Chris Jordan
St. Louis at Philadelphia
This once looked like a stone-cold lock Under, with Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay toeing the slab for the St. Louis Cardianls and Philadelphia Phillies, respectively. You have a pair of ace hurlers, annual Cy Young candidates and a berth into the National League Championship Series at stake - it paints the picture of a 1-0 or 2-1 ball game. But tonight, in the decisive fifth game of this epic series, I like the total to soar.
And quite frankly, it all begins with the pitchers.
Beginning with Carpenter, who was 11-9 on the year with a 3.56 ERA, the Cardinals have gone over in two of his last three starts, including the second game of this series, when he opposed Cliff Lee and the Redbirds escaped with the win. The ace right-hander has been on the hill against the Phillies three times this season, and two of those games have gone over. The average tally with these games is 9.3 runs per game. The total tonight is 6' or 7.
And just because Doc Halladay is opposing him, it doesn't necessarily mean a pitchers' duel will ensue. Two of his last three starts have also gone over, but even further, 21 of his 33 trips to the hill have gone high. Halladay has had another spectacular season for the Phillies, there's no disputing that, but he's also shown he can be hit.
In Game 1, in which he started, the total landed 17 runs. In his previous meeting with St. Louis, the Redbirds won, 4-3, thus providing confidence with this team, that it can hit, and beat, the veteran right-hander. In his three starts against St. Louis this season, the average total is 12 runs. That's nearly double tonight's posted number.
While the over is on a 12-2 run in Philly's last 14 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park, the Cardinals have gone over in seven of their last eight meetings with Philly when Carpenter is on the mound.
My money is this one goes high tonight.
3♦ Cardinals-Phillies OVER
Derek Mancini
For tonight's Free Play, I'm releasing a small, but solid play on the Redbirds and Carpenter to surprise a lot of people en route to the NLCS. Guys, I know the knee-jerk reaction is to see Halladay and immediately make a play on the Phillies, but not so fast.
You can throw out Carpenter's sub-par Game 2 effort, as he was clearly thrown off by the short rest. Now fully rested and ready to rock, there's little reason to think the Cardinals ace won't be razor sharp tonight. Moreover, let's not forget Carpenter is 7-2 in his career against the Phillies, and will leave everything out there matched up against counterpart and good friend Roy Halladay.
For as good as Halladay is, the Cardinals did collect 3 runs off of him in Game 1, and will have Holliday in the lineup this time around. We all know what Holliday means to this offense. Moreover, the fact that Ryan Howard has gone cold is bad news for Phillies-backers, he went 0 for 8 in two games in St. Louis and its not going to get any easier against Carpenter tonight.
Finally, a couple trends to consider, St. Louis is 9-2 in their L11 roadies as an underdog, and 12-4 in their L16 road games overall. They're on a 20-6 run vs. right-handed starters, and are 4-0 in Carpenters last 4 road starts. Lastly, the Phillies are 1-6 in their L7 games as a favorite of between -151 and -200. All things considered, I'm advocating a small play on the Redbirds tonight. Take St. Louis with Carpenter over Philadelphia and Halladay Friday.
1♦ ST. LOUIS
Jeff Benton
Your Friday night freebie is the Cardinals-Phillies to go under the total in what will be a classic elimination game pitcher's duel.
Let's face it, Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay are two of the very best in the game at what they do, and while this total is the lowest it has been in the four games already contested, I do not think there will be any offensive eruptions in this game.
Carpenter did allow four runs in Game Two, but he was pitching that one on short rest. Over his last three starts, Carpenter's ERA is just 2.37.
Halladay has an even lower 1.57 ERA over his last three starts, and for the year at home Doc's ERA is just 2.48.
Runs will be at a premium tonight in the City of Brotherly Love.
Take the under in Game Five.
3♦ UNDER
Scott Delaney
On the heels of last night's complimentary winner on the Under in the Cal-Oregon contest, I'm back tonight with the Over in this Western Athletic Conference contest between Boise State and Fresno State. I don't know if anyone else has noticed this about the Broncos, but they've lost their killer instinct to close. And before you think this is a ringing endorsement for Fresno State, stop thinking.
See, it's like this: if Boise State continues to falter in the fourth quarter, then a late surge by Fresno will help push this total over. But if the Broncos find that killer instinct, and put Fresno out of its misery, they'll be the ones to push the total over.
Fresno State couldn't put any points on the board in last year's meeting in Boise, losing 51-0, but in the last three meetings in Fresno the Dawgs have averaged 27.3 points per game. Three of the last five meetings have gone over the posted number, and with this one being in Fresno, I have to believe we're in store for an exciting football game tonight.
Dating back to last season, the Bulldogs have gone over in five of six contests, while their games are averaging 63 points. The total in this game is sitting around 58 or 58-1/2, and I clearly believe it's going into the 60s, and could very well touch 70. Play this one high.
2♦ Boise-Fresno OVER