Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, October 8,2010

JIM FEIST

REDS / PHILLIES
PLAY: OVER

Philadelphia is a terrific offensive park, despite what we saw in Game 1. And these are the top two offensive teams in baseball in run production. Bronson Arroyo goes for the Reds and the team is 4-1 over the total his last 5 starts. Roy Oswalt had his worst games against the Reds this season, with an 0-2 record and a 6.75 ERA. Look for an offensive show, Play the Reds/Phillies Over the total in Game 2.

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Connecticut @ Rutgers
PICK: Over 42.5
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The words high scoring don't come to mind when you think Connecticut-Rutgers. So it's understandable the oddsmaker has set a low total on this matchup.
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The two teams open their Big East Conference season with this Friday night nationally televised (ESPN) matchup. These aren't the marquee teams in the Big East, not by far.
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But with the stage to themselves, and potential recruits watching, look for the Huskies and Scarlet Knights to open things up.
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Connecticut has two good runners, Robbie Frey and Jordan Todman. Frey is out with a knee injury. Todman is the nation's fourth-leading rusher. Rutgers is very strong against the run ranking seventh-best in the country.
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Connecticut coach Randy Edsall is well aware of this. The Huskies' game plan is going to include lots of passing, more than anticipated. Rutgers could be without star defensive end Jesse Joseph, who has a leg injury. It's easier to attack the Scarlet Knights through the air than on the ground.
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Rutgers quarterback Tom Savage has a hand injury and is questionable. If Savage can't go, freshman Chris Dodd would play. He got his feet wet last week against Tulane throwing 29 times for 176 yards and a touchdown.
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Connecticut has scored 40 or more points in three of its games this season. On defense, however, the Huskies have surrendered a combined 72 points to Vanderbilt, Temple and Buffalo. Those three schools all have offensive deficiencies.
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Rutgers hasn't broken the 20-point barrier in its last three games having faced Tulane, North Carolina and Florida International. All three of those schools, though, are much stronger defensively than offensively.
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I'm expecting Connecticut and Rutgers to open things up more with the Big East season starting. Connecticut is 8-1 to the over when favored and has also gone over in its last six Big East games.
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Rutgers has gone over in eight of its last 11 conference matchups. There have been 50 points or more scored in this series during five of the last seven meetings.

Sam Martin

Oklahoma State at La Lafayette
Play: La Lafayette

Too many points here for the home side against an Oklahoma State side that won’t show much interest. We like this Cowboys team, and have backed them a couple of times in our premium selections this year (against Tulsa and Texas A&M), but with a big matchup with Texas Tech on the road on deck, they will be looking past LL tonight. And the Ragin’ Cajuns can put some points up on the board, especially against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 28 or more points three times in four games. No shocking outright upset here, but Cowboys don’t cover the big number!

VEGAS EXPERTS

Oklahoma State at La Lafayette
Play: La Lafayette

This is too large a number for what should be a disinterested Oklahoma State team to be laying. The Cowboys come off a win in their conference opener, a huge comeback at home vs. Texas A&M, and have Texas Tech on deck. Winning this non-conference tilt by a wide margin will not be a priority. It's worth pointing out that the Rajun Cajuns have won two of three here at home vs. Big 12 opponents, including a 17-15 upset of Kansas State last year.

Tom Freese

Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia starter Roy Oswalt has allowed 2 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Phillies are 13-3 their last 16 Playoff home games and they are 50-19 their last 69 home games. The Phillies are 40-15 vs. a team with a winning record and they are 20-6 their 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati starter Bronson Arroyo has allowed 6 runs total in his last 4 starts. The Reds are 18-40 their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning record are 20-44 their last 64 games as road dogs +151 to +200. The Reds are 15-36 their last 51 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The only good news for the Reds is that Arroyo has allowed 6 runs total in his last 4 starts.

EZWINNERS

Connecticut Huskies -5

The Connecticut Huskies will be looking to avenge last years 28-24 home loss to the Scarlet Knights and I expect them to do so in this game. Rutgers quarterback Tom Savage is banged up and the Scarlet Knights offense has been pretty bad so far this season. Even though they have played one of the softest schedule in the nation, Rutgers is averaging less than twenty points per game. In last years loss to Rutgers, the Huskies had a huge advantage in total yards, but it was costly turnovers that led to the Rutgers victory. Considering how limited the Rutgers offense has been this season I once again expect UCONN to have a huge advantage in total yards, but I expect the Huskies to minimize the mistakes and put points on the scoreboard. The Huskies are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games against Rutgers and I look for that success to continue. Lay the points.

Brad Diamond Sports

Phillies over Cincinnati

Doc Halladay circumvented the Reds attack on Wednesday with a classic no-hitter that now ranks second in post season hurling excellence only to former Yankees right-hander Don Larsen who was perfect in the 1952 World Series. Former Houston hurler Roy Oswalt gets his chance now to shutdown the Cincinnati offense (ranked #1). Behind Oswalt the Phillies have won 6 straight at home, while the Reds are still deficient at the Linc showing a 3-13 legend.

LT Profits

Philadelphia Phillies -1½

Roy Oswalt has a tough act to follow for the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of the NLDS after Roy Halladay tossed the second no-hitter in MLB post-season history in Game 1, but we look for Oswalt to pitch well enough for the Phillies to cover the Run Line vs. Bronson Arroyo and the Cincinnati Reds on Friday..

The bookmakers have set the betting odds on the -1½ Run Line here at +110.

The Phillies are now a perfect 5-0 vs. the Reds here at Citizens Bank Park this year combining regular season and playoffs, and they are 6-2 vs. Cincinnati overall in 2010. Going back further, the Phillies are 20-8 in the last 28 head-to-head meetings, and they have a substantial edge in post-season experience.

Oswalt is in simply raging form right now, as he closed out the regular season by allowing a grand total of one run and 13 hits in 27 innings over his last four starts, with 24 strikeouts vs. five walks! Remember that Oswalt used to dominate the Reds every year when he was pitching for Houston, and he should now relish this chance to do so again in the post-season, as this is the position he wanted to be in when he requested to be traded from the Astros this year.

Now, Bronson Arroyo has a good year for the Reds, going 17-10 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The problem is that ‘good’ will not cut it today given the simply unconscious form that Oswalt is in, and Arroyo allowed at least five runs in each of his last two starts vs. Philadelphia. In fact, while Arroyo has done well vs. the rest of the league, he has failed to record a Quality Start in any of his last five career starts vs. the Phils.

Look for Philadelphia to take a 2-0 series lead with a multiple run win.

Bobby Maxwell

Oklahoma State at Louisiana-Lafayette OVER 62

Oklahoma State is lighting up the scoreboard this season and the Cowboys will do it again tonight in Lafayette when they make their first road trip of the season to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns. I actually expect Lafayette to do some scoring as well that will easily get us to the over here tonight.

Oklahoma State has twice scored 65 points this season with their other two games coming in at 41 and 38. The Cowboys have topped the total in all four games and they went over the total last time they saw the Cajuns, winning 56-3 back in 2003 as 36-point favorites with a total set at 51.5.

Lafayette has topped the total in three of their first four games of the season. They are giving up 35 points a game this season and a stunning 151.5 yards rushing per contest. Oklahoma State is already putting up 52.2 points per game and stunning totals of 4.8 yards per rush and 9.1 yards per pass. Lafayette isn’t too bad at home, putting up 22.5 points a game. So I see them chipping in their part and now just need to see Oklahoma State get close to the 50-point mark again.

The Cowboys have exciting wide receiver Justin Blackmon who scored his 10th TD of the season last week on a 29-yard TD catch. QB Brandon Weeden seems to be growing into the position and he finished last week’s game with 284 yards and two TDs after a shaky beginning. He has 13 TD passes this season and he’s found Blackmon nine times in the end zone and he’s totaled 558 yards receiving.

This Oklahoma St. offense is locked and loaded and ready for an already suspect Lafayette defense.

The Cowboys have gone over the number in four of their last five games after a straight-up win, four of five against the Sun Belt Conference and four of five after a lazy pass. Lafayette has also topped the total a few times lately, including 4-1 overall, 10-2 in October and 6-1 against Big 12 teams.

I know it’s a high number, but don’t be afraid. These two teams will light up the scoreboard. Look for something in the 45-31 range.

3♦ OVER

Karl Garrett

Oklahoma State (-24) at UL -LAFAYETTE

For your free play, go with Oklahoma State to run up the big number against the Ragin' Cajuns tonight in Lafayette.

UL-Lafayette barely eeked-out a 28-27 win over an injury-ravaged North Texas teams, and now they must face a Cowboys team that has had an extra day to get ready after their explosion against Texas A&M last Thursday night in Stillwater.

This Oklahoma State team can score in bunches and I don't see the Cajuns keeping up with them tonight.

Mike Gundy's team is a solid 13-6 their last 19 laying double-digits, and they are also 4-1 their last 5 when laying 20-points or more.

As for UL-Lafayette, they are only 2-5 against the spread as the home underdog since 2007.

Lay away!

2♦ OKLAHOMA STATE

Chuck O'Brien

Cincinnati at PHILADELPHIA

For Friday’s complimentary selection, go ahead and lay the 1½ runs with the Phillies and play them on the run line against Cincinnati in the second game of their best-of-5 playoff series.

You know one of my favorite phrases is “the numbers don’t lie.” Well, that cliché certainly applies to this game. Here are those numbers:

After Roy Halladay’s phenomenal no-hitter in Game 1, the Phillies have now defeated the Reds five straight times (all five wins were at Citizens Bank Park) and they’re 15-5 in the last 20 meetings, including 11-2 in the last 13 clashes in Philadelphia (seven wins in a row). And while Cincinnati is playing sub-.500 baseball since Sept. 5 (12-16 overall; 4-11 on the road), Philadelphia is on a sick 50-19 roll, winning 28 of its last 36 and 13 of 17 at home.

What about the pitching matchup? Well, two days after getting dominated by Halladay, the Reds’ offense gets to face Roy Oswalt. The former Astros hurler went 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts) with the Phillies; he was 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in six home starts (all Philly victories); he allowed just two runs (one earned) in his final four starts covering 27 innings; and he’s 23-3 with a 2.81 ERA in his career against Cincinnati.

The Reds’ Bronson Arroyo quietly enjoyed a solid season, going 17-10 with a 3.88 ERA, but he’s 1-5 with a 5.54 ERA in his career against the Phillies. In his two most recent starts against Philadelphia (both in 2008), Arroyo gave up five runs in each contest while allowing a collective 19 hits and seven home runs in exactly 10 innings.

4♦ PHILLIES -1.5

Joel Tyson

Atlanta at SAN FRANCISCO

Have to go under the total in this Braves-Giants game tonight at AT&T Park.

Last night's game ended up with the Braves getting just 2 hits and striking out 14 times against Giants hurler Tim Lincecum. That makes it 7 of the last 9 games for Atlanta having played under the posted total.

Braves starter Tommy Hanson has been lights-out down the stretch with a 0.48 ERA over his last 3 starts.

San Francisco will counter with Matt Cain whose season ERA stands at 3.14, so it does not seem likely to me that Atlanta's offensive woes are going to be halted this evening.

The Giants are on a 13-3 under clip their last 16 games, and have played low in 17 of their last 21 following a win.

No sense in trying to overthink this free play.

Just go under.

4♦ UNDER

SPORTS WAGERS

Carolina +1.02 over Minnesota

Note the 12:00 PM EST start. Game two in Finland between these two and there’s no reason whatsoever not to expect a similar result. Fact is, it’s a lot tougher to win the second game after losing the first and it sure doesn’t hurt that Cam Ward looked razor sharp. The Wild, as mentioned yesterday, is a team in trouble. Goals against will likely be a problem all season long and so will its offense. The Canes on the other hand are a team on the rise. They started coming on at the end of last season when they closed the year with a 21-10-3 record over its last 34 games and they surely have a psychological edge here as well. And just like we mentioned yesterday, until the Wild show us something different, we’ll continue to play against them when they’re favored. Play: Carolina +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

ATLANTA +1.56 over WASHINGTON

The Caps are early season favorites to go all the way and they probably should be. They’re loaded up front and they’re going to win a lot of games. Having said that, they’re still flawed defensively, its goaltending situation is unstable and when you wager on the Caps you’re going to pay a premium to do so and that’s something you should always find unappealing. The Caps figured that last year’s shocking playoff loss to the Habs was a fluke and thus, they made less changes than any team in the NHL. They’re basically going with the same squad. The Thrashers, meanwhile, were active in the off-season and they’re greatly improved. They took advantage of Chicago's salary cap crunch to land the likes of Dustin Byfuglien, Ben Eager and Brent Sopel in a trade for three players, including Marty Reasoner, and a pair of 2010 draft picks. They also signed Andrew Ladd and he’s one of the best in the business in getting under the skin of the opposition. These were great pickups. Evander Kane and Zach Begosion are two of the best young players in the game and the supporting cast is rock solid with Nik Andropov, Rich Peverley, Bryan Little and Bergfors. Bottom line here is that the Thrashers are very undervalued to open the season and they’re definitely worth a look here. Play: Atlanta +1.56 (Risking 2 units).

Rocketman

Buffalo @ Ottawa
Play: Ottawa -120

Ottawa has won 10 of the last 12 meetings overall the past 3 years. Ottawa is 5-1 at home vs Buffalo the past 3 seasons. Sabres are 1-4 in their last 5 overall. Sabres are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Northeast. Sabres are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Sabres are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Sabres are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog. Sabres are 0-4 in their last 4 road games. Senators are 23-8 in their last 31 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Sabres are 6-20 in the last 26 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Ottawa tonight!