DUNKEL INDEX
NCAAF
West Virginia at Marshall
The Mountaineers look to take advantage of a Marshall team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 Friday games. West Virginia is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Mountaineers favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-13)
Game 303-304: West Virginia at Marshall (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 96.037; Marshall 80.268
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 16; 48
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 13; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-13); Over
Game 305-306: UTEP at Houston (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 77.959; Houston 95.650
Dunkel Line: Houston by 17 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Houston by 20; 73 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+20); Under
MLB
Baltimore at Detroit
The Orioles look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-5 in Armando Galarraga's last 6 home starts. Baltimore is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140)
Game 951-952: Florida at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanabia) 14.972; Washington (Lannan) 15.881
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Under
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.941; NY Mets (Mejia) 16.357
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+200); Over
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.309; Cincinnati (Bailey) 13.607
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+210); Under
Game 957-958: St. Louis at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.865; Atlanta (Minor) 13.961
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Over
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.811; Houston (Happ) 14.798
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Under
Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 13.752; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.501
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Over
Game 963-964: Arizona at Colorado (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Saunders) 16.295; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.375
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+170); Over
Game 965-966: San Francisco at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.923; San Diego (Richard) 15.248
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under
Game 967-968: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 15.399; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.902
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+135); Over
Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.839; Toronto (Cecil) 15.208
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-130); Under
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Millwood) 17.420; Detroit (Galarraga) 15.763
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Under
Game 973-974: NY Yankees at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 14.904; Texas (Wilson) 16.435
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-145); Over
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 15.527; White Sox (Buehrle) 14.010
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+175); Under
Game 977-978: Boston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 15.534; Oakland (Cahill) 14.902
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Pauley) 14.501; LA Angels (Weaver) 14.214
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+180); Over
CFL
Calgary at Edmonton
The Stampeders look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games in September. Calgary is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-10 1/2)
Game 491-492: Calgary at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 120.100; Edmonton 105.028
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 15; 50
Vegas Line: Calgary by 10 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-10 1/2); Under
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St Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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When the Cardinals meet the Astros in the opener of this three-game series in Houston this evening they will take the field knowing ace right-hander Chris Carpenter has not tossed in the towel this month as he enters tonight contest with wins in eight of his last 11 team starts. He's also 15-5 in his last 20 road team starts during the month of September. With Carpenter in terrific KW form with three walks and 15 strikeouts in his last three efforts, and also 6-1 in his career team starts in this series, look for the Carpenter to saw off the Astros here tonight.
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UTEP vs. Houston U
Play: Over 74.5
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The last 2 meetings eclipsed totals of 68.5 and 73.5. UTEP has gone over in 9 of their last 12 road games. Miners QB Trevor Vittatoe after 33 TDs in 2008, took a step back last year with just 17 and 13 picks. In this 58-41 shootout last year, Vittatoe tossed for 276 and 2 TDs. Major damage in the run game delieverd by RB Donald Bruckram who mauled the Cougars for 262 yards and 4 TDs. Dark horse Heisman hopefull QB Case Keenum put up video-game-esq numbers of 51-76 with 536 yards passing and 5 TDs with no INTs.
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UTEP vs. Houston U
Play: UTEP +19.5
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Both teams have started the year off 1-0. UTEP won at home 31-10 over Arkansas Pine Bluff, including the defense shutting them down in the second half. Houston won big time at home in their opener 68-28. Houston is prone to give up points and get into shootouts like they did last year against UTEP losing 58-41. UTEP had just one win on the road last year, but it was in their first road game of the year and in the final three they lost by 7 or fewer points on in overtime. Look for UTEP to start off on the road like they did last year and beat Houston also like they did last year.
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Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Boston Red Sox
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Clay Buchholz is having a borderline Cy Young season right now. The Red Sox righty is 15-6 with a 2.31 ERA in 24 starts. On the road, Buchholz is 8-2 with a 2.13 ERA. The righty has given up just four runs and 15 hits in his last 18.3 innings pitched. Buchholz did take a loss in Oakland back in July, but that was his first start against them after coming off the DL. Oakland hitters are just 8 for 33 (.242) against Buchholz in his career.
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Trevor Cahill gets the start for the Athletics. He's 15-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 25 starts this season. The righty faced the Red Sox twice last season and got roughed-up in both. Overall, in 10.3 innings pitched, he gave up 10 runs and 14 hits against Boston. David Ortiz (2-6), JD Drew (2-6), and Bill Hall (1-3) hit Cahill well in limited at-bats. Boston has scored 33 runs in their last four games, and they've won two straight road games where they are now 36-32. Boston is hitting .270 as a team in their last seven games, and with Buchholz pitching tremendously on the road, we’ll recommend playing the Red Sox in this game tonight.
DAVID CHAN
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Phillies @ Mets
PICK: Mets +1.5
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Roy Halladay is such a big road favorite against the Mets that you can get New York plus 1 1/2 runs at a plus price on the run line. That's the way I'm going in this matchup.
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Halladay has lived up to his lofty expectations for the Phillies going 17-10 with a 2.36 ERA. He could have had 20 wins by now if the Phillies gave him better support.
However, Halladay hasn't been in top form recently. He has a 4.29 ERA during his past three starts. The Phillies are 0-4 in Halladay's last four starts if laying 1 1/2 runs.
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Fatigue may be an issue with Halladay's recent troubles. He's thrown 221 innings this year. Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee believes Halladay's mechanics have been off. Either one isn't good, though, especially at this huge of a chalk price.
The Mets are a much better team at home than on the road. They are 39-25 at Citi Field. The Mets are expecting to have star shortstop Jose Reyes back in the lineup. He's been out with an oblique strain. Reyes is 7-for-15 with four extra-bast hits versus Halladay.
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Good-looking rookie Jenrry Mejia is slated to start for New York. He has the talent and confidence to pitch a strong game in a pitcher's park where the Phillies have struggled. Philadelphia has managed only seven runs in six games at Citi Field this season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -1½
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The Colorado Rockies are on one of their patented September rolls once again. The Rockies have won seven straight games and they are now 39-15 in their last 54 home games. The Diamondbacks are 30-64 in their last 94 road games and they are short handed because of an injury to Justin Upton. Jorge De La Rosa is on the hill for Colorado and that is good news for Colorado backers. De La Rosa has a 3.88 ERA at home this year and the Rockies are 17-4 in his last 21 home starts. Joe Saunders starts for Arizona and he has been shaky of late. The Diamondbacks are just 1-5 in his last 6 starts. The Rockies are 4-0 in De La Rosa's last 4 home starts against Arizona as well. The stats all point to a big win from the Rockies. Take the Rockies run line here.
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Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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Marlins at Nationals. Alex Sanabia goes for the Marlins, a guy with a 4.56 road ERA where opponents his .284 off him. He has a 5.82 ERA his last three starts. Washington starter John Lannan (7-6) has a winning record and has been throwing great, with a 2.75 ERA his last three starts, striking out 14 in 19 innings with only one walk. Play the Nationals.
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Houston Cougars -19.5
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This is a big revenge game for the Cougars who were ambushed by the Miners last season in El Paso 58-41 after the Cougars had defeated Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in back to back weeks. Running back Donald Buckram killed Houston last season as he ran for 268 yards and four touchdowns in the Miners win. Buckram has a sore knee and didn't play last week, but I do expect him to play in this game. I'm confident that the Houston defense will make the necessary adjustments to contain Buckram and for the Miners to have to throw the ball. I'm not high on UTEP's quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and forcing him to throw the ball is not what UTEP likes to do. Houston was 3-0 against the spread as a home favorite last season and the Cougs are 3-0 against the spread in revenge games under head coach Kevin Sumlin. This is a rare national tv home game for Houston and it will be a great showcase for quarterback Case Keenum and the powerful Houston offense. The average fan probably does not know how good Keenum has been. Since Kevin Sumlin took over as head coach after the 2007 season, Keenum has averaged 32.4 completions, 46.8 attempts, 391.6 passing yards and 3.3 touchdown passes per game. If Keenum carries on at that rate over the next 11 games, he would end the regular season as the all-time leader with 1,449 completions (topping the 1,403 of Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell), 17,531 yards (topping the 17,072 of Hawaii’s Timmy Chang) and 144 TD passes (topping Harrell’s 134). I expect a blowout tonight. Lay the points.
Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter is 21-9 in his 30 team starts this year. The Cardinals are 27-9 their last 36 Friday games. Carpenter is 113-48 in his last 161 starts. St. Louis is 5-1 in the last 6 starts made by Carpenter vs. the Braves and the Redbirds are 7-2 their last 9 games in Atlanta. Braves starter Mike Minor has allowed 11 runs in his last 15 innings of work. The Braves are 11-23 their last 34 games as underdogs and they are 3-7 vs. a team with a winning record. Atlanta is 1-4 their last 5 games and they are 2-5 as home underdogs.
Dan Bebe FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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CHC (+102) vs MIL
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I'm breaking a personal rule of making a play on a game involving Dave Bush, but I really think we have something here.
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Well, put simply, Carlos Zambrano is going to be one of the only players in this game giving 100%. It's that straightforward.
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Yes, guys on both teams are going to be taking mighty Casey-at-the-Bat-style cuts at the dish, but I happen to believe Zambrano feels he has the most to prove, and the result of the game means more to him than anyone else involved.
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On top of that, Bush is a career 2-9 against the Cubbies with a 5.47 ERA. He has not been pitching well, while Zambrano has been, and I feel like if indeed the Cubbies have the lead going into the late innings, we'll see significantly better bullpen arms from the Cubs side than we will from the Brewers side.
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But again, it all comes back to that one key edge that we have against this number.
James PatrickFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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West Virginia vs. Marshall
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After serving as Bobby Bowden's sacrificial lamb in last year's Gator Bowl, the Mountaineers are anxious to get back to work in 2010. Behind 17 returning starters, including an experienced offensive line that took 839 of 855 snaps in 2009, and multi-talented RB Noel Devine (1,465 rushing yards on 6.1 YPR), head coach Bill Stewart must have a great season to quiet the naysayers in Morgantown. Here is the perfect spot to start. Big Game James Patrick's Friday complimentary selection in College Football is West Virginia Mountaineers.
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Pirates vs. RedsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds return home to play their old rivals and starter Bailey has cashed winning tickets in (8) of his past (9) home starts. Pittsburgh has cashed just (6) of (24) against the Reds and Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection for Friday in Major League Baseball action is Cincinnati Reds.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play Houston over UTEP
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Bad stop for restructuring Miners who finished 2009 with a 4-8 mark and now return only 12 starters to fold, 5 on a smallish defense. Houston shows with 14 starters off a nice 10-4 campaign. Led by super QB Case Keenum (5,671) who threw 44 touches with a 70.3% completion mark, the Cougars should devastate the experienced defense of the Miners. Finally, Houston defeated the highly touted Red Raiders of Texas Tech, but then were upset by UTEP 58-41, so REVENGE is up big time for the Cougars. Lay the wood with Houston!
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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers are 9-0 at home vs a divisional foe that is behind them in the divisional standings and the Cubs are 0-6 when Carlos Zambrano starts on the road in the first game of a series. With Milwaukee a perfect 8-0 as a home favorite when they lost the last time they faced their opponent’s starting pitcher, we’ll take the Brewers.
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Play on: Milwaukee
BEN BURNSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
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Tonight's series opener features Brett Cecil taking on Scott Shields. Its true that the Rays have been tough against left-handed starters. That said, the Jays' starter is currently in much better form.
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Despite facing a trio of tough teams, (the Yankees, Rays and Yankees again) Cecil is 2-1 with an impressive 2.95 ERA and 1.219 WHIP over his last three starts. For the season, he's now 12-7 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.219 WHIP. The Jays are a profitable 15-9 (+8.7) in his starts.
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Shields hasn't been as good lately. Last time out, he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. He's got a 5.82 ERA and 1.529 WHIP his last three starts. For the season, he's just 12-12 as a starter, posting a 4.95 ERA and 1.409 WHIP.
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Shields' only start vs. the Jays this season was here at Toronto, on 8/7. He lasted only four innings and he gave up six home runs! The Jays won 17-11. The previous day, in his most recent home start vs. the Rays, Cecil tossed seven innings, outpitching Garza, and earning a 2-1 victory.
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Interestingly, the Rays are an awful 4-17 (-24.6) on Fridays. The Jays, on the other hand, are 15-6 (+12.4) in their Friday games. Consider Toronto