Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 7

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Boise State -20.5 over FRESNO STATE: The Boise Broncos seem to be going through the motions right now, with a couple of not so spirited wins vs Tulsa and Nevada the last 2 weeks. Boise is still ranked 6th in the Country and will need to start having some huge wins if they entertain any hopes of playing for the title. Fresno state is a team that the Broncos never have problems getting up for as they come in having won the last 5 in the series and by an average of 31.2 ppg in the process. The Boise offense has been productive as they have averaged 36.5 ppg and 446.ypg and because of this offense the defense is usually overlooked. This Bronco defense is usually on of the better in the nation and this year is no exception as they come in allowing just 298.8 ypg (19th) and 16.8 ppg (20th). This is a very good defense that doesn't get the respect they deserve. The Fresno offense has been solid this year putting up 30.2 ppg, but I feel it will be the defense that let's them down big time here. Fresno comes in having allowed 38.7 ppg vs BCS teams so far (I know Boise isn't a BCS team but they are close enough), including allowing 38 points last week to an Ole miss team that is ranked 116th in total offense and 95th in scoring. This is a bad defense and will struggle mightily vs the Bronco offense that looks to really wake up tonight. We also note that the Bulldogs are 12-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, while the Bulldogs are just 12-37-2 ATS in their last 51 games off a SU loss. Look for the Broncos offense to put plenty of points on the board, while their defense is it's usual stingy self. Boise by 24+ here.

Jim Feist

Cardinals vs Phillies
Pick: Over

Chris Carpenter is looking his age, off a so-so season and a bad performance in the playoffs against this Philly offense. The over is 7-1 in Carpenter's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Both teams are strong offensively, with the Cardinals No. 5 in baseball in runs scored. The over is 6-1-1 in Carpenter's last 8 starts vs. Phillies, and the over is 24-9-1 in Halladays last 34 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Play the Cardinals/Phillies Game 5 over the total.

Steve Merril

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Under 7½

We head back to Milwaukee for Game 5 of the NLDS series between the Diamondbacks and Brewers. It's a rematch of Game 1 when the Brewers won 4-1. Yovani Gallardo made the start and gave up 1 run and four hits in eight innings striking out eight while walking only one. With the win, he moved to 6-0 all-time against Arizona; he has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last three starts against them. Overall, the righty has struck out 36 batters in his last 28 1/3rd innings while sporting a 1.59 ERA over that span. He is 11-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 17 home starts with 10 of those games going Under the total. Miguel Montero (1-7), Gerardo Parra (1-6), Ryan Roberts (0-3) and Chris Young (2-13) all struggle with the Brewers’ ace. Arizona is hitting .239 on the road while putting up just 4 runs per game. The Brewers’ bullpen is 16-11 with a 2.74 ERA at home blowing just 9 saves in 41 chances.

Ian Kennedy has an outside chance at the N.L. Cy Young award going 21-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 19 Unders in 34 starts. Kennedy's start in Game 1 wasn't a horrible one as he allowed 4 runs and eight hits in just under seven innings. He made one other start against the Brewers this season allowing four hits and two walks in seven innings. Kennedy has allowed just 6 runs and 14 hits in his last three starts beating the Giants and Pirates in that span. Prince Fielder (2-8), Corey Hart (1-5), Casey McGehee (0-7) and Rickie Weeks (2-10) struggle with the Diamondbacks’ ace. Kennedy will be backed by a bullpen that is 8-10 with a 3.48 ERA and only 8 blown saves in 41 road chances. We expect this game to be tightly contested and a low- scoring affair.

MATT RIVERS

Free play winner today is to take the "home cooking" and back the Milwaukee Brewers to close out their division series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The home team has won all 4 games played thus far, and all 4 of the wins have come with relative ease. Don't expect a change tonight, as no National League team in the history of division series play has blown a 2-0 lead in the 19 previous times it has happened!

Yovani Gallardo outdueled D-Backs ace Ian Kennedy in Game One, and is now 11-2 at Miller Park for the season. The Brewers are an overall 54-29 in front of their home crowd, and I just don't see them dropping this series finale.

Take the Brewers to push themselves into Sunday's NLCS Game One with the win behind Gallardo tonight.

5♦ MILWAUKEE

Jack Jones

St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-140)

I'm siding with the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line Friday in what should be a low-scoring pitcher's duel in Game 5. It is very likely that this game will be decided by a single run, just as two of the last three have been.

Chris Carpenter did not pitch well in his first start in this series, but the Cardinals found a way to win Game 2 by a final of 5-4. Carpenter will be hungry to make amends and to pick up right where he left off at the end of the regular season. He went 2-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his last three outings, giving up just one earned run in 24 innings.

It's not like Roy Halladay was dominant in his first start, either. He gave up three runs in the first inning before settling down. I expect both starters to be on top of their games tonight.

The Cardinals are 6-0 in Carpenter's last 6 starts against the Phillies. They are also a perfect 5-0 in Carpenter's last 5 road starts in Philadelphia. Philly is just 1-7 in their last 8 home games, and 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Cards are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a road underdog, and 4-0 in Carpenter's last 4 road starts. Bet St. Louis on the Run Line Friday.

Steve Janus

Milwaukee Brewers -150

Milwaukee was unable to close out the Diamondbacks in Arizona, but that won't stop me from laying the juice on the Brewers in Game 5 tonight. Milwaukee was the best home team in all of baseball during the regular season and had no trouble beating the Diamondbacks at home in the first two games of the series.

Milwaukee will send out their ace Yovani Gallardo, who is 11-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 17 home starts. He was brilliant in game 1 of the series, holding Arizona to just 1 run on 4 hits in 8 innings of a 4-1 win. That dominant performance was nothing new for Gallardo against the the Diamondbacks. He is 6-0 with 1.18 ERA and 0.868 WHIP in six career starts.

The Brewers are 47-13 in their last 60 games as a home favorite, 41-10 in their last 51 home games vs. a right-handed starter, and 6-1 in Gallardos last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. BET MILWAUKEE!

SPORTS WAGERS

Nashville –104 over COLUMBUS

All the “so-called experts” are calling for the Jackets to make a serious playoff push after they acquired Jeff Carter in one of the bigger deals in the off-season. The consensus is that Rick Nash finally has the center he’s always been missing. Nash, Carter, Derek Brossard and R. J. Umberger are a good group of forwards but every team has a few good players and a couple of all-stars. The Jackets also acquired hard-shooting d-man James Wisniewski but he’s going to sit out the first eight games due to a suspension. The Jackets picked up nine new players in the offseason but other than the aforementioned trio and perhaps Vinny Prospal, the rest are run-of-the mill NHL players. The Jackets are thin, especially on defense and depth and we just don’t see this team as a playoff contender. Preseason means nothing but it is worth noting that the Preds seven exhibition wins were the most in the league and the Predators discovered a lot about the young players they will be counting on heavily this season. They've replenished the team with an opening night roster that features six rookies, including forward Craig Smith, who had as impressive a preseason as anyone on the team. The stability is in Ryan Suter, Shea Weber and perhaps the best goaltender in the league in Pekka Rinne. None of those three were top-five picks in the draft, where the elite players usually are selected. Rinne was an eighth-round pick and this is an endorsement to GM David Poile’s ability to identify young talent. We mention that because Poile is counting on some young players to produce so keep your eye on Craig Smith and Blake Geoffrion and don’t be surprised if Colin Wilson, Patric Hornqvist and Sergei Kostitsyn have big years. The real kicker to this wager is that the puck line shows that the Jackets are -½ +153 while the Preds are +½ -166 and that’s a significant enticement by the books to get you to bet the wrong side. Play: Nashville –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

HAMILTON –3 over Winnipeg

Swaggerville has lost its swagger. Buck Pierce is a go tonight but so what. Pierce is a like a boxer in the 11th round after taking jabs to the midsection for 10 rounds. He’s one more jab away from hitting the canvas and this move to play him tonight appears more like a desperation move on the part of the Bombers. Why not sit him for another week? In any case, Pierce has more picks than TD’s and most of those interceptions came over the past four games. Pierce is regressing and he’s playing scared football right now. These two have played twice this year with the Bombers winning both times. However, that’s when they had swagger and were playing well. Winnipeg has lost four of five and that includes a loss in Toronto. Meanwhile, the Ticats have won two straight and they not only won but they buried both Toronto and Calgary, the former on the road. Playing in Toronto is a 40-minute bus ride so for the Ticats this is three weeks now of being home and sleeping in your own bed. The Bombers will travel for the third time in four weeks and that’s a huge edge for the Ticats. Thing is, Hamilton doesn’t even need that edge, as they’re in way better form and they’re very aware of two previous losses to this foe. It won’t be three. Play: Hamilton –3 (Risking 2.3 units to win 2).

PHILADELPHIA –177 over St. Louis

With a bet on the Cards to win the series at +461, we can come back with the Phillies to win tonight at –180. That gives us the opportunity to free roll for a +284 profit with nothing to lose on the Cards. Make this wager only if you played the Cards to win series before game 4. Play: Philadelphia +177 (Risking 1.77 units to win 1).

David Banks

Boise State / Fresno State Over

ESPN’s Friday night college football telecast takes us to the Silicon Valley where Pat Hill’s Fresno State Bulldogs (2-3, 2-3 ATS) will look to put an end to their five-game losing streak against the 5th ranked Boise State Broncos (4-0, 2-2 ATS); kick-off from Bulldog Stadium is set to go at 9:00 ET on ESPN and ESPN3.com.

Coach Chris Petersen’s Broncos enter tonight’s non-conference clash with the Bulldogs unblemished on the season after picking up wins in each of their first four games against the Georgia Bulldogs, Toledo Rockets, Tulsa Golden Hurricane, and Nevada Wolfpack. However, Boise hasn’t been the stone cold locks against the pointspread that it’s been in the past only managing a 2-2 ATS record on the year. That said; both of the “Smurf Turf” warriors pointspread victories came away from Broncos Stadium against Georgia and Toledo improving the Broncos to an impressive 21-7 ATS their L/28 as a visitor.

Long gone seem to be the days of the Bulldogs upsetting top 25 ranked teams, as the Bulldogs stand 0-12 SU and 5-7 ATS in that role dating back to 2006. If Fresno State actually does manage to give tonight’s opponents a run for their money, it would come as quite a surprise as the 2011-12 Bulldogs look to be a much lesser form than the version that got throttled 51-0 in Boise last season. Having said that, stranger things have happened and if ever a coach could motivate his kids enough to run through a brick wall for him, it would be none other than the fiery Pat Hill. Having said that, Fresno State stands a poor 2-9 ATS the L/11 times it played under the Friday night lights and 0-5-1 ATS its L/6 games played in the month of October.

Boise State has flat out dominated the recent series with its neighbors to the west winning nine of the L/10 overall confrontations while posting an identical 9-1 ATS tally in those contests. Not surprisingly, the favorite has covered 10 of these teams L/11 overall meetings. Boise State has covered nine of the L/12 times it was favored on the road, but Fresno State counters with an 8-6 ATS record as an underdog the L/3 seasons. The ‘over’ is 9-4 the L/13 times Fresno State was installed an underdog of 10.5 points or more.

MLB Predictions

Diamondbacks / Brewers Under 7.5

Tonight we see the same match up as we did in Game 1 of the series, where the Brewers won 4-1. Ian Kennedy is on the mound for the Dbacks, while Yovani Gallardo will be pitching for the Brewers in a winner takes all match up. The UNDER in that game 1 was set at 7 runs, and now in Game 5 we see it bumped up to 7.5 after 3 high scoring games (2 overs and 1 push at 9). Ian Kennedy was a stellar 21-4 on the season with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .227 opponents batting average. He gave up 4 runs on 8 hits in 6.2 innings, but it was a 2 run blast in the 7th that turned a solid outing into a not so good start and a loss. I fully expect Ian Kennedy to bounce back with a solid start here tonight. Gallardo has solid numbers with a 17-10 record during the regular season, 3.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and .245 opponents batting average. He shines at home, posting a 10-2 record, 3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .237 opponents batting average - plus the Game 1 victory where he went 8 innings giving up just 4 hits and 1 earned run. The UNDER is 8-3 in Kennedy's last 11 starts overall, and the UNDER is 6-2 in Gallardo's last 8 home starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts overall. The UNDER is also 3-1-1 in Gallardo's last 5 starts vs Arizona. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in the Diamondbacks last 8 as an underdog, and 15-6 in their last 21 with a total set between 7-8.5. Also take note the UNDER is 7-3-1 in the Brewers last 11 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. A little over reaction to the high scoring ball games between these two clubs gives us a good total to bet on the UNDER with two very solid starting pitchers who can and should go deep into tonight's deciding Game 5. Value on the UNDER tonight, and I'm taking it for 1 unit.

NHL PREDICTIONS

Blackhawks / Stars Over 5.5

The Chicago Blackhawks squeaked into the postseason last year in the 8th spot, but lost to the eventual Western Conference champion Vancouver Canucks in 7 games. The Blackhawks have tonight's opponent to thank for their preseason berth, as the Dallas Stars only needed a win in their final game of the season to make the playoffs, but failed to do so in a 5-3 loss to Minnesota. The Blackhawks scored 258 goals last season, good for 3rd in the Western Conference and 4th in the entire NHL. I don't expect Chicago's scoring to slow down at all this season, with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane only getting older and more comfortable in the league. Also note that Patrick Sharp (71 points in 74 games last season) is expected to be in the lineup after an appendectomy this summer. The big off season news for the Dallas Stars was the loss of UFA Brad Richards, who signed a big contract with the Rangers. We can expect a lot of the offense to come from Loui Eriksson, Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow, while the addition of Michael Ryder might help fill the gap of Richards. Tonight's OVER play is based on how these two teams play each other. In 4 games played against each last season the OVER was 3-1, with totals of 7, 6, and 8, and the only game not going over the posted total was a 5-0 Dallas win. In the prior season the OVER was 4-0 when these two teams met, and overall the OVER is 7-2-1 in their last 10 meetings in Dallas. Also we have to take a look at both teams specialty teams. Both were in the top half of the NHL in powerplay % (Chicago 4th and Dallas 14th), while both teams were near the bottom in penalty killing % (Chicago 25th and Dallas 23rd). Also take note that the Blackhawks ranked 4th in the NHL in road goals scored last season. I think we can expect the OVER trend to continue between these two teams, in what should be a great game. Take the OVER 5.5 goals.

John Ryan

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

5* graded play on Arizona as they take on the Milwaukee Brewers set to start at 5:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game and advance to the NLCS. The pressure is squarely on the Brewers as they are the team that is supposed to win. Arizona can come into this far more relaxed and can play the game. Arizona has nothing to lose and nothing to prove to their fans. We saw the same pressure negatively effect the best franchise in MLB when the Yankees kept coming up short in many situations during their Game 5 loss to Detroit.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 43-22 making 28.9 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play on all dogs in October with a money line of +100 to +150 after having won two of their last three games. This system has averaged a plus 121 dog play. Over the past three seasons this system has gone 30-15 and made 21 units per one unit wagered.

Momentum is certainly on the side of the Diamondbacks and the following system confirms that this is their game to win. This system has gone 39-24 for 62% winners since 1997, but has made a whopping 27.2 units per one unit wagered. Play against all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 in the division series after a loss. Over the past five seasons this system has gone an impressive 13-4 and has made 12.2 units per one unit wagered.

Kennedy gets the start for this historic Game 5 and I fully expect him to dominate the Brewers lineup tonight. In 34 starts this season he has posted a21-5 record with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.093 WHIP striking out 201 batters spanning 228 ⅔ innings of work. In 16 road starts he went an impressive 10-3 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.227 WHIP striking out 88 batters spanning 102 ⅔ innings of work.

Kennedy is a complete starter with four outstanding pitches. He will throw fastball 60%, curve 14%, slider 9%, and change up 17% of all pitches thrown. On the first pitch of an at-bat, batters can expect fastball 68%, curve 12%, slider 10%, and change up 10% of all pitches thrown. When he gets ahead in the count he introduces the curve and change more frequently. Batters are hitting just .202 on the curve ball pitch and just .181 on the change up. Arguably, his ?out? pitch is his change and he throws equally to right and left-handed batters 17% of all pitches during an at-bat. So, batters rarely can sit on a fastball and when they do it has enough movement to make it still difficult to get a hit.

He will also work low-and-away to right handed batters 20% of all pitches thrown and will use an up-and-in fastball 8% of the time to earn respect for the inner part of the plate. The combination of straight-change and curve make it very difficult for right-handed batters.

Also working against the Brewers is that the middle of their lineup consisting of Ryan Braun, Fielder, and Weeks went a combined 3-for-23 in their last two games. I strongly believe Kennedy will get through this part of the lineup without giving up any earned runs.

His control has been fantastic this season. He has had just 71 at-bats go to 2-0 counts and only 16 of those batters went after the next pitch and batted .313 on that count. By comparison he has had 190 at-bats start 0-2 and 108 batters went after the third pitch and batted only .194 on that count. Like so many elite starters batters are forced to attack early in the count because it becomes more difficult the long the at-bat lasts.
Even when it is a hitter?s count at 2-1 batters are hitting just .207 after a 2-1 count. Look for Milwaukee to attack early in the count in a futile attempt to get on base.

Kennedy is 24-9 making 14.9 units against the money line facing teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season; 14-3 making 12.0 units per one unit wagered against the money line facing teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of this season; 12-2 making 10.8 units per one unit wagered against the money line facing a NL team with an on-base-percentage .325 or worse in the second half of this season.

Milwaukee is just 5-14 losing 10.4 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games facing a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last two seasons; 5-17 losing 13.1 units per one unit wagered against the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last two seasons. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Black Widow

1* on Diamondbacks/Brewers UNDER 7.5

We look for another pitcher's duel tonight between Ian Kennedy and Yovani Gallardo. These two squared off in Game 1 with the Brewers coming away with a 4-1 victory. Kennedy is 21-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 34 starts this season, while Gallardo is 11-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.097 WHIP in 17 home starts. Not only have both starters been dominant all season, but they've both pitched very well against their respective opposition. Gallardo is 6-0 with a 1.18 ERA and 0.868 WHIP in six lifetime starts versus Arizona, and Kennedy is 1-2 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in four lifetime starts versus Milwaukee. Enough said. Take the UNDER 7.5 runs here.

WEST CAPPER

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have the biggest home field advantage of any team in the playoffs, going an MLB best 59-24 at home. They are so dynamic at home and are far more aggressive in the strike zone at home. Their ace, Gallardo, is on the mound tonight with Greinke available in the pen. Gallardo has pitched well at home all season long, posting a 10-2 record with a 3.00 ERA compared to a 4.05 ERA on the road. He’s 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA against the DBacks, so he will certainly have confidence going into tonight. He dominated in game one using a heavy sinker, and gives the Brewers an outstanding chance against the right-handed heavy Dbacks.

Ian Kennedy is a viable Cy Young Candidate, winning 21 games this season and going 12-1 with a 2.11 ERA after the All-Star Break. Arizona is attempting to become the 1st team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in a best of five series in the world card era, and Kennedy gives them a great chance. He really kept the Diamondbacks in the game in game one until a Prince Fielder homerun gave the Brewers the lead for good.

We have the Brewers at -170 for 2** units on a futures bet, so we will be passing on the side tonight. I do like the under, so jump on the under 7.5 runs early before it moves to 7. We are going to stay small, so take it for 1* unit.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies

In a postseason that has largely failed in the aspect of starting pitching, tonight will definitely buck that trend. Most of the elite starting pitchers in the postseason (Verlander, Sabathia, Wilson, Kennedy, Halladay, Lee, etc) have been mediocre up to this point, but that will change tonight.
Throw out what Carpenter did in game two, he was throwing on 3-days rest for the first time in his career. Consider this…outside of that game, Carpenter has allowed only one earned run and one walk to the Phillies in 15 innings.

The one chink in Halladay’s armor (if there is one), is lefties hit a respectable .273 against him this year. That puts Berkman in a favorable position, as he hit .307 and 27 home runs this year against righties. Halladay did give up 3 runs in the 1st last start and then went on to throw 7 perfect innings of no-hit ball.

The Phillies offense is getting great production out of Rollins and Utley, but Howard, Ruiz, and Polanco have really struggled. Howard is 0-for-8 with 5 K’s, and only one ball has left the infield. There is a lot of pressure on the Phillies tonight to win, and their offense has certainly been known to struggle for extended periods of time (2010 NLCS against the Giants). The Phillies scored the fewest runs of all the playoff teams this year, so I look for them to struggle against Carpenter.

Nobody is better than Halladay in game five, so I think South Street will be buzzing after a Phillies win tonight. The juice is currently -170, which is too much in my opinion. Halladay has only had two games this year under -165, but I can’t lay that much juice against a true ace like Carpenter. I do like the under 7 runs, with Lee in the bullpen backing up Halladay. We recommend taking the under 7 runs for 1* unit, and jump on this one early because it could go to 6.5 which would cancel any play. Also consider playing the under 3.5 runs for the 1st 5 innings, as I think both pitchers come out with their A game and we could see a 1-0 game entering the 6th.

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers

Getting Justin Verlander at -115 is just a steal. Yes Texas is a great home team and rested, but Verlander is Verlander and the Tigers love left handed pitching. Verlander and CJ Wilson only threw against the other teams once this year, but I like the Tigers to steal game one. Like I said before, I don’t think Verlander will lose this postseason.

CJ Wilson is a great pitcher in his own right, and is well rested for this game, but he struggled at home this season, posting a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average over .025 higher than on the road. He was very good in the second half (2.56 ERA post all-star break), but he’s going against the most dominant pitcher in the big leagues.

I would normally make this a larger play because the Verlander value is incredible, but Delmon Young being out hurts, and Peralta and Victor Martinez have struggled historically against Wilson. I do think Verlander will shut down Hamilton and the Rangers explosive bats, but one thing that worries me is that while Verlander dominates just about everyone, he is slightly better against lefties and the Rangers are very right handed heavy.

One knock on Verlander is he has to control his emotions when he pitches. He just got finished throwing in the biggest game of his life at home against the Yankees, so I think the environment in Arlington won’t cause him to overthrow like he did last game. While the 100+ mph radar gun readings were impressive to watch in the 6th and 7th inning, Verlander is really at his best when his fastball is down in the zone and 95-98 mph.

We will be taking 1* unit on the Tigers (-115) and 1* unit on the under 8 runs.

O.C. Dooley

Cardinals / Phillies Over 6.5

All but one contest of this Divisional Series has played OVER the total and it is easy to see why as the collective pitchers on the St. Louis roster have the lowest strikeout rate in the entire National League. Admittedly the Cardinals have their best pitcher on the mound tonight in Chris Carpenter but the bottom line is that he has struggled in six career postseason starts (5.29 ERA). It was backed in the 2009 playoffs was Carpenter in a particularly shaky mound appearance allowed 14 runners on base in just a five inning span. His lone assignment in this 2011 Divisional series produced only a 3 inning effort in part because the ace was working on short-rest. It was one year ago in his playoff debut when Roy Halladay amazingly pitched a no-hitter, but his start in this series went OVER the number courtesy of a three-run homer off the bat of veteran Lance Berkman. Since that opener the St. Louis lineup has been bolstered with the return of injured slugger Matt Holliday who will in turn give superstar Albert Pujols better pitches to look at. For the Cardinals to extend this series to a deciding game has been a stunning result and one of the reasons are the 6-7-8 hitters in the lineup who have a collective batting average of (.349) which is through the roof. The Philadelphia offense has been bolstered in this series with the insertion of right-hander Hunter Pence in between a pair of lefty sticks (Utley, Howard). The Phillies hitter most worth watching tonight is Jimmy Rollins who is on a contractual “walk year” and is getting hot (9 hits, 7 runs scored) at just the right time. My database research indicates that Philly ace Roy Halladay is 10-3 OVER the total when facing an opponent from the National League Central division. As for St. Louis they are 19-9 OVER the number this season with a low posted total of 7’-or-less runs. We have an exact opposite scenario as opposed to last night’s inflated over/under spot (9 runs) at Yankee Stadium