than they are right now.
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Even though I believe Atlanta will eventually win this game due to a brilliant pitching from Medlen plus the bullpen, I also expect Lohse to have a very good outing in here, turning this game into a very low scoring game. Therefore, even considering the low totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.

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Pittsburgh/Syracuse Under 59
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Odds makers have set the bar a little too high tonight considering both teams have had an extra week to prepare. Syracuse has been an unders machine coming out of a bye week. It is 8-1 under in its last 9 in this situation.
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The Panthers have played to the under in 5 of their last 7 lined games overall and each of their last 4 lined games on the road.
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Syracuse averages a healthy 487.5 yards per game, but I believe the Panthers will be up to the challenge. Consider that Pitt is on an 8-0 unders run on the road versus excellent offensive teams that average 450 yards or more per game. We have only seen an average of 46.0 total points scored in this situation.
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Pitt ranks a respectable 28th on defense with 324.0 yards allowed per game.
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The Syracuse defense has performed well also outside of its performance against USC's high-powered attack, and Pitt is certainly no USC. The Orange have held their other 3 foes to an average of 328.3 yards per game.
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These defenses will see few surprises tonight as they've had plenty of time to figure out all the offensive tendencies. This one comes in under the number as a result.

Stan Lisowski

Baltimore vs Texas
Play: Texas

The Rangers have been very good at home hosting left-handed starters this year and last, winning 65% of the time in 51 opportunities. Overall this campaign, they have gone 28-19 against southpaw starters. Teams behind Oriole starter Saunders are just 11-17 when he is on the mound.