SPORTS ADVISORS
ALDS
Minnesota (0-1) at N.Y. Yankees (1-0)
A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04) makes his first career postseason start as he tries to guide the Yankees to a 2-0 lead in this best-of-5 series with the Twins, who will counter with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.07).
CC Sabathia put aside past playoff disappointments and pitched New York to a 7-2 victory in Game 1. The Yankees are now 8-0 against the Twins this season, including 5-0 in the Bronx. Furthermore, New York is 48-16 in the last 64 meetings overall and 26-5 in the last 31 clashes in the Bronx.
The Twins, who earned the A.L. Central title on Monday with a 6-5, 12-inning victory over Detroit in a one-game playoff, are still 17-5 in their last 22 games. They’re also on positive runs of 7-4 on the road, 21-6 against right-handed starters, 11-3 on the highway against righty starters, 29-11 after an off day, 36-15 on Friday and 5-1 in the second game of a series. On the downside, Ron Gardenhire’s squad is in playoff slumps of 5-16 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-10 in divisional games, 1-10 as an underdog.
The Yankees are on impressive runs of 42-17 overall, 42-13 in their new stadium, 38-14 against the A.L. Central and 41-17 versus teams with a winning record. However, Joe Girardi’s squad, which has made the postseason 14 of the last 15 years, has lost back-to-back divisional series, and despite Wednesday’s victory, New York is just 2-6 in its last eight playoff games, all as a favorite.
Blackburn was a key to Minnesota’s late-season surge, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA over his last four starts, with the Twins winning all four games. Also, since Aug. 21, the right-hander has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of nine starts, posting a 2.28 ERA in four road outings during this stretch, three of which Minnesota won. For the season, Blackburn was 4-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 17 starts as a visitor.
Although the Twins came out on top in each of Blackburn’s last four regular-season starts, they’re just 8-20 in his last 28 road outings, 3-8 in his last 11 against A.L. East squads and 4-11 in his last 14 as a road pup. Blackburn has made four career starts against the Yankees, going 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA, including a 6-4 loss at Yankee stadium on May 16. This is the 27-year-old’s first career playoff start.
Like Blackburn, Burnett was strong down the stretch, giving up just seven runs (five earned) in his final four starts covering 24 innings (1.46 ERA), and he recorded 28 strikeouts versus 10 walks over this four-game stretch. With Burnett on the hill, the Yankees are on hot streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 against the A.L. Central and 13-5 as a favorite.
New York went 12-4 in the veteran right-hander’s 16 starts at New Yankee Stadium, with Burnett posting a 5-3 record and a 3.51 ERA. Against the Twins in his career, Burnett is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA in six starts, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two games this year, as the Yanks won 3-2 at home and 4-3 on the road.
When Blackburn pitches, the under is on runs of 16-5-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a road underdog and 3-0-1 against the A.L. East, and with Burnett working, the under is on stretches of 3-1-1 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 5-1 against the A.L. Central, 10-4 as a favorite and 5-0 on Friday
Minnesota is on “over” streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 6-3-1 on the road, 4-0-1 against right-handed starts and 13-5-2 as a road underdog, but the under is 19-6-2 in its last 27 against the A.L. East and 11-2-1 in its last 14 after a defeat. For New York, the “under” is on runs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 versus the A.L. Central.
Finally, the under is 28-11-4 in the last 44 Twins-Yankees battles in New York (3-1-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
Boston (0-1) at L.A. Angels (1-0)
Looking to draw even in their best-of-5 ALDS with the Angels, the Red Sox send postseason specialist Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86 ERA) to the mound at Angel Stadium in Anaheim opposite Los Angeles’ Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.63) in Game 2.
The Angels’ Torii Hunter belted a three-run, fifth-inning homer and ace John Lackey threw 7 1/3 innings of shutout baseball to lead Los Angeles to Thursday’s 5-0 opening-game victory.
This is the third straight year and the fourth time since 2004 that the Red Sox and Angels have faced off in an opening-round playoff series, and Boston has come out on top each time, winning nine of the previous 10 contests. Last year, the Red Sox won the best-of-5 series in four games, including winning the first two contests at Angel Stadium.
This year, the Angels won the season series from Boston 5-4, going 4-2 in Anaheim, and since the start of 2008, Los Angeles is 14-4 in regular-season play versus the Sox (7-2 at Angel Stadium).
The Red Sox are still on positive streaks of 4-1 overall, 9-5 as a favorite, 13-6 as a road favorite and 21-9 versus right-handed starters. Also, in postseason action, Terry Francona’s club remains on surges of 13-6 overall, 7-3 on the road, 6-2 in divisional contests (all against the Angels) and 6-3 in divisional road games (4-1 in Anaheim).
Los Angeles is 52-28 since July 10, including 8-1 in the last eight, and Mike Scioscia’s squad is 50-32 in Anaheim this season (5-1 in the last six). The Halos carry further positive trends of 23-6 as a home underdog and 49-21 after a victory. However, the Angels have still lost 10 of their last 12 playoff contests (nine of 11 to Boston) and six of seven home playoff games, and they’re 2-5 in their last seven as a playoff pup.
Beckett is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 career playoff starts with three complete games and three shutouts. Last year he allowed four runs on nine hits over five innings of a 5-4 loss to the Angles in Boston in Game 3 of the ALDS, but the year before he faced the Halos in this round and threw a four-hit complete-game shutout, winning 4-0.
Beckett saw these Angels on Sept. 17 and allowed three runs over eight innings of a 4-3 loss in Boston, his last defeat of the regular season. In fact, Boston has actually lost Beckett’s last five starts to the Angels as the right-hander allowed three runs or more in each of the five. Beckett is just 2-3 with a 4.13 ERA in eight career regular-season starts against Los Angeles.
Beckett closed the season on Saturday at home against the Indians, allowing four runs over five innings of an 11-6 win. The Red Sox are on runs of 19-8 in Beckett’s last 27 starts and 10-1 when he gets five days off, but just 2-6 when he faces a team with a winning record.
Weaver is 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA at home this season, and the Angels snapped a three-game losing streak behind the right-hander on Friday when Weaver threw five shutout innings in Oakland, beating the A’s 5-2. The young right-hander looked good against Boston this season, giving up just two runs (one earned) in two starts that spanned 13 2/3 innings. For his career, he is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA in eight regular-season starts against the Red Sox.
Weaver faced Boston in the 2007 postseason and gave up two runs on four hits in five innings but the Angels lost at home 9-1. Los Angeles is on runs of 17-8 behind Weaver overall, 35-16 when Weaver starts at home and 5-1 when he works at home against teams with a winning record.
The Red Sox have topped the total in eight of Beckett’s last 10 starts overall, but stayed below the number in four of his last five outings against A.L. West opponents. As a team, Boston is on “over” streaks of 6-2 against right-handed starters, 5-2 on the road against right-handers, 5-3 overall and 5-2 on Fridays, however it has stayed below the number in six of eight road playoff games.
It’s been all “unders” for the Angels, including 24-7-1 overall, 15-5-1 against right-handed starters, 14-5-1 against teams with winning records, 6-2-2 in ALDS games and 5-0-1 with Weaver on the hill. Finally, the “over” is 4-1-1 in Weaver’s last six against Boston, but the “under” is 3-1-1 in his last five at home against the BoSox.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Louisiana Tech (2-2, 1-2 ATS) at Nevada (1-3 SU and ATS)
Louisiana Tech goes after its third straight win overall and its second consecutive Western Athletic Conference victory when it travels to Mackey Stadium in Reno to take on the Wolf Pack, who finally kickoff their WAC season.
After getting destroyed on the road at Auburn (37-13) and Navy (32-14), the Bulldogs came home and got healthy with dominating wins over Division I-AA Nicholls State (48-13 in a non-lined contest) and Hawaii 27-6 as a six-point favorite). In last Friday’s victory over Hawaii, Louisiana Tech piled up 449 total yards, including 352 on the ground (6.2 per carry) while holding the explosive Warriors to 301 yards, including minus-7 rushing yards.
Nevada opened the season with three straight blowout losses and non-covers to Notre Dame (35-0 on the road), Colorado State (35-20 on the road) and Missouri (31-21 at home), but the Wolf Pack did the pounding on Saturday, crushing instate rival UNLV 63-28. Nevada outgained the Rebels 773-346 (559-70 on the ground) and won by 35 points despite committing four turnovers and 15 penalties (for 169 yards). Mike Ball rushed for 184 yards and five TDs, while QB Colin Kaepernick finally had his breakout game with 208 passing yards and a touchdown, as well as 173 rushing yards.
The Wolf Pack have won four straight meetings in this series (3-1 ATS). However, after three straight double-digit romps, Nevada had to work hard for last year’s 35-31 victory at La-Tech, falling just short as a 4½-point road chalk. In the Bulldogs’ last trip to Reno, they got pummeled 49-10 as a seven-point road ‘dog, as they were outgained 641-228. The home team and the favorite are both 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Louisiana Tech is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference contests, but otherwise the Bulldogs are in ATS funks of 14-37-1 on the highway (1-8-1 last 10 as a visitor), 13-28 as an underdog, 16-36-1 as a road pup, 7-19 when catching more than 10 points, 3-10 as a road pup in WAC games, 4-9 in October and 1-4 against teams with a losing record.
Nevada has cashed in 22 of its last 31 at Mackay Stadium, including 20 of 27 as a home chalk, and it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 when laying more than 10 points and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite in conference games. However, the Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after a non-cover.
The over is 5-2 in the Bulldogs’ last seven WAC contests, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 7-2 on the highway, 8-3 as a ‘dog and 7-1 as a road pup. Nevada carries “over” trends of 4-1 in WAC action, 4-1 as a favorite, 5-0 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these schools (3-1 in the last four at Nevada).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEVADA and OVER
DUNKEL
Minnesota at NY Yankees
The Twins look to bounce back from Game One's 7-2 loss and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in the previous game. Minnesota is the pick (+260) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+260)
Game 963-964: Minnesota at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.175; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.715
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-290); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+260); Under
Game 965-966: Boston at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.229; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.499
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAF
Louisiana Tech at Nevada
The Wolf Pack look to take advantage of a Louisiana Tech team that is 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Nevada is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolf Pack favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-10 1/2)
Game 305-306: Louisiana Tech at Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 76.615; Nevada 89.228
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 12 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Nevada by 10 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-10 1/2); Over
NHL
Dallas at Calgary
The Stars look to take advantage of a Calgary team that is 3-13 in its last 16 games when playing with 0 days to rest. Dallas is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+160)
Game 51-52: Florida at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.582; Carolina 11.490
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+150); Under
Game 53-54: Dallas at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.539; Calgary 11.334
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+160); Over
WNBA
Phoenix at Indiana
The Mercury look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games as a favorite between 5 and 9 1/2 points. Phoenix is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5)
Game 609-610: Indiana at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 112.382; Phoenix 119.576
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 174
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 178
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5); Under
Charlie Scott
Louisiana Tech vs. Nevada
Play: Under 58
The public perception of Nevada is a high powered WAC offense. The perception is correct in a way, however Nevada does run their pistol offense which is a running game that chews up the game clock. Nevada has had 1 game out of 4 lined games go Over 58 and that was last weeks rivalry blow out vs UNLV, where Nevada scored most of their points in the 4th quarter vs a UNLV defense that flat out quit. LA Tech is well coached by Derek Dooley who puts an emphasis on running the ball and playing defense. During the Vegas Insider Seminar this summer, handicappers had LA Tech as a suprise team. In 3 lined games this season for LA Tech, their highest scoring game has been in a loss at Auburn 13-37 opening week. I made this total 52 and I'm on the UNDER !
DC Riley
British Columbia at Edmonton
As the CFL regular season nears the end there is a crowded bunch desperately in need of a break out. Tonight The Edmonton Eskies(6-7) host the British Columbia Lions(6-7) in an all important battle for playoff jockeying. Edmonton already leads this years series and looks to shake off a disappointing road lost to the cellar dwellers Winnipeg Blue Bombers. In a very lack luster effort the Eskies did have some bright sports but in the end when QB Ricky Ray throws under 200 yards and a pick Edmonton is bound to loss.
The Lions have struggled all year to be the once dominant team of prior years and with both talented QBs hurt they looked destined to crumble. BC has come together as a team and is making a late season push to the playoffs. With many key core veteran players still on the squad this team has the experience and pride to pull off this road victory. BC is 3-1 H2H LT4 vs. Edmonton and 4-4SU LT8 in Edmonton. As a road dog after a conference game scoring over 17 points BC is 10-2ATS and 10-ATS as road dog vs. division opponents after a division game.
This is a situation where we have 2 teams going in 2 different directions. On paper these teams match up evenly and it will come down to BCs veteran coaching and savvy to Edmontons lack of experienced coaching. The Eskies are 7-12-1ATS a home fav with odds set at -4 to -7.5 and are 8-16-1 vs the West LT25 games.
Lets take the resurging veteran team and the points to cover for the free pick winner.
Pick: BC Lions +4
Bobby Maxwell
Louisiana Tech at NEVADA -10'
I delivered my third straight FREE winner on Thursday as the Dodgers got the win in Game 2 of their series with the Cardinals. For a fourth straight comp winner, I'm on the college gridiron with a play on Nevada as the Wolf Pack host Louisiana Tech in WAC play.
Nevada is getting better every week and last week really put it all togehter. Tied at 21-21 with UNLV, Nevada proceeded to score 42 points in the second half and beat the Rebels 63-28, rushing for an amazing 559 yards and gaining 773 for the contest. All those yards came despite the fact the Wolf Pack turned the ball over four times and had 169 yards in penalties.
QB Colin Kaepernick had struggled to regain the form he had in 2008, but he found it on Saturday, throwing for 208 yards and a TD, catching a TD pass and rushing for 173 yards. This kid has a ton of talent, but he might have been forcing things early in the season to try and live up to the high expectations.
Nevada had three players with 170 yards rushing or more, including Mike Ball who ran for 184 yards and five TDs against UNLV.
Against Louisiana Tech, Nevada has won four straight meetings, but failed to get the cash last year in a 35-31 road loss as the Bulldogs showed some heart. However, in their last meeting to Reno, the 'Dogs were beaten 49-10 and came nowhere near covering as a seven-point road 'dog.
Louisiana Tech is on ATS nosedives of 14-37-1 on the road, 1-8-1 in the last 10 roadies, 13-28 as a 'dog, 16-36-1 as a road 'dog, 3-10 as a WAC road 'dog and 7-19 when catching more than 10 points.
On the other side, Nevada is 22-9 ATS at Mackay Stadium, 20-7 as a home favorite, 10-2 when laying more than 10 points and 11-3 as a home favorite in WAC games.
The Wolf Pack are looking good and you'll see them drastically reduce the turnovers and penalties tonight. Play Nevada to get the blowout win.
4♦ NEVADA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Minnesota at NY YANKEES
Very interested in the OVER in the Bronx tonight, as we feel the Yankees 7 runs on Wednesday was just the tip of the iceberg.
While we are unwilling to lay -300 or so with the Yankees, we will look for the power of their bats to carry us close to the total in this game, and for the Twins to add a couple to take us OVER the total in Game Two.
Both Nick Blackburn, and AJ Burnett have been pitching quality ball down the stretch, but in Blackburn's last 3 assignments against the Yanks, he has allowed 11 earned run in just 15 innings of work.
As for Burnett, we all know he is capable of throwing 7 scoreless innings, but he has been prone to the one big ugly inning outburst.
With the Twins having played OVER in 5 of their last 6 games, we prefer to look to the offense to get us in the OVER column before this one is in the books.
Play on the OVER.
3♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Minnesota at NY YANKEES
G-Man is thinking LOW this Friday night in the Bronx.
Wednesday's game held UNDER the total, as that makes 5 games played in the Bronx between the teams this season, 3 of them UNDER, and a push in there as well.
Both Nick Blackburn, and AJ Burnett have been throwing well down the stretch, as Blackburn's last 21 innings of work have seen just 3 earned runs score, while Burnett's last 17 innings of work have seen only 4 runs cross.
The Yankees are on a 6-2-1 UNDER run their last 9 games, and I can easily see both pitchers hanging some circular numbers on the board in this one.
Until we actually play an OVER in this series, look for the pitching to keep the hitting in check, and go with the UNDER.
1♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
Minnesota at NY YANKEES
For Friday, I’m going to play the Twins on the run line – so plus-1½ runs – against the Yankees in Game 2 of their playoff series from the Bronx.
I expect a better effort from Minnesota, particularly offensively, in this contest. For one thing, they don’t have to deal with CC Sabathia tonight. For another, they won’t be running on fumes like they were in Game 1, which was played some 18 hours after the Twins beat the Tigers in 12 innings in that one-game playoff in the Metrodome. The players had all of Thursday and most of today to rest not only their bodies, but their minds, as well. They will be a totally different team from a “freshness” standpoint and should get some pretty good hacks in against A.J. Burnett.
Speaking of Burnett, I just don’t trust the guy. While his overall numbers were solid, the hard-throwing right-hander still had periodic bouts with inconsistency, and with this being his first ever playoff start – in Yankee Stadium, no less – I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him crumble (or at least struggle) under the pressure.
As for Twins right-hander Nick Blackburn, I admit he had his own consistency issues in the regular season, and this is his first playoff appearance, too. But at least Blackburn has some experience pitching in must-win games, as he made four starts over the final three weeks of the season while the Twins were desperately trying to track down the Tigers for first place in the A.L. Central. And the right-hander delivered all four times, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA over those four starts (Minnesota went 4-0). He also was strong in his final four road starts of the season (2.28 ERA, with Minnesota going 3-1).
So why take the 1½ runs with the Twins here and not playing them to win outright? Well, for one thing, we’re almost certainly going to see Mariano Rivera tonight for New York, and I highly doubt the Twins will hit him. But also, Burnett has faced the Twins three times since last September (twice this year with the Yanks, once last year with Toronto) and his teams won all three games, but all by a single run (5-4, 3-2 and 4-3). Also, three of Burnett’s last four starts were one-run affairs (the Yankees went 2-1). Finally, while New York has won all eight meetings with the Twins this season, four were decided by a single run, and two others were two-run games (including an extra-innings contest).
Bottom line: The now well-rested Twins have the kind of pesky offense that can manufacture runs all night, and as long as Blackburn delivers a six- or seven-inning solid effort, Minnesota – which gets its full complement of nine at-bats as the road team – will keep this thing within one run. Take the 1½ runs with the visitor.
3♦ MINNESOTA +1.5
JIM FEIST
BOSTON RED SOX / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
TAKE: OVER
How healthy is Josh Beckett? He had some back spasms the last month and allowed four runs on seven hits in five innings against the Indians Saturday. He has a 4.50 ERA this season against the Angels. The Angels and Red Sox have two of the Top 3 offenses in baseball. LA has a run-oriented offense, aggressive on the base paths, and that's an edge on offense here as Boston catchers Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek can't throw anyone out. Look for more offense in Game 2 than oddsmakers expect, Play the Red Sox/Angels Over the total in Game 2!
LT Profits
Florida Panthers @ Carolina Hurricanes
The Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes went Under in four of their last five head-to-head meetings last season with none of the Unders exceeding five total goals scored, and we look for a carbon copy tonight.
The Hurricanes struggled offensively down the stretch last season, and unfortunately those struggles have carried over into this season, as they have scored a grand total of just four goals in three games while failing to score more than two goals in any game.
That said, goaltender Cam Ward carried this team to the playoffs last season, and was almost single-handedly responsible for Carolina advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, upsetting the New Jersey Devils and the top-seeded Boston Bruins along the way. The combination of Ward in net and a punchless offense makes the Canes prime Under candidates virtually every game.
As for the Panthers, it would be understandable if they are a bit lethargic here, as this is their first game stateside after splitting their first two games with the Chicago Blackhawks in Helsinki, Finland. They were shut out 4-0 in the last game, managing a modest 23 shots on goal vs. a Chicago team not renowned for its defense.
We look for the Panthers to struggle again vs. a stiffer Carolina unit, which should result in yet another Under in this series.
Pick: Panthers / Hurricanes Under 5.5
Tom Freese
Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames
Prediction: Under
Calgary is 4-0 UNDER when playing with no rest and they are 4-0 UNDER vs. Pacific Division teams The Flames are 5-2-1 UNDER on Friday and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. Dallas is 10-4-1 UNDER vs. Northwest Division teams and they are 6-2 UNDER after allowing 5 or more goals in their last game. The Stars are 17-3-2 UNDER their last 22 games in Calgary including going 6-0-2 UNDER their last 8 meetings in Calgary. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
Play: Under 10
Both of these starting pitchers have pitched very well to end the regular season. In his last three starts for the Twins, Nick Blackburn is 1-0 with an ERA of just 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.90. The Yankees AJ Burnett is 2-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 2.12 and a WHIP of 1.29. I don't see a slugfest breaking out here with these two ground ball pitchers. Only two out of the eight games between these two clubs this season have gone over 10 total runs scored and the Under is 28-11-4 in the last 43 meetings overall between these two teams played in New York. Play on the UNDER.
Lenny Del Genio
Minnesota Twins at NY Yankees
The Twins have to beat the Yankees sooner or later, and why not tonight considering they are now "rested" and we find the team at 27-10 when playing with a day off? Minnesota has won each of Nick Blackburn's previous four starts as he's allowed just five runs in 27.3 IP. Despite a losing road record, Blackburn has pitched well away from the Metrodome with a 3.89 ERA. Jorge Posada's whining might be a distraction for the heavily favored Yankees. Minnesota is worth a shot at this price.
Play on: Minnesota
Vegas Experts
Louisiana Tech at Nevada
This total is pretty high because Nevada scored 63 points last time out, but the numbers suggest a low-scoring affair. LA Tech Derek Dooley has a 7-0 Under record during his three-year tenure in Ruston when his team plays on turf. The Bulldogs have also gone Under in six straight road games if they turned the ball over one or less times the previous game. They were mistake free against Hawaii. LA Tech averages just 13 PPG on the road. Nevada, meanwhile, is 10-2 Under following a game where they lost the TO margin by two or more.
Play on: Under
Red Hott Locks
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are coming off a big win against Hawaii, but now travel north to face a Nevada Wolf Pack team brimming with confidence after a 63-28 intrastate beatdown of UNLV. The Pack offense showed signs of life against Missouri two weeks ago and now seems to have clicked. The matchup in this game versus the Bulldogs will be run defense versus run defense. Both these teams are two of the best in the country defending the ground attack so each will need to go to the air frequently in this game which will favor Nevada. The Bulldogs are just a few notches more dependent on the run that the Wolf Pack. With quarterback Colin Kaepernick finding a rhythm the last couple of games (15-18, 208 yards, TD last week) he should be able to expose a weak La. Tech secondary. Both teams are battle-tested with the Bulldogs having contended with Auburn and Navy while Nevada butted heads with Notre Dame and Missouri. Even without running back Vai Taua (who is probable for Friday), the Pack running attack rushed for 576 yards in that UNLV game with the top three carriers each going for 170 yards or more. I sincerely doubt we see those kinds of numbers against La. Tech, but Kaepernick should have at least 300 yards through the air at the end of this affair. The Bulldogs will have to find success on the ground and attempt to keep Nevada’s offense on the sidelines, but again, that may be easier said than done against elite defensive ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch. The Wolf Pack has a very meager secondary, but quarterback Ross ******* just isn’t a guy you want sitting in the pocket disbursing the ball all night. His team found a lot of running room against Hawaii, but he missed a few easy throws in that contest and finished completing only 13-of-22 passes for 97 yards. You can just tell his is a game-manager and not a player that can beat you with his arm. Receiver/returner Philip Livas will have to get at least 15 touches and two scores in this game for the Bulldogs to have any chance. Another rowdy Reno crowd will put this one away early and allow Nevada to cruise to its first WAC victory because Tech won’t be able to catch up when it gets down.
RHL Prediction: Nevada 42, Louisiana Tech 24